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Posted at 9:45 AM ET, 01/21/2011

Forecast: Some of winter's coldest air yet

By Camden Walker

Frigid weekend; early-week snow?

Updated at 9:45 a.m., originally posted at 5:00 a.m.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

While it is Friday, we have to deal with blustery and cold conditions. Isolated a.m. commuting challenges?
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Morning flurries, clearing and windy. Low-to-mid 30s. | Tonight: Fair but frigid. Near 10 to upper teens. | Tomorrow: A few clouds. Cold, less windy. Mid-to-upper 20s. | Sunday: Partly-to-mostly sunny. 30-35. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Thanks, January, for really pulling out the stops. After any remnant snow flurries exit during the a.m., temperatures are going to struggle to get above freezing today for highs. That continues to be the case through perhaps even Tuesday. Potentially taking the winning prize at coldest day yet this winter: Saturday. High temperatures tomorrow are likely staying in the 20s! Are you prepared -- or even joyful -- for the incoming frigid air? Be careful out there!

Snow Potential Index: 4 (↓) - Snow or a snow & rain mix show up in the late Mon-Wed time frame. Still too far out to have much confidence.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 


Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): After last night's snow showers, mainly north of the city, a few more flurries or quick snow showers move through some spots this morning. Early temperatures range from the upper 20s to low 30s, nudging barely upward into maybe the the low-to-mid 30s during the day. The northwest winds between 10-20 mph (gusting near 35 mph!) really negate any "warmth" from the sunshine. January at its finest? Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Start mentally preparing for a very cold and often breezy night. Low temperatures in the teens region-wide feel more like single digits with the northwest winds 10-15 mph early and slackening late. We could see a few clouds tonight, but nothing to plan around except the unending cold! Please bundle up. Check on the elderly if you can, and call the hypothermia hotline if you see anyone needing help. Confidence: Medium

How much should we worry about the weather next week? Keep reading...

Tomorrow (Saturday): Cold... Really cold. Breezy conditions continue, but much better (less wind) than Friday. High temperatures may struggle into the mid-20s in the coldest spots north & west of town. But a few of us may be lucky and near the 30 degree mark. Sunshine battles some clouds -- especially in the afternoon -- which could filter it at times. Winds out of the northwest should be modest in the 5 to 10 mph range. Please dress in layers and break out thermal underwear, even! Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: It's again very cold. Some clouds streaming overhead dont really help insulate us from plummeting temperatures. Evening 20s head down into at least the mid-to-upper teens for almost everyone. National Airport could still bottom near thr 20 degree mark, because of its proximity to warmer river waters. Wow, I need to find my scarf, ear muffs, and maybe even a ski mask. Confidence: Medium

Sunday: Luckily we should have a good deal of sunshine to help with temperatures near 30 to maybe the mid-30s. Are you still a fan of sunny but wintertime weather? Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

On Sunday night the Arctic high pressure system over our region is still dominant. Temperatures quickly fall off to near 20 in the suburbs and around the low 20s downtown. Only a few clouds around, though. Confidence: Medium

Monday looks increasingly cloudy, but with some sunshine to be enjoyed in the morning hours with any luck. High temperatures are again struggling to the freezing mark. Perhaps mid-30s downtown if we are lucky. By the evening, there is a slight 10-20% chance (as of now) for a few flakes. With our cold streak of below-freezing temperatures, any flakes would likely stick somewhat quickly. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tuesday is tricky (yet again) with the threat of snow or a wintry mix including rain. Uncertainty reigns for now and temperatures may poke into the middle or even upper 30s, especially if precipitation holds off through much of the day as it seems it might. Right now there appears to be a 40-50% chance of precipitation at some point during the day. But a lot depends on the track and timing of the storm system that could skirt our area or track close enough to give us rain. Confidence: Low

By Camden Walker  | January 21, 2011; 9:45 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Snow struggling to develop & may not
Next: AM round-up: last night's "storm", cold & more

Comments

NWS, State College: "THE SITUATION WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHED WITH GREAT INTEREST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS."

NWS, Blacksburg VA: "CANT EVEN BEGIN TO GUESS WHAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE BUT IT IS A SYSTEM THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS."

NWS, Sterling, VA (been burned all winter long): "I DON`T WANT TO MOVE TOO QUICKLY IN A MORE PESSIMISTIC DIRECTION. WE`VE GOT SVRL DAYS TO WATCH HOW THIS DVLPS."

Posted by: eric654 | January 21, 2011 5:48 AM | Report abuse

Well, if there's even a chance that it MIGHT be a snow to rain event for next week's storm, you can bet in THIS particular winter that it will probably be mostly rain or next to no precip at all...

Posted by: ToBeBlunt | January 21, 2011 6:01 AM | Report abuse

I've checked out the competition and Walter does not need to worry.

http://www.networkworld.com/slideshows/2011/011311-ice-sculptures.html#slide1

Posted by: eric654 | January 21, 2011 6:12 AM | Report abuse

Ok..i just read this mornings forecast on several sites and tv to include here. all agree that theres a possibility of snow mon/tues time frame.

Im gonna try and not tune in or listen to radio or check on here until monday night..

maby i will get a pleasant suprise..odds are against it i know..lol

Its gonna be so hard not to look at the forecast but im gonna try it..lol

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 21, 2011 6:23 AM | Report abuse

the only problem is i have a bloom grocery store across the street and if any station calls for the all so famous 1-3 amount for the forecast tues it will be packed and i will know somethings brewing. LOL

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 21, 2011 6:28 AM | Report abuse

CWG-

The track of the low shown on both the ECMWF and the Canadian (and in a way the GFS) shows a low of the coast of SC that eventually cuts up through the NC/VA piedmont, THEN off the NJ coast. Wouldn't that be a very unusual track?

Does it make more sense if it cuts further west up the spine of the App. mountains towards Pittsburgh or just hugs the coast?

Posted by: 4seamed | January 21, 2011 6:34 AM | Report abuse

Despite the forecasts leading up to today, despite what my own eyes showed me last night, I STILL woke up this morning and pressed my nose to the frigid window, scanning anxiously for any sign of white.

This winter has not defeated my eternal optimism yet!

Bring on the next snow potential! I'm ready to hope again :)

Now the only question is, to walk or not to walk to yoga tomorrow morning. It is going to be coooooooold!!! It's a twenty minute walk. Might make me a popsicle, unable to bend into downward facing dog.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 21, 2011 6:45 AM | Report abuse

got 6" of snow last night here in falls church. still coming down pretty heavily. looks like we finally got one that over-performed. surprised i haven't read anything about school closings. kind of irresponsible, i think.

*awakes from sleep-typing*

oh...wait...nevermind. it was all a dream. we got 0.0" here, as usual...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 21, 2011 6:59 AM | Report abuse

Boy, oh boy the GFS looks fantastic for Tue/Wed:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p60_132m.gif

Let's just hope it's all snow :)

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 21, 2011 7:00 AM | Report abuse

I have to agree with bobby boy, if the the GFS verifies and the 540 line moves a bit south east, this could be a major snow storm. That said, over 100 hrs out, La Nina, and storm trends this winter, I am not going too excited until 24hrs out. I will keep a close eye on things though.

Posted by: snowlover | January 21, 2011 7:05 AM | Report abuse

thanks eric. the ice ones were pretty nice. never tried actual ice - just snow. like the space invaders snow one. the R2D2 snow one was pretty "cool" too. looks like blue "paint" or something was applied, though i consider that cheating...
---------------

can someone explain where i can see the qpf in the euro models. when i go to this site

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

recommended by "the gang", i see the ECMWF model.

1) where it says "select region/time", do i choose "NA view" or "NA(-12)"?

2)whichever one i select, it opens a menu on the left. from those menus, no matter what i select i can only see various "heights" wind speeds and temperatures - no qpf.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 21, 2011 7:17 AM | Report abuse

So, I guess last night's system was another no-shnow.

Posted by: mcaicedo | January 21, 2011 7:18 AM | Report abuse

This winter has definitely been like Charlie Brown and the football with regard to DC snowstorms. I just looked and DC has officially had 3.7" of snow this winter. Memphis has had 9.3", Atlanta 5.9".

February likes to snow in the Mid-Atlantic, and we certainly have more cold air coming, so it isn't over yet.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 21, 2011 7:19 AM | Report abuse

Wx Weenies Convention - begins after 12z GFS run today. Its going to be a long 100 hours until we get a better look at Tues/Wed. Regardless - science is telling us that we best be paying attention this weekend to what may happen early next week. Science just beat Ken Jennings in trivia. I'll be listening.

Posted by: DullesARC | January 21, 2011 7:50 AM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch,
As far as I know the free ECMWF sites don't give qpf maps. If they do and somebody knows where to access them I would like to know also. Another good site for models is http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html.
I hope we get enough snow soon to see some cool Walter snow photos.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | January 21, 2011 7:56 AM | Report abuse

I was happy that I at least got to scrape a layer of ice off the windshield this morning. Got a little less than a dusting in Glen Burnie.

Posted by: ResQgal | January 21, 2011 7:59 AM | Report abuse

Such is the winter of our discontent

Posted by: ennepe68 | January 21, 2011 8:15 AM | Report abuse

Nada in Falls Church this morning. And the newspaper was late. *grumble grumble*

Still, these are quality problems.

Posted by: wiredog | January 21, 2011 8:17 AM | Report abuse

We received a heavy coating of snow last night near Oakton, VA. I'll be very interested to see if the 12z models today hold on to the storm for early next week.

Posted by: Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 8:19 AM | Report abuse

I am from Memphis and have lived in DC for the last 10 years.Typically I am the envy of my hometown snowlovers but not this year! That fact posted above by Matt is really incredible. We NEVER get snow in Memphis. The fact that they have that much more snow than us already is really unusual.

Posted by: alcw1 | January 21, 2011 8:22 AM | Report abuse

alcw1, I messed up- that 9" total for season is from Nashville. But I did look up Memphis and they are also ahead of us at 5.3" so far this winter. It is pretty crazy!

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 21, 2011 8:32 AM | Report abuse

Regarding Monday night Tuesday event, it should be plenty cold to start and slow to warm at low levels.

There could be a major ice storm somewhere in the general mid Atlantic area. Whoever is lucky enough to stay mostly snow could get a major accumulation.

Would like to see a few more model runs before going off the deep end, especially given our dismal track record this year.

Posted by: frontieradjust | January 21, 2011 8:35 AM | Report abuse

Nice coating on the ground up north in Howard Co. this am. Too bad it waited until well after midnight to show.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 8:46 AM | Report abuse

I'm sure you guys remember a few winter's back when we had that ridiculous day when the temperatures barely got to 10 degrees, during the day! It was cold in the Midwest too, colder.

I understand that cold air moderates as it hits land but Minnesota is experiencing some ridiculous cold today. So how is it that the temperature will moderate some 60 degrees by the time it gets here? -40 there and 20 here tomorrow?

Posted by: authorofpoetry | January 21, 2011 8:49 AM | Report abuse

0.00 inches east of Front Royal... saw some flurries this morning...

Posted by: spgass1 | January 21, 2011 8:55 AM | Report abuse

Centreville VA had some flake magic very late last night.
Each of the 47 flakes on our front yard were very very special.
OK, there were more than 47 flakes on the yard. I was out there too, so that makes 48.
Has everyone prepared their weekend cocoon?

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 21, 2011 8:57 AM | Report abuse

Good forecast. Dusting of a trace in Laytonsville which is blowing away as we speak. Lots of icy spots on the roads.

TO all the snow lovers starting to despair: Remember that last year we thought the winter was over at this point. ;-)

As Walter pointed out last year (with a link to the Dumb and Dumber clip), "There's still a chance".

Posted by: dprats21 | January 21, 2011 9:00 AM | Report abuse

I'm surprised this post only listed precip on Tuesday as 40-50%. Regardless of precip type, last night themodels all came into very quick agreedment for the 0z runs about a pretty sizeable storm riding the coast in that time frame.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 21, 2011 9:03 AM | Report abuse

Another 0.0" of snow for Herndon last night. Looking forward to Spring, this Winter has been a heart-breaker.

Posted by: dantebouchot | January 21, 2011 9:08 AM | Report abuse

CWG - Question about the long range models. Do they take into account factors such as La Nina or El Nino?

It seems as though this winter there is almost always "potential" for big, or bigger, snows in the long range models, but as the day approaches, it dies out.

I may be wrong but without the strong southern jet (due to La Nina) this year, a big storm just isn't gonna happen no matter what the long range guidance may say.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 21, 2011 9:18 AM | Report abuse

Barely a dusting in Burke . . YAHOO!

Posted by: Gunga2009 | January 21, 2011 9:20 AM | Report abuse

authorofpoetry - yes the arctic air modification between MN and here is about right. Contributing factors to the warming air was the pace at which it moved eastward toward DC. Giving it time to warm. Snowpack isn't the deepest (consistent deep snowpack)between DC and MN. Also, and possibly the most impact, is our position with respect to the Appalachians. They are tall enough to capture some of the last COLDEST air (note Elkins WV always is markedly colder than places just east of the mountains) also, we in DC usually benefit from the slightest downsloping compressional-warming breeze off the east slopes of the mountains. I can throw in proximity to Bay & Ocean, but I think I've given you a number of factors that help explain, right?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 9:26 AM | Report abuse

It didn't snow much b/c it wasn't Tuesday! Have you noticed that? Most of the systems seem to be in our area near the beginning of the week :-)

Looking forward to the next round and keepin' the fingers crossed. Thanks for the tweets and whatnot CWG.

Posted by: kygurl94 | January 21, 2011 9:29 AM | Report abuse

FIREDRAGON47 - you are funny. And yes I am preparing to literally wrap-insulate my windows tonight and thus establish my cocoon.

dprats21 - thanks for the comment & for following us at CWG! Yes, the winter is still two months from being over...indeed!

bbirnbau - It is the mathematics involved with chaos effect in the atmosphere that many days away. The smallest of perturbations today could manifest themselves many times over to re-route or change the nature of that storm that you see displayed on Tuesday. Remember the models are predicting their best guesses, they aren't deterministic or ever 100% certain. My 50% cap of precip chances is supposed to leave 50% chance for the storm to re-route altogether.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 9:31 AM | Report abuse

Somewhere between 1" and 2" here in Baltimore. Just enough to look pretty, but not enough to cause any major problems. I'm a snow lover, and although I like the occasional big storm, I'm just as happy with more of these smaller storms that keep a nice blanket of snow on the ground and a coating on the tree branches.

Posted by: weatherwatcher1 | January 21, 2011 9:33 AM | Report abuse

Thanks, Camden. It's kind of fascinating. That must have been some really cold air a few years ago to dip our temperatures to single digits.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | January 21, 2011 9:39 AM | Report abuse

ThinkSpring - I think I see what you are saying. Agree we would need a strong subtropical jet stream for classic nor'easter snows, yet north of us has gotten plenty already this winter. Moving into your question more, I can say that models aren't "adjusted" depending on the mode of La Nina/Neutral/El Nino phases of water temperatures. The models will take in all data from around the globe and output results based on them--so it is taking initial conditions (water temps/atmospheric profiles from radiosonde weather balloons) into account. I suppose that is where Capital Weather Gang has to place a careful eye on the models and realize "oh hey it is a La Nina year, so a storm 6 days out probably will underperform for our area" - Forecasters have to take a cold hard look at what models think might happen. In our CWG winter outlook for this year, we tried to demonstrate what variables (like La Nina) would influence our winter & what analog (past) years might most apply to 2011 based on previous winters with same variables. In conclusion, that is why computer models need human interpretation :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 9:40 AM | Report abuse

I love that the next decent snow potential is NOT on a weekend or a holiday. That's nice for a change...even if it does eventually flake out on us. Pun intended.

Posted by: Rcmorgan | January 21, 2011 9:45 AM | Report abuse

Gunga2009 - is the "waahoo" because you aren't a snow lover? Maybe I can relate.. because.. I too appreciate a low-impact (non impact!) snow event. You may be a practical person like I am nowadays? haha

kygurl94 - thanks for following us on all the different mediums ;-) Yes we are seemingly in a 7 day pattern with the atmosphere sending us energy on the beginning and end of the workweek.

weatherwatcher1 - I think you join the club with me and Gunga2009, practical snow viewers, perhaps?

authorofpoetry - never a problem. Thanks for commenting always. And let me recall with you 1996. After the blizzard in the region, temperatures even dipped below zero. It was because the core of the Arctic High Pressure systems coming out of the north pole region will spilling eastward instead of straight south into the center of the continent (Minnesota). Also there was an expansive snow cover that prevent the arctic air from modifying between its source and DC area.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 9:50 AM | Report abuse

Agree with CWG, there was a post by CWG 6-7 weeks ago showing the number of big east coast storms during a La Nina winter and it was paltry. Agree with CWG again in that Philly on north have already experienced several large east coast storms during the current La Nina winter. Seems like we may not be able to keep dodging east coast bullets all winter...

Posted by: TopperTed | January 21, 2011 9:52 AM | Report abuse

angry clouds rollin in
flurries

Posted by: redskins-95 | January 21, 2011 9:55 AM | Report abuse

@Camden

That makes a lot of sense when you put it that way. I just assumed that with such ubiquitous support from the models that even at this stage things looked almost sure for precip. But hey, 4-50% this far out is pretty high anyways.

Is Wes supposed to drop in today for a technical discussion of next week? I thought I remembered that being mentioned on the blog sometime yesterday.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 21, 2011 9:56 AM | Report abuse

I tried to warn them, but my kids were still disappointed this morning.

This morning I was driving from Reston to Fairfax and saw flurries even though the sun was in my eyes. I don't know if I've ever experienced that before... and yes, I'm just trying to find something interesting about this winter.

Posted by: veronica7 | January 21, 2011 10:04 AM | Report abuse

CWG, great job as usual. I'm cautiously optimistic about next week's storm, but because of the trends that we've seen in nearly all of our "misses" this winter I'm going to put my money on hardly any accumulating snow; 1" or less with rain more likely. See now that I've said that it means we're going to get a huge snowstorm.

Posted by: dcg35 | January 21, 2011 10:09 AM | Report abuse

kygurl94, you said,
"It didn't snow much b/c it wasn't Tuesday! Have you noticed that? Most of the systems seem to be in our area near the beginning of the week :-)"

hahaha...indeed. and this next one IS scheduled for tuesday - bombo's dance night... he's not gonna be happy...

bombo,
sorry, man, but i hope there's so much snow your dance gets canceled. there are plenty of dance chances, but we've got to take the snow chances when they come along - especially this winter.

although, i suppose i'd be open to the idea of the storm developing late - maybe only starting late tuesday night, as long as that doesn't mean the accumulations are reduced.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 21, 2011 10:10 AM | Report abuse

Rcmorgan - nice pun!

bbirnbau - yes Wes is still going to chime in with a post today, as far as I know that hasn't changed.

veronica7 - it is a "boring" winter, I suppose. But hope you drove safely? Sounds challenging!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 10:17 AM | Report abuse

I have to admit that I have no meteorological background and this could be wishcasting… but looking at the situation for next week, I am seeing a lot signs pointing to a good potential for snow or at least mixed precip as opposed to an all rain event. What I am seeing now is a cold air damning situation with a really strong temp and pressure gradient between the north and south, and a slow moving low emerging out of the gulf. When you look at cold wedge situation it is all about "relative temp difference".... Sure we will get warm air advection with the set up suggested on the models but how cold relative to the cold air to the north will be key. First off Look at how the ice storm last week wayyyy over performed with the cold air... with the models indicating a Cold Air Damning situation, the overall strength of the high and the fact that this is the coldest outbreak of the year, and the fact that we have a lot of snow pack north of us, wouldn’t all of these factors indicate a favorable CAD situation and the possibility that this storm will favor more of a frozen precip type for Balt/ Wash? I would love to get CWGs opinion on this.

Posted by: jac8949 | January 21, 2011 10:20 AM | Report abuse

dcg35 - thanks for chiming in and .. we'll see, won't we? Still too early to make an accumulation call with high confidence, but you are right the trends this winter are what they are yet one storm can be an aberration, easily, at the mid-winter point!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 10:21 AM | Report abuse

Thanks, Camden, for the explanation. Agree about NE still getting storms in this La Nina year. Would be interesting to see how Phil, NY, etc. have fared in past La Nina winters as well.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 21, 2011 10:25 AM | Report abuse

This is incredible. A pathetic .01" at National Airport overnight?! That is beyond "underwhelming", Jason! Our drought from 2010 continues.

BNA has had 9.3" of snow? Even ATL has had more than we have! Arrrrggh.

Further up the Northeast Corridor, PHL has had 22", NYC 32", and BDL (Hartford) 52".

This is SO depressing!

Posted by: TominMichiganParkDC | January 21, 2011 10:34 AM | Report abuse

I and my heating pad and lap cat, Velcro, say meh to this new low blow. A month of fairly cold has readied us. Anyone else grow up saying "our blood has thickened"? Our blood coats our veins, you know.

Posted by: jhbyer | January 21, 2011 10:36 AM | Report abuse

Just saw three flurries. I decided to get excited about them in case they are all we get this winter.

Posted by: WickedRose | January 21, 2011 10:41 AM | Report abuse

If we get alot of precip next week in the form of RAIN, well, I suspect, many posters on this blog might just go OVER THE EDGE!!

Hold on folks...maybe February will hold something different.

And of course, "we will always have Paris...."

Posted by: moo1 | January 21, 2011 10:43 AM | Report abuse

Somebody posted that this winter has been "boring".
Thta's not the word I would choose. Exasperating for sure, but not boring. How can a snow lover be bored with CWG fluffing us up every week for another dusting?

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 21, 2011 10:43 AM | Report abuse

jhbyer - we have definitely acclimated - I am warm when I jog in 30 degree weather now. So strange! ha

jac8949 - the weather models have some intriguing elements that would favor wintry precip in the area, but too soon to rule out changes to model output between now and then! Chaos in the atmosphere wreaks havoc the further and further out we go. Even if we had sensors one foot apart in the atmosphere in all directions, there would still be forecasting errors from the mathematics-based weather models.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 10:48 AM | Report abuse

My first guess for next week is that the western 'burbs finally get real snow... a bit like Dec 5, 2009.

Posted by: spgass1 | January 21, 2011 10:58 AM | Report abuse

Very slight dusting on the ground in Columbia Heights West this morning.

Big issue: Seems the temperature Tuesday is supposed to stay below 32 all day...yet the forecast calls for "mix" rather than snow! What's up???...one of those darned mid-level warm-air-advection scenarios??? Plus...once again Tuesday night is a Clarendon Ballroom dance night...that's 3 for 3 so far this year!!!

Sure wish the Washington Nationals batting order could bat like the much-unneeded rain crowd...we might have a contender here!!! Bring on the Yankees!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 21, 2011 11:58 AM | Report abuse

Saw a minor flurry in Potomac, nothing to get excited over. I love that someone has a cat named velcro. My cat's name is bucket, and our next dog will be named mop. My husband cracks up at the thought of me at the dog park yelling for my mop to come back. :)

Posted by: HappyArmyWife | January 21, 2011 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Bombo47jea - your confusion, er, I should say the models' confusion with regards to output of temperature, precip, pressure, surface conditions... Is exactly why meteorologists need to take apart each model run and examine just what exactly, if anything, is a probable reality. Sometimes they just spit out numerical-based pictures for us that don't add up and we have to dismiss their predictions. After a few more model runs we might have a better--more sensical--idea of how next week will look. Computer output by itself is chaotic sometimes and does not always self-validate its own predictions!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 12:27 PM | Report abuse

HappyArmyWife - thanks for the flurry report. And nice pet names, indeed!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 12:35 PM | Report abuse

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