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Posted at 1:15 PM ET, 12/25/2010

Update: Still big range in Sunday snow potential

By Jason Samenow

There has been a slight backing off in the snow amounts forecast by some of the model guidance late this morning and into the early afternoon. As we've been discussing for several days now, this forecast has been extremely difficult and, unfortunately, the benefit of nearing closer to the onset of the storm isn't helping a lot.

Why is the forecast so uncertain? It's because the storm is basically forecast to develop explosively very close to us and any minor shift in the timing or placement of this development has major implications for the snowfall amounts. If the development occurs later and slightly further east, we could get very little. Or it happens earlier and a hair further west, we get buried.

first-call.jpg
Snowfall probabilities for D.C. metro region Sunday and Sunday night.

Further east northeast - from the Delmarva peninsula to Boston, the uncertainty is reduced because those locations are sure to be closer to the storm center which will have had more time to develop, especially as you head north.

But the uncertainty here is why the National Weather Service has us under a Winter Storm Watch rather than a warning. A watch means there is potential for heavy snow, but does not mean it's a sure thing.

Based on the latest information, we'll call for a most likely accumulation of 3-6" - with more east of Prince George's county and less west of Fairfax county. However, note in the graphic to the right, there is the considerable possibility of other outcomes and any of them are about as likely as 3-6". By later today, we'll try to narrow this down further and put together an accumulation map and timeline.

By Jason Samenow  | December 25, 2010; 1:15 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, Updates, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Update: Winter storm watches extended west
Next: Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather Advisory posted; accumulation possible tonight/tomorrow

Comments

How's the latest ECMWF looking?

Posted by: cleombrota | December 25, 2010 1:12 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the update! As someone wondering when to try to get home, these updates are a lifesaver.

Posted by: starletta8 | December 25, 2010 1:16 PM | Report abuse

Can you provide more info on the area from Philly, north? What is the accumulation expected in NYC and Boston, winds, timing, and what is the certainty?

Thanks so much. This is an AMAZING site!!

Posted by: stmakr | December 25, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

Can you provide more info on the area from Philly, north? What is the accumulation expected in NYC and Boston, winds, timing, and what is the certainty?

Thanks so much. This is an AMAZING site!!

Posted by: stmakr | December 25, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

@cleombrata

Latest Euro shows roughly what it did last night- between somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.25-0.5 melted depending exactly where you are in the metro area. It's a bit weaker with the low but maybe a tiny bit west.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Wow. That graph really drives home how uncertain things still are. Less than 24 hours before the start of the storm and it could be anything from a complete miss to a major snowfall.

The suspense is so thick you could cut it with a knife. Or a shiny new snow shovel.

Posted by: ElJocko | December 25, 2010 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Im in sterling, va and I'm getting nervous. This morning, one of the models had us buried in over a foot of snow. Now, it's back down to less than three inches west of Fairfax!!! It seems like the forecast keeps changing! Can you PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE tell me what the odds are of Sterling getting over 6 inches?

THANK YOU SOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 1:27 PM | Report abuse

12Z runs of UKMET/Canadian/ECMWF/GFS all close now on low pressure track. at 24 hours (12Z SUN) just off HAT and 36 hours (00Z MON) off ACY. 3"-6" DC metro looking about right. Much more eastern shore up to NYC and BOS.

Posted by: ronbcust | December 25, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Hello Jason, and Merry Christmas! Any indication of what's likely to fall sount of the city, like through the Carolinas? My original plan was to drive home from Savannah tomorrow, but if it's going to be bad I can wait until Monday.

Posted by: jochpo | December 25, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

@stmakr

To me, it looks like a bigger and bigger hit as you head north. Philly 6"+, NYC 8-12"+, Boston 10-15"+??? Take these with a grain of salt as I haven't spent a lot of time analyzing those cities. One thing is for sure: they are more likely to get really big snows than DC.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Is there a certain time by which NWS will have to make the call on whether or not to go from the Watch to either WSW or WWA?

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

*That was supposed to be "south," of course. Sorry for the typo.

Posted by: jochpo | December 25, 2010 1:32 PM | Report abuse

What about areas south such as Hampton Roads?

Posted by: cerise222 | December 25, 2010 1:32 PM | Report abuse

Jason, are we following the Euro or the GFS most closely now? Seems that the GFS is showing a stronger low closer to Maryland with more potential for heavy snowfall than the Euro.

Posted by: brianmarkweber | December 25, 2010 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Jason, please don't forget those of us to the SW of DC (Stafford County) when you post the accumulation map.

Thanks!!

Posted by: david_in_stafford | December 25, 2010 1:35 PM | Report abuse

@brianmarkweber

Actually, the GFS and Euro are now in pretty good agreement... GFS slightly wetter but not a lot.

@cerise222

Winter storm warnings in effect for Hampton Roads. Being closer to the storm, you'll get more precip - but warmer temps and possible mixing with rain - may mean snow totals are about the same as here... 3-6 inches or so.

@BH99

I'd expect NWS to issue advisories/warning late afternoon or this evening. They'll probably start with warnings east of here and wait a little to analyze latest models/satellite/radar before putting up warnings in DC area.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Here we go again. Accumulation predictions being lowered because of the latest model runs. Next run could change everything again. Also wondering if some snow will run out ahead of this tonight.

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Both gfs and nam nam give norfolk a little over .50" liquid but suggest the gfs suggesting 5 or 6 inches. The official NWS forecast for the area is:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=akq&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=220&map.y=167&site=AKQ

Posted by: wjunker | December 25, 2010 1:45 PM | Report abuse

regarding Norfolk, jason's 3 to 6 inches looks more reasonable given the temps which do suggest the possibility of rain mixing in.

Posted by: wjunker | December 25, 2010 1:48 PM | Report abuse

Big fan of CWG since Snowmageddon - you all do your profession proud.

But really... that bar graph is kind of a joke. Equal chance of anything? Just say you don't know what's going to happen - something tells me that CWG readers will understand. And forgive.

Thanks for all the hard work, looking forward to an ole' fashioned "wait and see" storm.

Posted by: hedgethembets | December 25, 2010 1:54 PM | Report abuse

@hedgethembets

I hear ya...basically the message is: all options are on the table, but if you pin us down and want our best bet, we say 3-6".

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

Can you please provide an estimate of how much snow the 2100 block of Sligo Avenue in Silver Spring is supposed to get?

That would be really be helpful so I can start planning what I'm going to do tomorrow. tomorrow.

Thanks!

Posted by: trollboy69 | December 25, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

First, MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Second, When will your next update come out? Will it have a snow accumulation map? Finally, what are the odds of the storm shifting west and giving us heftier snow totals?

Thanks, Bob Miller

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

Light snow flurries here in Carroll, but not sticking very well. 28 degrees.

Posted by: jimmygre | December 25, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse

I would note two things that should give snow lovers hope it could be more than 3 to 6.

It seems like every storm, including the recent flurrymagedon's, over the past two years has ended up giving us more than had forecast.

Also, it seems like numerous times western suburbs have been expected to get less, but they usually always seem to come out with more, regardless of where the heaviest snow was expected to set up.

Posted by: realclear | December 25, 2010 2:08 PM | Report abuse

Looking at the weather map, radar loops and surface observations, the storm appears to be blossoming.

There is already an area of moderate to heavy snow extending from NE Alabama, thru eastern Tennessee and western NC. The band appears to be headed right toward us.

It is already snowing in southern VA, so I believe the snow will start around midnght, light at first and heavier toward dawn.

With the 500 mb flow backing toward the south and the storm rapidly developing, it is hard to conceive that the area of heavy snow will pass east of DC.

My consevative guess-timate zt this time is that 6" for DC is a fairly certain and that 12" plus is possible if everything falls into place.

Thats my opinion, right or wrong.

Posted by: frontieradjust | December 25, 2010 2:08 PM | Report abuse

I am absolutely tweaking over all this weather excitement. And I would just like to thank the Capital Weather Gang for working so diligently to serve us up with delicious updates. Y'all are rock stars. Keep up the good work.

Posted by: casa_wasabi | December 25, 2010 2:14 PM | Report abuse

taken from AmericanWx
new from NCEP:

THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z
RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE.
SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY
COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE
STORM.

so if the Euro holds (as NCEP believes), I believe it gives DC about 0.35 QPF and B'more at 0.50. Looks like that would give us exactly what CWG is currently forecasting.

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 2:16 PM | Report abuse

Yea, Cap Weather. One thing that is very unclear to even us who know this storm is coming (most do not, cause of XMAS), what time will the snow start. Are we talking tonight, tomorrow a.m. tomorrow afternoon. Seems very unclear on the timing of this thing.

Posted by: realclear | December 25, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

will be interesting to see if Prince Georges County (where I live) gets an advisory or warning. At this point, it looks like Hyattsville would get advisory snow accumulation but more likely warning totals towards Upper Marlboro.

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 2:22 PM | Report abuse

NWS is predicting up to 5" for PWC, VA. What do you think accumulations could be in Woodbridge? THANKS! Really enjoying watching this play out.

Posted by: lisajulia | December 25, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

According to UTC, the new SREF should have come out a long time ago. When does the 15z SREF come out?

Posted by: bbirnbau | December 25, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

The only certainty about the current forecast is the continuing uncertainty. From a scientific point of view the virtually equal chances across the board from zilch to a paralyzing foot or more snowstorm essentially translate to attempts to predict the unpredictable!

At only one day ahead, this degree of uncertainty is unusual. On a positive note, the science and state-of-the art weather prediction computer models enable us to distinguish a case like the current situation from those which are more predictable, i.e., predict with significantly greater confidence. While it may seem counter intuitive, some cases, like Snowmaggedon last winter, can be more predictable 5 days out than ones like now only one day in advance.

It's just unfortunate that, by chance, we're dealing with a virtual no-confidence forecast when having to make high impact decisions, such as travel, in the context of a major holiday weekend.


for just about equal chances across the board from nothing to

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 2:34 PM | Report abuse

Here in Carroll as soon as the flurries seem to be picking they just peter out, still just light flurries.

Posted by: jimmygre | December 25, 2010 2:37 PM | Report abuse

Latest from NWS 2:15pm
DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-252215-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WS.A.0010.101226T0800Z-101227T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...
BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG
908 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBILITY OF 5 OR MORE INCHES.

* TIMING...MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONTINUING
SUNDAY. ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
PEAK PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WOULD BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
(from http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=va&prodtype=warnings)

Posted by: tiggerinfairfax | December 25, 2010 2:38 PM | Report abuse

breakdown of current snowfall forecast for DC
CWG 3-6"
accuweather 2-4"
NWS about 3"
NBC4 3-6"
CBS9 2-3"
ABC7 2"+ (no real estimate given)

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 2:45 PM | Report abuse

Has anyone had a chance to look at the latest JMA run? WOW!

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

National Weather Service update for Carroll Md. Adams PA., Winter Storm Watch for 6-10 inches with blowing and drifting Sunday!!!!1

Posted by: jimmygre | December 25, 2010 2:51 PM | Report abuse

Beat the rush, abandon your cars early.

Posted by: slim21 | December 25, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

National Weather Service update for Carroll Md. Adams PA., Winter Storm Watch for 6-10 inches with blowing and drifting Sunday!!!! Just a few light flurries blowing around right now in Carroll:(

Posted by: jimmygre | December 25, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

Oh man, I just about had a conniption (sp?) during an hour long fight with my modem. Figures it would start acting wacky at the worst possible time. Think I fixed it though. So, I hear we might get snow tomorrow...

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 2:55 PM | Report abuse

if this storm produces anything substantial, it should aptly be named, "SnoWhat!?" due to its unpredictability.

Posted by: PoorTeacher | December 25, 2010 2:56 PM | Report abuse

The JMA looks impressive...I think this storm will explode into a monster storm closer to Maryland than most are currently expecting. Yes, NYC to Boston may be in the zone for this storm, but I think DC gets at at least 6-12 and the Eastern Shore 12+. A forecaster at Accu-Weather is calling for 1-2 feet on Delmarva. We really need the low to bomb out a little farther south to bring the heaviest snow to DC-BAL.

Posted by: brianmarkweber | December 25, 2010 2:59 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the Carroll County update!

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 3:00 PM | Report abuse

The JMA looks impressive...I think this storm will explode into a monster storm closer to Maryland than most are currently expecting. Yes, NYC to Boston may be in the zone for this storm, but I think DC gets at at least 6-12 and the Eastern Shore 12+. A forecaster at Accu-Weather is calling for 1-2 feet on Delmarva. We really need the low to bomb out a little farther south to bring the heaviest snow to DC-BAL.

Posted by: brianmarkweber | December 25, 2010 2:59 PM | Report abuse
____________________________________
brianmarkweber: So? Opinions are like buttholes. Everybody's got one and they all stink.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 3:04 PM | Report abuse

The 18Z nam finally has trended towards the GFS, still not as heavy but gets the .25"inch line to the district giving additional support for the 3-6 inch call.

Posted by: wjunker | December 25, 2010 3:10 PM | Report abuse

I understand the timetables are coming out later tonight but I was wondering if CWG could give an idea when the first flakes may fall...I'm trying to decide if I should spend the night in DC or not and I'm a poor driver in snow (from the South, overly confident, 2WD, young/stupid).

Posted by: bloodynose | December 25, 2010 3:11 PM | Report abuse

can you tell me when these 3-6 inches are supposed to be on the ground. I have a flight at 5pm tomorrow and would like to be hopeful that i can take off

Posted by: pomata24 | December 25, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse

To add what you posted BH99, that other weather entity we used to all go to, you know the one on TV with something in the water down there in Atlanta, just said "2 to 4."

Had a flashback too from the old days of watching TWC. Anyone remember Warren Madden? He's working today.


Posted by: jaybird926 | December 25, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

This map shows a reasonable 4-8 inch snow for the immediate area. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/

Posted by: barryg2 | December 25, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

I'll be driving south from PA to Germantown, MD sometime tomm. I'm guessing Germantown and my route arent in the bullseye so all should be well?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | December 25, 2010 3:14 PM | Report abuse

I don't think anyone knows when the first flakes will fall. All day, I thought it was like early to mid morning tomorrow. But it's already snowing lightly in Richmond to near Charlottesville, so I think the storm is expanding a north a bit faster than expected. I asked Cap Weather awhile ago if they could clarify, but they didn't respond, so I assume they are still trying to figure that out.

Posted by: realclear | December 25, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse

I'll be driving south from PA to Germantown, MD sometime tomm. I'm guessing Germantown and my route arent in the bullseye so all should be well?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | December 25, 2010 3:14 PM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Wait and see. Only God knows.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 3:17 PM | Report abuse

What about south of here, incl eastern NC (Greenville/Rocky Mount)?

Posted by: dbokie1 | December 25, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

I don't think anyone knows when the first flakes will fall. All day, I thought it was like early to mid morning tomorrow. But it's already snowing lightly in Richmond to near Charlottesville, so I think the storm is expanding a north a bit faster than expected. I asked Cap Weather awhile ago if they could clarify, but they didn't respond, so I assume they are still trying to figure that out.

Posted by: realclear | December 25, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse
_______________
You wrote: I don't think anyone knows when the first flakes will fall.

How profound and correct. Then why not just accept it and go about your business?

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

I didn't look clse enough, the nam qpf over dca is between .25 and .50". Time to take a family break.

Posted by: wjunker | December 25, 2010 3:23 PM | Report abuse

rpcv84 - your endless snark is neither refreshing nor welcome. Some newer folks here are just trying to get a read on when/how they should re-jigger their travel plans. How about you put a SOCK in it and disregard their questions if you have a problem with them??

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | December 25, 2010 3:25 PM | Report abuse

You wrote: I don't think anyone knows when the first flakes will fall.

How profound and correct. Then why not just accept it and go about your business?

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

So, how long do the abuse reports take before WaPo bans someone?

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | December 25, 2010 3:29 PM | Report abuse

I am concerned about whether the DC govt announces a snow emergency as I'm parked on a snow emergency route and out of town till tomorrow afternoon. Do I need to change my plans and come back early? At what point does DC usually announce snow emergency and you can't park on those streets anymore? How much notice will they give before towing?

Posted by: britinva | December 25, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

There's been a lot of questions about when, as of now the bulk of the heaviest snow should fall between midday tomorrow and early Monday morning for our area. Obviously the further south/north you go, the earlier/later the heavy precip will move through.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

There's been many questions about when the snow will fall for a variety of reasons. As of now, the heaviest of the snow should move through our area between around midday tomorrow and early monday morning. Obviously the further north/south you go, the later/earlier you'll see the heavier precip.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 3:33 PM | Report abuse

Warnings going up in town and east. Advisories to the west of town, including Fairfax and MoCo.

Posted by: jpl1019 | December 25, 2010 3:35 PM | Report abuse

So I guess the best question to ask is, when _will_ we know enough? CWG, when do you expect that things will settle enough that you'll have higher confidence in your prediction? Or is it just not going to be known until the snow has fallen?

Posted by: pmhesse | December 25, 2010 3:38 PM | Report abuse

Winter Storm Warning in effect for Elkton, Md. (way northeast of D.C., but I'm a follower of this blog cause I go to UMD). 8-12 inches predicted. Travel strongly discouraged.

Posted by: bigmikeyman92 | December 25, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

looking to the south....

NWS says 3" for Atlanta, checked radar/webcams - rain in town, snow 1 hour north now in GA Mountains

NWS says 3-5" for Greensboro, snowing there, with a rain/snow line right along I-85

NWS says 4-6" for Raleigh/Durham, but to start as rain, airport still reporting 43 degrees, Greensboro airport is about 70 miles west, and reporting 33

NWS says 4-6" for Charlotte, 41 now, but snow on the ground an hour north in the Hickory area

NWS says 1-3" for Columbia, SC tomorrow, 50 now with overcast

a rare Winter Weather Advisory for Charleston, SC, as well as Hilton Head, no advisory for Savannah, but a chance of snow showers there

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Bombo index rises to 0.8--80% chance of accumulating snow.

Someone on AmWx is talking about a "deformation zone" with a thundersnow threat setting up in the vicinity of Long Island...then there's talk that this "deformation zone" is trending or moving southwest. Maybe a CWG expert can educate us on what exactly this means. If this "deformation zone" relates to max snow potential, an hour or two directly over the Arlington Central Library late Sunday might not be such a bad idea!!!

As things seem to be looking, we could be in for five to ten inches of snow, with potential blowing and drifting even after it ends Monday...hard to see how quickly forty-degree temperatures can move in next week, as it may take a couple of days to melt the snow we could be getting.

BTW I found out there's a Christmas night dance tonight at the Hollywood Ballroom in Bethesda. May need to see more details on the time of onset of all this snow before I can make a decision on whether to go.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 25, 2010 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Winter storm warning up for DC 6-10 inches

Posted by: ajmupitt | December 25, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Warnings for DC/PG/Arlington/AA etc are for 6" to 10"

Advisories for Fairfax/PW/MoCo/Fredrick are for 3" to 5".

Obviously a very tight gradient with the precip.

Posted by: jpl1019 | December 25, 2010 3:47 PM | Report abuse

my uneducated, unscientific guess here is the bullseye for accumulation will be within a couple miles of the Gillette Stadium parking lot, with 20-24 inches


Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

6-10 inches for DC/Arlington/Alexandria/Falls Church and 3-5 for Fairfax? This is BS

Posted by: cleombrota | December 25, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

all you snowlovers are invited to shovel my driveway tomorrow

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Looks as though my last inquiry didn't post.

What exactly is a "deformation zone"??? Seems to me it has something to do with snow accumulation maximum and thundersnow potential. Anyway, the weather board chatter is that it's supposed to set up near Long Island, and perhaps move southwestward.

There seems to be a Christmas night dance at the Hollywood Ballroom in Silver Spring tonight. Before I decide to go I may need more info on when all this could start. The Bombo snow potential index is up to 80% by now, and we could get more than the one or two inches the NWS people re talking about.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 25, 2010 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Bombo, without getting too technical and brining in lots of math, a deformation zone is an area of shear in the atmosphere that can have both convergence and divergence along different axis, west/east, north/south. They tend to enhance precipitation.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Noooooo! I planned to drive home to Alexandria from upstate NY (about 75 miles north of New York City) first thing Monday morning but it looks like my plans will be foiled. I can't leave any earlier (my sister would kill me). Is there any hope I'll be able to leave later in the day on Monday or will I just have to resign myself to not coming home until Tuesday (and ask my cat sitter to be sure to leave tons of food and water out for my cat first thing tomorrow morning)? Thanks for the guidance!

Posted by: JLF03 | December 25, 2010 3:56 PM | Report abuse

What's it looking like for Charlottesville?

Posted by: carrerascott | December 25, 2010 4:15 PM | Report abuse

What's it looking like for Charlottesville?

Posted by: carrerascott | December 25, 2010 4:15 PM | Report abuse
______________________________
Well, as you may know, as the day progresses it turns to night and the light gives way to darkness. Same happens in Charlottesville.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 4:47 PM | Report abuse

Well, as you may know, as the day progresses it turns to night and the light gives way to darkness. Same happens in Charlottesville.

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 4:47 PM | Report abuse


Don't you have some farm animals to keep warm?

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | December 25, 2010 4:50 PM | Report abuse

Don't you have some farm animals to keep warm?

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | December 25, 2010 4:50 PM | Report abuse

Please don't feed the trolls. :)

Posted by: wpbaud | December 25, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

Yikes, the clouds are rolling in to central Maryland as I write, and it's becoming darker! It's also very chilly outside and everybody at Denny's is scared to death. Should we worry about the impending doom??

Posted by: rpcv84 | December 25, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

It's been snowing lightly but steadily since 5pm here in central Calvert...have a dusting of 'new' snow already...and radar sure seems like it isn't going to end any time soon.

Posted by: RandyH_Calvert | December 25, 2010 5:50 PM | Report abuse

i have a flight scheduled to land at National at 5:30. Any chance this will be canceled?

Posted by: tony28 | December 25, 2010 7:29 PM | Report abuse

Okay... Where did everything after 5 pm go (except for two posts)? If they cleaned it up, cool...

Posted by: BoaterVA | December 25, 2010 8:43 PM | Report abuse

Many thanks to TWG for the frequent updates on a holiday! Great job. I'm still worried about how much is coming:( Will we get another update tonight on possible adjustments to accumulation forecasts?

Posted by: pbj1 | December 25, 2010 8:50 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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