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Posted at 1:30 PM ET, 01/11/2011

Midday round-up: Light snow event on track

By Jason Samenow

1:30 p.m. update: While some pockets of light snow (mixed with sleet in a few spots, mainly southeast) are falling from the District and to the south, primarily along and east of I-95 - little accumulation (not much more than a dusting) is expected from this activity. We're still expecting the bulk of the snow after 4 p.m., with the best chance of accumulation after 6 p.m. The height of the event may be between about 8 and 10 p.m. or so

From 10:50 a.m.: Widely scattered light snow flurries and snow showers, mixed with sleet in spots, have cruised through the metro region this morning. This activity is associated with overrunning precipitation from weak low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas. As this low interacts with another area of low pressure scooting across the southern Ohio Valley and strengthens, a more solid shield of snow should form this afternoon and evening. We're holding firm with our forecast of about 1" of snow in our southwest suburbs to 2-4" northeast of the District.

Here are some important things to keep in mind:

Most of the accumulating snow probably falls between 6 and 10 p.m.

Radar is unimpressive now, and probably will be until at least mid-afternoon when the coastal storm moves north and starts becoming better organized

Light snow should begin between 1 and 4 p.m. south of the District, between 2 and 5 p.m. around the metro region (especially on the east side). The snow may not stick at first, but as it gets dark, roads may become slick. The second half of rush hour will probably be more difficult than the first.

If snow amounts are outside our forecast range, they are more likely to surprise on the low end than the high end mainly due to the speed at which the storm will be moving.

Keep reading for more...

Other notes:

* I checked in with Wes Junker, our Winter Weather Expert, and he says: "Today's model runs seem to be edging toward a consensus. Our forecast for 1-3 inches for D.C. and points west still looks on tap. The farther west you get from the city, the lighter the amounts should be. Most areas east and northeast of the city should expect 2 or 3 inches with a few spotty 4 inch amounts. I agree with Jason that there is more potential for the snowfall to be on the lighter side of the ranges than on the heavier side."

* The latest models simulate amounts generally consistent with our forecast. The GFS indicates between 0.15-0.2" liquid equivalent at Reagan National, Dulles, and BWI - which is about 1.5-2.0" of snow. The NAM simulates 0.18-0.25" liquid equivalent or about 2-3" (highest at BWI, lowest at Dulles).

* Some school systems are closing early today to the east, southeast, and northeast . In Maryland, Prince George's Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's County have all announced they will close two hours early. Howard county is closing one hour early. In Virginia, early dismissals have been announced in Stafford, Fauquier and Culpeper counties. Several school systems (e.g. Loudoun, Montgomery and Fairfax Co.) have canceled after school activities.

* The Weather Channel indicates 69 percent of the country has snow cover. But not D.C., yet... Florida is the only state without snow cover.

By Jason Samenow  | January 11, 2011; 1:30 PM ET
Categories:  Latest  
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Next: PM Update: Some light snow this evening

Comments

I am ready, milk in the house and a nice brisket to slow cook. No flakes in Falls Church but the sky is heavy and grey. Let the games begin!

Posted by: tbva | January 11, 2011 10:56 AM | Report abuse

Remember, this snow is going to develop over us, so dont be sweating the radar blobs moving in from the S or W. Itll magically pop! But only with .10 to .25 of liquid I fear.

Posted by: DullesARC | January 11, 2011 10:56 AM | Report abuse

I wonder if the gang could explain maybe why the NWS has snow totals higher than the totals the models are providing? I asked a similar question last night but no one had any insight. The models are clearly showing about 1-2 inches around our area but NWS has 3-5 posted for the Baltimore region.

Any ideas?

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 11, 2011 11:11 AM | Report abuse

@CWG--that's an amazing snow cover statistic you site. (I always forget Hawaii has Mauna Kea.) Any chance that this is the first time we've had snow cover in 49 of 50 states?

Posted by: petworthlad | January 11, 2011 11:11 AM | Report abuse

sorry, I meant "cite," not "site."

Posted by: petworthlad | January 11, 2011 11:12 AM | Report abuse

Light snow in Manassas.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 11, 2011 11:17 AM | Report abuse

@petworthlad

It's not a first. In fact, for a short time last winter there was snowcover in all 50 states thanks to a coating in parts of the Florida panhandle. I think there was a post about that here on the CWG blog, but can't find it now.

Posted by: allagar | January 11, 2011 11:17 AM | Report abuse

Light flurries just started in Lake Ridge. Looking at radar, this shouldn't last long. Moving into Fairfax.

Posted by: ZmanVA | January 11, 2011 11:17 AM | Report abuse

@birnbau

Honestly, I don't know.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 11:17 AM | Report abuse

So, I'm wondering why people are saying less snow, more like an dusting, where is people getting other things such we only getting a dusting, maybe they are worried we will be like the Dec 26 STORM... Are we still still getting moderate snow for a bit or more just light snow @ this point??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 11:20 AM | Report abuse

Thanks to birnbau, my forecast of people questioning why CWG is forecasting amounts smaller than they would hope for is already verifying. My models work!!!

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | January 11, 2011 11:23 AM | Report abuse

@Michael_Nguyen

I think there's a chance of some briefly moderate snow at some point in the 6-10 p.m. window - especially from D.C. and to the northeast. It all depends how fast the coastal low can get going. If it's too slow, we'll just have light snow, and probably around 1". If it's faster, that's how we'd get into the 2 or 3" range.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 11:25 AM | Report abuse

@: SouthsideFFX

what are your models forecasting?

Posted by: 882181 | January 11, 2011 11:26 AM | Report abuse

@Petworthlad, @Allegar, there was indeed some snow, in mid-February 2010, I believe, in Century, Florida, north of Pensacola. A CWG commenter in Mobile also reported snow. Definitely 49 of the 50 states had snow cover that day, but maybe not all 50.

Tom Keiren is still going w/ 2-4". I'm staying with my 1.1" DCA estimate last night and hope I'm undershooting it.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 11:30 AM | Report abuse

Thanks CWG... IT all depends on the Costal Low... As we speak now, how does the Costal Low? Any strengthens or intesifying or still no sign of strengthens right now??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 11:32 AM | Report abuse

@882181, a lot of disappionted and angry rants from snowlovers, some directed at CWG!

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | January 11, 2011 11:35 AM | Report abuse

@SouthsideFFX ---> I like your statements, but still confuse about it... LOL... You mentioned "Your Model works".... verify... Your saying CWG is going for smaller amounts on you see or something else??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 11:41 AM | Report abuse

lol very funny southside. Was looking for more of a technical analysis than to fulfill my hopes but you're right, def fishing for reasons for more snow :).

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 11, 2011 11:42 AM | Report abuse

@Michael, I was kidding about having a model to predict how people will react in the comments section. It was a bad joke, I admit . . .

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | January 11, 2011 11:42 AM | Report abuse

No changes to my models. Most DC and subs (PW, FFX, LC, MC) will see a trace with up to 1". Storm may start a little later and may move faster than originally predicted by others so we will get less! If you get more than 1" consider yourself lucky! Sorry snow lovers!

Posted by: Firedude | January 11, 2011 11:45 AM | Report abuse

@SouthsideFFX, no, it was actually a pretty funny joke! (and it's verifying as predicted)

Posted by: petworthlad | January 11, 2011 11:46 AM | Report abuse

When the model output gives liquid, does it account for eroding the dry layers? And if not, is there a formula for calculating how much of that liquid goes into saturation? Could as much as an inch of snow be lost to evaporation?

Posted by: MaltyCharacter | January 11, 2011 11:47 AM | Report abuse

@Michael_Nguyen

Not enough time has really elapsed to see if the low is developing faster/slower than the models. But the low is positioned on the western side of models, which is favorable for snow.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 11:49 AM | Report abuse

I certainly could be wrong about that coastal low. It just started strengthening in the last Unisys pressure map: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_pres.gif Now it's all in the timing of how fast it strengthens versus how fast it moves.

Posted by: eric654 | January 11, 2011 11:49 AM | Report abuse

exceedingly light flurry/mix in Tenleytown...almost not worth mentioning except I feel like a school kid waiting for an early dismissal...

Posted by: amandap2986 | January 11, 2011 11:49 AM | Report abuse

Interesting..... about reading people's comment on here compared to the CWG post... I'm just going to read them and laughed until the event starts....

@SouthsideFFX ---> still like the positive side of this joke, we can only wish this storm bomb out in the Carolina's and moved up here....

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 11:50 AM | Report abuse

if Florida is the ONLY state without snow cover, then you're telling me there's snow in Hawaii?!

Posted by: ouij | January 11, 2011 11:51 AM | Report abuse

Snowing at L'Enfant!

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | January 11, 2011 11:52 AM | Report abuse

ouji - there is snow on the mountain tops in Hawaii. Like Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.

Posted by: Finn1917 | January 11, 2011 11:53 AM | Report abuse

ouij - usually this time of year there is snow on the highest volcano peaks in the Hawaiian islands, yes

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 11:54 AM | Report abuse

@ CWG --> Interesting that you mentioned that the Low is positioned on the Western Side... Is it supposed to poisitoned on the Western Side or more the Eastern side of the model??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 11:55 AM | Report abuse

Big, fluffy snowflakes falling lightly near the GW Campus in Foggy Bottom.

Posted by: Rkvinthehizzy | January 11, 2011 11:55 AM | Report abuse

Ouij:

The snow in Hawaii is found on top of Mauna Kea. I have heard you can even ski on it...

Posted by: pino149 | January 11, 2011 11:58 AM | Report abuse

@Michael_Nguyen It's "supposed" to be positioned halfway east of the west side and halfway west of the east side. It doesn't know this, though.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 11, 2011 12:00 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 12:01 PM | Report abuse

By the way, it's snowing out.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 12:04 PM | Report abuse

@ AsymptoticUnlimited ---> Does the position matters at this point?, So what you saying the Costal Low as of now is in a position where it's favorable for our end for a little snow? I just want 2 Inches plus of snow....

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 12:06 PM | Report abuse

Hi CWG,

Is it snowing "early"?

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | January 11, 2011 12:07 PM | Report abuse

since the 12z NAM had initialization errors, do we go back to the 6z "morning surprise" NAM?

Posted by: krg3m | January 11, 2011 12:12 PM | Report abuse

Reports of initialization errors on the 12z NAM. Is this looking more like the 6z NAM now?

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/morning_round-up_light_snow_ev.html#more


12Z NAM EVALUATION

MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE INDICATED UNDER THE RELEVANT
SYSTEM HEADING.

...ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD...

WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM SFC ANALYSIS IS ABOUT 2
MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED... AND MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE
OBSERVED POSN. DEPENDING ON THE FCST HR THE NAM MID LVL SYSTEM IS
IN THE MIDDLE OR SLOWER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE SFC LOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST IS GENERALLY IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE
ENVELOPE. FROM TUE INTO WED THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS SHOW
GRADUALLY FASTER TREND WITH LEADING MID LVL HGT FALLS PROGRESSING
FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND
DIMINISHES BY F36 LATE WED. THE NAM COMPARES WELL TO OTHER WELL
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WITH WEAKENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE W OF THE
APLCHNS.

Posted by: MVPlaya8120 | January 11, 2011 12:15 PM | Report abuse

@MichaelNguyen I'm not an expert, but -- yes -- if the low trends west that could increase snow totals. However, if it speeds up in forward momentum or develops later those factors could offset the benefit of any westward shift.

I'm sure the gang will weigh in if anything material is changing.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 11, 2011 12:16 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: MVPlaya8120 | January 11, 2011 12:18 PM | Report abuse

CWG--thanks so much for keeping us informed and educated!! I have a quick question about virga. My layman's understanding of virga is that it is snow that falls aloft and cannot make it to the ground because the air closer to the ground is not saturated enough (right?). So, the fact that we are seeing snowflakes falling now, at noon, does that mean that the atmosphere is sufficiently saturated to support snowfall making it to the ground when the bulk of the moisture first arrives here later today? Or could we still face a period of virga later today?

Posted by: Rkvinthehizzy | January 11, 2011 12:19 PM | Report abuse

Light flurry in Edgewater, MD just south of Annapolis.

Posted by: durhamquilter | January 11, 2011 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Light snow/flurries falling in Lanham, MD (PG County)

Posted by: dcg35 | January 11, 2011 12:20 PM | Report abuse

MVPlaya8120,
....uh...english, please?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 11, 2011 12:22 PM | Report abuse

@Rkvinthehizzy

Your understanding is correct. We could see a bit of virga, but relative humidities are around 50%-- and, as you state, some of the precip echoes coming through are already reaching the ground... so I don't think we'll have a lot of it. It's a bigger deal with really low dew points and RH levels.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 12:25 PM | Report abuse

I'm not understanding this error thing I see something about weakens, so does this mean it's weakens then expected or soemthing else, someone please translate or give detail that I or we can understand?, so which model we go by now??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 12:25 PM | Report abuse

No snow at all in Woodley Park.

Posted by: motc | January 11, 2011 12:29 PM | Report abuse

@Michael_Nguyen --

relax, dude!

Posted by: natsncats | January 11, 2011 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Tiny sleet here in Falls Church. Smell of brisket cooking is heaven

Posted by: tbva | January 11, 2011 12:45 PM | Report abuse

This is the fault of the much-unneeded rain crowd...right at Clarendon Ballroom dance time, and they don't seem willing to cancel.

This was supposed to be the first dance class of 2011...now it looks as though the dance crowd will be limited to 20 persons or less and the dance students will go to the make-up class at Nick's tomorrow night.

Frankly I'd prefer NO winter weather events on Tuesday night, except for Feb. 1 when our dance will get bumped by a "private event".

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 11, 2011 12:45 PM | Report abuse

NWS just downgraded my area of Hyattsville down from 2-4 inches this morning now to 1-2 inches tonight. I think they are seeing what ive thought all along this storm develops to late for anything more than 2 inches in and around DC metro, including the east side into PG.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 11, 2011 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Snow falling in Crystal City. Fairly large flakes too.

Posted by: AhhYes | January 11, 2011 12:58 PM | Report abuse

I'm seeing five or six snowflakes near Union Station. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?????????????

Sorry, I couldn't resist . . . :)

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | January 11, 2011 12:59 PM | Report abuse

Day After Christmas Storm Part Deux!

Posted by: greg2010 | January 11, 2011 12:59 PM | Report abuse

Some light flurries in downtown DC right now. Isn't this a little earlier than expected? Very light though, and it's still above freezing.

Posted by: superseiyan | January 11, 2011 1:01 PM | Report abuse

Snowing at Andrews Air Force Base

Posted by: luvhh1 | January 11, 2011 1:02 PM | Report abuse

Flurries in Georgetown just started. But coming straight down, not being blown around.

I agree -- isn't this a little early?

Posted by: Georgetwoner | January 11, 2011 1:04 PM | Report abuse

Maybe the storm is moving fast then expected, well I see the rador is filling in a little bit....

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 1:04 PM | Report abuse

Michael...go with the Radar...models are pointless at this point. Look at it in a few hours...say 3 or 4PM. Then get excited. Gang - Light snow has been falling in Reston for the past 20 mins...I know the L is still trying to form but it's nice to look at! While I'm expecting little or no accumulation, I'll take that inch you're forecasting!

Posted by: parksndc | January 11, 2011 1:04 PM | Report abuse

radar look like its filling in pretty good

Posted by: lilbryan3 | January 11, 2011 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Unbelievable. The media has been publishing end-of-the-world type forecasts for today, and outside I see nothing. Anything to pump up ad sales, apparently.

Posted by: getjiggly2 | January 11, 2011 1:13 PM | Report abuse

Can't wait for that energy from the midwest comes through this way.... @parksndc --> I get oyur point since model are not clear this winter.. We will see what will happened!

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 1:13 PM | Report abuse

My area has been downgraded to 2-4 inches as well :(.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 11, 2011 1:17 PM | Report abuse

Coming down heavily in Penn Quarter!
Oh wait - that's just from the window-washers across the street.

Posted by: bodypolitic1 | January 11, 2011 1:19 PM | Report abuse

Hah! FCPS is going to be Xceled on Wed. I'm going outside right now and offer my frozen sacrifices to the Snow Gawds!!! You have been warned!

Posted by: JoStalin | January 11, 2011 1:20 PM | Report abuse

It's all so disappointing. But I wonder if snow lovers all really love "snow" or do we all live such hectic and busy lives we love an excuse to simply have a bit of downtime. For me, it's the latter I think.

The forecasts I've checked for next week show rain. Boo.

Posted by: biketraveller22 | January 11, 2011 1:23 PM | Report abuse

@getjiggly2

Do you have any examples you can point to? I haven't see any such doomsday forecasts. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 1:25 PM | Report abuse

I would be SHOCKED if FCPS cancel for wed...that wouldn't make sense. They can handle an inch of snow with several hours to salt (and an additional 2 inches of salt on the roads already).

Posted by: parksndc | January 11, 2011 1:25 PM | Report abuse

I doubt FCPS will close for Wed. A delayed arrival seems feasible though.

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | January 11, 2011 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Anyone know what Universities are likely to do with evening/night classes?

Also anyone know of any chance this winter that we can be pleasantly surprised rather than underwhelmed?

Posted by: superseiyan | January 11, 2011 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Sarah Palin caused this snowstorm.

Posted by: johnfchick1 | January 11, 2011 1:29 PM | Report abuse

CWG- Any news on the model being farther west than anticipated?

I'm a Loudouner and we need a lot more snow this season. Practically drought conditions here.

Posted by: celt1 | January 11, 2011 1:33 PM | Report abuse

I was seeing flurries at IAD from 1145-1300, but they've passed. Planes flying by at slightly less than normal pace, per my casual observation. Probably related to events in the south.

Posted by: staticvars | January 11, 2011 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Snow job on this web page...

Posted by: hofbrauhausde | January 11, 2011 1:38 PM | Report abuse

Fairfax County Public Schools just cancelled all after school and evening activities for tonight!

Posted by: Firedude | January 11, 2011 1:42 PM | Report abuse

Now getting serious "snow globe" snow downtown.

Posted by: bodypolitic1 | January 11, 2011 1:53 PM | Report abuse

@biketraveller22 spot on that's why no Washingtonian really wants to move to the North; up there snow doesn't shut everything down so even in 4" + you still have to go to work school etc.

Posted by: kolya02 | January 11, 2011 1:56 PM | Report abuse

FINALLY... a few flakes in Glover Park; I guess we've been in the dry slot, since others are reporting good snow to the SE of here.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Can we get an update on CWG's accumulation? Down here in Fredericksburg, it says we're not even gonna get an inch and then it's gonna get messy...is that the case?

Posted by: krg3m | January 11, 2011 1:56 PM | Report abuse

There's a load of flakes in the White House!!!

Posted by: Computer_Forensics_Expert_Computer_Expert_Witness | January 11, 2011 2:02 PM | Report abuse

What is the yukky looking green stuff the trucks are spreading onto residential (and perhaps downtown) streets?

We got three snowflakes (now ended) and they started laying down this mixture. This is as bad as 12/26 when the chemicals were deeper than the snow.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 2:05 PM | Report abuse

Thank God all those schools closed 2 hours early. Look at the blizzard out there! Oh sorry, by blizzard I meant just a stray snow flurry every now and then.

Posted by: rwalker66 | January 11, 2011 2:08 PM | Report abuse

The Weather Channelguy (c/o of CNBC)saying max of 1 inch in D.C. Bummer.

Posted by: jdtdc | January 11, 2011 2:10 PM | Report abuse

The green stuff is a specially treated salt that is more effective than the white stuff and less damaging to the environment. Of course in this city, you are damned if you do damned if you don't. We have been on the cusp of heavy snow for the last two storms, so the city reacts as it should, erring on the side of caution. Stop complaining and just be grateful we have the capacity to respond to storms. Geez!!!

Posted by: concernedaboutdc | January 11, 2011 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Let it snow. Hey, a civilized posting site!! I'll stick with the CWG.

Posted by: jckdoors | January 11, 2011 2:13 PM | Report abuse

@krg3m

We have no change in our accumulation forecast for the moment but will have an update around 3:30 p.m. Around Fredericksburg, however, I would definitely say you'd be at the low end of our forecast range (1-3") because the storm is developing further north.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Snowing in Laurel!!!

SNOW!!!! SNNNNOOOOOOWWWWWW!!!!!

Okay, sorry, got a little excited. Had to move my chair to the other side of the table so I can watch the snow while I work!

Posted by: megamuphen | January 11, 2011 2:19 PM | Report abuse

@ConcernedaboutDC, as a taxpayer, I see dollars being wasted when manpower and material are used when they are unneeded. We had five minutes of light flurries, the air temperature is currently 33.6 degrees and the trucks go crazy laying down this junk. Classic waste of taxpayer money.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Okay, it stopped. Breath deep.

Posted by: megamuphen | January 11, 2011 2:23 PM | Report abuse

I just came out of a weather.com live chat and Tim Ballisty just told me we'd be lucky to see 2 inches in DC metro. He said these 2 storms will phase way to late to give us more than 2 inches anywhere in DC met, but he'd be surprised to see the 2 inches.

December 26 part deux.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 11, 2011 2:25 PM | Report abuse

Strange crunchy little nuggety snow (more like tiny tiny hail?) fell on Capitol Hill for a few minutes just now. o_0 (

Posted by: NaomiHB | January 11, 2011 2:26 PM | Report abuse

@NaomiHB

That's a little light sleet. Thanks for the report.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 2:28 PM | Report abuse

In Manassas: brief periods of drizzle sometimes mixed with very light snow.
But mostly nothing.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 11, 2011 2:29 PM | Report abuse

@jerryfloyd1

i havent pre treated the streets in the town I work for at all. One it is a waste of money and 2, whats the point? 1-3 inches of snow and they are pre treating, really?

I'll be salting when all is said and done and plowing (if necessary) in between.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 11, 2011 2:30 PM | Report abuse

Still nothing at all in Woodley Park.

Posted by: motc | January 11, 2011 2:33 PM | Report abuse

A few snow flakes in Tysons Corner while I was at lunch, but it stopped now.

Posted by: dantebouchot | January 11, 2011 2:33 PM | Report abuse

@ KRUZ and other morons..we know we will be lucky to see 2 inches that's exactly what has been called for.

I expected 2 inches that's what has been said since Saturday.....a lot of dreamers out here. That being said Go Snow! If you are dissapointed in the storm just admit it....but please don't be a negative Nellie for the rest of us that can manage our expectations.

While there are many great posts here there are some others that are obnoxious.

Posted by: inthemiddle2 | January 11, 2011 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Looks like the snow blossoming is already taking place to the north of us, over southern PA. That is not good, it appears we'll be south of even the beginnings of the phasing lows. No snow for DC I fear.

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | January 11, 2011 2:37 PM | Report abuse

I think we should all applaud @inthemiddle2 for providing such a shining example of an obnoxious post. Kudos!

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 11, 2011 2:40 PM | Report abuse

Strong dry slot on water vapor satellite imagery coming up the Ohio River valley. One would think that unless the coastal low starts developing moderate snow in the DC area by around 6 p.m at the latest, it will be a just a duster (

Posted by: ronbcust | January 11, 2011 2:40 PM | Report abuse

What will the accumulations be in Bethesda? Any chance of no school in MOCO tomorrow?

Posted by: MocoSnow | January 11, 2011 2:43 PM | Report abuse

@inthemiddle

actually im more excited for the lack of snow than I am disappointed about the lack of it. im excited at the concept of No Snow! as id like to spend the night with my family rather than out plowing/salting until sometime tomorrow morning :/

LOL a the moron comment. If CWG had an age verification comments such as your wouldnt be on here. Kids, gotta love em!

Posted by: KRUZ | January 11, 2011 2:47 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ - Thanks for that update...Not surprised one bit. I would put MONEY on the 20% no accumulation forecast right now. I'm going to be happy with a dusting in Resotn. Gang - What's the payout for that one? Just curious :) I have a feeling that accumulation map is going to start moving to the extreme far right. The DC black hole for snow this winter!

Posted by: parksndc | January 11, 2011 2:48 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of the green salt, I just walked down Calvert St NW toward the Woodley Park metro and the bridge is completely coated in at least an inch of that stuff! They have basically turned the bridge into a green sandy beach. I took some pictures with my phone and sent them to family in Boston - DC maaaay have overreacted a tiny bit with the pre-treating. Got a chuckle out of it though!

Posted by: CuseFan07 | January 11, 2011 2:48 PM | Report abuse

"There's a load of flakes in the White House!!!" -- @Computer_Forensics_Expert_Computer_Expert_Witness

Ugh, you should be really bloated with all that hot air. Even weather is politicized in this area. That sucks.

Posted by: tressoleilgoddess | January 11, 2011 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Folks- Opinions are welcome but let's avoid name calling. Thanks.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 2:54 PM | Report abuse

Okay, the DC pretreating excess has gotten so out of control that even Bob Ryan was making fun of it on WJLA recently. (He said something about "the white stuff" being salt instead of snow.) Apart from the general "culture of fear" that has overtaken everything these days, I wonder if it could be: (1) excess inventory of chemicals this year, and wanting to use up what they have, or (2) Mayor Gray remembering last season's inadequate efforts and not wanting to be "Fenty'ed" himself.

Posted by: petworthlad | January 11, 2011 2:56 PM | Report abuse

Update on Water vapor dry slots: Strong dry slot on Water vapor imagery also coming rapidly northeast from TN valley. It looks like a trace event. "Snow hole" rules for DC area.

Posted by: ronbcust | January 11, 2011 2:57 PM | Report abuse

The snow gods have smoten VA again... why??

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

:(

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | January 11, 2011 2:58 PM | Report abuse

So, I'm wondering since it's looking like we may just get a dusting, well what I'm reading on here, but still the same snowfall totals from most meteorologist from the range of 1-3, but I see NBC4 still sticking to 2-4 Inches.... But if we only get a dusting then why is the DC Metro Area still under a WWA, if everyone keeps saying a dusting??

Then I wish we (DC Metro Area) was located up north.... Thanks "La Nina" for this pattern of missing big storms.... OH WELL!!!

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 2:59 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ, You are incredibly naive to think that age verification would make any difference. Everyone would be born January 1st 1970. You are the one being childish.

Posted by: samdman95 | January 11, 2011 3:00 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Jason. inthemiddle2 - don't know if you were also aiming that at me but no need to call me a moron, my wife reminds me every day...I am one. Btw, CWG have done another outstanding job of forecasitng this one so far...regardless of where this L forms (too far north or just right)...they were about as close as you can get with the data they have. I still think they have the best forecast out there for the DC Met area.

Posted by: parksndc | January 11, 2011 3:00 PM | Report abuse

Could the green stuff reported be pickle juice used as a brine snow melt?

Posted by: spgass1 | January 11, 2011 3:02 PM | Report abuse

Snow started, I would say at a rate of 1 inch per year :(

Posted by: dannythe357 | January 11, 2011 3:05 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ,
glad to hear that the "green stuff" is more effective and less ecologically harmful than "regular" snow salting. what chemicals are in it? as i mentioned, i think, many roads around here were pre-treated (w/"regular stuff", i think) as of yesterday afternoon....

do you think pre- or post-treating works better? probably depends on the amount of snow expected?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 11, 2011 3:06 PM | Report abuse

When Dan of CWG asked @getjiggly2

"Do you have any examples you can point to? I haven't see any such doomsday forecasts" I immediately thought of the teasers that CWG's own Washington Post puts on the front page of the web site. This morning's teaser was something like "Area to see up to 4 inches" when, in fact, CWG's own forecast for the "area" called for 4 inches in a very small portion, and for far smaller amounts (1 inch or less of snow) in a big chunk of the region.)

This afternoon's teaser was something like "How much snow will DC Region see?" was a little better, but still far too breathless. Maybe it's still too early to call this storm a bust (even before it was scheduled to begin), but some members of CWG on other boards have been offering such indications. So, my complaint is that CWG's forecast is being misused by its own newspaper -- to drive hit rates. CWG should try to obtain the ability to edit the front page teasers, so that they more closely align with the forecast. Otherwise, CWG's own impeccable reputation might suffer.

Posted by: reedd1 | January 11, 2011 3:12 PM | Report abuse

dannythe357,
"...1 inch a year"

hahahaha...wawawawaawawaaawaaahhhh

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 11, 2011 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Quick Question for those weather geeks on here.... I'm on www.weather.com website, I see there "Current Surface" Map as of 2:58 PM, I see the two Low, but in between those Lows there's a dotted purple line, does that mean anything?... Not sure use if it mean it phasing now or about to transfer some of it's energy....

Just some explain, I'm into these type of things, well starting too... lol

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Storm is forming too far north. Sorry DC, but now it looks like we might not even see a trace from this one!

Posted by: Firedude | January 11, 2011 3:17 PM | Report abuse

I for one am really sick of the overeager "pre-treating" of roads this winter in the District - it is annoying, disruptive and expensive. We'll all soon be grappling with budget cuts, so I propose easing up on the damn green salt as a start.

Posted by: dwt301 | January 11, 2011 3:17 PM | Report abuse

Light snow in Chantilly near Dulles.Very light.

Posted by: mikeyva44 | January 11, 2011 3:17 PM | Report abuse

Storm is forming too far north. Sorry DC, but now it looks like we might not even see a trace from this one!

Posted by: Firedude | January 11, 2011 3:19 PM | Report abuse

So when does the forecast for accumulating snow get taken down?

At some point the radar does not lie, no matter what the models have said for the past week. Right now the radar is saying "bust" on any forecasts of accumulating snow, and the models are draining qpf from our area like a sink drain has been unplugged.

Unless that dry slot gets magically filled with moisture, WYSIWYG, so...yah. Storm CANCEL!

Posted by: fred_p_harris | January 11, 2011 3:19 PM | Report abuse

Not ready to call this a bust but am coming close to the conclusion. Phasing is already beginning north of our area. The fact that Fredericksburg VA has an advisory posted is a joke. No way snow is gonna be that far south. It's at the point where we can just look at the radar and watch, but even with that said the latest Nam doesn't even give DC an inch.

Looks like the best probabilities are off again for the gang, but hopefully this storm can prove us wrong in the next few hours.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 11, 2011 3:21 PM | Report abuse

Michael_Nguyen - Check the radar around 7/8pm tonight...you're going to go crazy looking at the maps right now...trust me.

Posted by: parksndc | January 11, 2011 3:21 PM | Report abuse

It is funny - CWG correctly predicted the mass snow lover panic due to bad radar images... and sure enough, that's exactly what's happening!

I don't see that anything is off track yet with the predicted timing. I think CWG's forecast looks on target.

Posted by: jahutch | January 11, 2011 3:21 PM | Report abuse

Wow people here need to read the article!

"Most of the accumulating snow probably falls between 6 and 10 p.m.

Radar is unimpressive now, and probably will be until at least mid-afternoon when the coastal storm moves north and starts becoming better organized"

Posted by: samdman95 | January 11, 2011 3:22 PM | Report abuse

@ parksndc ---> when you mean crazy, a good thing or bad thing!!! ;)

@ jahutch ---> I agreed with you.... I suggest next time in an event like this, the TITLE should put, "DON"T PANIC ABOUT THE RADOR!", I mean too bad this it was in small print, well not that small

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 3:24 PM | Report abuse

jahutch I understand where you're coming from but at the same time I also strongly believe the mets thought there would be a mass of precip to our southwest developing at this point. This just isn't happening. In fact, it's happening to the north. Unless phasing starts infusing some moisture to the southwest the chances for a bust are increasing rapidly with every radar update.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 11, 2011 3:25 PM | Report abuse

NWS just pulled eastern LoCo back from less than an inch today and 1-2 tonight to less than an inch for both today and tonight. And I started the day at around an inch today and 1-3 tonight. Got that? Western areas miss again. The good news is that tomorrow's commute doesnt sound so daunting. Its only Jan. 11. A long way to go this frustrating winter, but we will get ours. Oh yes we will. We will get ours.

Posted by: DullesARC | January 11, 2011 3:25 PM | Report abuse

jahutch, thanks for the support - and know that of course we will keep monitoring and updating you all if anything changes. Drive safely tonight!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 3:25 PM | Report abuse

@ bbirnbau ---> Speaking of NAM, was one of the model had some type of errors, not sure if that effect with precipitation or the position of the storm, not sure if anyone looking at the models anymore since most of them in disagreement, the way I'm hearing from ppl...

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 3:27 PM | Report abuse

I can't believe people are referring to a 1-3 inch storm as a "bust" if we get no snow, but anyway...fred_p_harris - go back and read the forecast from the CWG...they LITERALLY call out the potential for people to freak out by looking at the radar during the day, it won't show you much. CWG - another prediction nailed! haha.

Posted by: parksndc | January 11, 2011 3:27 PM | Report abuse

12th and E NW: currently the woman in the office across the way is drinking coffee. The man in the office on the next floor up is leaning back in his chair, talking on the phone. The man two floors down is playing minesweeper (who still DOES that?). I see no snow, although we had nice fat snow flakes earlier.

Posted by: wahoo2x | January 11, 2011 3:31 PM | Report abuse

jahutch, you said,

"It is funny - CWG correctly predicted the mass snow lover panic due to bad radar images... and sure enough, that's exactly what's happening!"

was that CWG's or dprats21's forecast?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 11, 2011 3:31 PM | Report abuse

Yup!! Short of a miracle, throw the towel in on this one!! Can't win for losin'. Just not our year, I guess. Oh well, still holding out for that miracle!

Posted by: johnnierat | January 11, 2011 3:32 PM | Report abuse

DullesARC - may you get as much snow as you desire tonight! ;)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 3:32 PM | Report abuse

@Michael_Nguyen,

Yes but this error occured on the 12z NAM run, don't think there were any problems with the 18z that just came out.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 11, 2011 3:33 PM | Report abuse

While temperatures are mostly below-freezing throughout the region, precipitation will be widely scattered and light for a couple more hours.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 3:37 PM | Report abuse

@ bbrimbau ---> Thanks!

@ CWG ------> When is your next update blog, love reading about your anaysis and then see ppl write comments like my self....

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 3:38 PM | Report abuse

The NWS has changed the forecast to more of a mix and an 1-1.5" total. When does the next CWG post go up?

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 3:38 PM | Report abuse

I'm wondering about the sleet/snow mix late night NWS is calling for... I bet we will be glad for pretreated roads then!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 11, 2011 3:39 PM | Report abuse

WOW! I see the NWS has taken a chunk of WWA down,, mmm Interesting!

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Finally, it's nice to be HOME after a long day at work. Now I just sit back, relax and watch the snow!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Michael_Nguyen - thanks for following us and reading our analysis! Hope to have another update for you soon. Usually we put an update out around now each day, but we want to make sure we have the latest data for you first. Give us just a bit more time. Will try to come back here and comment when new post is up.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 3:45 PM | Report abuse

So, I'm hearing the models are little of with this storm, now the phasing seems to be a little later then expected, maybe Philadelphia won't get that much snow, if this resource told me is correct about the storm is phasing later then expected....

CWG where are you??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 3:45 PM | Report abuse

Yup!! Short of a miracle, throw the towel in on this one!! Can't win for losin'. Just not our year, I guess. Oh well, still holding out for that miracle!

Posted by: johnnierat | January 11, 2011 3:32 PM |
--------------------------------------------------
You're right; it's not our year, but I'm still confident that we'll see at least one storm of 6"+!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 3:46 PM | Report abuse

A new update has been posted; let's move the discussion over there.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 3:47 PM | Report abuse

Skies are brightening in Chinatown now. Do I even see a little bit of sun peeking through?

Posted by: rhingo | January 11, 2011 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Deja vu

Posted by: Rcmorgan | January 11, 2011 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Well at least the drive home from DC won't be a four hour crawl along I-95 South this evening.

Posted by: Firedude | January 11, 2011 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Hello all, Bob is right, just now at 345pm we have a new post for you! Hope you find it informative. Thanks again for reading & commenting. Means a lot.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 3:50 PM | Report abuse

I can't believe people are referring to a 1-3 inch storm as a "bust" if we get no snow, but anyway...fred_p_harris - go back and read the forecast from the CWG...they LITERALLY call out the potential for people to freak out by looking at the radar during the day, it won't show you much. CWG - another prediction nailed! haha.

Haha indeed. No snow for us. 1-3 inches from 2-4 inches from 4-6+ inches...that's a trend right there. A downward trend that ends in light flurries and zero accumulation.

That is basically the only way a "forecast" for 1-3 inches can bust, and that is exactly how it's going down.

Think Spring!

And yeah, they did say people would freak because radar would show nothing, but it actually shows nothing much further south than I believe anyone thought it would. It is not filling in on the back end because, I guess, it is phasing too far north for us.

And the Ohio Valley lopres looks to be moving NE. If was moving ENE, I might think we could get an inch before it pulls off north.

If there is *any* accumulaton, I will be very very surprised.

Posted by: fred_p_harris | January 11, 2011 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Hawaii has snow cover?

Posted by: Langway4Eva | January 11, 2011 3:54 PM | Report abuse

I'm cold and I need to get some more soap.

Posted by: goodtoknow | January 11, 2011 4:09 PM | Report abuse

WHERE'S THE SNOW?

I'm so disappointed.

Posted by: akumar1 | January 11, 2011 4:35 PM | Report abuse

Yes, there is often snow in Hawaii, on the Big Island peaks of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa, which rise to nearly 14,000 feet. On very rare occasions, Maui's Haleakala, which rises to 10,000 feet, also gets snow.

http://www.monster-island.net/2010/12/white-christmas-in-hawaii.html

But I think an earlier commenter was wrong about the 50-for-50 working out last year. It was one of those rare occasions where Florida had snow but Hawaii didn't:

http://www.monster-island.net/2010/02/49-out-of-50-would-be-high.html

Posted by: kushibo | January 14, 2011 4:24 AM | Report abuse

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