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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 01/25/2011

Forecast: Warm before winter storm

By Matt Rogers

Significant snow possible late Wed. in some spots

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Yes - some clouds, but temperatures in the 40s. Who knew that would feel warm?
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Variable clouds. 44-48. | Tonight: Cloudy, chance of mixed precipitation late. 27-33. | Tomorrow: Mixed precipitation changing to snow late. 32-36. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

I wouldn't go as far as recommend shorts here today, but 40s are a big improvement over the last few days. Don't get used it to though as there are increasing indications significant snow may fall across parts of the region late in the day Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially north and west of the District.

Snow Potential Index: 7 ↑ - Increasing odds of accumulating snow late Wednesday, especially N & W.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Tuesday): After three days of solid below freezing temperatures in most of the D.C. area, the mid-to-even upper 40s today are going to feel really nice. A variably cloudy day dominates, but light winds from the south pump in warmer conditions, and the sun should make occasional appearances. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Cloudy skies as temperatures fall back into the 30s in most areas from the city east and south. Look for upper 20s to re-appear toward the northern and western suburbs. Light precipitation could start in the hours before dawn and that would be a snow/sleet mix toward the northwest suburbs and snow/sleet/rain mix in city or even just rain points east and south. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Confidence: Low-Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Slick roadways are most likely on the north and west side of the city early in the morning. Light precipitation in the morning could remain frozen (in the form of snow and sleet) primarily in the north and west suburbs, but the city and points south and east probably mix with and/or change to rain for a time. By late afternoon any rain or mixed precipitation is likely to change to snow from the northwest suburbs to near D.C. and should increase in intensity. A little accumulation is possible by dark especially north and west of the city. Highs range from the low 30s north/west to the upper 30s south/east. Winds from the north and east at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tomorrow Night: Any rain or mixed precipitation from D.C. and to the southeast likely changes to snow during the evening with snow continuing to fall everywhere else. Light to moderate accumulations are most likely from the city and to the southeast and with moderate to possibly heavy accumulations possible north and west of the city. We'll provide more detailed accumulation estimates later this morning. The snow ends around midnight with overnight temperatures dropping into the low 30s and upper 20s. Winds pick up from the north at 15-20 mph. Confidence: Low-Medium.

Important note - while there is consensus among the models for a period of snow late Wednesday and Wednesday night (possibly heavy at times) - slight changes in the storm track/development remain possible that could significantly impact snow potential/totals either up or down. This is not a high confidence forecast due to how close D.C. is to the rain/snow line and questions about how quickly the coastal storm will develop and where the heaviest precipitation will set up.

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday is our clearing out day and the departing storm is forecast to move away fast enough that we might not be beleaguered by high winds (5-10 mph from the north mainly with some higher morning breezes). Highs should be in the mid-to-upper 30s. Some clouds dot the night sky Thursday night as temperatures drop into the 20s with light winds. Confidence: Medium

Friday aims for partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-to-upper 30s again. Friday night looks mostly clear with lows in the 20s (maybe teens north and western suburbs). Confidence: Medium

The weekend features a low pressure system passing well to our north. The wind flow around the low will be mainly from the west and northwest. When that happens around here, we tend to go warmer than expected, so I'm thinking we see a good chance to surge into the 40s Saturday and Sunday. Partly to mostly sunny skies should make it a pleasant change from last weekend too. Saturday night temperatures should still drop into the teens and twenties. Confidence: Low-Medium

And don't get too comfortable. I see more Arctic air and more winter weather potential later next week. Maybe on Groundhog Day? That would be fitting...

By Matt Rogers  | January 25, 2011; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Live blogging the models for Wed storm
Next: AM update: Winter Storm Watch for N & W suburbs

Comments

Looks like you guys got your work cut out for you. I think it still is a tough call, with most accumulation dependent on a trailing upper low and how much precipitation it can make and how much of that is wasted on overcoming warmth at the surface...

Posted by: sgustaf1 | January 25, 2011 5:25 AM | Report abuse

lol

Well, let's hope it snows though!

The groundhog can have the rain! :)

Posted by: RedCherokee | January 25, 2011 5:45 AM | Report abuse

CWG- Do you think the NWS will issue watches today for our area?

Posted by: cubscapsfan | January 25, 2011 6:04 AM | Report abuse

So, I see some of the local station are saying 1-3 Inches of Snow, but that might have to tweak pending if the latest run this morning shows something else...

I'm kind of confused right now, last night run a lot of the run shows more snow "I'M ASSUMING", oh well 1-3 sounds good or even more sounds better

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 6:29 AM | Report abuse

nws now saying 100% snow wed. night... but they dare not say how much...

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 25, 2011 6:32 AM | Report abuse

Wednesday is too far away. Please make it come today. :(

Posted by: SusanMarie2 | January 25, 2011 6:37 AM | Report abuse

Yes, sgustaf1, this winter has been more challenging for sure. Last year it was almost always snow and the battle was over how much. This year, we are dealing with far more precipitation type battles.

With the biggest winter weather risk in the DC area tomorrow late afternoon into night, my guess is that they'll aim to issue watches or advisory announcements late this morning (with their midday package). If they're like the rest of us, they may want to gander at a bit more model guidance too that should come in later this morning.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 25, 2011 6:37 AM | Report abuse

Here are the comments from NOAA (at Sterling) this morning: "HOLDING OFF ON A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AREA BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTATION FOR RAIN
AND WET SURFACES TO CUT DOWN ON SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT /MAINLY ON WED/."

My concern is that we switch around the time of the heaviest precipitation late tomorrow afternoon/evening. The exact track of the secondary upper level system will be key to this forecast. And fortunately, there is another day yet to figure it out.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 25, 2011 6:43 AM | Report abuse

cwg

i hope you will/can answer this.

doug kammerer says he doesnt think any snow that falls will stick to the roads, only on grass. do you agree with that? nws says it wil start snowing after 9pm around hyattsville md, just east of dc. i would assume any snow falling after sunset would start accumulating on the roads or will it be warm enough not to?

Posted by: KRUZ | January 25, 2011 6:46 AM | Report abuse

KRUZ, I agree that at the onset of the switchover, the grassy areas will start accumulating first. The problem is if some of these model outputs are correct, you could switch over sooner (late afternoon or early evening) and have enough precipitation to start affecting the roadways during the evening as the temperatures fall to around the freezing mark or just below. Timing of the switchover is key, and unfortunately, you will probably hear lots of different estimates on that today until a consensus is achieved.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 25, 2011 6:57 AM | Report abuse

I'll say 1-3 Inches will be a good start to guess, then as things gets started they can adjust the snowfall....

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 6:59 AM | Report abuse

Looking forward to the early afternoon write up when we hopefully will have more answers. Timing of this thing will not only impact the development of it all, but it's going to greatly impact me, so on top of wanting to know what, I want to know when. We'll have a better sense of that this evening.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 25, 2011 7:03 AM | Report abuse

Thanks for the analysis, Matt. Looks like a lot of questions still to be answered.

Speaking of....I had a question as well. It's always been my understanding that in order to get significant snows here, we had to have a high pressure to the north providing the cold air. From what I've read, we don't have that high pressure for this storm. If that is truly the case, how is it possible we still get significant snows in parts of the area?

Thanks. Just trying to learn a little bit about forecasting here.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 25, 2011 7:26 AM | Report abuse

I have to commute from Baltimore to DC on Wednesday and Thursday. Which looks to be more problematic at this time? I thinking Thursday, if snow accumulates starting Wednesday afternoon, but I'm concerned about the switchover right at the evening commute time.

Posted by: weatherwatcher1 | January 25, 2011 7:33 AM | Report abuse

Great question Thinkspring and yes, the reason we are dealing with mixed precipitation issues (rain/snow) tomorrow with the main storm is due to the lack of a classic high pressure in the Northeast. The second part of the storm is an upper level system that has enough dynamics to "cool the column" to change us over to snow. That is more akin to a vigorous Alberta Clipper type system with its own dynamics doing the work of cooling the atmosphere for the event. So, we shouldn't get the type of big snows we got last year with this feature, but we could get a situation that is the most we've had so far this quieter season.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 25, 2011 7:34 AM | Report abuse

Weatherwatcher1, by far, Wed evening shouuld be your most challenging commute. Tomorrow morning could see some frozen mix if you are traveling early. Wed precip should end around midnight, so it should give sufficient time for Thu AM commute preparation.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 25, 2011 7:37 AM | Report abuse

Perfect! Thanks for the explanation, Matt.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 25, 2011 7:39 AM | Report abuse

I have to commute from Baltimore to DC on Wednesday and Thursday. Which looks to be more problematic at this time? I thinking Thursday, if snow accumulates starting Wednesday afternoon, but I'm concerned about the switchover right at the evening commute time.

Posted by: weatherwatcher1 | January 25, 2011 7:41 AM | Report abuse

Sorry for the double post, especially after you answered my first one.

Posted by: weatherwatcher1 | January 25, 2011 8:05 AM | Report abuse

The walk to work was much more enjoyable this morning - now I understand what Matt meant when he said that this will feel like shorts weather. This is how a mild DC winter should feel when there's no snow!

Posted by: kolya02 | January 25, 2011 8:05 AM | Report abuse

Just watched 8am TWC forecast. They didnt seem to know when and where what is going to happen. This storm is gonna super tricky i assume ?

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 8:08 AM | Report abuse

the 6z NAM especially, but also the 6z GFS, is much more stingy with the late-storm moisture... i feared the 0z runs were too good to be true. we still get snow though. wednesday's gonna stink, i'm afraid - watching all that rain fall that should be snow... there's still plenty of time to fine-tune the details of the storm...

CWG,
to that end, i'd prefer to go with the average of the 0z runs. please relay my request to the power(s)-that-be while s/he/it/they still have time to get the storm set-up right for falls church.

kolya02,
i think "individucast" works better than "IMBY-cast" because almost all the individucast requests involve travel (i.e., not one's backyard) and a time frame: "i have a flight/commute/meeting in X location at Y o'clock..."

and i guess my request for a certain forecast outcome, rather than merely asking about the forecast, raises "individucast" to a whole new level...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 25, 2011 8:09 AM | Report abuse

Weather is a funny thing. I rember one new years eve many years ago, we were shooting fireworks off the back pourch that nite in T-Shirts and I was quite comfortable. Woke up to 4 inches snow that morning.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 8:15 AM | Report abuse

Matt

As of right now would it be safe to say schools and such around the Woodbridge Quantico areas will proably be on scedual tommorow morning? Will Thursday morning be the best bet for closings or delays if the temps are cold enough for snow and ice?

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 8:22 AM | Report abuse

BradFinWoodbridgeVA - yes this is another tricky winter storm but today we are working on consensus and coming up with a higher confidence forecast for you. Nothing is certain--I am hopeful TWC conveyed that?

Walter, will work on your request! jk

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 8:22 AM | Report abuse

Does anyone know if the data from the NOAA Winter Storm hunter has been incorporated into the data?! How will that change the various models as we go through the day?

Thanks! Everyone on here is amazing.

Posted by: justhavingfun4u1 | January 25, 2011 8:25 AM | Report abuse

Thanks Matt.

Yeah TWC is kinda being real GENERAL in there forecast, which i understand why they have to do that right now.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 8:25 AM | Report abuse

I mean thanks Camden..did notice you had took over for Matt.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 8:28 AM | Report abuse

KRUZ,
snow that won't stick to the pavement.... i know that's probably snow-dislikers least-un-favorite kind of snow, but, unless there's 6" or more, the pavement is where all the "good" snow is...

so, this just got me thinking... i know certain salts lower the melting point of water (i.e., snow) so as to prevent it from accumulating. so.... theoretically... is there any substance i could put on my driveway/sidewalk to encourage accumulation...?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 25, 2011 8:29 AM | Report abuse

Lowest confidence in any significant storm inside 36 hours from gametime that I can remember since the February 11-12, 2006 event. Ended up with 13 inches in the LoCo Bootheel...and it was 45 the day before. Sometimes, Mother Nature plays us and says, "I laugh at your science!!".

All kidding aside, Im pretty sure that we are going to see some snow forecast numbers come out today that dont even come within the same area code as what really happens. And I mean that in both directions. We could end up with an inch after Topper gives the burbs 6+...or, we could see 10 inches in Burke. And nobody will be to blame except for the dude who invented the algorithms for the NAM, GFS and EURO. (or we could just blame the Canadian when the forecast busts).

Posted by: DullesARC | January 25, 2011 8:36 AM | Report abuse

Last night, all the local mets said "small slushy accumulations in and around DC". Doug Kammerer said areas WELL west of DC could pick up 3 - 6" max. I still have hope. The models don't look half bad and quite frankly, I think anyone west of DC, maybe even you, Walter, will see some good accumulations.

I'm kind of dissapointed though. I feel that this may be our one and only shot at some decent snowfall this winter. I really want us to get a big-time snowfall, and I think we could, if things work out perfectly. If only it could magically miss KRUZ's and ThinkSpring's neighborhoods; then everyone would be happy.

btw, I posted this the other day, but in case you missed it, this is a video Bob Ryan made in 1977 in which he explains how forecasts were prepared back then. No computer models, just weather maps. It's amazing how much things have changed since then.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIlz4VsGzNk

Here's another one from Jan. '95. I hadn't realized that weather forecasting had changed so much in the last 15 years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ks9xtRheOSM

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 25, 2011 8:38 AM | Report abuse

Folks - I know this is a fluid (no pun intended) situation, but when you say North and West of town, are you talking Rockville (where I am) or places further out like Frederick?

I do realize you all are having a difficult time being specific with this one and many this year and I do want to commend you all on being thorough and presentable for both weather pros and laymembers. Keep up the good work!

-Josh (author)

Posted by: authorofpoetry | January 25, 2011 8:39 AM | Report abuse

@ walter - "Why didnt I think of that?"

Posted by: DullesARC | January 25, 2011 8:39 AM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch ....

An ice rink?

;-)

C'mon man, use your mojo and make it snow! I wanna see some snow sculptures!

Posted by: ennepe68 | January 25, 2011 8:41 AM | Report abuse

What do you mean today is an "8"?
It's a rare January day that's more than a 4.

Just because we've been having 2's recently doesn't make today better than any non-raining day in April.

Posted by: WmarkW | January 25, 2011 8:42 AM | Report abuse

@CWG

You should definitely put out a zone forecast, but add a Zone 4. This would be a tiny little circle in eastern Fairfax, labeled, "Walter's Backyard" and your forecast there should be for 18-24".

C'mon, throw the guy a bone.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 25, 2011 8:42 AM | Report abuse

I havent lived here long so I get confused as to my forecast location as well sometimes. Is WOODBRIDGE considered South and West of town?

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 8:43 AM | Report abuse

@DullesARC

"...or we could just blame the Canadian..."

Brill-yunt!

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 25, 2011 8:45 AM | Report abuse

Seems like any snow we get will be melting on Thursday, which makes this storm a bust in my opinion.

Posted by: sarah54 | January 25, 2011 8:45 AM | Report abuse

Walter, you, along with FIREDRAGON47 and BradFinWoodbridgeVA just get funnier and funnier. I love it when people like you bring some much-needed humor to this blog... keep it up ;)

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 25, 2011 8:47 AM | Report abuse

Walter, you might want to install one of those refrigeration loops in your driveway that they use underneath the hockey rinks. In the meantime you will need an endothermic reaction, so something like ammonium chloride powder should work.

The funky thing about these upper lows and dynamic cooling snow is that the harder the snow, the more the cooling and the more that it sticks. So there can be a little snow which mostly melts or a lot of snow which doesn't. My prediction FWIW is 1 to 10 inches.

Posted by: eric654 | January 25, 2011 8:48 AM | Report abuse

how disappointing. Went to bed last night with the NAM and GFS agreeing on 5"+ of snow in DC. Now odds seem more likely for a slushy inch with a small chance for more. Bummer.

Posted by: BH99 | January 25, 2011 8:48 AM | Report abuse

An issue that we might have with model continuity today: Yesterday with the watermain break in PGC, our building as well as the World Weather Building, which houses NCEP were foreced to close due to the lack of water. We were also forced to shut down all of our servers. THis could mean the lack of incoming date availability for yesterday's model runs (18 and 00z). I haven't heard anything like that over the wire and I'm sure that they have some sort of backup in place but I know that our snowcover product was sent out too early to be ingested properly and I just wonder if there were any other issues. Leading to perhaps today's 6 and 12z runs to be more trustworthy.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 8:49 AM | Report abuse

Brad,

I think Woodbridge would be considered just south, probably not south and west.

btw, you mentioned you came from SC, right? What part? I have some family down there, so I'm pretty familiar with it.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 25, 2011 8:54 AM | Report abuse

Yes, Woodbridge is south and west. When we refer to areas away from city (like north and west), the farther you go in that direction, the more likely you'll see that colder weather and frozen precipitation.

I hope we can get more specific after the midday round of weather models.

And yes, if we can get well into the 40s today after the last several days of sub-freezing daytime temperatures, then it's an 8 to me!

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 25, 2011 8:55 AM | Report abuse

So this time it's a water main break? How many times is the NWS going to screw up this year?

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 25, 2011 9:01 AM | Report abuse

On GMA, George Stephanopoulos just said it would start snowing later today.

???

Posted by: jaybird926 | January 25, 2011 9:01 AM | Report abuse

I'm getting so confued has the GFS/NAM latest run came out already?... I see someone on here said we are looking at 1 Inch accumaltion compred to 5 INCH plus...

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 9:01 AM | Report abuse

Bob.

I grew up in a little town called Chesnee . Its in the northeast corner of Spartanburg county about 10 miles north of I-85. Right on the dreaded snow/rain line down there below the mountaisn of NC.

Just watched TWC again. They had us as all rain according there Wed map.. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! ( brad groans)

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 9:04 AM | Report abuse

CWG - I'm supposed to travel to FL tomorrow morning - returning Thursday AM - do you see issues with getting back on Thursday? Have a trip to Wisp planned for Friday - Monday to enjoy the snow on the slopes - any advice you have would be great!

Posted by: dcburgh | January 25, 2011 9:10 AM | Report abuse

On a positive note, if tomorrow's storm doesn't pan out, at least there is potential for another one next week. The possibility is always nice...

Posted by: Rcmorgan | January 25, 2011 9:11 AM | Report abuse

@anyone who knows weather. This is confusing me.

http://www.accuweather.com/us/md/damascus/20872/city-weather-forecast.asp

On this blog we talk about things starting Wednesday night...and on Accuweather, Damascus (where I am), says we will have snow tonight into tomorrow morning. What is the deal CWG and CWG peeps?!!!!!!!!! Explain to me.

Posted by: RJ16 | January 25, 2011 9:12 AM | Report abuse

I remember in the mid-90s, when I was in about sixth or seventh grade, we had a mid-winter day where it snowed pretty steadily most of the day. I kept waiting for us to get out early, but the snow never really started to stick. It must have been in the mid-30s the whole time. Perhaps that will happen tomorrow. Don't know about you all, but that's almost worse than rain...snow that falls but never sticks!

Posted by: BH99 | January 25, 2011 9:14 AM | Report abuse

This blog is confusing me is there any erros with the model run last night becuase of the water main break? I;m reading several comments on here stating about the model might conflict with the water main break yestherday, it's interesting not reading that on the NWS website disscussion, not unles there was a model errors...

CONFUSING...

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 9:16 AM | Report abuse

The latest NAM model is coming in and still favoring a thump of snow for entire DC area tomorrow evening after the change-over. Still want to see other modeling here at midday to get better confidence. Confidence on timing the colder temps with the heavier precip is still a big challenge.

I think flights returning on Thursday should be fine.

For Damascus, you could see light snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning before some midday mix risk. Still a light precip and could even be drizzle at times before the bigger chance toward late afternoon-evening tomorrow.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 25, 2011 9:18 AM | Report abuse

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Posted by: smartroutenova | January 25, 2011 9:19 AM | Report abuse

Matt - Thanks for the prompt response!! Keep the good info coming - you guys are great!

Posted by: dcburgh | January 25, 2011 9:21 AM | Report abuse

@jaybird926

George Stephanopoulos is not a meteorologist.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 25, 2011 9:23 AM | Report abuse

BH99

Yup I have been at the school desk several times as a kid and saw that happen..I remeber the sick smile on the teachers face as we had to stay since it didnt stick.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 9:24 AM | Report abuse

But how will this all affect dancing?

Posted by: rj2835a | January 25, 2011 9:24 AM | Report abuse

hey Matt. What does the latest NAM give us here in DC?

Posted by: BH99 | January 25, 2011 9:24 AM | Report abuse

I see the 12z NAM (Latest Run)... looks good! :)

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 9:25 AM | Report abuse

Getting to DCA Thursday morning no problem or disaster? Chances of metro-closing snow?

Posted by: alexandrian1 | January 25, 2011 9:30 AM | Report abuse

Seems to be in the 8-12" range for DC area- higher totals to EAST toward Bay. I worry about the transition period (warmer temps, warmer surfaces) that would deplete that somewhat, but that is a high number for anything we've seen this year. Let's wait and see the GFS model.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 25, 2011 9:31 AM | Report abuse

I feel like this NAM looks good for us snow lovers?

Posted by: rocotten | January 25, 2011 9:31 AM | Report abuse

ruh-roh 12Z NAM. In a good way. I just smiled - Gang, will this sway your confidience (yes I made that word up) for tomorrow?

Posted by: DullesARC | January 25, 2011 9:31 AM | Report abuse

I predict we don't come close to the forecast (by TWC, etc.) temperature today...at least I hope not.

Posted by: rocotten | January 25, 2011 9:33 AM | Report abuse

Bastardi is getting more bullish. The Big Dog is up and running and he intends to up totals for the big cities from DC to Boston. Calling for 6-12 in those areas and up to 15 inches just north and west. Says there will be a period of 4+ hours tomorrow night when it could snow 2+ inches per hour in the DC/MD area.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 25, 2011 9:33 AM | Report abuse

"a thump of snow for entire DC area" from matt! that's my favorite CWG statement of the season.

eric,
ammonium chloride powder...thanks. available at my local drug store, or perhaps home depot? i knew you'd know of something.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 25, 2011 9:35 AM | Report abuse

I have public input for you

smartroutenova@gmail.com

keep your selfserving garbage off this blog.

Posted by: mscofield1 | January 25, 2011 9:36 AM | Report abuse

Come on NWS and post your watch! The Weather Channel, which I check less and less frequently, still says rain tomorrow...which is annoying. Still waiting for Spring when I can set up my new Davis Vantage Vue weather station at my parents house near Tysons!

Posted by: rocotten | January 25, 2011 9:40 AM | Report abuse

I like where these models are going but haven't we seen this head-fake before, already this winter?

Posted by: parksndc | January 25, 2011 9:41 AM | Report abuse

Shouldn't a watch be posted already? Since there's a possibility? Isn't that the rule for a watch? Whereas a warning means it's going to happen? At this point they may go directly to a warning without ever having posted a watch.

Posted by: flyersindc | January 25, 2011 9:43 AM | Report abuse

@Rcmorgan LOL yes I agree on this board the POSSIBILITY alone of interesting weather is what get us so riled up! I'm no psychologist, but this probably speaks to the role hope plays in helping humans deal with hardship.

Posted by: kolya02 | January 25, 2011 9:45 AM | Report abuse

NWS probably waiting for the 12z GFS to post a watch since the GFS usually comes in a bit less wet. They also have that plane they are flying to the storm which they said would bring some better info on the 12z

Posted by: finger11 | January 25, 2011 9:46 AM | Report abuse

Do i dare get excited? Hoping for a 'thumping'of snow here in 22191!

Posted by: lisajulia | January 25, 2011 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Gang,
I like what I'm hearing for DC...I realize this is out of your area, but here in Central NJ (NE of Philly) they're sounding pretty weak, with forcasts of just 2-4" (not enough to get me out of work!) and lots of talk of mixing and rain.

I had thought that most of that mixing line was right up I-95, so why the bullish forecasts for DC, and so much less to the north, up here?

Posted by: DaveB2 | January 25, 2011 9:47 AM | Report abuse

I refuse to be fooled. I'm going to the stores as soon as possible for all winter storm supplies--shovels, salt, victuals, beverages. Will probably put chains on my tires this evening. This is shaping up to be a big one.

Posted by: ShovelPlease | January 25, 2011 9:49 AM | Report abuse

I have a 10pm flight from Dulles tomorrow evening. Will I be able to get to the airport, and is it likely to take off, given the predicted evening switchover times?

Posted by: josh28 | January 25, 2011 9:50 AM | Report abuse

Just skimmed through the NWS, TWC, Wunderground, and some blogs...for Reston, VA/Fairfax County...every forecast is primarily rain with little or no snow accumulation. The comments on this board are now the most bullish I've seen. Odd, usually the other way around.

Posted by: parksndc | January 25, 2011 9:50 AM | Report abuse

From last night run 12z GFS, how much snow were project in the area??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 9:51 AM | Report abuse

Will the snow affect my pants?

Posted by: spdawson1 | January 25, 2011 9:53 AM | Report abuse

I need to stop hitting 'refresh' and get some work done =)

Posted by: lisajulia | January 25, 2011 9:56 AM | Report abuse

21 degrees of temp difference between yesterday morning & today.
Will it snow? I wonder.....

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 25, 2011 9:56 AM | Report abuse

@ Parks

TWC and NWS use outdated forecasts. They're not taking into consideration the new model runs from last night and this morning. Expect their tune to change soon. Probably this afternoon.

Posted by: MVPlaya8120 | January 25, 2011 9:56 AM | Report abuse

TWC shows all rain..I have also noticed they hardly even talk about the Mid Atlantic that much..Ever forecast they talk about the rain and t-storms in the south then jump directly to whats gonna happen in the northeast? Anyone else notice that they do that? They hardly mention whats going to happen for DC.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 9:58 AM | Report abuse

Its not that they are the most bullish...its that they are the most up-to-date in terms of presenting the most recent data.

Posted by: rocotten | January 25, 2011 9:59 AM | Report abuse

@ lisajulia

lol, me too! haha

Posted by: kwojciec | January 25, 2011 9:59 AM | Report abuse

MVPlaya8120 - I understand that...I've been tracking weather for over 30 years and have been tracking this blog from the start. I just have a feeling we're getting overly excited about nothing. There's a lot of talk of a cold rain with changover to an inch or two of slushy wet snow at the end and not everyone is buying into the models right now. This sounds like a typical DC winter storm to me, but believe me, I hope I'm wrong. I love snow!

Posted by: parksndc | January 25, 2011 10:03 AM | Report abuse

The big question that has not been address nor asked yet today is........

Will dance class happen?

Posted by: mscofield1 | January 25, 2011 10:03 AM | Report abuse

A friend of mine who works for the NWS in Sterling says a "WINTER STORM WATCH" will be issued around 2PM for area Northwest of I-95 and possible for the DC itself, but for sure Northwest of I-95...

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 10:03 AM | Report abuse

Hey @smartroutenova , go spam somewhere else. The debate over our infrastructure is a legitimate one indeed, but not here.

Posted by: dcg35 | January 25, 2011 10:04 AM | Report abuse

@spdawson1

Um, exactly what kind of blog do you think this is?

Posted by: mcaicedo | January 25, 2011 10:05 AM | Report abuse

Yes, Parks, please don't take my comments about the modeling as an official forecast yet. I'd prefer to look at the midday GFS coming in the next hour here too to build confidence in the trend.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | January 25, 2011 10:05 AM | Report abuse

WJLA (TBD.COM) Forecast at 9:52 AM...

Today's Forecast
Updated Tuesday at 9:52 AM

Here we go again! Another tricky forecast Wednesday and it looks like it will be messy across parts of the region.

TODAY: Partly Cloudy, Much Milder
HIGHS: Low- Mid 40s
WIND: South 5-10mph

TONIGHT: Mostly Cloudy; Lt. Rain/Snow Towards Dawn
LOWS: Low 30s
WIND: Light NE

TOMORROW: Rain/Mix to Snow, Accumulation Possible Especially N&W
HIGHS: Mid to Upper 30s
WIND: NE 10-15+mph

A quiet and milder day today with partly cloudy skies overhead. Expect temperatures to peak in the low to mid 40s this afternoon; before falling into the low 30s overnight under increasing clouds.

The forecast for Wednesday remains very tricky as a complex storm system, approaching from the south, and an upper level low will bring mixed precipitation across the region. Here’s my current thinking at this point. In the metro region the precipitation could begin as a light mix before changing over to rain and then back to snow late day. Areas to the west have the best chance of seeing mainly snow throughout the entire day. Meanwhile, areas southeast may remain mainly rain for much of the daytime with a changeover to some snow toward evening. Accumulations remain tricky but as of right now it looks like areas north and west could see several inches of snow. As for the D.C. Metro and locations south and east significant accumulations look a bit less likely however with the changeover to snow toward evening an inch of two can’t be ruled out. Obviously and unfortunately given the nature of this storm, uncertainty remains high at this point so check back frequently for updates.

Posted by: Showmethesnow | January 25, 2011 10:06 AM | Report abuse

For everyone who likes to look at weather models, this is a pretty cool site:
http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm

Posted by: dmackerman6226 | January 25, 2011 10:07 AM | Report abuse

My daughter and I were doing a snow dance this morning much to my wifes chagrin. I grew up here and she is from Boston so she cannot understand why I get all fired up and revel in the craziness. Snow completely messes up our lives - day care / work etc. - but I love it! Great work CWG!

Posted by: mjwies11 | January 25, 2011 10:07 AM | Report abuse

Folks- New post is up! Click here

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 10:07 AM | Report abuse

I agree about the lack of attention from TWC, Brad. Part of the reason might be because all of the dramatic news has been happening in the northeast this year. I remember getting some more luvin' from the TWC last Feb. Maybe if the consensus forecast rules for big snow here, they will start acting like we matter again. What's a good story without cars sliding down hills and crashing anyway?

Posted by: iceauctions | January 25, 2011 10:07 AM | Report abuse

Hmmm..WTOP's websites has the little snow icon. Between the hours of 7am(77%) and 10am(100%) WED morning it list snow then 1pm-4pm Rain then 7pm to 10pm snow at 100%. What's wrong with TWC? they were the people I usually followed till I found this blog. I truly believe it will snow since the TV mets have no idea what's going on? All the people tracking the storm on this website can't be wrong. I would not be surprised if it stayed a wet/mixed snow all day until the temps fall that night.

Posted by: 882181 | January 25, 2011 10:08 AM | Report abuse

@lisajulia--lol, me too. I'm sitting here like a freak with multiple tabs open, right hand clicking away, left hand glued to F5 key. It's really terrible. And I wonder why I haven't been very productive since last night.

Real question: is there some kind of meteorological conference going on? I just wondered where Bob Ryan & Topper Shutt disappeared to? (Replacement person on WUSA is not too good.)

Posted by: petworthlad | January 25, 2011 10:10 AM | Report abuse

I have about had it with TWC. They are becoming more and more general in there forecast these days. I understand they cover the entire US but they sure do seem to have there favorite places to cover. New York. Philly..Boston..Atlanta..Memphis...but not DC really..Maby im reading into it too much...

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 25, 2011 10:11 AM | Report abuse

MVPlaya8120 - I'm not a novice to this site or others...have been tracking weather for over 30 years. I just feel like this site is currently quite bullish compared to other mets. I have to say, Jason's new post is very fun to read though.

Posted by: parksndc | January 25, 2011 10:13 AM | Report abuse

Glad i am not alone i my 'refreshing' habit! See i couldn't stay away after all LOL!

Posted by: lisajulia | January 25, 2011 10:28 AM | Report abuse

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE FOLKS...(unless you're an hour or more north or west from DC)...forecasters have been very careful with words like "north and west" & "possiblity"

Us city folk will end up with a rainy mess I bet...

Posted by: Pat_E | January 25, 2011 10:35 AM | Report abuse

Well at least I got one warm day. This year is really costing me Ive had to feed twice as much to my cattle and am going to have to start 3 times soon because its just still not enough. Not accounting going out in the cold 3 and 4 times a day feeding and checking on them. I no most people dont go that far but when its this cold for this long I go the extra mile. I actually had puppies out there didnt even know it luckly they yelluped and I heard them and brought them in the house my dachshund musta pulled a sneeky one she darn near caused me to freeze my hands were so cold from being out for such a time looking for her butt. For the rest of the dogs I put hay bales around there pens to knock off any wind and tarps to and hay inside. They were snug as a bug in a rug lol Better then me One kept trying to get me to get in the house with them he could see I was cold as a ice cube. Life on the farm sometimes its cold out here others its just way to hot. Most people I see are cutting there herds big time beef in the spring might be substantually higher. I hope so Ive sure worked my butt off this winter. All from the farm see yaz wouldnt want to be you snow flakes up north whew I hope I didnt make to many mistakes in this I dont have my glasses on lol Bye from VA

Posted by: Fiery1wf | January 25, 2011 10:59 AM | Report abuse

Bah! I don't trust you winter geeks anymore.

Each time this winter you guys freaked everybody with predictions of accumulating snow we only got a dusting to nothing.

My hunch is we probably won't get much if any snow from this latest "storm" either.

So, everybody, please don't mob the grocery stores tonight and buy up all the toilet paper, bottled water, and bread!

It's NOT gonna snow tomorrow!

Posted by: montana123 | January 25, 2011 3:11 PM | Report abuse

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