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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 01/10/2011

Forecast: Cold week with snow Tuesday

By Jason Samenow

Light accumulations Tuesday afternoon/evening

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Sunday's cold but without the wind. We'll manage.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny and cold. 33-37. | Tonight: Increasing clouds. 22-26. | Tomorrow: Snow developing, especially in the afternoon. 29-32. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The winter of 2010-2011 has been undeniably cold, but when it comes to significant snow we've been denied. The week upcoming keeps the cold coming with a chance we'll finally have enough snow to shovel by Tuesday night. However, as we've talked about for days, the chance of a major dumping of snow is slim & there's a chance of very little snow. The heaviest snow is likely well to the northeast of Washington.

Snow Potential Index: 7 (↑) - Odds are good (but not 100%) for a light snow event Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): It's a pretty ordinary cold mid-winter day. Weak high pressure over the region supplies some sun though we may see some high clouds streaming in as low pressure begins its approach from the south. Highs are in the mid-30s. Winds are significantly reduced from Sunday, from the northwest at just about 10 mph. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clouds slowly increase with just a remote (less than 20%) chance of light snow toward morning. I wouldn't expect major rush hour problems or school delays/cancellations. The best chance of meaningful snow waits until later Tuesday. Lows range from the low 20s in the colder suburbs to the mid-to-upper 20s downtown. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through next weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): We'll have cloudy skies and an increasing chance of snow as the day wears on. Morning snow chances climb from 20% around 8 a.m. to about 40% by noon. By mid-afternoon, there's a 70% chance of snow. Any snow in the morning is probably light, with both snow coverage and intensity increasing toward evening. High are near freezing but drop back into the upper 20s to near 30 during snow. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Snow is likely (80% chance) through 2 or 3 a.m. and could briefly be moderate to heavy, especially northeast of Washington. Total accumulations are probably in the 1-4" range but subject to adjustment (we'll have a comprehensive storm update in the early afternoon). Overnight lows range from 20-25 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Cold high pressure builds into the region from the west for Wednesday through Friday. Highs each day are in the 30s with overnight lows in the teens to low 20s (suburbs to city). Wednesday is probably windy behind Tuesday's storm, with winds gradually diminishing by Friday. Confidence: Medium-High

On Saturday, we may warm up close to 40 before the next Arctic cold front pushes through Saturday night into Sunday. Said front could produce some snow showers, but probably nothing significant. There's an outside chance an area of low pressure could form along the front and develop into a bigger storm, but that scenario seems pretty unlikely at this point. Lows Saturday night are in the 20s to near 30, with highs Sunday in the 30s under variably cloudy skies. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Jason Samenow  | January 10, 2011; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Live blogging the models for Tues. snow event
Next: About the Winter Storm Watch east of D.C.

Comments

I'm getting confused, The NWS service issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for Howard, Baltimore, PG, St. Mary, and east.... Has something changed? That they must issued WINTER STORM WATCH and not for the DC Area... You think the WATCH MAY EXPAND??

Posted by: MNguyen6551 | January 10, 2011 5:11 AM | Report abuse

Don't tease me bro!

Posted by: SusanMarie2 | January 10, 2011 5:25 AM | Report abuse

Nice one Susan!

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | January 10, 2011 5:43 AM | Report abuse

This winter is shaping up to where North Carolina could get more snow than we do! Aaargghh!

Posted by: jaybird926 | January 10, 2011 6:14 AM | Report abuse

@Jaybird, yup, it's feeling like 12/26 deja vu all over again. Looking at Mosaic the Carolina snow is heading almost due east.

When the secondary low forms off the Carolina Coast, it will probably scoot too far to the east. Tom Kieran is predicting 2-4", which may include some sleet. Optimistic?

Alas, the models for the 1/20 storm now show it, too, sliding off to the east. Snowicide for us!

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 10, 2011 6:33 AM | Report abuse

jason,
i appreciate how you guys haven't been overplaying things with the SPI, but isn't "7" a bit low? i mean if it's on a scale of 1-10, doesn't 7 equate to 70%? are you saying there's "only" a 70% chance of snow tomorrow?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 10, 2011 6:40 AM | Report abuse

Excellent question, Walter. The NWS, as well as the "At a glance" box at the top of this page, left-hand column, both say 100%. Perhaps Jason or someone else from CWG can explain the difference.

Posted by: NorthFork1 | January 10, 2011 7:05 AM | Report abuse

@Walter, much as I love snow and hope more snow birds can be sculpted in Fairfax, I think CWG is spot on re: this forecast. From Philly northeastward, yes, it's going to be a big one. For us, quite possibly another snowfail. Even a 7 SPI may be optimistic.

Hopefully, the Snowmaggedon book will arrive in the next day or so and I can experience snow vicariously, which seems to be all we can do thus far this winter.

If the forecasts are wrong about tomorrow , I look forward to seeing photos of snow flamingos in Falls Church!

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 10, 2011 7:09 AM | Report abuse

NWS has Carroll County in the Winter Storm Watch for 5 or more inches of snow as well. Justin Berk has Howard, Carroll, and Baltimore counties in his 4+ map, while DC is in the 3+ map. This does feel awfully familiar to the 26th. Haven't had a chance to look at any updated models this morning yet...or Bastardi. Everyone seems to agree that the moderate snow will hold off until late afternoon at least.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 10, 2011 7:30 AM | Report abuse

1-4 inches? My heart is breaking, especially because NBC is calling for a mix. Boooooooo!

Posted by: kmill67 | January 10, 2011 7:31 AM | Report abuse

Re: the widely varying forecasts out there - the reason is that they don't know what's going to happen, but they're pretty sure it won't be much. In my recent experience, you're better off sticking with CWG throughout any winter event.

Posted by: prickles1009 | January 10, 2011 7:37 AM | Report abuse

Seems like every place along the east coast is getting snow this winter except DC. Altanta is getting 3" to 6" today. My computer models are again showing nothing but a trace to 1" with some sleet for DC, Fairfax, PW and Loundon Counties! The big question is when does it start and how will the afternoon rush be impacted.

Posted by: Firedude | January 10, 2011 7:48 AM | Report abuse

I'll be honest maybe the model one of the model NAM (HINT HINT) is the only one see the right thing, where more snow is possible... But who knows......

Posted by: MNguyen6551 | January 10, 2011 7:49 AM | Report abuse

Any last chance this moves west?? Pls????
;(

Posted by: moo1 | January 10, 2011 7:54 AM | Report abuse

Howard County Winter Storm Watch. ME GUSTA.

Anyone know what the Euro said last night?

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 10, 2011 8:04 AM | Report abuse

I'm not happy with this starting so late in the day. It's like a worst case scenario - light snow starting mid-afternoon creating a hell-ish commute home (I travel about 20 miles, takes about an hour on a good day), but only getting an inch or so and not even having a delay the next day. The only thing worse is that god-awful 33 degree rain we get so often. I'm not asking for a lot of snow, just enough for at least a delay on Wed!

Posted by: mamory1975 | January 10, 2011 8:08 AM | Report abuse

Aw, c'mon..the prospect of a miss is depressing. Was looking forward to a possible break from getting kids up for the miserable 630 AM school bus...

Posted by: littles1 | January 10, 2011 8:22 AM | Report abuse

Aw, c'mon..the prospect of a miss is depressing. Was looking forward to a possible break from getting kids up for the miserable 630 AM school bus...

Posted by: littles1 | January 10, 2011 8:22 AM | Report abuse

@NorthFork1

The At-A-Glance forecast is by the National Weather Service (as it says in the box), not us (our forecast is what you read in narrative). We have the NWS forecast there to provide snapshot info. Furthermore, the SPI is for ACCUMULATING snow. We think there's about an 80% chance of snow, with a 70% or so chance of accumulating snow.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 8:23 AM | Report abuse

*

The sound of my snow hope bubble being popped.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 10, 2011 8:40 AM | Report abuse

Looks like we may again get more inches of salt on the pavement than actual snow. :(

Posted by: dantebouchot | January 10, 2011 8:48 AM | Report abuse

OK...so 0-2 inches in Fairfax/Reston area is what I'm getting from the gang forecast...which sounds, unfortunately, like every other storm we have had this winter. So, yet another non-event...after a lot of hype, again. Over it. Man, NBC4 is really blowing this forecast, everyone in my office is asking me if the 2-4 inches of snow with ice mixed in is real...I don't know where they're getting the mix idea. Apparently they’re saying the mixing will keep the accumulation down, I heard this on NPR this morning too…someone at NBC4 is greatly mistaken!

Posted by: parksndc | January 10, 2011 8:52 AM | Report abuse

@JerryFloyd1,

LOL at Snowicide and Snowfail...
******************************

Maybe all this snowfail is really setting us up for some monster snowstorm in the future where DC gets pummeled...

Then again if we can't get snow why can't it be 72 degrees?

Posted by: Rcmorgan | January 10, 2011 8:53 AM | Report abuse

OK...so 0-2 inches in Fairfax/Reston area is what I'm getting from the gang forecast...which sounds, unfortunately, like every other storm we have had this winter. So, yet another non-event...after a lot of hype, again. Over it. Man, NBC4 is really blowing this forecast, everyone in my office is asking me if the 2-4 inches of snow with ice mixed in is real...I don't know where they're getting the mix idea. Apparently they’re saying the mixing will keep the accumulation down, I heard this on NPR this morning too…someone at NBC4 is greatly mistaken!

Posted by: parksndc | January 10, 2011 8:53 AM | Report abuse

GOOD GRIEF?
We've been DENIED snow?

Have you lost your mind?? Since when do we enjoy the traffic gridlock, accidents, hardship for our citizens with ((%%$%^&* snow.

Lenn Harley
Lovettsville, VA

Posted by: lenn1 | January 10, 2011 8:55 AM | Report abuse

The less snow the better. I normally don't MIND a certain amount of snow, but last winter broke my spirit. If we go this WHOLE winter without more than an inch or two here and there, I'm fine with that.

Posted by: Gunga2009 | January 10, 2011 9:09 AM | Report abuse

My wife is pregnant and due in 3 weeks, so I for one am hoping for little to no snow this winter!

Posted by: Axel2 | January 10, 2011 9:12 AM | Report abuse

I see we have about three less-than-lovers of snow in the last few minutes. Good to hear from you all - I will label you the snow pragmatists!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 9:36 AM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

SPI is for accumulating snow, not just snow. Though it does seem the "accumulating" language is not shown in the SPI box in this post (old template). We'll update that. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 9:52 AM | Report abuse

Sorry, jaybird926, but I'm glad the snow seems to be staying in the Carolinas! After last year, these dustings here and there are a welcome change. I guess I'm the minority, being the anti-snow camp.

Posted by: MoCoPride | January 10, 2011 10:04 AM | Report abuse

I like snow when I can stay home. I too have a commute of about 25 miles that takes an hour or so without weather issues. I have the option of telecommuting, which is good, but it seems silly to telecommute tomorrow if snow's not going to start until the afternoon. At least I have a window view from my desk, so I can probably leave when the stuff starts. . . .

Posted by: scarlet_begonia | January 10, 2011 10:05 AM | Report abuse

Sorry, jaybird926, but I'm glad the snow seems to be staying in the Carolinas! After last year, these dustings here and there are a welcome change. I guess I'm the minority, being the anti-snow camp.

Posted by: MoCoPride | January 10, 2011 10:05 AM | Report abuse

You can't fool me! I'm heading straight for the grocery store and hardware store for all supplies. This storm will make the ones from last year white with envy.

Posted by: shoveit | January 10, 2011 10:12 AM | Report abuse

Thanks 300! ^5

Posted by: SusanMarie2 | January 10, 2011 10:42 AM | Report abuse

Hey fellow snow lovers, we have six solid weeks of snow potential left, and if memory serves me correctly late Jan/Feb is our sweet spot. So look at tomorrow as a pump primer.

Posted by: Kairos123 | January 10, 2011 10:45 AM | Report abuse

"Hey fellow snow lovers, we have six solid weeks of snow potential left, and if memory serves me correctly late Jan/Feb is our sweet spot. So look at tomorrow as a pump primer."

I'd say about eight or nine weeks left, through mid-March; remember the blizzard of 1993 hit on March 13, at the tail end of I recall as otherwise being a scanty season for winter precipitation. (Just please not on March 7 here or March 8 in France or Germany because I have a flight to catch then!)

Posted by: mkarns | January 10, 2011 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Well Kairos123 that's certainly the right attitude to have. The snowiest time of the year is not mid January but late January/early February so winter isn't done yet. But yeah so far it has been pretty darn lame. Don't need what we got last winter. Especially don't want any ice.

Yeah y'all it could be worse. Woke up and had to talk my mother out of going to work. They had probably the worse ice storm in years if not decades (my hometown sits in a valley so rarely sees an ice storm even if there's one 100 miles north in Atlanta). I'll take a snowless winter over one day of ice.

Posted by: TerrenceM | January 10, 2011 12:11 PM | Report abuse

I'm not in favor of this storm. As I posted above it's timed for the first Clarendon Ballroom dance class & swing dance of the year.

Once again the Much-Unneeded Rain" folks are messing with my Tuesday night dances. They ought to schedule for Feb. 1 when they can hit a dance-disrupting "private event" instead of the Tuesday night swing dance.

Frankly I was hoping this storm would hit tonight and tomorrow morning...and be offshore by dance time!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 10, 2011 12:35 PM | Report abuse

I think the snow is skipping the DC area this winter due to the fact that last winter, the storms caused a so-called "Blizzard Baby Boom"!
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=25&sid=2117093

Also, I think the government will look into this & not give so many snow days! Lol!

Posted by: taurvon | January 10, 2011 12:52 PM | Report abuse

I think the snow is skipping the DC area this winter due to the fact that last winter, the storms caused a so-called "Blizzard Baby Boom"!
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=25&sid=2117093

Also, I think the government will look into this & not give so many snow days! Lol!

Posted by: taurvon | January 10, 2011 12:53 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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