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Posted at 3:55 PM ET, 12/25/2010

Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather Advisory posted; accumulation possible tonight/tomorrow

By Capital Weather Gang

8:50 p.m. update: No changes to the forecast below as of now. Some new model data comes in over the next couple hours. We'll be reviewing that and will have a new post this evening (regardless of whether the forecast has changed or not).

From earlier: With the details of this developing storm yet to fully crystallize, one might be tempted to call this a "wait and see" situation. But we do have some confidence that there will be some snow tomorrow, possibly significant, and that conditions will generally deteriorate as you head northeast. A Winter Storm Warning has now been issued for tomorrow through tomorrow night, generally along and east of I-95 (including D.C. and Prince George's County), with areas to the west under a Winter Weather Advisory.

Use the information below to help you prepare for this storm, but note that we may need to adjust the accumulations in the map below in either direction based on this evening's model data and radar and satellite observations...

ACCUMULATION MAP AND TIMELINE

7 PM to 12 AM TONIGHT
Chance (40%) of light snow. 28-32.
12 AM to 6 AM SUN
Light snow likely, especially south and southeast. 26-30.
6 AM to 12 PM SUN
Occasional light snow, moderate south. 26-30.
12 PM to 6 PM SUN
Occasional light, possibly moderate snow, especially east. Becoming windy. 24-30.
6 PM to 12 PM
Snow ends SW to NE. Very windy. 23-27.

IMPACT FORECASTS

SchoolCast (for Mon., though most schools closed)
FedCast (for Monday) capitol-black.jpgcapitol-gray.jpgcapitol-gray.jpg

STORM FAQ

Where is the storm now?

Follow the progress of the storm on national radar, regional radar and satellite.

How confident are you in your forecast?

Confidence is lower than usual, but finally starting to increase if only a little. The storm is forecast to rapidly develop just as it is approaching the mid-Atlantic coast. Slight deviations in the rate of development and the storm track will likely have large implications for how much snow falls in the metro region.

Keep reading for more FAQs, and check back as we add to and update this post this afternoon into the evening. Expect a full update (new post) mid-to-late evening...

What are the chances of lower or higher amounts of snow than forecast?

There is both the significant possibility of lower and higher snowfall totals than forecast. If the storm develops more slowly and further to the east, we may get very little snow. If it develops rapidly and further west, we may get hammered with more than 6". Satellite and radar tomorrow will serve as useful tools in monitoring how the storm is evolving.

Where and when will conditions be the worst?

While some accumulation is possible tonight into the morning tomorrow, conditions will likely deteriorate to their worst tomorrow afternoon and evening, especially east and northeast of the District as the storm intensifies. During this time, heavy bands of snow may begin pivoting around the storm's center off the coast from east to west, blown around by increasingly strong winds and with falling temperatures.

Will the snow stick?

Yes...it will mostly stick due to cold weather of late.

How will travel be impacted?

Roads may well become slick when snow is falling. The snow tonight shouldn't be particularly heavy, so crews should be able to keep up with the snow on major roads. Although iciness on the roads is often a bigger threat at night than during the day. Airports may experience delays or brief closures tomorrow, especially if the snow falls moderate at times during the afternoon into evening. Widespread closures for beyond a few hours aren't anticipated in the D.C. area, but are possible at airports up the Northeast Corridor, especially tomorrow afternoon into the night, which would probably have significant impacts on flights scheduled to depart or land at National, Dulles and BWI.

What will conditions be like in other I-95 cities?

Snowfall rates and accumulations will most likely be higher, and possibly by a good amount, for the big cities to the northeast - Philly, NYC and Boston. In New York, 10-16 inches is forecast and in Boston 15-20" is predicted. Both cities are under blizzard warnings. To the south, Richmond looks to be in the same boat as the D.C. area, with a general 3-6" the best guess at the moment.

What are other forecast outlets saying?

Below is the latest we've heard. Though some are unconfirmed and may be in flux...

NWS 6-10"
NBC4 3-6"
WUSA-9 2-5"
ABC7/TBD 6-10"
AccuWeather 2-4"

Check back as we add to and update this post this afternoon into the evening. Expect a full update (new post) mid-to-late evening.

By Capital Weather Gang  | December 25, 2010; 3:55 PM ET
Categories:  Alerts, Forecasts, Latest, Updates, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Update: Still big range in Sunday snow potential
Next: Snow may be closer to 3" than 6"

Comments

What are the odds of the storm wobbling to the west and walloping Northern Virginia. I'm a snow lover and I'm CRAVING a good blizzard!!!!!!!!!!

THANK YOU CAPITAL WEATHER GANG!!!!!!!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

I am so impressed with you guys and your continued excellence in coverage- on the holidays, no less! I hope you are all having a wonderful day and are not working too much!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

I can't wait for the next GFS model run at 5:30!!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 4:01 PM | Report abuse

while i must say im annoyed that the storms are always just a little bit north-east of us, i can be happy with 3-6". Great job guys, thanks a lot.

Q: can i expect a brief late-night update? if so, when?

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 4:01 PM | Report abuse

thanks a lot guys. you're amazing.

Q: will there be a late-night update?

please reply,
SnowDreamer

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 4:02 PM | Report abuse

Q: What are the odds of the storm wobbling to the west and walloping Northern Virginia.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse

Q: What are the odds of the storm wobbling to the west and walloping Northern Virginia???

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 4:05 PM | Report abuse

Reads like a "normal" DC area snow event.
But with huge ???? factors.
Gotta ask; does the gang love this (what a challenge; all eyes on CWG this busy travel weekend) or are you all just wishing you could have had a stretch of 40 degrees & partly sunny boredom weather over the holiday so you could spend some time away from the blog & get some sleep?

I think Centreville VA will get 2-3 inches tomorrow (types the person with absolutely no meteorological training).

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 25, 2010 4:09 PM | Report abuse

SnowWhat!?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | December 25, 2010 4:09 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for your weather reports CWG, as much as they are stressing me out. I'm in NH and flying out of Boston to DCA tomorrow at 2:30 pm. Due to your reports I'm now on a standby list for the 9:30 am flight. Now I'm thinking I should just leave home now and try to standby at the airport tonight. I have a International flight to South America out of Dulles on early Monday morning that I must get back for (even though It might be delayed.) Thanks for any advice you can provide.

Posted by: scubagal | December 25, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse

SnowWhat!?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | December 25, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Looked at model soundings. It's going to be very cold aloft (around -10C to -15C at 850mb-700mb). Those cloud temperatures promote dendritic (tree like) snow crystals, which fluff with a lot of air. So the SNOW/PCPN ratios may be 15:1 or even 20:1. If so, the snowfalls in the DC metro area may be 4-8".

Posted by: ronbcust | December 25, 2010 4:12 PM | Report abuse

Q: What do you think about Wxrisk.com thinking we will be in the 8-11 range?

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=155900501123883&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717

This is the latest map DT posted at 4pm...

Keep it up CWG you guys are the best!!

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | December 25, 2010 4:15 PM | Report abuse

This am's snowfall made "white Christmas" come dream true for a few hours...

Posted by: eabgarnet | December 25, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse

"Thanks for your weather reports CWG, as much as they are stressing me out. I'm in NH and flying out of Boston to DCA tomorrow at 2:30 pm. Due to your reports I'm now on a standby list for the 9:30 am flight. Now I'm thinking I should just leave home now and try to standby at the airport tonight. I have a International flight to South America out of Dulles on early Monday morning that I must get back for (even though It might be delayed.) Thanks for any advice you can provide."

I am not Cap Weather, but I would suggest you get out of Boston NOW. Even it is not snowing there tomorrow, this storm will affect up and down East Coast. You add Holiday Rush -- get out of now. A blizzard warning has just been issued for New York. Once that word gets out, countless others will be rushing to their airports to try to get NOW.

Posted by: realclear | December 25, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

eabgarnet: my kids agree, even flurries count as a white Christmas. They are even willing to count the dirty little clump of snow left in our yard from the last snow.

Thanks so much to the CWG for constantly updating during the holiday, and thanks to their families for letting them share their time with us.

Now we have to start thinking about tomorrow's travel. We were to drive from Baltimore to about an hour northwest of Philly.

Posted by: weatherwatcher1 | December 25, 2010 4:27 PM | Report abuse

Q: Have you seen the latest 18z Nam and 18z SREF? If so would that tend to make you think we might be more in the 6+ ?

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | December 25, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

After last winter, I will hate snow for the rest of my life.

Posted by: fakedude2 | December 25, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

BTW, If you're looking for TV weather coverage, I'd recommend ch. 7. Steve Rudin is their weekend weatherman and he always does a good job. I'll be watching his forecast tonight.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

@scubagal I agree with realclear; I'd at least get a reservation for Sunday AM. People that don't listen to details will be running for the exits. :-)

@skinsforever that's an awful narrow 8-11 band at the Fairfax border.... Does seem strange.

Posted by: BoaterVA | December 25, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

@skinsforever

Yeah wxrisk's map seems off to me as well. It has accumulating snow all the way out into the ohio valley almost. There's no way this storm gets there.

However, having said that, I am starting to believe that 3-6 will be the low range for us. I think by mere glance at the radar, the way this storms is already beginning to hug the coast with the low not even across florida yet, right now I'm seeing a good six inches easy. Good call by the NWS. I forsee them extending the warning out west, at least past howard county where I am.

Posted by: bbirnbau | December 25, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

@skinsforever

That WXRisk map clarifies our travel plans, we're supposed to leave in the morning to drive to High Point, NC to visit my mom. That map puts our entire route in the 8-11" range....yikes! If it verifies, looks like we may just have to hunker down at home until at least Monday.....

Posted by: ftwash | December 25, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

Hi, CWG - you are still awesome! Just curious, why is the NWS warning of 6-10" when you are saying 3-6"? Do the warnings just give the maximum possible, rather than likely amounts?

Oh, how quickly I got over last year and started pining for LOTS of snow again :-)

Thanks!

Posted by: paperball | December 25, 2010 4:46 PM | Report abuse

Folks--at least read the entire post before asking questions that are answered in the post itself! (Like, when will it start, when will you update again, etc.). And if your question isn't answered right away, don't just keep asking it! Honestly, CWG, I don't know how you keep from letting rip occasionally, and on a holiday too!

Posted by: petworthlad | December 25, 2010 4:53 PM | Report abuse

Here in Williamsburg, VA, it's been snowing the past 2+ hours. It's gotten significantly heavier in the past 30 minutes and is sticking well on all grassy surfaces, though temps are still just over freezing. Curious if the early start bodes well for higher totals?

Posted by: Craemmir | December 25, 2010 4:53 PM | Report abuse

BobMiller2, WUSA9 all the way...I LOVE Tom Sater and so glad he's back on air...and if this thing really gets big...Topper (or Howard) might be comin in!

By the way, 18Z GFS is not so favorable for sig. amounts =/

Posted by: HomantheSnowman | December 25, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

NWS is no longer saying 'about 3"'. Now they're saying 6-10". Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy! And Crownsville looks to be right about on your 3-6"/6-12" line. Oh boy! :D I love snow. I'll pack an overnight bag in case I have to sleep at work tomorrow night, in DC. It'd be worth it.

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

I cant read the updates anymore...too nervous!! Radar looks promising tho..water vapor loop is amazing...soo I'm gonna stop following the models at this point and just watch mother nature take ITS course.......lets hope it hugs the coast! I see some cold tops already on the enhanced imagery just starting to pop up off the coast of Ga.SC...HUG THE COAST 6 TO 12!!

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

Great coverage as usual CWG. Please clarify: Why do you say NWS has us at 3" yet the Winter Storm Warning states 6"-10"?

Posted by: caphillse | December 25, 2010 4:58 PM | Report abuse

@caphillse
that might be from earlier in the afternoon,
when NWS was going with 3 or 4" in DC itself.
Their estimate is higher now for DC, but not by much. 4 to 6" is the general range they now seem to have for DC.

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 5:05 PM | Report abuse

Pins and needles... We are right on the edge on that map between the 6-12 and 3-6 down here in SoMD. Shift 50 miles to the west... Come on! :)

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 5:09 PM | Report abuse

Been snowing in lower Calvert County since 4pm and is sticking to the side roads.

Posted by: joann20657 | December 25, 2010 5:12 PM | Report abuse

and besides, with the uncertainty mentioned by both CWG and NWS, it seems there is a forecast range of 2"-8" for DC itself. Look at NWS Sterling page and you will see that, according to their map, one can travel 15 miles and go from an 4-inch accumulation to 8-inch accumulation. With even the slightest shift in the track, or slightest increase/decrease in the intensity of the low between NC and the Delmarva, there will be very different amounts in DC. I'm no expet, but this is what it seems from what CWG and NWS have been saying.

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 5:12 PM | Report abuse

oops...typo...ex-pert. Not pet!

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 5:14 PM | Report abuse

oops..expert that is...

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 5:16 PM | Report abuse

So much for global warming

Posted by: tonyjm | December 25, 2010 5:18 PM | Report abuse

So what kind of scotch is everyone drinking while waiting on every miniscule update? Well, I guess a few may not be drinking scotch... so I will try not to be such an alcoholist and accept all kinds. ;-)

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 5:18 PM | Report abuse

Blizzard warnings have been hoisted from NYC metro to Boston, and watches now in effect up to coastal Maine. Local forecasters in Boston, where I am for the holidays, are going for a solid 15-20 inch snowfall from NYC to Boston, with a few places possibly receiving more depending on where heaviest snowbands set up.

I am hoping things work out so that DC gets into the heavy snow as well!
-- Andrew, CWG

Posted by: afreedma | December 25, 2010 5:19 PM | Report abuse

uggh...this is a tough forecast. i've been watching these storms for several years now and i'm not sold yet on the dc metro area for a big snow. i don't like being this close. the water vapor loop looks better than the radar (even though i know the coastal isn't cranking yet). i dont' see how this will be like jan 2000 where the storm went due north. it's gonna be a close call, but right now, i agree with all the mets that say that the eastern sections are the place to be. i wouldn't be surprised if this is only a 2-4 inch event for this area. almost all the models have us on the fringe.

Posted by: swishjobs | December 25, 2010 5:23 PM | Report abuse

Merry Christmas, CWG...thanks for keeping tabs.

Agreed...lots of uncertainty with this one. Doesn't help that the models have been waffling back and forth.

Glad I took the train instead of flying. Still, hoping DC total leans toward the low end...wouldn't like for Metro to be "underground only" on Monday.

Posted by: ajfroggie | December 25, 2010 5:24 PM | Report abuse

It's starting to stick here in Lynchburg, though I doubt we're going to get very much compared to Roanoke and points west such as Blacksburg, which are in higher elevations. Then again, I don't think this storm will be anything like what walloped D.C. in December 2009 or this past February, when I resided in Prince William County.

Posted by: VPaterno | December 25, 2010 5:25 PM | Report abuse

@ somdcommuter, no scotch here. I'm on a cab sauv-merlot-petit verdot-syrah blend. Fresh out of egg nog!

--AA County

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 5:26 PM | Report abuse

CWG- What is the chance that the NWS extends that winter storm warning to fairfax?

Posted by: cubscapsfan | December 25, 2010 5:26 PM | Report abuse

What's the difference between "waffling" (courtesy of ajfroggie) and "wobbling" (courtesy of BobMiller2)? I'm confused.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 5:27 PM | Report abuse

Blizzard Warning now up for NYC, LI, Southern CT, Rhode Island, Metro Boston

some snow start times from the NWS:
Boston: 4pm tomorrow
Hartford, CT: 3pm
New Haven, CT: 9am (notice difference with Hartford which is just 40 miles away to the north)
NYC: 9am
Baltimore: 3am

If you are in New England and really need to get back here, you might need to leave now. There are no warnings west of Harrisburg if you travel inland. But the NYC blizzard warning extends west into Bergen County, New Jersey if you are planning Tappan Zee to 287 to 78. The rest of New Jersey is under the same WS warning as DC and points east.

The only way to really dodge this thing tomorrow would be Mass Pike West to Albany to I-88 in Binghamton to I-81 to Harrisburg, PA. Even then, Binghamton's supposed to get 1-3 inches, Harrisburg 4-8.

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 5:30 PM | Report abuse

CWG- What is the chance that the NWS extends that winter storm warning to fairfax?

Posted by: cubscapsfan
_______________________
We here is central Maryland where it's all doom and gloom really don't care about fairfax. Besides, please clarify - do you mean Fairfax County, Fairfax, and/or Fairfax City?

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 5:30 PM | Report abuse

somdcommuter, I'm having heavily spiked eggnog. 'Tis the season.....

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 5:32 PM | Report abuse

Seriously WaPo, how many reports and how much time does it take to ban someone for constant harassment of a blog?

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | December 25, 2010 5:32 PM | Report abuse

The only way to really dodge this thing tomorrow would be Mass Pike West to Albany to I-88 in Binghamton to I-81 to Harrisburg, PA. Even then, Binghamton's supposed to get 1-3 inches, Harrisburg 4-8.

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 5:30 PM | Report abuse
__________________________
Or, you could drive clear out to Chicago and come back via Memphis.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 5:34 PM | Report abuse

Red wine is up there with scotch, Chickenlady. I switch between depending on the evening and the mood. ;)

Now where is the latest GFS? lol

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 5:34 PM | Report abuse

Uh, it is Christmas Joe Greene, don't think that WP has someone at beck and call to block posters on a weather blog every minute.

Posted by: amorris525 | December 25, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

"I am hoping things work out so that DC gets into the heavy snow as well!"

Noooo, take that back!

- Ray

Posted by: rmcazz | December 25, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

Red wine and spiked egg nog are both good for this kind of thing (really - alcohol of any sort is a step up from just hitting refresh and waiting on the GFS run coming in)...

lol

Cheers!

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

"I am hoping things work out so that DC gets into the heavy snow as well!"

Noooo, take that back!

- Ray

Posted by: rmcazz | December 25, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse
____________________________
If you want to take it back, then why did you write it in the first place??

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 5:41 PM | Report abuse

Any forecast of amounts, such as those referred to above from Wxrisk.com, without some estimate or statement of uncertainty (like CWG) should, in my humble opinion, not be taken seriously.

An adjustment to the storm track by as little as 25 mi can mean the difference between falling in the 6-12" category to much lower storm totals

Amounts cited above by NWS should also not be considered in isolation of it's probabilistic assessments (from HPC). See

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_composite.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html


It's probably time to stop obsessing about the zigs and zags of models. Rather keep your eyes glued to the radar/satellite and then start looking out the window and enjoy (fear) the exciting (scary) ride.

As I've described in the paper I did on the Jan 24th, 2000 "Surprise Snowstorm" a major failing on the part of the NWS and just about all forecasters was near total reliance on models rather than just paying attention to what's out there at the moment. I'm confident that lesson has been learned.

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 5:41 PM | Report abuse

@ somdcommuter, alcohol is not incompatible with wearing out the refresh key LOL

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 5:42 PM | Report abuse

Cheers!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 5:43 PM | Report abuse

@cubscapsfan

Given this afternoon's GFS run has come in slightly east of the morning run with the heaviest precip, probably won't see the Winter Storm Warning extended westward unless this evening's models tell a different story. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 5:43 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the advice. Flights are full tonight and tomorrow morning, so I'm going to take an overnight train tonight from Boston back to DC.

I second ray in saying "take that back!" I still have my monday flight, which I would like to be able to depart on. Merry Christmas!

Posted by: scubagal | December 25, 2010 5:43 PM | Report abuse

No, they are definitely not mutually exclusive. :)

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 5:44 PM | Report abuse

It's sticking beautifully in St Mary's County and visibility is really low (and I don't just mean because it's dark) out my living room window. Wondering about the planned Boxing Day bacchanalia in Fairfax tomorrow...

Posted by: jenniej | December 25, 2010 5:45 PM | Report abuse

@rpcv84 actually, you can go even further west through Elmira, State College (say hi to Bastardi and friends),and Altoona, and then come into the DC area through Hagerstown

...or can take chances with Amtrak

anyone who thinks they're getting here tomorrow from the Boston area is going to have to get creative

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 5:45 PM | Report abuse

I have a drive up to Northern NJ. Trying to decide the best time to leave with the roads. Any recommendations from anyone? I'm thinking like leaving DC around 8AM. Not too early so the little sun will be up and its not dark but still early enough to avoid the bulk of the snow. Hope I-95 is still clear by then.

Posted by: derrickdew | December 25, 2010 5:45 PM | Report abuse

Light snow here in Fredericksburg; reports by family of snow extending up to Goldvein in Faquier county. Light..temps just above freezing.. no major impact.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 5:49 PM | Report abuse

I'm sitting here in front of the back window, with the little outside light on, sipping wine and WAITING. Clicking and sipping and waiting. Boy, I wonder if it's already snowing in Shady Side, where I was still living until 9 days ago?

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 5:49 PM | Report abuse

@rpcv84 actually, you can go even further west through Elmira, State College (say hi to Bastardi and friends),and Altoona, and then come into the DC area through Hagerstown

...or can take chances with Amtrak

anyone who thinks they're getting here tomorrow from the Boston area is going to have to get creative

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 5:45 PM | Report abuse
_______________________________
You have a good point I still think it's best to take the northern route through Montreal and points west to Vancouver, come down the Pacific Coast Highway and then swing east on I-10 to Jacksonville and then north back home. With a little eggnog and scotch, you can do it!! Cheers!!

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 5:49 PM | Report abuse

CWG thanks for everything you guys kick A$$ compared to everyone else in area....

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | December 25, 2010 5:50 PM | Report abuse

TGT11, I read your post and understand. But I am still going to leave early tomorrow and plan to get through 287 to 78 with just light-moderate initial snow. I think there's enough leftover salt and warning time to make that trip feasible mid morning.

But I will check the radar in the AM and take the Mass Pike out as you suggested if the snow is making an early run north. Another option is 84 to Scranton to pick up 81. Worst case is drive to Chicago and back via Memphis.

Posted by: eric654 | December 25, 2010 5:51 PM | Report abuse

I have a drive up to Northern NJ. Trying to decide the best time to leave with the roads. Any recommendations from anyone? I'm thinking like leaving DC around 8AM. Not too early so the little sun will be up and its not dark but still early enough to avoid the bulk of the snow. Hope I-95 is still clear by then.

Posted by: derrickdew | December 25, 2010 5:45 PM | Report abuse
______________________________
I agree with your plan - it's rationale, sensible, and doable. If I were you I would proceed as planned. Cheers, and remember the spiked eggnog and scotch!

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Any chance DC area (Mont Co, PG etc) wake up tomorrow 7-8 AM to see 2-3 inches on ground and roads with 1 inch? I'm just getting the feeling even if it snows "lightly" in DC begining at 10PM tonight, we could have a solid 2-3 inches on the ground by 8 AM. It just seems the snow is pretty close in Fredericksburg.

Posted by: derrickdew | December 25, 2010 5:57 PM | Report abuse

To all of you going on about wanting a huge storm, why don't you stop and think about all the people flying back to the DC area on Sunday and Monday?

Thank you.

Posted by: enstage | December 25, 2010 6:01 PM | Report abuse

At least the spiked egg nog and scotch will keep them warm buried in the snow! lol

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 6:01 PM | Report abuse

Excited here in Woodbridge...it's okay if we get nothing in the end..it's still fun waiting/anticipating with my family...and having some spiked eggnog! Thanks again CWG!

Posted by: lisajulia | December 25, 2010 6:03 PM | Report abuse

Help!! We're experiencing a phenomenon in central Maryland. It's thunderstorming and the winds have shifted to the southwest at 40 mph. My outside thermometer is reading a balmy 75 degrees Fahrenheit. And, I don't know how, but my heat pump kicked over to air conditioning. Are we caught up in some sort of a trough line with vertical wind shear causing an overflow of warm air downward? Please explain.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 6:04 PM | Report abuse

We are thinking of them, enstage. They will be warm and comfy on a nice airport cot. (sticks tongue out...) ;-)

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 6:05 PM | Report abuse

There's no such thing as spiked eggnog. It's an alcoholic beverage to start with. That garbage in the dairy aisle doesn't count.

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | December 25, 2010 6:08 PM | Report abuse

If anyone's interested, I can provide GPS coordinates to try and solve this weather mystery. It's so warm and humid here, my wife just put on her bikini. Yikes, that horrible white skin sans soleil!! (don't tell her I said that...)

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 6:09 PM | Report abuse

Supposed to take the 9:30am BoltBus to NYC Sunday... Will this be early enough to be up there for the real whallop??? Supposed to see American Idiot Sunday night, am I an idiot for attempting this journey?

Posted by: tidalwave1 | December 25, 2010 6:10 PM | Report abuse

True, Joe. Does anyone actually drink it... without?

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Fiancee and I bought our first house three weeks ago, with an electric furnace and aerial power lines -- here's hoping they hold up. If they don't, we've got a fireplace and plenty of scotch & bourbon. Good luck to all!

Posted by: random-adam | December 25, 2010 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Supposed to take the 9:30am BoltBus to NYC Sunday... Will this be early enough to be up there for the real whallop??? Supposed to see American Idiot Sunday night, am I an idiot for attempting this journey?

Posted by: tidalwave1 | December 25, 2010 6:10 PM | Report abuse
-----------------------
I think you answered that question yourself. And the Bolt Bus? You can take Peter Pan for $1.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 6:12 PM | Report abuse

True, TheJoeGreene. Ours is always homemade, but I guess I used the term 'spiked' to bring the point home to anyone unfamiliar. But you are correct that I was incorrect to describe it that way (the store bought stuff is another thing altogether- don't touch the stuff).

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 6:14 PM | Report abuse

Just in case, let the names begin! How about

Snowpotheosis?

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | December 25, 2010 6:14 PM | Report abuse

Fiancee and I bought our first house three weeks ago, with an electric furnace and aerial power lines -- here's hoping they hold up. If they don't, we've got a fireplace and plenty of scotch & bourbon. Good luck to all!

Posted by: random-adam | December 25, 2010 6:12 PM | Report abuse
_-------------------------
I'm praying you make it. Do you have plenty of bread, milk, and toilet paper?

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 6:15 PM | Report abuse

Just in case, let the names begin! How about

Snowpotheosis?

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | December 25, 2010 6:14 PM | Report abuse
__________________________________
You win. Hands down. Case closed. End of story. Got any t-shirts made yet?

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 6:18 PM | Report abuse

"Thanks for the advice. Flights are full tonight and tomorrow morning, so I'm going to take an overnight train tonight from Boston back to DC.

I second ray in saying "take that back!" I still have my monday flight, which I would like to be able to depart on. Merry Christmas!

Posted by: scubagal | December 25, 2010 5:43 PM | Report abuse "
--------------------------------
Same game plan, Scubagal. Changed my reservations this AM when things looked bad. South Station o BWI, to pick up the car, and drive back to Crystal City before things pick up much in the AM. Should be kind of cool going through delaware and maryland when the early snow starts.

Posted by: jca-CrystalCity | December 25, 2010 6:21 PM | Report abuse

enstage, you do know that people fly in and out of dc every day, right?

Posted by: amorris525 | December 25, 2010 6:23 PM | Report abuse

The Official Dupont Circle Snowball Fight is back in business - with the next event set for Sunday at 4pm! Thanks to the CWG for keeping us so well informed about the impending storm in recent days, considering the complexity of the situation! Event details are here: bit.ly/fFb1QF

Posted by: mlipin | December 25, 2010 6:26 PM | Report abuse

enstage, you do know that people fly in and out of dc every day, right?

Posted by: amorris525 | December 25, 2010 6:23 PM | Report abuse
___________________________
amorris525: You mean to tell me that DCA is open every day - i.e., 7 days a week? Everyone knows it's closed on Sundays and holidays!! Sheesh!

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 6:26 PM | Report abuse

oops, here's the full link to the snowball event: http://bit.ly/fFb1QF

Posted by: mlipin | December 25, 2010 6:28 PM | Report abuse

Given that Reagan National is located in Virginia, only a very few people fly in and out of DC proper. ;-)

I'll have to check on those t-shirts!

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | December 25, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

What about the name: Snowpocalypse: Part Dew

Posted by: Ayrwulf | December 25, 2010 6:32 PM | Report abuse

I am long time reader, first time poster, all time snow lover, voting for:

Snowpothesis

Nothing else will do.

Posted by: NaomiHB | December 25, 2010 6:33 PM | Report abuse

enstage, there are too many people in DC already. Maybe some of them will stay away an extra few hours, give the rest of us a brief respite of lower population density. Hmph.

I checked in with Tracy's Landing 10 min ago, nothing there yet (southern Anne Arundel)

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 6:35 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the updates, CWG.

Need some advice. Planned on leaving tomorrow morning for a trip down I-95 (Destination: South Carolina.) Planned to get about halfway tomorrow. Have to be in Charleston Monday afternoon.

When should we leave? What time does the storm appear to be dumping the heaviest snow along the I-95 corridor, between DC and Raleigh?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks, CWG.

Posted by: LenoreG | December 25, 2010 6:35 PM | Report abuse

Arrrg, missing the first real storm of the season as I'm visiting family in Ohio. Due to fly back Monday early afternoon. I'm thinking, based on the current timeline, that that flight should be okay? It is into IAD, direct, so I'd think that if the snow stops Sunday night runways should be opening back up by then. Here's hoping!

Posted by: jahutch | December 25, 2010 6:38 PM | Report abuse

I've chnaged my train back from NYC to tonight just in case DC gets clobbered in the morning and my car is stuck on the snow emergency routes and gets a $250 ticket! As someone said when DC sees white the government sees GREEN with the tow fees!

Posted by: britinva | December 25, 2010 6:44 PM | Report abuse

I've chnaged my train back from NYC to tonight just in case DC gets clobbered in the morning and my car is stuck on the snow emergency routes and gets a $250 ticket! As someone said when DC sees white the government sees GREEN with the tow fees!

Posted by: britinva | December 25, 2010 6:44 PM | Report abuse

My family is visiting and, god bless 'em, need to make it out of town this weekend to go home. :) Brother already re-booked his flight for early tomorrow morning with hope of missing the crush. Dad flies out Monday afternoon, in time for me to work Monday night, so I hope SURELY flights will be leaving again by then? How long does it take for DCA to get rolling after the snow stops? I can't leave my poor husband to entertain my father all Monday night .... (I kid, I kid).

Posted by: esmerelda123 | December 25, 2010 6:46 PM | Report abuse

Arrrg, missing the first real storm of the season as I'm visiting family in Ohio. Due to fly back Monday early afternoon. I'm thinking, based on the current timeline, that that flight should be okay? It is into IAD, direct, so I'd think that if the snow stops Sunday night runways should be opening back up by then. Here's hoping!

Posted by: jahutch | December 25, 2010 6:38 PM | Report abuse
_________________________
I encourage you to take a Xanax if the anxiety becomes to much for you.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 6:46 PM | Report abuse

I've chnaged my train back from NYC to tonight just in case DC gets clobbered in the morning and my car is stuck on the snow emergency routes and gets a $250 ticket! As someone said when DC sees white the government sees GREEN with the tow fees!

Posted by: britinva | December 25, 2010 6:44 PM | Report abuse
____________________________
Thanks God! We'll be so glad to have you home safe and sound.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 6:49 PM | Report abuse

@rpcv84

You're going to be right on the border in terms of timing. Probably a game-time decision tomorrow morning. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 6:50 PM | Report abuse

Monday flights shouldn't be impacted by snow, but by wind, could have a very bumpy approach, and maybe a go around or two, but you should make it

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 6:53 PM | Report abuse

Couldn't Dan, or someone else, actually pay attention to rpcv84's constant harassment of people here and ban the worthless piece of filth?

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | December 25, 2010 6:53 PM | Report abuse

rpcv84 you are pathetic. Maybe some time out of your basement would make you less of a jerk to people who have genuine concerns about thier situations over the next couple of days during a busy travel weekend. Go someplace else.

Posted by: barryg2 | December 25, 2010 6:53 PM | Report abuse

Monday flights shouldn't be impacted by snow, but by wind, could have a very bumpy approach, and maybe a go around or two, but you should make it

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 6:53 PM | Report abuse
_________________________________
Should?? I've got my money riding on a more positive "will!!"

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 6:56 PM | Report abuse

can i ask for a suggestion? my flight is taking off tomorrow at 4.15pm to Lax from Dulles. Any chance that i could make it for you? maybe the snow will not be accumlated that much at that time?

Posted by: pomata24 | December 25, 2010 6:56 PM | Report abuse

...and next weekend, it's revenge of the snow haters!

New Years Day
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50s

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 6:57 PM | Report abuse

ok so its snowing light, but hard here in madison va, but nota on the radar ?? most times its showing on radar, but not falling ?? winter weather is hard to understand at times.

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 25, 2010 7:01 PM | Report abuse

ok so its snowing light, but hard here in madison va, but nota on the radar ?? most times its showing on radar, but not falling ?? winter weather is hard to understand at times.

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 25, 2010 7:01 PM | Report abuse
________________________________
Yes, it is. About as complex as which came first, the chicken or the egg!!

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 7:03 PM | Report abuse

@pomata24, IAD typically does better in the snow than DCA because it has 3 main runways vs. 1

Issue will be keeping the blowing snow off the runway and time needed to de-ice you, my best guess is that you will be delayed

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 7:06 PM | Report abuse

I'm a Mom to a little girl...so i make both spiked for her and un-spiked for me and the hubby =)...am i the only one who keeps hitting refresh way more than i know i should?! Maybe b/c i grew up in Boston and remember the Blizzard of '78 like it was yesterday! Plus my daughter really loves to go sledding so hopefully we get a little something.

Posted by: lisajulia | December 25, 2010 7:10 PM | Report abuse

Anyone who doesn't get the humor of rcpv84 really needs to relax. Give me dry humor and a wet qpf anyday!

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | December 25, 2010 7:10 PM | Report abuse

UPDATE!! I'm perched here in front of my bay window in HoCo and I see nothing except for the lingering thunderstorm (mystery phenomenon) I wrote about earlier and my neighbor lady who deliberately dropped a tissue on the sidewalk. Still dark, increasingly chilly (though my air conditioner is still on), a few cloud moving in from the NE, and my authentic eggnog (not store bought stuff) in my brandy snifter right next to me. If I stay here, do you think I'll be ok? I've got plenty of canned goods, soups, bread, milk, and toilet paper!! Que sera, sera.

Cheers - time to get my little lady out of her bikini and hit the roads while I can still use 2WD!! Best of luck to all of you. Go Snowpotheosis!! Yeah!!

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 7:11 PM | Report abuse

Good grief...that should be UN-SPIKED for the 8yr old. Mommy's already had too much!

Posted by: lisajulia | December 25, 2010 7:12 PM | Report abuse

i was going to say lol

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 25, 2010 7:14 PM | Report abuse

Rpcv84 I appreciate your sarcasm...exactly what this board needs...

Btw, it looks like a tornado is forming in falls church....nuts

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | December 25, 2010 7:14 PM | Report abuse

Wait - do you mean rpcv84 is just being sarcastic? Doh, I should have caught that...


*snicker*

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 7:15 PM | Report abuse

@ lisajulia, lol, I was gonna SAY....

And @asymptoticUnltd, and @rpcv84, agree. Some people need to spike their eggnog a little more. JMHO.

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 7:16 PM | Report abuse

Yo, PSA to everyone given the blizzard warnings for Boston, Newark, NY etc.:

If there's not an emergency (e.g. you're bleeding to death, you had a heart attack), don't try to drive during a blizzard. Just don't. Getting back home is not a sufficient reason; not even getting to your job. Your life is more important than either of those.

Take it from the NWS with their blizzard warning for New York:
"DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE."

Posted by: KBurchfiel | December 25, 2010 7:18 PM | Report abuse

That was hilarious. I looked at your first post and went "spiked eggnog for the 8 year old" wait, what???

Posted by: deeeeeep18 | December 25, 2010 7:19 PM | Report abuse

Is it possible that the people reporting snow in Fredsbg & Calvert Co et al are seeing something unrelated to the Big One we're all waiting for? Given that the NWS warning doesn't even start until 4 AM for the area including Anne Arundel, which is the very next thing north of Calvert?

(not a weather geek ... I don't understand the maps and stuff ... I just hang out here for the cameraderie with other snow-adrenaline junkies, and updates from those who DO understand it!)

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 7:23 PM | Report abuse

Looking for suggestions... I'm due to fly into IAD at 4pm Sunday and then headed to Alexandria... should I try for it or rebook for later in the week?

Posted by: iz2224 | December 25, 2010 7:26 PM | Report abuse

Piers corbyn predicted snow for this period ages ago see
Www.weather action.com/displayarticle.asp?a=286&c=5

The mouth of the Humber estuary in England has frozen for the first time since 1963.

Posted by: PrimrosePath | December 25, 2010 7:27 PM | Report abuse

Nice job with the coverage on the holidays, guys! Really appreciate it :)

Posted by: vwallace | December 25, 2010 7:28 PM | Report abuse

@iz2224

Unfortunately, 4 p.m. may potentially be the worst of it around here. I don't know if I'd give up yet. With the forecast uncertainty, maybe you can see if anything has changed with respect to the forecast come morning? -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 7:29 PM | Report abuse

iz2224, hi there. You really may have some problems at that time, landing at DCA. 6" is possible by that late in the afternoon.. serious delays could be in place. Perhaps even some closures. If not costly or otherwise inconvenient, booking for Tuesday onward would be ideal!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 7:30 PM | Report abuse

Rpcv84 I appreciate your sarcasm...exactly what this board needs...

Btw, it looks like a tornado is forming in falls church....nuts

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | December 25, 2010 7:14 PM | Report abuse
_______________________________
While I've really got to go, I'm so glad that some else is experiencing a weather phenomenon. Right now, the clouds are swarming, the winds are whipping, the rain is pounding, and according to the Saffer-Simpson index it's climbing toward a cat 1 hurricane. All this on the heels of a major blizzard. I'm dumbfounded. Could it be an inverse vortex contributing to an upward flow of moist Gulf air circumventing a downward spiral of Siberian frozen fog-laden air? I'm trying to make sense of all this CWG - please send someone to Columbia stat!! A Nobel prize for solving this could be in the offing - especially if Obama gets a peace prize for not even having brought any peace!!

I'm out of here. Onward and upward. May the higher power protect us all throughout the impending armageddon of Snowpotheosis!!

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 7:31 PM | Report abuse

Bernie Rayno is going Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs over this thing. Thought one of the accuweather people was going to have to step in and sedate him during the video.

But good news snow haters is that he kept saying Philly, NY, Boston, we're practically being forgotten compared to the cities further north with this thing. Reminds me a little of the April Fool's storm in '97, we got a few flakes, Boston got a few feet.

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 7:32 PM | Report abuse

I'm right there with you..chicken lady. Even though I am considering meteorology as a study, I prefer to wait for the interpretation from those who do understand the things that I can not possibly understand.

IAD is now in a cold and dry state: as of 7:30 (by my IPAD's clock) it is 32F according to my (extremely accurate) porch thermometer. No sign of snow. I will be updating time to time in order to satisfy my need to feel as though somebody cares.

P.S. I can see IAD control tower from my house, I'd be shocked if the conditions were not effectively identical.

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 7:33 PM | Report abuse

we have travelled to Philly from DC and have plans to travel further north and west ... lehigh Valley ... Tomorrow. CWG, please help us. We are hearing everything from 2-4 to 12 -18 for tomorrow. what can we really expect, and at what time of day? there is no one here who does what CWG does! thanks, CNMD

Posted by: CarefulNervousMotherDriving | December 25, 2010 7:40 PM | Report abuse

gsitting ... sipping ... clicking ... waiting for that next update post! *sigh*

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 7:41 PM | Report abuse

We are seeing flurries in Chester with a couple aliens...any idea how long the aliens will last with the low pressure?

(CWG you rock, just trying to lighten up the board)

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | December 25, 2010 7:41 PM | Report abuse

With the latest GFS, it looks like the chances of the storm wobbling west and us getting walloped have significantly diminished. Oh how I wish I was in New York, Philly or Boston... after last winter, I thought I'd never want to see snow again, but here I am now, so I guess I was wrong. When I woke up this morning to see that DC was in the 10 - 16 or even 18 inch range, I thought it was a Christmas miracle, but when I got home from church this morning and saw the GFS, I lost hope. It would take a true Christmas miracle for us to get what I was hoping for.

P.S. - ABC 7 has the best winter weather coverage, NOT channel 9!!!!!!!!!!!

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 7:44 PM | Report abuse

@rpcv84 - there is no real difference between a waffle and a wobble. If one was to say "the storm took a slight westerly wobble, it would mean the same thing as "the storm moved a tad bit west." Does that answer your question?

Bob Miller

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse

Me again!! Oh, no. Now we have aliens (per SkinsForever22044)???? Hurricanes, thunderstorms, frozen fog-laden air, flurries, inverse vortices, Snowpotheosis churning up the Atlantic, mothers driving to Lehigh valley in 12-18" of snow, people giving 8 year olds spiked store bought eggnog, ALIENS, bizarre flakes of something in Calvert Co, and much, much more - all this on Christmas!! I can't handle this. I'm an absolute nervous wreck. And, my gal's still in her bikini with the temps dropping!! Air conditioning still on and I've got a thermal t-shirt on now in the house. CWG, help me please. All kidding aside - SEND SOMEONE NOW!!!

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 7:49 PM | Report abuse

OK, who is this rpcv84???? They have commented like 20 times and whoever they are, they have a real problem with sarcasm. They need to understand that this is a serious storm and it's no laughing matter.

Bob Miller

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 7:54 PM | Report abuse

rpcv84 what is the alien drop per hour? I heard the latest gfkz50 radar said 1.4 per hour but with the arctic pull and medium pressure rising we could see an ET phen....

But I am worried if I got a ticket for parking in a handicap spot, if their is 12" will they give me a double ticket.

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | December 25, 2010 7:56 PM | Report abuse

Nah. People here are defending the personal attacks that rpcv84 has been committing all day as mere sarcasm. They deserve the piece of trash.

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | December 25, 2010 7:56 PM | Report abuse

CarefulNervousMotherDriving - North and west of DC is a good direction if wanting less snow than DC. Currently we have DC in the 3-6" range. North and west of the city in the 1-4" range. If you can drive carefully in 1-4" of snow (accumulating relatively slowly from approx 6am to 6pm tomorrow... you likely can make the trip without much problem!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 7:57 PM | Report abuse

i'm going to be driving to DC from Ohio - taking 76 through PA and then 70 through MD. if i leave my house at 4AM on Sunday, i'd normally get to dc around 10AM - how bad is the snow expected to be in MD at that time?

Posted by: raechel2002 | December 25, 2010 8:03 PM | Report abuse

Ohhh Camden -- remember my prediction :)

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 8:04 PM | Report abuse

i'm going to be driving to DC from Ohio - taking 76 through PA and then 70 through MD. if i leave my house at 4AM on Sunday, i'd normally get to dc around 10AM - how bad is the snow expected to be in MD at that time?

Posted by: raechel2002 | December 25, 2010 8:04 PM | Report abuse

i'm going to be driving to DC from Ohio - taking 76 through PA and then 70 through MD. if i leave my house at 4AM on Sunday, i'd normally get to dc around 10AM - how bad is the snow expected to be in MD at that time?

Posted by: raechel2002 | December 25, 2010 8:05 PM | Report abuse

@BobMiller

How do you know this storm is serious? Given the way it's waffling with every model run, I think there is every evidence that this storm is the George Carlin of winter weather.

No matter what happens either the snow lovers or snow haters will have at least 5 of the 7 dirty words at the ready!

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | December 25, 2010 8:05 PM | Report abuse

SkinsForever22044 - I know you'll agree with me that if I were the CarefulNervousMotherDriving (CNMD) to Lehigh Valley in up to 24" of snow I would be a nervous wreck knowing that aliens were dropping by the bucketload. CNMD please take heed and think carefully before venturing out where we have hurricanes, thunderstorms, inverse vortices, downward spirals of cool air mixing with upward troughs of moist, warm Gulf air, and ALIENS. Please, by all means, take heed.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 8:07 PM | Report abuse

My girlfriend will be driving back to DC from near Roanoke tomorrow evening. From the sound of it, she will not hit the worst of it till she gets pretty far in on 66. you think that is a valid assumption? she needs to be at work early monday morning at washington hospital center, otherwise she'd just stay at her moms for longer and miss the snow.

Posted by: timdgoff | December 25, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse

raechel2002 - you should be okay.. it will get tricky by Frederick, but not impassible

snowlover ... hmmm... I think I do :) 4-8? right?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse

awesome, thanks CWG! appreciate everything you guys do!

Posted by: raechel2002 | December 25, 2010 8:09 PM | Report abuse

Yep! I hope we get at least that! Looking forward to a fun day tomorrow with the CWG!!

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 8:09 PM | Report abuse

NCEP/HPC has an experimental Winter Weather Impacts Graphics site - pretty neat; "SREF (regional model ensemble) based probability graphics of factors considered significant beyond accumulation, including duration, timing, and intensity.

Check it out at:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 8:09 PM | Report abuse

...ticking off dirty words in my mind trying to see if I come up with 7 (and only 7)...

Do they all have to be in English??

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 8:10 PM | Report abuse

Put me in the camp of enjoy rpcv's snark. I recognize that this is a big storm and there are potentially deadly consequences. The little kid in me loves anticipating a big storm. My hope is that folks keep an eye on the forecast and stay off the roads.

Merry Christmas to all,

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | December 25, 2010 8:10 PM | Report abuse

i'm going to be driving to DC from Ohio - taking 76 through PA and then 70 through MD. if i leave my house at 4AM on Sunday, i'd normally get to dc around 10AM - how bad is the snow expected to be in MD at that time?

Posted by: raechel2002 | December 25, 2010 8:03 PM | Report abuse
__________________________
Depends where in Md you're going. And, no one, not even CWG is God - only s/he knows what will happen, if anything. Just buckle up, stop for a nice breakfast at a Penn turnpike restaurant (the one near Breezewood has great chipped beef over warm white toast), go potty before pulling out, and you'll be fine.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 8:11 PM | Report abuse

timdgoff - yup, valid assumption. Thanks for reading our analysis. If she can..try to avoid approaching DC from apprx 2pm-8pm. I want road crews and salt to be effective on the roads, to keep conditions safe (before and after that timeframe will be "acceptable")

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 8:12 PM | Report abuse

This blog is turing into a joke. You've got rpcv84 talking about thunderstorms, aliens, and 75 degree weather, ChickenLady and AsymptoticUnlimited talking about 7 dirty words, what's next??? rpcv84, I guess this is your cue to come in...

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 8:13 PM | Report abuse

@ChickenLady

If you get to 9, it's a date.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | December 25, 2010 8:15 PM | Report abuse

So, uh, my husband and I are right now under a blizzard warning in northeast Rhode Island, at my parents' house. We're supposed to be on Amtrak Monday morning to get back to DC, to be ready to go Tuesday morning. Do we stand a chance in hell of making it the 450 miles south, and if we come home Sunday instead, will we even be able to get home from Union Station at 10 p.m.?

Posted by: EtoilePB | December 25, 2010 8:16 PM | Report abuse

My girlfriend will be driving back to DC from near Roanoke tomorrow evening. From the sound of it, she will not hit the worst of it till she gets pretty far in on 66. you think that is a valid assumption? she needs to be at work early monday morning at washington hospital center, otherwise she'd just stay at her moms for longer and miss the snow.

Posted by: timdgoff | December 25, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse
__________________________
She doesn't know how to fake a sore throat and call in sick??? Get real...

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 8:17 PM | Report abuse

Light snow since 5 pm in NW Spotsy about 1/4". In case the snow really piles up, I'm planning on getting my papers early 2morrow. The 75 foot walk 2 the paper holders can be brutal.

Posted by: VaTechBob | December 25, 2010 8:18 PM | Report abuse

@BobMiller2 - I agree if you guys want to text each other or IM each other silly messages feel free to exchange information, but lets keep the discussion weather related!

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 8:19 PM | Report abuse

Let's see...
1. soil
2. dirt
3. humus
4. compost
5. loam
6. earth
7. .... clay?? sand??? manure????

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 8:19 PM | Report abuse

What's the FedCast for Monday? should I be stocking up for a day @ home?

Posted by: wendystengel | December 25, 2010 8:19 PM | Report abuse

@rpcv84 and ChickenLady: do you two clowns know each other?

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 8:21 PM | Report abuse

Sorry, @BobMiller and @snowlover.

While waiting on the 0z model runs and looking out my translucent rectangular viewing apparatus, I have determined that the limit of our weather sagacity is bounded by our ability to interpret multiple conflicting mathematical data sets and also that THERE IS NO NEW INFORMATION SO TRY TO RELAX AND HAVE A LITTLE FUN!

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | December 25, 2010 8:23 PM | Report abuse

So, uh, my husband and I are right now under a blizzard warning in northeast Rhode Island, at my parents' house. We're supposed to be on Amtrak Monday morning to get back to DC, to be ready to go Tuesday morning. Do we stand a chance in hell of making it the 450 miles south, and if we come home Sunday instead, will we even be able to get home from Union Station at 10 p.m.?

Posted by: EtoilePB | December 25, 2010 8:16 PM | Report abuse
__________________________________
We've covered this already in previous posts. We all agreed you should take the northern route - head up to Montreal and go west to Vancouver, taht the Pacific Coast Highway to I-10 east to Jacksonville, and then north to DC. With a little authentic eggnog and scotch, you'll do just fine.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 8:23 PM | Report abuse

BobMiller2, you say you're a snowlover, so I am already predisposed to like you. Here, I have an extra pair of size 27 clown shoes you can borrow. Play!

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 8:25 PM | Report abuse

What's the FedCast for Monday? should I be stocking up for a day @ home?

Posted by: wendystengel | December 25, 2010 8:19 PM | Report abuse
____________________________________
If you've got your computer you're supposed to telework. Didn't you read the new regs that OPM came out with lasst week?? 10 lashes with a wet noodle. Feds - always looking for a way out...

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 8:26 PM | Report abuse

Sorry A-United...I'm still trying to figure out how "lighten up" is equated to being a piece of garbage harassing people who are asking genuine questions about potential travel issues.

It's a shame the blog guys don't care enough about their own site to keep the comment section from turning into the playground of a few socially dysfunctional shut-ins.

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | December 25, 2010 8:28 PM | Report abuse

THERE IS NO NEW INFORMATION SO TRY TO RELAX AND HAVE A LITTLE FUN!

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | December 25, 2010 8:23 PM
___

This thing what he said.

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 8:30 PM | Report abuse

Q: CWG need your help!


Planned on leaving tomorrow morning for a trip down I-95 (Destination: South Carolina.) Planned to get about halfway tomorrow. Have to be in Charleston Monday afternoon.

When should we leave? What time does the storm appear to be dumping the heaviest snow along the I-95 corridor, between DC and Raleigh?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks, CWG.

Posted by: LenoreG | December 25, 2010 8:30 PM | Report abuse

NCEP/HPC has an experimental Winter Weather Impacts Graphics site - pretty neat; "SREF (regional model ensemble) based probability graphics of factors considered significant beyond accumulation, including duration, timing, and intensity.

Check it out at:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/

I just took a look at that and saw a big red spot right over washington DC (then of course it went up the coast to new york ect) from what I could tell it had intensified right over DC (even a little before) does this mean more than 3-6 inches of snow or was I reading it totally wrong. Also, could you please make an update on the storm as it has changed a bit. One last thing do you think Montgomery county will be under a winter storm warning? This will help a lot as we need to figure if we should close are restaurants down early in maryland.

P.S- As you guys are doing a great job with the storm its alright if you take a little risk!(People have places to go and decisions to make)

Thanks,
Jerrys of Eldersburg & Elicott City

Posted by: danrusso10 | December 25, 2010 8:32 PM | Report abuse

Sigh...... While I wait for something to happen.... Would Anybody mind telling me what the random numbers in front of a series of letters is.

Like 00z 06z 18z. Etc.

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 8:33 PM | Report abuse

Being neare the bay, any chance AA or Calvert counties get in on the blizzard warning tomorrow?

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Folks, just don't feed. They'll soon get bored and go back to playing with their Legos or something.

Posted by: natsncats | December 25, 2010 8:36 PM | Report abuse

@LenoreG

For I-95 between DC and Raleigh, worst of snow looks to be tonight through early afternoon - snow should let up from around 2 p.m. onward. Though improvement in road conditions probably lags behind a bit. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 8:36 PM | Report abuse

You are right, Joe. So, for the benefit of the blog and those asking serious questions I will make myself a target... Anyone who wants to play can say all the bad things they want about me, my mother, and my cat. This is my Christmas gift to you all.

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 8:37 PM | Report abuse

@JG - There are several problems with your statement. The CWG saying get on I-95 at 7 a.m., stop off for several hours at 2 p.m., and continue on would be malpractice. This storm is unpredictable. That means to me that if I was looking to travel, I'd best keep my plans flexible and check regularly. Unless it's a matter of life and death, be prepared to hunker down and wait it through.

I remember driving into a blizzard 15 years ago. I worked in Salt Lake City and my mother was visiting Tucson. So, I drove down to spend a couple of days. I left Tucson in the mid-80s and then drove north. By the time I hit Flagstaff, I was in a snowstorm. I stopped off for a moment and got ready to get going. I realized that they'd probably find my car by the side of the road the next morning and stopped off. I wound up driving 3 hours west to Las Vegas the next day before heading back to SLC.

There's no certainty here and there's no way to provide it. Be flexible and keep safe is worthy advice. And a little eager anticipation of a snow day is no bad thing.

@svpc-Love to do a day working from home, but not possible with little ones being held home from school.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | December 25, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

SnowDreamer, I believe it's the time at which the model was run, though I don't know if that's EST, GMT, or what time zone.

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

That is the model run in UTC. However, the results don't come out for a bit later... I think about 11:00PM for the 00 UTC GFS which is run at 7PM EST. Correct?

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 8:41 PM | Report abuse

My sides hurt from laughing. Merry Christmas to all and good luck in the storm....thanks CWG for being amazing!

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | December 25, 2010 8:41 PM | Report abuse

My sides hurt from laughing. Merry Christmas to all and good luck in the storm....thanks CWG for being amazing!

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | December 25, 2010 8:42 PM | Report abuse

CWG - thank you so much for spending your Christmas with us! I'm up in Boston, and I won't be back in DC for the storm (though I'll definitely get nailed with snow here!), but I'm still reading hourly and checking in. The weather folks up here aren't as good as you guys so I have no idea what the timeline of the storm is up North. Is there any chance at all that you could let me know when(ish) to expect the snow to start, worsen and end?

Posted by: CuseFan07 | December 25, 2010 8:43 PM | Report abuse

@SteveT: "As I've described in the paper I did on the Jan 24th, 2000 "Surprise Snowstorm" ... How about a link to that paper? It's still one of my favorite storms, Winter '09-'10 notwithstanding.

Posted by: --sg | December 25, 2010 8:43 PM | Report abuse

snowlover, at this point probabilities are still not high for that part of Maryland for concurrent 6+ inches of snow (falling at a rate of 2+" per hour) AND strong winds.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 8:43 PM | Report abuse

@snowlover

With the heavier snow there and the winds picking up later in the day tomorrow, yes I wouldn't be surprised if someone along the Bay sees a blizzard warning. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 8:44 PM | Report abuse

SoMdCom, your cat wears combat boots and your mother dresses you funny.

I was gonna say, wanna play Legos? But they might get lost in the SNOW.

Seriously? I don't get someone being a snowlover and not having fun with this. GIDDY, people, bouncing up and down, I mean it's Christmas and all I can think of is can I go sledding with a greased baking tray at work tomorrow?? (I'm a chef. There are nice hills around work). Weeeee!

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

@somdcommuter

The boys are having Glenlivet. I'm sticking to Champagne. :) Bubbles! Snow! Bring it on!

Posted by: casa_wasabi | December 25, 2010 8:46 PM | Report abuse

Let's all pray for lots of snow. LOTS LOTS LOTS! BTW, it seems we haven't heard from the clowns in a while. Phew.

Could Northern VA pick up more than 6 inches?

Bob Miller

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 8:47 PM | Report abuse

@EtoilePB - I'm in RI as well, moved my afternoon flight tomorrow to early AM.

Posted by: alexbrown484 | December 25, 2010 8:48 PM | Report abuse

Now I have this awful visual of my neurotic cat in combat boots. Doh!

When I saw you say, "your mother..." I was expecting to read "smells of elderberries"...

Need more scotch apparently.

A greased baking tray? That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Film at 11 - "Local chef serves up Pate a Crane"

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 8:49 PM | Report abuse

I'm curious, now that we are closer to the event, what can meteorologists say about which models were correct? I'm having trouble looking at the satellites and radar and comparing them to the runs. Any insight into how/where the storm is taking shape?

Can you tell if it is tracking west/east and, literally, which way the wind is blowing? :)

I recall your saying earlier a lot of this depends on where the two fronts intersect. Will that happen tonight or tomorrow?

Fascinating stuff! I find seeing the limits of our models to deal with this natural event really interesting.

Posted by: NaomiHB | December 25, 2010 8:52 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, CWG, for keeping us in the loop--and on Christmas, yet! Keep up the good work!
Merry Christmas (or simply, merriment) to all, and to all a good night!

Posted by: le_rod | December 25, 2010 8:53 PM | Report abuse

@ casa_wasabi - Dalwhinni here.

Now a moment of song:
Isn't it rich?
Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground,
You in mid-air.
Send in the clowns.

Isn't it bliss?
Don't you approve?
One who keeps tearing around,
One who can't move.
Where are the clowns?
Send in the clowns.

- Sondheim

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 8:54 PM | Report abuse

Did rpcv84 get banned? I hope so. The comment section should only be used for discussing weather.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 8:55 PM | Report abuse

If I don't report back you'll know it was, in fact, a disaster. But I think it's going to be great! We have acres. Though one of the best hills does end in a busy street ... I think I can resist the temptation and pick safer hills. If I survive it I'll post a comment to the current thread at the time.

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 8:55 PM | Report abuse

CWG, Thank you very much for working this Christmas and keeping us all informed. I appreciate that you are taking time away from your families to provide these updates and comments!

Posted by: billy6 | December 25, 2010 8:59 PM | Report abuse

Thanks CWG!

rpcv84, Hospitals generally dont take kindly to vital employees calling out during snow emergencies. See the nurses fired last winter.

Posted by: timdgoff | December 25, 2010 9:00 PM | Report abuse

Bob's right, we should only discuss weather. Whether or not there's any local weather data to discuss is irrelevant. Hell, there's a whole WORLD of weather out there! According to Intellicast, it's 81F in Rio de Janeiro right now. Maybe we should start a poll!

a) I'd rather be in Rio
b) Let it SNOW, let it SNOW, let it SNOOOOW!!!
c) Doesn't it ever snow in Rio?

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 9:02 PM | Report abuse

Guess you should be banned too then BobMiller.

Posted by: amorris525 | December 25, 2010 9:03 PM | Report abuse

Thanks chickenlady... Sigh....... Whatto do.....

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

@snowlover

Just a quick clarification to Camden's comment. There's no accumulation criteria, at least that I'm aware of, associated with a blizzard warning. From http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Defined/index.htm#Blizzard Warning...

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer

AND
2) Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

-Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

We can discuss weather are not the Cowboys are royally tanking against the Cardinals? Haha @ Cowboys fans...

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

Good song by Sondheim
also there is a song "(Turn, Turn, Turn)"
With each passing hour that the radar echoes and satellite images don't turn from NE to N (associated with neg trof tilt) lessens to potential snowfall in the DC metro. But on 25 JAN 2000, this happened just six hours before moderate snowfall moved into the DC metro, so there is still some time left, but it is running out.


Posted by: ronbcust | December 25, 2010 9:05 PM | Report abuse

I say b) Let it SNOW, let it SNOW, let it SNOOOOW!!!

P.S. It's a balmy 63 degrees in Sao Paulo!!!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 9:07 PM | Report abuse

@ ronbcust - To everything there is a season..turn, turn, turn.

Posted by: somdcommuter | December 25, 2010 9:08 PM | Report abuse

So, um ... at this point (oh, I hate to even ask)....

What are the chances, at this point, we will NOT get sleddable amounts of snow? In DC, or in Crownsville (nice hill here, too).

OK, OK, I know, next update ~10 pm. I'd almost rather be asleep by then and just wait for the surprise in the morning. If I can. (*bounce* *bounce* *bounce* woohoo!)

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 9:08 PM | Report abuse

Hello CWG. Going to a cabin with a friend for a couple days in western Greene County, Va. Am hoping to do some hiking in the snow. They should get at least an inch or so, right?

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 9:10 PM | Report abuse

@rpcv84

Can I please respectfully ask that you stay on topic? I realize you're trying to have fun and joke around a bit, but it's obviously frustrating folks who are coming here to get useful info. I appreciate your cooperation.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:10 PM | Report abuse

@BobMiller, I suspected you were having fun. Your tongue was maybe too discreetly in your cheek for some of these other cheeky peeps to notice. ;)

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 9:13 PM | Report abuse

I heard that it might snow. Is this true? I hope not.

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 9:13 PM | Report abuse

@Jason-CapitalWeatherGang: Tomorrow's high in Barrow, AK: -22 degrees. So at least this isn't the WORST case scenario.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 9:14 PM | Report abuse

Confusion about the travelcast - 3 airplanes means major delays, but the discussion earlier was leaning toward only minor delays.

For National, about 3pm tomorrow, headed to Florida - thoughts?

Posted by: Post43 | December 25, 2010 9:16 PM | Report abuse

I wish someone would address my question about the probability of snow. I've been waiting at least two full minutes.

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 9:16 PM | Report abuse

Could Northern VA pick up more than 6 inches?

Bob Miller
===========

Yes.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | December 25, 2010 9:16 PM | Report abuse

@Bobmiller, it's not the heat, it's the humidity that'll kill ya.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:16 PM | Report abuse

So what you are predicting is that we MIGHT get a lot of snow or very little? Well duh. Thanks for that insight.

Posted by: Danmynder22026 | December 25, 2010 9:18 PM | Report abuse

I know, I am confused too. It seems no one wants to stick their neck out and predict!

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 9:20 PM | Report abuse

I think I'm signing off for a while... I'm gonna go relax and watch It's a wonderful life and have some hot chocolate.

One final note: Merry Christmas

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 9:27 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the clarification Dan!

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 9:27 PM | Report abuse

Give them a break...... Think about it... There is a small thing off e coast to the south of us that will soon explode w/ energy and do any number of things...... Not easy to predict, I'd like to see you do better.

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 9:28 PM | Report abuse

Soooo I'm back!! After havin my red wine...I need support SNOWLOVERS!! Am i the only one who is watching the radar and asking" when is this damn thing going to push north?" We are missing alot of precip and I am starting to think that DAMN NAM was right .....The GFS let us down!! ITS A BUST!!! 2 to 3 if were lucky!!!

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 9:29 PM | Report abuse

Give them a break...... Think about it... There is a small thing off e coast to the south of us that will soon explode w/ energy and do any number of things...... Not easy to predict, I'd like to see you do better.

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 9:29 PM | Report abuse

With each passing hour that the radar echoes and satellite images don't turn from NE to N (associated with neg trof tilt) lessens to potential snowfall in the DC metro. But on 25 JAN 2000, this happened just six hours before moderate snowfall moved into the DC metro, so there is still some time left, but it is running out.
Posted by: ronbcust | December 25, 2010 9:05 PM
-------------
00Z NAM backing off more. RUC not turning it either. Radar/satl show no turn. looking like accumulation may have to go down by about 2" across board in DC metro.

Posted by: ronbcust | December 25, 2010 9:30 PM | Report abuse

Apparently the warnings and watches attracts the crazies to this blog. CWG - We're still sticking to our target comments from earlier in the week right? I'm feeling pretty good about my 2.4" prediction for Reston right now.

Posted by: parksndc | December 25, 2010 9:31 PM | Report abuse

ronbcust -

Good point. No one has mentioned that yet. Without the S to N fetch of precip on radar, our chances of more than 5" here in DC are minimal. Without banding of course, if it happens, as the low approaches our latitude.

If you do look closely though near the GA/SC coastal border, you'll see the radar trends there turning more towards S to N than SW to NE. The surface low is deepening rapidly. Good thing for us.

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 25, 2010 9:32 PM | Report abuse

Just got back from a family dinner in the Richmond suburbs, where we were lucky to experience a pretty white Christmas. Started snowing there mid-afternoon and continued steadily into the evening. By sunset, the grass was covered and it started sticking to the streets...it was coming down heavily on I-95. Sad to see no flakes or accumulation back in the NOVA area, but still crossing my fingers for something to come this way.

Thanks CWG for all your hard work on the holiday. Hope you had some time to relax a bit, too!

Posted by: meteorolinguist | December 25, 2010 9:32 PM | Report abuse

Apparently the warnings and watches attracts the crazies to this blog. CWG - We're still sticking to our target comments from earlier in the week right? I'm feeling pretty good about my 2.4" prediction for Reston right now.

Posted by: parksndc | December 25, 2010 9:32 PM | Report abuse

Just got back from a family dinner in the Richmond suburbs, where we were lucky to experience a pretty white Christmas. Started snowing there mid-afternoon and continued steadily into the evening. By sunset, the grass was covered and it started sticking to the streets...it was coming down heavily on I-95. Sad to see no flakes or accumulation back in the NOVA area, but still crossing my fingers for something to come this way.

Thanks CWG for all your hard work on the holiday. Hope you had some time to relax a bit, too!

Posted by: meteorolinguist | December 25, 2010 9:33 PM | Report abuse

I predict no accumulation based on the inversion layer effect. By midday tomorrow, we will have scattered rain, with some light and clouds.

I predict!

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 9:33 PM | Report abuse

Apparently the warnings and watches attracts the crazies to this blog. CWG - We're still sticking to our target comments from earlier in the week right? I'm feeling pretty good about my 2.4" prediction for Reston right now.

Posted by: parksndc | December 25, 2010 9:35 PM | Report abuse

Here are my predictions:
BWI: 6.2"
DCA: 1.7"
IAD: 2.0"

Even though DCA is east of IAD, I think IAD will pick up more simply because DCA always somehow gets substantially less than the rest of us.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 9:37 PM | Report abuse

Ugh, conditions not looking good for 1530 arrival at DCA tomorrow, which pains me because I've been with the fam for 5 days, in small quarters, with one car for 5 people.....i want to go home tomorrow.

Posted by: see1 | December 25, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse

That's a lot of rain Bob Miller!

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse

CORRECTION:
Here are my predictions:
BWI: 6.2" SNOW
DCA: 1.7" SNOW
IAD: 2.0" SNOW

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 9:41 PM | Report abuse

Thank you...I'm holding out hope!!! I have been a weather freak since I was like 3 and I have no idea about all of this, EXCEPT all of those years of WATCHING radar and reading the model interpretations. I taught myself like tennis....WEATHER IS FASCINATING!! But I do notice that turn isnt happening...buuutt...Jason will make it turn!!! I did notice that cluster around Ga and SC earlier..sooo HANGING ON :)

Thanks CWG!! Love this place!

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 9:41 PM | Report abuse

I predict, with 100% confidence, that some people will get more snow than they want and some will get less.

@CWG, thanks for spending your Christmas staying on top of what is surely one of the toughest snow forecasts in years.

Know no limts,

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | December 25, 2010 9:41 PM | Report abuse

In-laws have made the decision to stay here the extra day instead of taking off first thing in the AM to drive back to Atlanta. Probably a good idea.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:42 PM | Report abuse

@see1 and all

All afternoon travel looks dicey. Even if the locals are doing ok, the trouble throughout the northeast will make any transit though.

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:47 PM | Report abuse

@see1 and all

All afternoon travel looks dicey. Even if the locals are doing ok, the trouble throughout the northeast will make any transit though.

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:48 PM | Report abuse

If you do look closely though near the GA/SC coastal border, you'll see the radar trends there turning more towards S to N than SW to NE. The surface low is deepening rapidly.
Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 25, 2010 9:32 PM
===
Maybe, but its not obvious yet. Back on JAN 24 2000 before we all had this access to charts and data on broadband, the turn was obvious by 7PM on Doug Hill's radar composite. mdt/hvy star snow started shortly after midnight in DC. For that to happen this time by daybreak, its got to turn big time by around around midnight

Posted by: ronbcust | December 25, 2010 9:50 PM | Report abuse

I will join in the chorus of "thank you CWG for working through Christmas for us snow junkies!"

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 9:52 PM | Report abuse

Did someone mention Doug Hill? I believe the heavens just parted. I must bow to the god, we are not worthy!

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 9:55 PM | Report abuse

@Chickenlady, I don't think we could call ourselves meteorologists if we let a little thing like Christmas get in the way of geeking out over a snowstorm.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:56 PM | Report abuse

It started snowing in Williamsburg about 3 pm and kept up at a steady pace! I left there around 6 and there was almost an inch on the ground - very fluffy! Not stuck to the roads at all.

I-64 west was just wet - temps waffling between 30 and 33. There were A LOT of cars, a lot more than I normally see on 64 (my parents live in Williamsburg and I go down frequently), a def a lot more than I'd expect on Christmas. 295 and 95 were just fine - light snow was falling until I got to about Quantico and after that the road was totally dry. Still A LOT of cars - mostly heading south.

I came home 2 days early - Williamsburg is forecast to get almost 10 inches and that will cancel our plans Sun & Mon and make it hard for me to get home Mon regardless of what happens here. I'm worried though that my change of plans might result in jinxing the snow here. I'm firmly in the snow lover camp and love a good snowstorm! I'm a teacher so this is pretty much the worst Sunday of the whole year for a snowstorm (no school to cancel till Jan 3, so really a white New Year would work better for me!), but hopefully this won't be the only snow of the whole winter.

Thanks Capital Weather! :-)

Posted by: mamory1975 | December 25, 2010 9:59 PM | Report abuse

2 inches of gorgeous snow here in North Central Alabama. Storm overperformed here - wondering what it is going to do by the time it reaches my apartment in DC???

Posted by: dotyt | December 25, 2010 10:01 PM | Report abuse

Snow wasn't supposed to start until after midnight. The fact that this hasn't turned north yet should not be that much of a concern. The fact that all the most recent models have trended a bit more east (except JMA) is a bit concerning. But, after these final 0Z runs its really just a matter of watching the radar and hoping those forecasters that stood by this all along are rewarded!

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 10:01 PM | Report abuse

Last!

Posted by: trollboy69 | December 25, 2010 10:02 PM | Report abuse

So if I've got people coming over in the afternoon who would have to park on the street ... that would be a bad thing? Should we cancel so the plows can do their thing?

Posted by: BDVienna | December 25, 2010 10:03 PM | Report abuse

I agree it looks like we are starting to see a turn more from S to N - not totally there yet, but hopefully soon.

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 10:03 PM | Report abuse

@ChickenLady: I agree. you CWG guys deserve a nice day off for working everyday, day and night... even on Christmas! The fact that you guys were up at all hours of the night on Christmas/Christmas eve is very admirable.

Let's vote for our favorite local weather source:
A. ABC7
B. Capital Weather Gang
C. FOX5
D. NBC4
E. CBS9

I vote for... Drum roll... B!! Capital Weather Gang all the way!!!!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 10:05 PM | Report abuse

I've always thought meteorology makes for a great spiritual discipline. It's all about humility, isn't it?

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 10:05 PM | Report abuse

@ChickenLady: I agree. you CWG guys deserve a nice day off for working everyday, day and night... even on Christmas! The fact that you guys were up at all hours of the night on Christmas/Christmas eve is very admirable.

Let's vote for our favorite local weather source:
A. ABC7
B. Capital Weather Gang
C. FOX5
D. NBC4
E. CBS9

I vote for... Drum roll... B!! Capital Weather Gang all the way!!!!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 10:06 PM | Report abuse

I would like to see the Capital Weather Gang do a drive by and mess up the Fox boys.

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 10:10 PM | Report abuse

I love snow and live this coverage. But I worry about so many comments indicating folks are going to try long distance travel in the I-95 northeast corridor. Be safe. Put your winter tires on if you have them. Chains and a shovel can save you in a pinch. Don't even try with summer performance tires. Be prepared to spend the night in your car and be safe.

Posted by: biketraveller22 | December 25, 2010 10:10 PM | Report abuse

@BobMiller2: Natch. CWG ftw!

Posted by: ChickenLady | December 25, 2010 10:11 PM | Report abuse

Not liking the northward progression, or lack thereof, of the snow. Must not be a lot of lift in the atmosphere because dewpoints are not THAT low...only a spread of about 12 degrees below air temp. Thoughts?

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 25, 2010 10:14 PM | Report abuse

On a flight back to bwi as we speak, then driving down to Arlington. I was in Mississippi and was supposed to fly back tomorrow; going through charlette nc. Then I woke up this morning and checked cwg for the latest and was quite surprised at the shift in the forecast. Sadly I left family to bump up my flight but I had to fly to Dallas first, then bwi. Charlette and Atlanta were already having delays. Thanks cwg for staying on top of this. Flight lands in an hour and it looks like I beat the snow and crazy travel delays thar are sure to come.

My prediction: intensifying low hugs the coast giving dc more than 6 inches, possibly a foot.

Posted by: SteveinAtown | December 25, 2010 10:15 PM | Report abuse

@ChickenLady: thanks for voting... Did I mention that Rio is up to 82 degrees?

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 10:16 PM | Report abuse

I'm worried that if there is no snow the traffic on I95 will be heavier on this holiday weekend and even though the media won't be interested there will be more accidents. Snow saves lives!

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | December 25, 2010 10:16 PM | Report abuse

Left D.C. for the mountains of Western NC. We got 7" today and still coming down. We are in TN boarder counties (Yancey), North of Asheville. Lovin' the snow, but no good weather blogs that I know of down here and no idea what to expect between now and Monday.

Anybody from CWG got a prediction for NC mountains along TN boarder and up I-81? If not, at least a rec for someone down here who I should be reading? Not sure how to plan my return home to D.C.

Posted by: DCcola | December 25, 2010 10:20 PM | Report abuse

Great coverage CWG...I am on pins and needles for the late updated, when can we expect it?

Posted by: jdtdc | December 25, 2010 10:20 PM | Report abuse

Folks - I had meant to say that for the snow lovers, I hope that the heavy snow makes it into the DC area. But I know tmrw is a heavy travel day (my plans have already been disrupted due to the forecast) and I don't want people to be stuck and unable to get back into town. Always a balance here between different views of snowstorms.

Posted by: afreedma | December 25, 2010 10:55 PM | Report abuse

Folks - I had meant to say that for the snow lovers, I hope that the heavy snow makes it into the DC area. But I know tmrw is a heavy travel day (my plans have already been disrupted due to the forecast) and I don't want people to be stuck and unable to get back into town. Always a balance here between different views of snowstorms.

Posted by: afreedma | December 25, 2010 10:55 PM | Report abuse

the radar says "east of I-95 is the place to be". 2-4 inches in dc seems reasonable at this point...more east. i want the blizzard of 96 again, please.

Posted by: swishjobs | December 25, 2010 10:59 PM | Report abuse

the radar says "east of I-95 is the place to be". 2-4 inches in dc seems reasonable at this point...more east. i want the blizzard of 96 again, please.

Posted by: swishjobs | December 25, 2010 10:59 PM | Report abuse

you and me both. last winter was amazing but that storm was epic.

Posted by: deeeeeep18 | December 25, 2010 11:48 PM | Report abuse

Are we really down to 2-4? I've been following this blog all day & will be SUPER bummed if we don't get an update tonight....I know it's Christmas BUT... this storm is such a tease, I would LOVE to know what I can expect on the roads at about 10am in upper Northwest. Going to Tysons (VA drivers, no thanks!) I am NOT about going into work on a Sunday if there's a chance I will not get home. This storm is the WORST! Euro shoulda held out!

Posted by: visualglamour | December 25, 2010 11:59 PM | Report abuse

8:50 p.m. update: No changes to the forecast below as of now. Some new model data comes in over the next couple hours. We'll be reviewing that and will have a new post this evening (regardless of whether the forecast has changed or not).

Yea, right. It's now 4:30 a.m., on Sunday.

Posted by: jerryshake | December 26, 2010 4:25 AM | Report abuse

@ChickenLady: Are you still gonna update us on your sledding trip???? :)

Bob

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 26, 2010 1:36 PM | Report abuse

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