Poll: A white Christmas or not?

I'm all for a big snow on christmas. personally, i'd much rather have 6" on christmas evening than 2" when i open my presents. Now for the optimistic prediction:

IAD: total accumulation of 5.34" (yes, that specific)
As the name suggests... Dream of Snow

IAD: Total accumulation of 3.2"
DCA: Trace

I just read that the new EURO shows a SUB 965 MB low just off Atlantic City coast! I can't find updated EURO, can someone point me in the right direction? That is a historic type low pressure if it verifies.

I should also mention- the latest NOGAPS has the entire storm falling apart near the gulf of mexico without even a snowflake hitting the ground. Ouch.

Consistency is what you look for 4-5 days out and we have had it for the most part. Obviously the phasing is key and the Euro just showed a perfect scenario. That said, its extremely rare for a 970mb low to not have a name associated with it at our latitudes (ie Isabel/Earl/Rudolph/Kris Kringle :)) so its looking like 5 inches at IAD, 6.5 at DCA and 7.5 at BWI. Enough to make the snow lovers happy, enough to screw with holiday travel, but not enough to close the govt. for even a day. Typical solid snowstorm for the region.

Well actually BOTH the ECMWF and GFSx/MRF blow up a major storm. That said, the standard MRF has been successively weaker in virtually every 12/00Z run for the last three days. I am bothered by this because MRF was so very good with similar storms last year. Still, the worst case for snow fans seems to me we can pick up an inch over the met area on Saturday. The best case is--well, I don't want to jinx it...just check out the ECMWF and the MRF.

My prediction: Christmas Blizzard of 2010

Whoops I ment standard GFS has been successively weaker.

6-12" for IAD.

I think the latest euro is a little overdone but has the right idea . the storm will slow , but will bomb out off the coast of thr delmarva ,and be a 980mb low 0n sunday night, dumping 8-12 inches from the I-95 on east and north, with the eastern shore of Mar and DE on north through New Jersey,long island getting a monster christmas SNOWSTORM, YEAH baby

Rain!

RAINMAN GREG

It won't even snow.

Or we'll get 10".

I remember last year, the best year for snow on the eastern shore i can remember, and im 34, and live in southern DE. the days leading up to those storms the predictions for those snow totals were 3-6 , 4-8 inches then all of the sudden blizzard watches were posted, because the storm came from the south exited off hatteras and bombed. Granted that was a southern branch feature with gulf moisture and atlantic moisture. This storm is different but i still think it will be shunned far south by the huge block over hudson bay and turn up the coast just like a souther branch storm, and be very baraclinic, so to speak.. in other words , winterstorm watches posted on thursday afternoon for 8-12 inches of snow.

levyj4131 -

Do you do lottery numbers as well? (j/k)

18Z GFS not much different then 12Z GFS. check http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ecmwf-12/ec_sfc6-ani.html for comparison of surface prog comparison between 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF. The timing and intensity difference is major after 12Z DEC 25. Obviously, slower timing of the southern stream S/w means better phasing with the northern stream S/w. ECMWF is supposed to have a good rep, so it will interesting to see what happens. I voted for the GFS.

I must not be able to read the models properly because the 18z GFS looks to me like we are barely going to get a flake...

Seems to me like snow in the DC area almost always comes on the weekends. Why is the weather such a tease?

Dear Santa,

I've been unbelievably good this year. Please drop off at least 6 - 12 inches of the fluffy white stuff in the Falls Church/McLean/North Arlington environs.

Your friend,

Lizbeth

Model runs and Channel 9 now saying it looks more like a Dec. 26 storm...it's apparently being slowed down.

No i dont do lottery numbers ,but i do love the weather, and understand it for an ameature. I am a Pro site subscriber and follow the models everyday. The euro looks epic for east coast blizzard, the gfs is having feedback issues, and will correct back northwest in the next few runs im sure. Just an optomistic snow lover hoping for snow before the southeast ridge builds in january . We have to get it while the gettin is good ya know, lets go euro.....

As far as predictions go, my philosophy is no guts, no glory...

I'm thinking the storm center will pass to our south giving 6.5" of snow to DCA on its way out into the Atlantic.

Tonight Sue Palka seemed excited about the possibility of a bigger snow...

I say between 6.5" - 12.5" at KIAD.

NO snow on Xmas...sorry. Now they're saying maybe Sunday into Monday. How about no snow all winter? YES!!!