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Posted at 12:15 PM ET, 01/ 7/2011

Dusting to 1" possible Saturday morning

By Jason Samenow

Left: An image showing the simulated flow at 18,000 (500 mb) in the NAM model with a disturbance shown over west central Virginia (where "x" is). Right: The NAM model's simulated radar for 7 a.m. (note: this simulation probably does not perfectly illustrate exactly where the snow will be but gives a general idea)

A small, but potent upper level disturbance will pivot through the metro region late tonight into tomorrow likely generating intermittent bands of snow.

Start time: Snow would most likely begin between 3 a.m. (western suburbs) and 7 a.m. (eastern suburbs) early Saturday morning.

End time: Any accumulating snow should shut off between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. west to east Saturday. However, scattered flurries and snow showers could continue through late afternoon.

Coverage: Snow may be scattered, with some areas getting hit by heavier bands while other areas just see flurries.

Accumulation: A dusting is a pretty good bet for most spots. And at least a portion of the metro region should get between 0.5-1". The maximum accumulation potential would be around 1-2" but probably would be limited to an isolated area which gets under a heavy snow band. Unfortunately, we can't predict where that would be ahead of time.

Impact: With temperatures dropping below freezing overnight, any snow that falls should stick. This is not a "change my plans" type of event, but some roads could become slick in snow bands that develop early-to-mid Saturday morning. Allow for the possibility that you may need extra time to travel tomorrow morning and use caution.

By Jason Samenow  | January 7, 2011; 12:15 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Remembering the Blizzard of '96 in photos
Next: Tuesday snow risk increases


Weekend snow is always best.
I've got my broom ready for the first snow of 2011.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 7, 2011 12:24 PM | Report abuse

Jason - Thank you for eating away the doubt I have...this was very helpful. Is there a % of Precip you guys can give for early Sat morning snow?

Posted by: parksndc | January 7, 2011 12:35 PM | Report abuse

I'll take whatever snow we can eek out BUT....this one is showing up 24 hours too late for me! An inch of snow starting around 3 am would have scored me a 2-hour delay for sure! 2 hour delay Fri's are AWESOME! (2 hour delay any day is awesome, but Fri is esp sweet!) Don't get me wrong though, I'll be happy to wake up to snow (if it happens!!!!)

Posted by: mamory1975 | January 7, 2011 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Hey Jason,

When is Wes coming out with the Tues storm analysis? It's looking like another miss to the south but I feel like there is still hope because of what the Canadian has been projecting. Although someone mentioned its erratic nature - I did happen to notice it brings the plains feature across a little fast for a perfect phase.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 7, 2011 12:44 PM | Report abuse

The dusting we had this morning in Columbia is long gone already, I hope tomorrow's will stick around longer!

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 7, 2011 12:44 PM | Report abuse


Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 7, 2011 12:46 PM | Report abuse

Just saw an accuweather vid in which Bernie Rano renounced the tuesday storm FOR Margusity. Henry Margusity is a punk and I want his head on a platter.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 7, 2011 12:52 PM | Report abuse

Nothing in Spotsy. last night, still holding steady at 2.75" this winter. Looks like another miss 4 my area 2nite.
At least the temps have been cold, which is good 4 striper fishing at 301 Bridge. We caught 101 yesterday in 5 hrs.
Any idea what the wind will b like on Mon., hoping 2 hit the water again on Mon.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 7, 2011 1:01 PM | Report abuse

An inch or so is OK on Saturday, but I definitely want to see a big kahuna on Tuesday. An Adam Caskey getting pelted by snowballs at Dupont Circle type snow.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 7, 2011 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Henry Margusity, his initials (HM) stand for Hype Master. The guy has an uncanny ability to hype even a flurry into a blizzard. I like this site in that you have great analysis without the all the hype.

Posted by: cloudking1 | January 7, 2011 1:14 PM | Report abuse

bbirnbau, I've written it, Jason will be posting it later today. We wanted to see the european model before putting it up.

Posted by: wjunker | January 7, 2011 1:30 PM | Report abuse

I can't hold it against forecasters for putting it out there and saying what they think... of course no one is right all the time. Henry's got a map up showing 1-3 inches for our area tomorrow...

Lunch Reports for Tomorrow: TK on NBC4 indicated snow showers/flurries similar to last night. ABC7's forecast was pretty similar to CWG.

Posted by: spgass1 | January 7, 2011 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Looks mainly like a Maryland snow...once again...too many of those this La Nina winter!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 7, 2011 1:50 PM | Report abuse


I'd say 60-70% chance for Sat a.m. By comparison, we said 40% for this morning - so we think tomorrow will be a little more widespread.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 7, 2011 1:55 PM | Report abuse


Posted by: parksndc | January 7, 2011 2:34 PM | Report abuse

I just can't figure it mamory1975 a student or a teacher??

Posted by: kolya02 | January 7, 2011 3:55 PM | Report abuse

What site can you go to that has the simulated radar?

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 7, 2011 4:12 PM | Report abuse

bob- does an okay one

Posted by: vtjudyz | January 7, 2011 4:46 PM | Report abuse

I'm a teacher! Although I'm always learning so kinda both! I teach 1st grade in Fairfax County! The way this winter is going I have a feeling it's going to be one of those years that we don't use our snow days so I'm hoping for some delays! :-) Delays are almost better in some ways, you don't lose so much instuctional time & you don't have to make them up!

Posted by: mamory1975 | January 8, 2011 12:16 AM | Report abuse

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