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Posted at 9:00 PM ET, 01/24/2011

Live blogging the models for Wed storm

By Ian Livingston

New guidance suggests snow threat growing

The evening models are beginning to come out. Every 30 minutes or so I'll post a short update covering the new computer guidance and any valid side commentary I come across as they roll.

1:05 a.m.: The Euro has also come in colder with a decent snow hit across the region as the upper-level energy passes. Verbatim it would be a at least a moderate snowstorm around here. Pretty much all guidance from tonight suggests a pretty good dump of snow across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. It would appear some western suburbs may stay all snow, and that rain ahead of the system to the east may be less than thought. This is not a forecast, and temperature issues remain, but snow lovers with insomnia should sleep well...

11:45 p.m.: The story tonight has been a good one thus far for area snow lovers. Both American models are pumping out the opportunity for a few inches (or more) of snow late Wednesday into Wednesday night as the upper-level energy associated with the upcoming storm passes by. In addition to support from the RGEM noted earlier, the Canadian GGEM also shows a similar scenario. Temperatures remain a concern. However, the odds for snow of note seem to be rising as numerous models converge on that type of solution.

We'll check back in again for those staying up for the Euro (comes in at 1 a.m.) plus perhaps another tidbit or two before then.

Keep reading for more on the snowy NAM and GFS runs.

11:10 p.m.: Check out this GFS snow map based on tonight's run.

Joe Bastardi says...

Big cities..rain to snow, with heaviest thump in nw burbs ( dc to PHL) DC to BWI, biggest snow of year.. harrisburg, allentown also ie.

10:55 p.m.: The GFS is out through the storm and it is at least a bit cooler than its previous run aloft if not quite as cool as the NAM. At hour 42, 48, and 54, you can see a similar passage of an area of rain rapidly changing to snow across the region. Looks like a big snow hit here at first glance though maybe less of one than the NAM.

10:30 p.m.: The RGEM (from Canada) is showing snow across much of the area -- especially the western half -- at 48 hours on tonight's run with a fairly strong low close to the Virginia coast. The 0z GFS will be running shortly.

10:00 p.m.: Wes Junker commented that on the NAM, any precipitation falling after 7 p.m. Wednesday would easily be all snow in D.C. with the transition happening somewhere between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. Here's the NAM's simulated radar at 7 p.m. CWG commenter bdeco makes a statement worth repeating about the NAM's tendency to overdo precipitation amounts. Not that we know this is the case here, but it is worth considering. The Global Forecast System (GFS) starts to run around 10:30 p.m.

9:45 p.m.: Jim Cantore is excited about the NAM it seems...

The highest storm total for THIS SEASON SO FAR in DC is 1.4" @ Dulles and 1.5" @ National. New NAM CRUSHES these totals with pending storm.

9:30 p.m.: The NAM looks pretty exciting for area snow lovers at first glance. Warm air's reach is minimal yet again (like the 18z run) and the model spits out plenty of precipitation (Hour 48 | Hour 54) with cold temperatures above the surface. Verbatim, the area picks up quite a bit of precipitation mainly in the form of snow. AccuWeather's Henry Marguisity states the NAM is consistent with snow passing through D.C. and Baltimore, he even throws out some high numbers. This snow map from the NAM backs him up.

9:00 p.m.: First up, the 0z North American Mesoscale Model (NAM). It's out to hour 12 as of now, and the storm should be entering into our area around hour 30 or 36 (Wednesday morning) for those tracking along.

While we wait to see what it shows, here's a quick glimpse of the newest Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) maps: Precipitation mean over .5" across the area, a low in similar position to recent models, and a decent mid level (500mb) track. Sometimes the SREF leads the way for the new NAM. If so tonight, I would not expect major changes from prior runs. We shall see...

By Ian Livingston  | January 24, 2011; 9:00 PM ET
Categories:  Updates  
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Next: Forecast: Warm before winter storm

Comments

LOVE. THIS. IDEA.

Between this and the Zones, you are crazy if you think this won't set a trend for local weather.

Posted by: 4seamed | January 24, 2011 9:07 PM | Report abuse

Oh this is too much. LOL
Is this incoming storm something worth working us all into a (bigger) flake frenzy?
Because otherwise this is just teasing.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 24, 2011 9:10 PM | Report abuse

This is BRILLIANT!! Thanks, Ian!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 9:11 PM | Report abuse

I'm hoping this storm will not play trick on us like the December Storm.....

I don't care about the Rain, but wondering about this rain changing to SNOW, that's if we are still in the forecast for RAIN....

CWG @ least you will keep us updated.... I'm beginning hearing, well actually from other blogs some snowfall totals if we do get snow...

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 24, 2011 9:13 PM | Report abuse

I can only see up to 30 hours at 9:13 pm, but it looks like NAM is making upper level energy even stronger on this run, and pushing front running coastal out even quicker. Considering the upper level energy was to give us a quick burst of snow Wed. night, this would be a good thing right?

Posted by: 4seamed | January 24, 2011 9:14 PM | Report abuse


CWG

Are we going to get more than 6 inches of snow in the D.C. area??

-s.e.-

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | January 24, 2011 9:16 PM | Report abuse

Ian--really appreciate the live blogging AND the links. Thanks.

The SREF you linked shows the surface low at 1000mb Weds afternoon. Is this a little weak? Will it continue to deepen as it moves north from there?

Posted by: petworthlad | January 24, 2011 9:18 PM | Report abuse

CWG -

I'm assuming the NWS will issued Winter Storm Watches soon just a precaution and recent runs for some, then Winter Weather Advisory for others??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 24, 2011 9:19 PM | Report abuse

SNOWPOCALYPSE :( looks like it will be a long winter... I HATE SNOW!

-D.E.-

ANTONIO!

Posted by: SNOWHATERRR | January 24, 2011 9:24 PM | Report abuse

For those desperate for the white stuff

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=9V9p4mFEYXc&vq=medium#t=15

The whole thing is quite good, but skip past the 3:00 point if you just want snow. Enjoy.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 24, 2011 9:26 PM | Report abuse

Wow @ 0z NAM

Posted by: Dylan0513 | January 24, 2011 9:27 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 9:28 PM | Report abuse

my momz tolds me we werentz gunna have a sno dei. i wuz sad.

Posted by: SNOWHATERRR | January 24, 2011 9:29 PM | Report abuse

Wow. That backside is wicked.

Posted by: bdeco | January 24, 2011 9:30 PM | Report abuse

stole the words bdeco...
0z(does anybdy know what this means?) NAM 48 hour precip is showing >1" of precip!

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 9:32 PM | Report abuse

For those that can't wait for an expert to explain, allow a hack to take a shot. The NAM says Dulles and points west stay below freezing for the entire event and have between 1.0 and 1.25 inches of liquid. UH OH.

Posted by: 4seamed | January 24, 2011 9:33 PM | Report abuse

CWG-Do you think watches might go up in some areas tomorrow? Thanks and keep up the great work!

Posted by: cubscapsfan | January 24, 2011 9:33 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for doing this Ian! Very interesting stuff to follow. Although I need to follow these models like I need a hole in my head.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 24, 2011 9:34 PM | Report abuse

I'd use this for snow totals:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p12_054l.gif

It only includes the precip after the front end (probably rain) has already passed through.

Posted by: bdeco | January 24, 2011 9:35 PM | Report abuse

If going by the 850mb line it's all snow north of DC actually

Posted by: Dylan0513 | January 24, 2011 9:36 PM | Report abuse

@CWG, Both of your NAM links go to the 48 hour shot (although it isn't hard to manually switch it myself!)

@SnowDreamer,

0z means 0 o'clock Zulu time, which is the time at which the model is run. (I think zulu time is the same as UTC/GMT, someone else can correct me if I'm wrong)

Posted by: megamuphen | January 24, 2011 9:38 PM | Report abuse

Megamuphen, you're right.....0z is midnight Zulu, which is 7pm EST. Zulu time is 5 hours ahead of us on the east coast.

Posted by: DaveB2 | January 24, 2011 9:41 PM | Report abuse

based on the nam soundings, the precipitation is rain at 4PM WED but easily snow by 7PM with the transition sometime in that 3 hr window probably towards the middle of it for dca. Any precipitation after 7PM would be all snow if the NAM were correct.

Posted by: wjunker | January 24, 2011 9:41 PM | Report abuse

oooh k.. so then how would you know which is most recent? would you have to figure out zulu time and then find the last zulu time run before that?

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 9:41 PM | Report abuse

So the NAM has moved west, this should mean the snow moves further west as well as the rain/snow line moving further west?

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 9:42 PM | Report abuse

NAM is known for overdoing the precip (at least in both storms last winter it did). The truth is probably somewhere closer to the SREF's 0.5".

Posted by: bdeco | January 24, 2011 9:43 PM | Report abuse

oh boy...

i love it when a plan comes together! on the other hand... now i'm a bit worried because this still has a chance to fall apart on us.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 9:44 PM | Report abuse

again. am i reading this right... 10"!!!!!?

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 9:45 PM | Report abuse

CWG - a little help with the "sounding" reference? What are you looking at when you say that regarding the NAM? The freezing line?

Posted by: DaveB2 | January 24, 2011 9:47 PM | Report abuse

Nice. Love the live updates. Hoping this thing tracks so as to pull in some of the colder air. I'm ready for some snow!

Posted by: Bworl | January 24, 2011 9:47 PM | Report abuse

walter: you crack me up.

Posted by: petworthlad | January 24, 2011 9:48 PM | Report abuse

your link to the "snow map" isn't working

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 9:48 PM | Report abuse

@SnowDreamer--"snow map" link works fine for me.

Posted by: petworthlad | January 24, 2011 9:50 PM | Report abuse

Okay guys.... this is REALLY exciting. But what do we know right now about the setup and the pattern that supports this massive Pivot area of back side cold air and snow. What is the NAM picking up on that can be explained meteorologically? Are we just threading the needle or is it the upper level energy moving through feeding cold air in to the system? I have read over and over again for the last week... DT, JB (berk), Foot, and to an extent CWG say... with no blocking high, our area historically turns to rain. That is what happens along the coastal plain. What is different now other than what the NAM is presenting to to us? Please help. Cause I know if there was a sound reason to discount or discredit these model runs, CWG would be all over it. But they are not. So what gives?

Posted by: jac8949 | January 24, 2011 9:51 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the live updates CWG! I am also hoping for a big storm, these 1.5 inchers are not satisfying for any snowlover.

Posted by: ali123 | January 24, 2011 9:52 PM | Report abuse

Will there be Any school closings at all? Doubt it.

Posted by: RJ16 | January 24, 2011 9:53 PM | Report abuse

Danny Antonio Ebner, a meteorologist from the Boston area said that we should expect good things...

Posted by: SNOWHATERRR | January 24, 2011 9:55 PM | Report abuse

Get excited this time tomorrow night, thats all im saying.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 9:56 PM | Report abuse

Should I be concerned about the cable company being able to make it to my house on Wednesday if it snows?

Posted by: Murre | January 24, 2011 9:58 PM | Report abuse

snow map not working for me either

Posted by: teebyrd86 | January 24, 2011 9:58 PM | Report abuse

DaveB2, We can look at the vertical structure of the atmosphere based on the model forecasts and check to see whether the temperatures are below freezing. If you use the site below and type in KDCA for DCA and KIAD for dulles airport, you can look at the soundings every 3 hours. 00Z is 7PM. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html

Posted by: wjunker | January 24, 2011 9:58 PM | Report abuse

jac8949, the models have been spitting out a near ideal 500 mb (mid level) low track for a while now. The main issue has been temperatures. I don't think this or the previous run of the NAM resolves that issue. However, with a -NAO I think we can tap cold air without a big high to the north.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 9:58 PM | Report abuse

I'm so happy for the DC region. I'm from Maryland, but I go to school in Boston. Although we get decent snow in Boston and it's much colder, it's not the same as getting snow in Maryland.

Posted by: snow22 | January 24, 2011 10:00 PM | Report abuse

O.K. Starting to STRESS! We have a 5:45am flight on FRIDAY to Aruba. As much as I'd love to enjoy a decent snow -- PLEASE PLEASE tell me this storm won't still be an issue by o'dark thirty on Friday morning.

Posted by: CassieLucy | January 24, 2011 10:01 PM | Report abuse

UH OH

NWS is sending in a recon aircraft to monitor this storm... Looks like someone doesnt trust these models!

WEDNESDAY`S STORM. LATEST SREF...GFS...GEFS AND ECMWF USED FOR THE
FORECAST. ALL MODELS TAKE LOW THAT IS FORMING OFF THE TEXAS COAST
AND TRACK IT TO NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO OVER THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF
TIMING...BUT APPEARS TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK.

CONCERNS ABOUT MODEL GUIDANCE ARE HIGH DUE TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
PCPN BEING GENERATED THROUGH MODEL PARAMETRIZATION. THE LATENT HEAT
RELEASE AND THE DYNAMIC BUILDING OF THE DOWN STREAM RIDGE ARE
AFFECTED. THUS...WHILE MODEL TRACK IS CLUSTERED NICELY...HUMAN
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE ACTUAL TRACK. THE NAM IS AN
INTERESTING EXAMPLE...AND WHILE BEING DISCARDED FOR FORECAST
INTEGRATION...IT IS RIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLED TRACK AND PRODUCES ZERO
QPF.

HAVE CONTINUED BASICALLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THINGS BECOME
CLEAR. NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THIS
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GET
INCLUDED INTO TOMORROW`S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUS
EXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW. NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WERE STILL OVER 48 HOURS FROM POSSIBLE WARNING
CRITERIA.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 10:02 PM | Report abuse

That post is from the Upton NWS, this was on thier forecast discussion at 7:16pm and the aircraft is going in overnight.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 10:07 PM | Report abuse

Last Saturday, I posted the following:

Snowlovers out there - RELAX!! Take a deep breath. And you've gotta' believe. The models are flip-floppin' all over the place from run-to-run. Ye of little faith! That 'perfect track' will happen, you bet it will, and we will all be celebrating in the blizzard conditions that the DC area will encounter Tues night and Wednesday. You heard it here first! Posted by: johnnierat | January 22, 2011 8:03 PM |

Timing might be a tad off, but, I'm starting to feel reeeeeeeal good about our snow-luvin' chances for some serious snow depths around here within the next 48 - 72 hours. C'mon now, work with me! Keep the faith!

Posted by: johnnierat | January 24, 2011 10:07 PM | Report abuse

Anyone who stresses over a Friday flight with a storm forecast for Wednesday probably needs to move to a warmer climate.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 24, 2011 10:07 PM | Report abuse

I'm here with u to Asymptotic Unlimited :)

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 10:11 PM | Report abuse

CWG,
what is KRUZ's post talking about??!?! is this the same "error" SteveT has been warning us about? i remember him saying something about "convective precipitation".

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 10:14 PM | Report abuse

I'm here with u to Johnnierat :) I'm a big SNOW LOVER I STILL GOT FAITH OUT THERE. :)

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 10:15 PM | Report abuse

Please NAM, please verify! Please!!! But this still has a whole day to fall apart...

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 10:16 PM | Report abuse

Sounds to me like this storm has the potential for about 10 inches. Is the warmth that may disrupt snow totals the residual warmth from Tuesday or is it new warm air coming into the area on Wednesday?

Posted by: jbernard703 | January 24, 2011 10:18 PM | Report abuse

I believe you can see our storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico right now off the coast of Texas / Louisiana:

http://www.weather.gov/radar_tab.php

Looks pretty healthy to me.

Posted by: Yellowboy | January 24, 2011 10:21 PM | Report abuse

I'm no expert by any means...just love the weather. I'm going to go ahead and just put my estimate out there for fun. 3" at DCA (wet snow that mostly sticks on the grass/non-pavement surfaces). Around 6" Dulles to Frederick County to points north of Baltimore. 0.50" qpf DCA but only about half that is snow. Anyone else want to guess!?

Posted by: BH99 | January 24, 2011 10:23 PM | Report abuse

I'm keepin the faith.... I personally think that we should all sit back and stay calm, as myfriends have posted,this still has MORE than enough time to die... In the mean time, listen to some journey

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 10:25 PM | Report abuse

6-inches in falls church maybe

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 10:28 PM | Report abuse

Interesting about the recon plan. Good. Well, by this time tomorrow we should have a clue, then. A little nervous trusting these models.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 24, 2011 10:29 PM | Report abuse

The NAM looks incredible, but will the GFS back it up? We'll find out soon!

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 24, 2011 10:29 PM | Report abuse

We snow-lovers need to relax. It's not good for us to stress ourselves. But I can't help it! This is just too exciting! I really like what Jim Cantore said about big snow totals in DC... He and Mike Seidel are my two favorite TWC mets and they know what they're talking about. I believe he anchors PM Edition on TWC so I'm gonna go watch TWC for a few minutes and see what they're saying.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 10:30 PM | Report abuse

Can someone explain how it will still snow when the highs for tomorrow are forecast to reach the upper 40s? And then even if it does change to snow after rain, how much reasonable accumulation can there be? It just seems to me in every other event I've experienced here in DC with a similar setup always results in rain followed by snow that barely accumulates. Or worse, just rain.

Posted by: xandersun | January 24, 2011 10:30 PM | Report abuse

Can u send the link for the nam please

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 10:31 PM | Report abuse

Ian, great job so far holding down the fort so far. But when the computers just give and give, it's pretty easy. Maybe this is a new trend for this winter? Should we send Jason to Seattle permanently? I feel like all of his "At the Models" have ended in sadness and New England Blizzards. You must be the good luck charm.

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 10:39 PM | Report abuse

Com'on rain!!!!

Posted by: rmcazz | January 24, 2011 10:40 PM | Report abuse

@CWG, why don't you guys invest the millions of dollars you make from us and make an iPhone app so we can follow your blogs more easily?

Posted by: RJ16 | January 24, 2011 10:41 PM | Report abuse

@RJ16, if you point out these millions of dollars, I'd be happy to work on an iPhone app for you ;)

But in honesty, I'm looking at whipping up a snowlover's crystal ball Android app. Any interest in that from the community?

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 10:45 PM | Report abuse

The NWS guys are still leaning towards rain. But even the more cynical types on American seem to be a little more optimistic.

This is both fascinating and nerve racking.

Posted by: concepcion611 | January 24, 2011 10:45 PM | Report abuse

Prince William County High School students have semester exams this week. Something almost always happens during midterm week (or so it seems).

Made my final request to my 17 y/o daughter to make sure she has any/all books, notebooks, etc. she needs to study with her when she leaves school tomorrow, JUST IN CASE. At this point, who knows what will happen?!?

Am I over-reacting? Maybe, maybe not. But I learned last year if you prepare for the worst first, you'll have one less worry later.

No pressure Ian, but I'm waiting on your every word here... ;o)

Posted by: southbridgemom | January 24, 2011 10:47 PM | Report abuse

West is best tonight. Now just hope for early clouds tomorrow, not much sun and the big cold wrap up on the east side. How's that for a simple summary of the perfect trip for the eastern suburbs? If it is going to happen, let it be the real thing.

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 24, 2011 10:47 PM | Report abuse

Why no iPhone app too?

Posted by: kg2273 | January 24, 2011 10:47 PM | Report abuse

If you do make an apple app, make sure it is also compatable w/ iPad

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 10:48 PM | Report abuse

Jamie, I'm sure every snow lover has a story of the one they missed while out of town. Maybe Jason sacrificed himself for us. This is all very premature anyway, ha! The NAM was fun though... Fingers crossed.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 10:48 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, CWG -- really enjoying your up-to-the minute coverage.

Posted by: InVA1 | January 24, 2011 10:49 PM | Report abuse

someone on americanwx just said:
"GFS is Juiced up and a little colder. Gonna be nice I think"
waiting to hear what CWG thinks!

Posted by: BH99 | January 24, 2011 10:50 PM | Report abuse

I would LOVE an Android app! That would be awesome!

Posted by: samdman95 | January 24, 2011 10:50 PM | Report abuse

I would love to hear the thoughts on the models tonite from cwg... What of the convective issues? Are you guys taking these run as gospel now and are prepping to change your forecast now?

I guess we're in for a big one if these models are the wx gospel now. I still dont believe it, i dont think the models are taking tomorrows temps followed by cloud cover tomorrow night keeping the temps up. We shall see but i feel like this is deja vu from a couple storms so far this winter.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 10:52 PM | Report abuse

I am a huge CWG fan and have wasted a good deal of time out to dinner with my boyfriend waiting for the blog to load on my android. I would LOVE an app!

oh, and having an android app out before an iphone/pad app would just be a bonus!

Hope to see it soon, Thanks!

Posted by: amandap8 | January 24, 2011 10:52 PM | Report abuse

@Ian

Yeah, last year I was in Florida when that storm hit on the 30th of January. I though I was unlucky, until later that week....

Posted by: cubscapsfan | January 24, 2011 10:52 PM | Report abuse

i've been hittting refresh for the past 10 minutes now. I think I might need psychological treatment.

Posted by: BH99 | January 24, 2011 10:52 PM | Report abuse

I am a huge CWG fan and have wasted a good deal of time waiting for the blog to load on my android (once or twice while at the bar myself), so I would LOVE an app!

oh, and having an android app out before an iphone/pad app would just be a bonus!

Hope to see it soon, Thanks!

Posted by: amandap8 | January 24, 2011 10:53 PM | Report abuse

Love Android and would love an Android app.

Posted by: jbernard703 | January 24, 2011 10:53 PM | Report abuse

0Z GFS still looks similar to the NAM at 42 hours...

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 24, 2011 10:55 PM | Report abuse

Sue Palka saying it will be mostly rain/wintry mix most of the day Wednesday, switching to snow around 5-6pm, but moving out relatively quickly (around midnight). While she said there could be some accumulation, she didnt speculate a total (unless I missed it).

Posted by: apeirond | January 24, 2011 10:56 PM | Report abuse

bh99- we all do, at least we pick this over NA meetings. My family doesn't say much to me about the weather, except when they need to know what it will do, and there is the mystery and the wonder...

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 24, 2011 10:56 PM | Report abuse

Look at that hour 48 GFS! Blam Blam!

Posted by: Ayrwulf | January 24, 2011 10:57 PM | Report abuse

Would LOVE an iPhone app. Or at least a mobile version of wapo that includes comments on the blogs :\

Posted by: alcw1 | January 24, 2011 10:58 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | January 24, 2011 10:59 PM | Report abuse

@BH99
It's nice to know that I am not the only obsessive one out there :)

I keep telling myself that I am going to go to bed when the next post comes up but it's so exciting!

Posted by: MichaelaK | January 24, 2011 10:59 PM | Report abuse

Amandap- so, the iPhone comes out and re-defines an entire industry then the android just copies it and you think that is good? Do you also find Windows to be intuitive? Anyway- I'm dreading a repeat of the Christmas miss. That was a heartbreaker.

Posted by: Bobmiller3 | January 24, 2011 10:59 PM | Report abuse

CWG- Do you think the NWS will issue watches tomorrow morning for our area?

Posted by: cubscapsfan | January 24, 2011 10:59 PM | Report abuse

Bastardi just tweeted 3-6 inches DC to Philly.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 11:00 PM | Report abuse

wow...so let me get this straight...latest NAM has about 10" for DC and latest GFS gives us at least 5-6"??

Posted by: BH99 | January 24, 2011 11:00 PM | Report abuse

Personally, I have no professional preference between the 2 (Android and iPhone apps). But just in general Android apps can be whipped up a bit quicker for me. And anything would be basic and for fun, as I think the Post has some mobile weather action up it's sleeve for the future. However, any app work is after the long list of tech items in front of me.

And it might be add another to that list. Is it about time to dust off the Snow-Reporting app?

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 11:00 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | January 24, 2011 11:01 PM | Report abuse

GFS also showing about 1 qpf of precip.

Posted by: Dylan0513 | January 24, 2011 11:02 PM | Report abuse

The new 0z GFS still looks pretty good!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 11:02 PM | Report abuse

Looks like GFS is way east... Hopefully by this time tomorrow it will follow this winters pattern and take this storm completely OTS!

Im calling BUST! Wishcast FTW!

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 11:03 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 11:03 PM | Report abuse

Ian - Some of your links above are disabled due to remote linking restrictions, such as the one(s) at AmericanWx.

e.g. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county048.gif

Posted by: ennepe68 | January 24, 2011 11:04 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 11:05 PM | Report abuse

0Z GFS 10:1 snowfall ratio tool at 54 hours shows 8-12 inches for our area.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 24, 2011 11:05 PM | Report abuse

bobmiller2 don't be an android hater. iOS and android are both nice operating systems they just offer something different for different types of people. can't we all just join together against our common enemy....rain

Posted by: jbernard703 | January 24, 2011 11:06 PM | Report abuse

android app would be great, or at least a mobile version of the page. the regular page is pretty annoying on a phone (and during snomagedon, I was in the process of moving and that was the only way I could get my CWG fix)

Posted by: timdgoff | January 24, 2011 11:06 PM | Report abuse

CWG: This one has your zonal forcast written all over it. Look forward to it.

My fun shorthand: Zone 3 7-10

Zone 2 5-7

Zone 1 2-5

Got to play in the sleet. On the board, look forward to your thoughts.

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 24, 2011 11:07 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ IDK what you are looking at but the 0z GFS shows 1-1.25 qpf

Posted by: samdman95 | January 24, 2011 11:08 PM | Report abuse

Actually I am bob miller 3. I'm not an android hater but I like the innovators. I would compare CWG with Apple and Hack-u-weather with Microsoft. One does all the work and puts thought into their product, the other just markets it and talks louder. However- this is about weather so bring the flakes! Who cares what phone we read it on.

Posted by: Bobmiller3 | January 24, 2011 11:10 PM | Report abuse

I stand corrected, looks like there is a mobile version of CWG, just not obvious to find, not totally up to date, and apparently missing the comments section... still better than nothing.

Anyway, hoping to actually get some snow this week! keep up the good analysis CWG.

Posted by: timdgoff | January 24, 2011 11:10 PM | Report abuse

You are all certainly an enthusiastic bunch but could someone translate what these NAM and GFS numbers mean? Just how many inches of snow are in the Wednesday and Thursday forecast and when?

Posted by: Hanz1 | January 24, 2011 11:11 PM | Report abuse

Please discuss your love/hate for Apple/Android on some other Post blog. We've got a storm to talk about here.

Or at least I hope that we do. Having left NYC at 9PM on Christmas Eve to get home here and get zip, I am fearful that we are going to get shafted again. Particularly if the InAccuweather clowns are beginning to tout this storm.

Posted by: concepcion611 | January 24, 2011 11:13 PM | Report abuse

speaking of mobile and weather has everyone seen the new google weather page from a mobile device. if you search "weather" it has a new user interface that is pretty nifty.

Posted by: jbernard703 | January 24, 2011 11:14 PM | Report abuse

If what they're saying is true, Wednesday evening could be a good time for a little rumble in Dupont Circle. Won't be on the scale of last Feb. 6, but it doesn't have to be for the folks to have some fun... we'll try to make a call here http://bit.ly/fFb1QF sometime tomorrow!

Posted by: mlipin | January 24, 2011 11:15 PM | Report abuse

This is the perfecto set up For us to cake up tomorrow to, "mostly rain, a distingue to an Incháustegui on the higher elevations north and west of the district. Looks like the weather gods are against us". LOL

Posted by: RJ16 | January 24, 2011 11:15 PM | Report abuse

ennepe68, thanks. I think if you put them in a URL bar and hit enter they should work but I changed most of them out.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 11:15 PM | Report abuse

Concepcion- you got it. No more tech talk. Back to the snow. So, are we in the eye of the needle?

Posted by: Bobmiller3 | January 24, 2011 11:17 PM | Report abuse

Most definite on the android app, CWG on my Droid has some issues with the feed from imap weather. Nearly every time I try to read CWG I have to guess on what is being written sense I can only see about half of each line in the adjacent paragraph(s).

Posted by: miglewis | January 24, 2011 11:17 PM | Report abuse

New zone map! New zone map! New zone map! Tonight!!!!!!!

Posted by: RJ16 | January 24, 2011 11:22 PM | Report abuse

kammerer saying mostly rain also, with late snow when cold air moves in. doesnt speculate on amounts either, but was saying 3-6" to the west, his line was pretty far west for getting mostly snow, winchester was in, boundary was east of there.

Posted by: apeirond | January 24, 2011 11:22 PM | Report abuse

you can only count the precip that happens after the changeover to snow...maybe .5-75", so maybe 5" of dense wet snow. i'm happy with that! i'll take the average of the current nam and gfs predictions and go home. sure i'd love to see that purple area to the southeast come over us... but i'd be happy if these verify... pleasant dreams...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 11:23 PM | Report abuse

Doug Hill just said the nws is flying an aircraft into the storm to take observations. He didn't give any sort of REAL prediction; he just said that there should be a clearer idea as to what will happen by tomorrow morning.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 11:24 PM | Report abuse

Good night everyone... I'm going to bed.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 11:25 PM | Report abuse

Doug Hill just said models are still all over the place with this storm. How so??

Posted by: BH99 | January 24, 2011 11:26 PM | Report abuse

CWG,
0Z NAM and GFS agree on fast moving coastal system with 18Z WED to 06Z THU impact time in DC area. Cold air mass source retreating. But will local dynamic cooling (by rising vertical motion) from negative tilted upper trof turn it over to wet heavy snow? And when during the 12 hour impact time? Questions to ponder.

Posted by: ronbcust | January 24, 2011 11:27 PM | Report abuse

Bobmiller3-

My interest in having an android app (and my slightly sarcastic comment about having one first) is because I appreciate the market competition in the smart phone industry. The nature of a collaborative OS allows for more innovation and makes all smart phones better.

To be honest, I am not tech savvy but my boyfriend is an engineer. He has modified his android and built his own computer and through his eyes I have seen the benefits of products that are different from the apple line. If it weren't for him, I'd probably have an iPhone b/c these products are more intuitive (after a learning curve). Through this tech experience I have come to the conclusion that I like my robots challenging me a little to ask if I'm getting everything I want, and I think Android does that better.

Posted by: amandap2986 | January 24, 2011 11:28 PM | Report abuse

Hanz1--they don't know for sure yet, they're just having fun speculating and tossing techie details back and forth. It's always that way here 24+ or so hours before anything might actually happen. Check back Tuesday night. =)

Posted by: angelicat | January 24, 2011 11:39 PM | Report abuse

@mlipin

As a proud veteran of the great First Battle of Dupont Circle, I am sad to announce that I will be out of town and unable to defend the pride of the forces of North Side. I also must admit with much regret that the impending storm is very badly timed for a rematch. There won't be much snow on the ground until late in the evening on Wednesday, and unless there is a federal snowday on Thursday, there won't be enough combatants for a showdown at high noon on Thursday. I hope I am wrong.

Posted by: Ayrwulf | January 24, 2011 11:42 PM | Report abuse

I want to join it sounds fun XD

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 11:54 PM | Report abuse

A. Yes to the Android app, please!

B. I want to believe. I want to get behind this storm. But, I fear that I've been the bride left too many times at the altar this winter. My skeptical side is harrumphing and refusing to bite. I'll be doing all my homework and planning for a full week of classes. Le sigh.

Posted by: MasonPatriot1 | January 24, 2011 11:58 PM | Report abuse

MasonPatriot1, your concern is understandable. On many levels this looks much better than anything thrown our way this season though.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 12:20 AM | Report abuse

Hard to believe it will get above 40 tomorrow.
Snow is fine, at least you can see it. Def not looking forward to an icing event.

Posted by: moo1 | January 25, 2011 12:31 AM | Report abuse

I imagine sending aircraft in means that they are concerned about storm intensity and precip levels??

Posted by: moo1 | January 25, 2011 12:35 AM | Report abuse

CWG you guys rock. Best weather source I know of. You guys let us know what you know and that's the way it should be. TV mets prob should go into more detail like you guys but I understand explaining this stuff to a regular everyday person is like teaching a foreign language. Keep up the good work and lets hope this new trend keeps rollin!

Posted by: MVPlaya8120 | January 25, 2011 12:38 AM | Report abuse

@CWG, before you all go to sleep. Could this cause closings Thursday at all? IN MoCo? In dc it'll be a 15 minute delay.

Posted by: RJ16 | January 25, 2011 1:14 AM | Report abuse

Ian, Thanks for the great work once again! Off to dream of snow days now and anxiously awaiting a team forecast tomorrow.

CWG Rocks!

Posted by: amandap2986 | January 25, 2011 1:18 AM | Report abuse

So I guess after all this discussion over the past few days, it looks as if we might "thread the needle" after all.

Posted by: tombeek31 | January 25, 2011 1:20 AM | Report abuse

Amazing model agreement. From the wide spread of solutions that they have all been illustrating the past few days, for them all to come into this much agreement is great. Now, I still think we see changes and movement over the next 36 hours, but I don't think they could have painted a more-positive snow picture for the lovers out there at this point.

However, the near misses of this winter are still too fresh, I'm not putting on my snow boots just yet...

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 1:24 AM | Report abuse

RJ16, too early to tell unfortunately. Temperature issues seem to be resolving colder but that's not a given nor is the actual track of the best precip. We have time for shifts.

tombeek31, it kind of looks that way!

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 1:26 AM | Report abuse

Super job staying on top of the late runs tonight Ian, thanks for keeping us informed! I'm expecting to wake up to WSW in the morning.

Posted by: petworthlad | January 25, 2011 1:34 AM | Report abuse

I can't sleep! I am so excited we might get snow finally!!! Thanks for all the time and effort and i would LOVE an Android App too.

Posted by: lisajulia | January 25, 2011 1:34 AM | Report abuse

If you produce an accumulation map, can you be sure to include the southern areas like Richmond and Charlottesville please?

Posted by: jwblake | January 25, 2011 1:36 AM | Report abuse

With this new model consensus, I don't know why The Weather Channel and Accuweather still have us down as having all rain. Hopefully they'll catch up soon.

Posted by: tombeek31 | January 25, 2011 1:40 AM | Report abuse

I LOVE SNOW

but... we have to travel into DC (Children's Hospital)from Springfield on Thursday am for our baby's surgery. Is this going to be a big problem with snow? how many inches are we talking about?

Posted by: snowmomma | January 25, 2011 3:36 AM | Report abuse

This is all very exciting, but I for one cannot ignore the fact that this has happened every single miss all season. We are still 36 hours out fromthe start of any snow. I just can't buy in. I hope this dream comes true, but I'm planning on a full week of school and maybe some rain.

Posted by: mamory1975 | January 25, 2011 7:07 AM | Report abuse

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