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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 01/30/2011

Forecast: A pretty pleasant Sunday

By Brian Jackson

Midweek storm looks (eventually) more wet than wintry

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

For the middle of winter, some sun and temps near 40 aren't too shabby.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny, a tad warmer. Near 40. | Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low-to-mid 20s. | Tomorrow: Cloudy and colder. Low-to-mid-30s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Our weather peaks today in terms of pleasantness with some sun and an extra degree or two for daytime highs. As we begin the week, though, we take a turn for the worse as a big, broad low-pressure system could impact our weather with precipitation chances as early as late Monday and likely lasting into Wednesday. Current thinking is that after a little snow and/or wintry mix, we'll see mostly rain once the brunt of the storm comes through on Wednesday, assuming the forecast holds of course.

Snow Potential Index: 5 (→) - Just a light coating of snow possible Mon night/Tues. A potential, but far from definite, East Coast storm bears watching for Fri/Sat.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Minor improvement over yesterday as a bit more sun comes through and temperatures take a step or two in the right direction - up. Partly sunny skies help highs to near 40 as winds blow lightly from the northwest. Confidence: High

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds make for a fairly tranquil evening and overnight. Behind a weak cold front, overnight lows may be a smidge cooler than last night, in the low-to-mid 20s. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast into the coming work week, including the latest on the midweek storm threat...

Tomorrow (Monday): They may see a little wintry precipitation out west toward the mountains. But around here we should stay mostly dry beneath cloudy skies, which limit highs to the chilly low-to-mid 30s. With an onshore flow from the east/northeast, some light flurries or freezing mist are possible during the afternoon or evening. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: We may feel the first effects - in the form of light snow or a light wintry mix - of a far-reaching system centered all the way back just east of the Rockies. Temperatures remain below freezing under cloudy skies, with lows in the mid-to-upper 20s. A light coating of snow or ice is possible but not a sure thing. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Tuesday, as the big storm system makes its way east, a warm front extending out from the system's developing low-pressure center puts us at risk for a little more in the way of light snow or a light wintry mix, though there's a chance the precipitation could miss us to the north. A little more accumulation isn't out of the question, though highs in the mid-to-upper 30s should limit the potential for that at least on road surfaces.

Steadier precipitation - in the form of rain or freezing rain - is set to arrive either overnight Tuesday night or toward morning with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Wednesday morning the low is tracking past us to the west and starting to crank up breezes from the south/southeast as it strengthens. So unless the low shifts further east than currently anticipated (which there's always a chance, but for now models are mostly in agreement on the westerly track), then any freezing rain should turn to rain by or during the morning, and it could be quite wet through at least the first half of the day. Highs warm to the 40s to near 50 as the warm front passes, but feel raw with the rain. Winds become gusty from the northwest later in the day as the rain moves off to the northeast. Confidence: Low-Medium

Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast.

By Brian Jackson  | January 30, 2011; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Another midweek storm to track
Next: Big Midwest snow looms, wintry mix & rain for D.C.

Comments

CWG-

Just for a laugh, take a look at the DGEX through hour 168. Coastal low, little bit too warm to snow, but a vigorous upper low trailing it swings through with cold air and quick dump of snow. Sound familiar? Interesting that the map looks almost identical to this past Wednesday.

Posted by: 4seamed | January 30, 2011 7:23 AM | Report abuse

Here's the $64k (PEPCO) question... What're the chances that this new precip, in whatever form, brings down more trees by adding to the weight of the snow already stuck up there? Rain sounds like it could lighten the burden by washing snow off (eventually) but a prelude of snow or ice sounds like we could get some power-loss follies, yes?

Posted by: SSFSCoWA | January 30, 2011 7:24 AM | Report abuse

Saw the tweet from 1:40am and it mentions a Fri/Sat storm yet NWS/NOAA has nothing in their forecast. Are you seeing something on early model runs? Is this next one something that Wes will include in his forecast today? Thanks!

Posted by: kygurl94 | January 30, 2011 7:38 AM | Report abuse

Waiting for Wes' analysis later today- I wonder if we do get the freezing rain when called for what the impact, if any, will be on the roads and power lines.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 30, 2011 7:46 AM | Report abuse

Well, I've given up hope on Wednesday's storm. Hopefully the Friday storm will turn into a major snow event.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 30, 2011 8:03 AM | Report abuse

Observations from an early morning dog walk along areas we've not gone to since the storm.
*Sidewalks that were never shoveled have been trampled and polished to a thick smooth finish fit for neither man nor beast. Hope warmer temps or rain clears this before more wintry mix.
*Wildlife: field was just popping with squirrels; made dog very happy! Most were busy gathering provisions, but there were those two randy pairs chasing each other in circles and up and down trees.
*No sign of birds at all, not even on my balcony stealing straw from the planters. Odd.
*5 day weekend has been very restful and restorative. I'm ready to finish all my half-started home projects and prepare for whatever the week's weather brings.

Posted by: Restondad2 | January 30, 2011 8:17 AM | Report abuse

From the latest NWS discussion:

00Z ECMWF/GFS OPERATIONAL AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI INTO SAT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.

We can hope!  

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | January 30, 2011 8:19 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: greg2010 | January 30, 2011 8:20 AM | Report abuse

wouldn't today be great timing for another snow storm? everybody's already made their "the kids are off" plans. snow days are maxed out (unbelievably, given that wednesday was our first snow over 1.5"...) so a storm today wouldn't extend the school year... oh well...

kygurl94,
the GFS shows a 2.5-5" all-snow event ending about 156 hours out.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 30, 2011 9:09 AM | Report abuse

I just can't think about 'potential' for Friday on a Sunday. I like to watch the evolution of things, but this far out? Not giving anything serious consideration.

I'm looking at Tuesday for now- snow or no, freezing rain would be unpleasant.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 30, 2011 9:09 AM | Report abuse

"@walter-in-fallschurch,
the GFS shows a 2.5-5" all-snow event ending about 156 hours out."

Thanks!!

Posted by: kygurl94 | January 30, 2011 9:29 AM | Report abuse

Can't wait for Weds. Bring on the rain and wash this crud away! Also melt the snow off of my evergreens. We need a nice mid Feb. warm up like we had last year after the blizzard.

Posted by: soyboy99 | January 30, 2011 9:37 AM | Report abuse

We need a nice mid Feb. warm up like we had last year after the blizzard.

Posted by: soyboy99 | January 30, 2011 9:37 AM
-------------------------------------------

I'm not sure what you're talking about. Last February there was no warm up. Temps were below average throughout the entire month. Besides, I'd rather have a warm up in the spring. Winter heat waves cause snow opportunities to diminish significantly ;-)

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/climate/cliplot/KDCA201002plot-2.png

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 30, 2011 9:48 AM | Report abuse

@soyboy99, we really NEED more precipitation, period, but I won't mind if this next storm is least partly rain for the reasons you mention - my shrubbery took a major damage hit last week with this uber-wet snow.

On an unrelated note, I had reason to be traveling through Clarendon to a swim meet in Arlington last evening and passed the "Clarendon Ballroom" - presumably the place where Bombo works and talks about the weekly dances? Neat neighborhood...

Posted by: ToBeBlunt | January 30, 2011 9:48 AM | Report abuse

How much moisture are we talking about with this midweek storm? We haven't had a whole lot of melting in the western burbs (today might change that) so could some flooding be an issue if we get a lot of rain and everything melts quickly?

Posted by: mudbucket | January 30, 2011 9:49 AM | Report abuse

Hmmmm.
Dangerous words & phrases in this forecast.

For tomorrow possibilities of "freezing mist" in the afternoon & evening. Oh joy. One of those things that is almost impossible to accurately & precisely predict until it's too late & then you find yourself having to sleep overnight in your cubicle.

Tomorrow night: "Temperatures remain below freezing"...."a light coating of snow or ice is possible". Lovely. Just what we need right now. Slap a layer of ice on that mess out there; bring down a few more trees.

My infatuation with winter precip doesn't include the ice variety. This may be another tough weather week. At least right now there seems to be a slight chance of a late week SNOWstorm.


Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 30, 2011 9:56 AM | Report abuse

What is that bright light outside? The sun! I see the sun!

Posted by: kathyb39 | January 30, 2011 10:45 AM | Report abuse

Both Accueather and TWC are calling for almost half and inch of ice/freezing rain for MoCo, north and west. oh oh.

Posted by: RJ16 | January 30, 2011 10:52 AM | Report abuse

soyboy99,
i'd give you your mid-feb like last year for an early feb series of giant snow storms like last year.... too bad weather's non-negotiable...

FIREDRAGON47, you said,
"Dangerous words & phrases in this forecast....freezing mist...a layer of ice..."

i wish people wouldn't use snowfanity 'round here.

brian, CWG,
why are people so sure this mid-week thing will be snowfanity, but if this were predicted to be a snow event people would be cautiously warning how we can't be sure of anything this far out?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 30, 2011 10:54 AM | Report abuse

CWG,
i just got this "movable type" error:

------------
An error occurred
Can't call method "remove" on an undefined value
------------

i did not re-submit my comment because i figured that's what causes those double posts to occur. CWG, do you know what's up with those errors?

kathyb39,
looks like it's gonna be a bad day to be a snow serpent...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 30, 2011 11:03 AM | Report abuse

Walter - your serpent is awesome! I hope it stays cold enough today that he doesn't turn in to a big blob. And hopefully, we'll get more snow soon so you can create a friend for him!

Posted by: kathyb39 | January 30, 2011 11:09 AM | Report abuse

Sun in Ashburn! You've been missed old friend.

Can't wait til I can once again spend evenings on the deck watching the planes take off from Dulles.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 30, 2011 11:11 AM | Report abuse

CWG forecast without "snowfanity" words:
Good chance of naughty boo boo weather Mon-Tues-Wed. Stay tuned.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 30, 2011 11:13 AM | Report abuse

Notice I said more SNOW
*does the NO ICE dance*

Posted by: kathyb39 | January 30, 2011 11:18 AM | Report abuse

Walter,

I think when snow's involved, we are cautioned frequently when it is too early to determine to keep us snow lovers from freaking out in rapturous joy.

I really hope any icing is insignificant.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 30, 2011 11:29 AM | Report abuse

RJ16,

Half an inch of ICE???

**hits giant panic button - - alarm goes off**

Oh gosh. That would put this city to a standstill. I imagine there will be a lot of drivers on the beltway rolling down their windows and using "snowfanity"!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 30, 2011 11:42 AM | Report abuse

I don't think half an inch is likely.. the GFS and NAM are both showing minimal icing.

Posted by: Dylan0513 | January 30, 2011 11:44 AM | Report abuse

No snow next weekend. It is Super Bowl weekend. Last year, the blizzards messed up everyone's parties. Not this year too.

Posted by: epjd | January 30, 2011 11:59 AM | Report abuse

NWS is calling for .4 of ice in Carroll County. Hope that doesn't happen. I don't see how we don't get quite a bit of rain out of this one on Wednesday...all the snow that's left will be gone by Thursday most likely. Then maybe we re-load on Saturday. 6z GFS looked good. 12z looks rainy. Euro looks snowier. Absolutely hate rain in the winter...wish the storm would just miss us to the west on Wednesday.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 30, 2011 12:04 PM | Report abuse

I love freezing rain. Automatic days off work. Come on ice.

Posted by: RJ16 | January 30, 2011 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Perhaps we can create a "Snow Bomb Warning" this afternoon for the western suburbs. Baseball-size chunks of snow and ice are falling from the trees and hitting with force. I just had a few slam into my windshield while driving.

Posted by: Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang | January 30, 2011 12:34 PM | Report abuse

Lots of sunshine & melting in Centreville.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 30, 2011 12:54 PM | Report abuse

sun here too... and 43.9 degrees (in the shade) already and rising fast. we've zoomed past the promised "near 40" and quickly headed for the upper 40s. i can see a near-constant dripping and shedding of snow clumps from tree branches. the stuff that fell wednesday and friday really stuck up there. oh well, it was pretty while it lasted.

btw, next weekend's "snowstorm" just disappeared (to light light rain or nothing) from the GFS...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 30, 2011 12:57 PM | Report abuse

We are experiencing a lot of melting here in NE Loudoun, but I haven't seen any grass yet. Clouds have actually returned in the past 10 - 15 minutes.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 30, 2011 1:09 PM | Report abuse

This is what accuweather has for Tuesday night...
Periods of sleet and freezing rain in the evening followed by periods of heavy ice late for DAMASCUS MD.

CAN DAMASCUS' WEATHER BE TOO DIFFERNET FROM DC?

Posted by: RJ16 | January 30, 2011 1:20 PM | Report abuse

Folks-Wes' update on the Mon night through Wed storm coming up in about 45 minutes.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 30, 2011 1:29 PM | Report abuse

I'm in Fairfax and I have to WALK to a doctor's appt. Tuesday morning at 7:30am. Am I gonna be walking/falling in ice? Your forecast for that morning has a lot of "May" and "Possible's" in it.

Posted by: rwalker66 | January 30, 2011 1:39 PM | Report abuse

Walter, this is what the GFS has for MoCo..
MONDAY NIGHT
LO: 22
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

TUESDAY
HI: 32
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. A CHANCE OF SLEET OR SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT
LO: 32
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

....disappeared?

Posted by: RJ16 | January 30, 2011 1:41 PM | Report abuse

Hey CWG - this is my first post here, but I'm seeking advice. I know it is quite a distance from DC and at an elevation of 4800', but any thoughts on what this week's storm may do out at Snowshoe, WV? I'm hoping to drive there Wednesday afternoon and stay until Friday. I'm hoping they stay cold enough, but the forecast of 49 here scares me! I obviously want it to only snow there. Any suggestion for a trustworthy weather site for Snowshoe?

Thanks! I love the analysis you provide here!

Posted by: rwr4a | January 30, 2011 1:50 PM | Report abuse

@RJ16,

He was talking about the WEEKEND storm, not the early week one, I believe.

Posted by: megamuphen | January 30, 2011 1:54 PM | Report abuse

indeed, megamuphen, he was.

this week's event generates absolutely no excitement for me. i'm only watching it out of the corner of my eye in hopes that somehow it might become a snow event.... right now it's just a waste of a snow chance: a waste of prime winter days and a waste of precipitation. it's quite a shame because now they're talking about it as a 2-3 day event! sigh... sad... very sad... what a waste...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 30, 2011 2:12 PM | Report abuse

RJ16 - I think megamuphen is right, Walter meant the weekend storm. However, I noticed something interesting about the NWS forecast you posted....Tuesday's high is 32, with plain rain? Can't wait for Wes' update!
Sun is gone at my house in Howard County :-(

Posted by: kathyb39 | January 30, 2011 2:14 PM | Report abuse

rwr4a: I'm guessing you've already checked the NWS forecast for Snowshoe WV, but if not here's the link. Looks to me as if Wednesday warmth will quickly and deeply go into the freezer. Have fun in my home state!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Snowshoe&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.4091&textField2=-79.9957&e=0

Posted by: tinkerbelle | January 30, 2011 2:27 PM | Report abuse

Let me tell you guys why I love winter. My wife and I are both teacher for the same county. So every time we get snow, sleet or freezing rain...guess what happens? we get to stay home together, drink some chocolate and watch movies lol. Kinda selfish considering most people are not teachers and have to drive, I know. But I can not get enough of it!! Can someone post the link to the new update. I get lost in this website..HINT HINT CWG...the sit needs to be easier to navigate.

Posted by: RJ16 | January 30, 2011 2:28 PM | Report abuse

Did you see that the LIMO did not remove the snow from the roof of the car!?!

Building a snowman!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5UemDcF7Jk

Posted by: greg2010 | January 30, 2011 8:20 AM

Posted by: StevenMark | January 30, 2011 2:34 PM | Report abuse

rwr4a, I wouldn't expect too much fluffy powder as it looks like they'll see more heavy wet stuff or ice, but after the storm moves on later wed, it will be plenty cold with some upslope snows with an inch or two of fresh stuff on the way.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 30, 2011 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Let's all root for the storm that might take place next weekend. We need another massive storm, with huge areas of power outages, horrible traffic jams and other forms of chaos. I love it!

Posted by: salanatoli | January 30, 2011 4:16 PM | Report abuse

@tinkerbelle and @Brian - thanks. I'll just keep an eye on the NWS forecast and try my best to interpret the model predictions CWG provides. I guess I'm going regardless...but I just have to hope they don't get too much rain on top of the mountain. Either way, a bad day on the slopes is still better than being in the office.

Posted by: rwr4a | January 30, 2011 5:31 PM | Report abuse

oh, please please weather gods, no ice on my birthday! Please! *x'es fingers*

Posted by: angelicat | January 30, 2011 9:29 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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