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Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 01/24/2011

Near rain-snow line for significant Wed. storm

By Jason Samenow

During a winter where almost every precipitation forecast has been tough, predicting Wednesday's storm may be the most challenging. What we can now say with confidence is a storm is quite likely beginning early Wednesday morning with precipitation taking multiple forms across the region before it all ends Wednesday night.

Next accumulating snow chance: Late Tues. night-Wed. night
Probability of more than 1" of snow: 40-45%
Probability of more than 4": 15-20%

The best chance of frozen precipitation in the immediate metro region will be early Wednesday morning and then again Wednesday night. During the day, mixed precipitation probably changes to rain except well to the north and west.

Keep reading a discussion of what most likely to expect by zone...

At the moment (subject to change a bit), start time for the precipitation would look to be from 3 a.m. to 7 a.m. Wednesday from southwest to northeast as the low approaches from the south.

jan26.gif
Zone map.

Here's our current thinking of what to expect by zone. Please note there is considerable uncertainty in this forecast, especially in Zones 2 and 3 which are closest to the rain/snow line. So slight shifts in the storm would have significant implications...

Zone 1: Mostly rain for the entire event (with amounts over 1" possible), although some possibility (30-40% chance) of a quick thump of wet snow as the intense upper level disturbance pivots through the area Wednesday night (between 9 p.m. and midnight).

Zone 2: There may be enough stale cold air for the precipitation to start briefly as snow and/or sleet early Wednesday morning, especially on the west side of this zone. But any accumulation would be light. The chances of frozen precipitation at the onset increase if the low takes a track farther to the east and our winds stay from the north. Otherwise, rain is most likely during the day Wednesday and it may be moderate to heavy. Temperatures are cold- probably only in the mid-30s. Models do indicate a pretty good chance that the rain turns to snow Wednesday night (between 7 and midnight) as the upper level low moves by to our east. Some accumulation is possible, especially on the west side of this zone. A couple models indicate the potential for a few inches while others indicate less.

Zone 3: There's a pretty good chance the precipitation starts as snow and/or sleet in this area, with some light accumulation possible. It's within this zone that the rain/snow line is most likely to setup during the day. So some spots within this zone may see mostly rain (most likely on the east side) but mixing at times with snow and sleet while other spots (most likely on the west side and/or the higher terrain) remain mostly snow, mixing at times with sleet or rain. It's still a bit early to project snowfall potential here, but several inches are certainly possible with the best chance of accumulating snow after 5 p.m. Wednesday night.

Zone 4: The region is most likely to see all snow, though some mixing can't be ruled out if the storm takes a more westerly track. There's potential for 6 inches or more snow here, especially in the higher elevations. Of course, if the storm takes a more easterly track, then precipitation amounts in this zone would be less.

Here are the latest thoughts (some of it is technical) from Wes Junker, our Winter Weather Expert:

"The models are gradually reaching a consensus though there are still some differences in the forecast storm track with the this morning's NAM being the most eastward of the operational models. I'm discounting its forecast feeling it may be having trouble with its convective scheme and the resultant latent heating which may be feeding back into the pressure field and may be pushing the low too quickly out to sea. Therefore, my thoughts are based mainly on this morning's GFS and last night's Euro model forecasts."

"The rain-snow line looks like it will be west of the city based on this morning's model runs. Low level temperatures suggest that the bulk of the precipitation probably will be in the form of rain inside of the beltway as the temperatures in the lowest 5,000 feet warm above freezing. Farther west toward Leesburg, Virginia and Frederick, Maryland and beyond, the picture is less clear as the temperatures aloft are perilously close to freezing which might support snow especially if the low were to track slightly farther east while still spreading decent precipitation into the region."

"Toward the mountain of West Virginia and Maryland, most of the precipitation probably will fall as snow. Toward the end of the storm, there could be a period of wet sloppy snow Wednesday night with a changeover occurring northwest of the city first and then gradually working it was was and southeast as the upper level energy moves through the region."

(I received Wes's analysis above after I wrote the zone outlooks above. It's reassuring that they're consistent - we're both thinking the same thing).

To close, I should emphasize there is considerable uncertainty in this forecast. Temperatures are very marginal for snow, but this is a dynamic storm so slight changes in the track could make the difference between mostly heavy rain and heavy snow. You'll want to stay tuned for updates...

By Jason Samenow  | January 24, 2011; 12:00 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Updates, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: D.C. Decembers: Trending colder?
Next: PM Update: Headed warmer, at least briefly

Comments

CWG, bottom line—what has to happen for us to get SOME snow at ANY point this winter? Not even a blizzard. Just something fun enough to make a snowman, or the throw some snowballs or to take photos in the landscape. 2-4” should do the trick? Is February snow possible? This might make an interesting blog post BTW, and I think it would generate a lot of interest.

Two maddening non-snow events this season highlight the frustration of snow lovers:

1. Recently when literally there was snow almost everywhere from ALABAMA right up to New England, and there was basically literally a circle around DC—showing that DC alone was untouched by the snow.
2. This current spell during which we’ve just endured wind chills in the single digits for several days running, only to find out that a storm is coming, but that the temperature would’ve warmed up to NEAR 50s the day before. Talk about adding insult to injury, it really can’t get any worse than that.

Cheers, and keep up the good work as always. Also hope you know our frustration is at the lack of snow yet biting cold winter, not at YOU. We love you guys!

Posted by: superseiyan | January 24, 2011 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Zone 3 baby!!!! I just need a good 4 inches to satisfy my need for snow. Come on storm.

Posted by: jbernard703 | January 24, 2011 12:15 PM | Report abuse

Sheesh another tough one. Either this drives you guys (CWG) crazy or you live for this. Or maybe a bit of both? Quick question. How much have the overall storm trends this winter been factored into this forecast, or is it based mostly on recent model runs?

Posted by: dcg35 | January 24, 2011 12:16 PM | Report abuse

@dcg35

It's seasonal trends, the models, and our gut instinct driving this forecast. Any one of them could be wrong ... this why we're all banging our heads with this one

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 12:19 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the analysis. Is the uncertainty whether we (in DC) will get heavy rain or heavy snow, or whether we will get any precip at all? Does the storm track matter as much for whether we get snow, or is that more dependent on other factors that are equally uncertain at this time?

Posted by: jms12 | January 24, 2011 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Jason - Once again, LOVE the zones...this is very helpful. Looks like Reston is on the Eastern edge of Zone 3, correct? One other point, I follow a few other blogs, this one being my favorite...and I noticed another blog changed my zip code forecast from rain/snow to just snow, about an hour ago...it looks like maybe they're using the NAM? But I would think that would suggest less accumulation? Either that or they're just assume the Line is a tad east of our (your) forecast.

Posted by: parksndc | January 24, 2011 12:22 PM | Report abuse

I know you guys don't see ice as a major factor for this storm, but about what chance would you give that we see ice accumulations?

Posted by: Dylan0513 | January 24, 2011 12:25 PM | Report abuse

superseiyan - February is still a snowy month in DC, when looking at long term average. So don't give up hope just yet. Current pattern is frustrating to snow lovers, yes. We just need a weak to moderate Low Pressure to slowly track along the coast line while a high pressure system in New England were to provide a supply of cold air through the duration of the low pressure passing by DC's latitude. We shall see if we can align the ingredients perfectly for you next month... TBD!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 12:25 PM | Report abuse

Don't you think you should have drawn the zone boundaries with random curves and zig-zags just to make it look more scientific? Also, that way even more people would ask whether they are on the eastern border of zone 3 or the western border of zone 2 because -- you know -- the actual amount of snow that falls will be vastly different based on a pencil width boundary.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 24, 2011 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Mother Nature is such a drama queen this winter. The last month has been like a Lady Gaga show. A little flash, and then a dash to NYC and Boston.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 12:35 PM | Report abuse

I'm curious with this storm still up in the air, how much rain is Zone 2 supoposed to get, I see you guys indicaqted moderate to heavy rain, im assuming you meant rain and not snow...

I know it's too early for snowfall amount, but when will you guys have the snowfall amount in case the rain changeover to snow..

Wednesday morning commute will be fine? and last question the schools if it's regular on-time will the school district be impacted in the afternoon on Wednesday??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 24, 2011 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Michael_Nguyen, just go to school.

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | January 24, 2011 12:38 PM | Report abuse

So, in other words, check back tomorrow this time?

Thanks for the analysis. Again, like the zone forecasts.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 24, 2011 12:40 PM | Report abuse

AsymptoticUnlimited - Did you actually READ the comments? All of your questions are explained above.

Posted by: parksndc | January 24, 2011 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Dangit, this really is not the winter for snowlovers...even the AccuWeather guys are calling for a miss for D.C./Baltimore: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44817/upcoming-major-winter-storm-in-1.asp

Posted by: jdtdc | January 24, 2011 12:43 PM | Report abuse

AsymptoticUnlimited - Did you actually READ the comments? All of your questions are explained above.

Posted by: parksndc | January 24, 2011 12:42 PM | Report abuse

_____________________________________

@parksndc

Um, I only asked one question and it was mostly hypothetical with a medium-high confidence of ironic content.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 24, 2011 12:48 PM | Report abuse

just so i know what magic spells, chants, and potion ingredients to use, what has to happen to keep things as snow as much as possible? i.e. is there anything for snowlovers to root for?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 12:51 PM | Report abuse

You guys are guessing.
That's ok. It's an educated guess....you might be right!

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 24, 2011 12:54 PM | Report abuse

So apparently this could be our biggest snow fall of the season, according to accuwx.

"The big cities will get rain with snow on the tail end of the storm as the upper level pocket of cold air comes on through. DC and Baltimore may see their biggest snow of the season with this one."

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/44866/latest-snow-map-for-the-storm-this-week.asp

Was hoping this wasnt gonna be a plowable/saltable event but its looking like it will. Ive been reading all over the internet about the wed night snow and now accuwx is saying this could be our biggest snow event so far :/

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 12:55 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

keep in the mind that our biggest snow so far this year is generally 1" or 2". Call for our biggest snow of the year is not a forecast for a big storm

Posted by: mciaram1 | January 24, 2011 1:02 PM | Report abuse

This is more the DC we have known and loved over the years, being just on the wrong side of the rain/snow line!

Damascus 8"
DC 2"
National .5"

Posted by: frontieradjust | January 24, 2011 1:03 PM | Report abuse

Capital Weather gurus...could someone give me an idea about the Charlottesville area? I live in Crozet which sits at the base of the Blue Ridge. Thanks.

Posted by: crozet | January 24, 2011 1:03 PM | Report abuse

@AsymptoticUnlimited: I always enjoy a moderate dose of irony, especially it sails right through unnoticed...

Posted by: petworthlad | January 24, 2011 1:05 PM | Report abuse

"biggest snow event" isn't really saying much. Isn't our biggest so far only like 1.5 inches? It could be 3 inches of slushy snow and be our largest event and yet still easily removable on the roads.

Posted by: kallieh | January 24, 2011 1:05 PM | Report abuse

AsymptoticUnlimited - I apologize, I did not pick up on the tones. Also, I appreciate the medium-high confidence remark...you're clearly funny enough to be an awesome person.

Posted by: parksndc | January 24, 2011 1:06 PM | Report abuse

sorry, "especially WHEN it sails" (it's very hard to catch a mistake after hitting the SUBMIT button!)

Posted by: petworthlad | January 24, 2011 1:06 PM | Report abuse

Cwg,
How far east does the storm have to track inorder for us to get enough precip and snow for a sizable storm of 5-7inches (ie, 21miles, 75...).
Also, this is really upsetting for Moco because the southern part may get 1-4inches while more norther parts may get 4-10

Posted by: redskins-95 | January 24, 2011 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Hi CWG! I have an 8:30 flight out of DCA on Wednesday morning. Any idea what the impacts on travel may be?

Posted by: Islandernole | January 24, 2011 1:11 PM | Report abuse

is centreville on zone 3 or 2? lol sorry I cant really tell either way Im getting excited!

Posted by: teebyrd86 | January 24, 2011 1:13 PM | Report abuse

Interesting Euro...track is, uh, not too shabby. Still need that cold air source from somewhere.

Posted by: DullesARC | January 24, 2011 1:14 PM | Report abuse

AsymptoticUnlimited , good stuff! Dripping with sarcasm (surprised someone missed that), but very funny, nonetheless!

If no other CWGers have a good term for these kinds of super-specific forecast requests, I'm sticking with individucast

Posted by: kolya02 | January 24, 2011 1:16 PM | Report abuse

If we get an inch, say, of snow after a day of rain, does that stick to paved surfaces?

Posted by: mmurphy70 | January 24, 2011 1:16 PM | Report abuse

The 12Z european model is very wet but also shoves the 850 (5000ft) freezing line well west of the city before dropping when the upper low comes through. The track of the latter would argue for a period of wet snow on the back end of the storm. It's too early to try to guess amounts as the surface temps are marginal on the model through the run.

Posted by: wjunker | January 24, 2011 1:25 PM | Report abuse

kolya02 - Sarcasm, while sometimes dripping, isn't always the easiest thing to pick up on comment boards. Also, there have been some pretty...um...interesting comments lately.

Posted by: parksndc | January 24, 2011 1:27 PM | Report abuse

SnotAgain, sNotAgain!

Posted by: apeirond | January 24, 2011 1:32 PM | Report abuse

Just as long as it MISSES tomorrow evening's dance!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 24, 2011 1:40 PM | Report abuse

WHEN DO I NEED TO BUY MILK AND BREAD?

Posted by: apeirond | January 24, 2011 1:48 PM | Report abuse

My amateur forecast proved correct!

I based my forecast on the local wildlife.

Geese have been flying east all day, while deer in western Loudoun were grazing far later than usual into the morning stocking up on calories. Always a sign of impending snow around here if you pay attention.

Computers may be confused, but animals always seem to know :-)

Posted by: celt1 | January 24, 2011 1:49 PM | Report abuse

WHEN DO I NEED TO BUY MILK AND BREAD?

Posted by: apeirond | January 24, 2011 1:48 PM | Report abuse

____________________________________

Snow Novice! You clearly are forgetting the toilet paper.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 24, 2011 1:57 PM | Report abuse

@apeirond: On a regular basis so you and yours don't go clogging the grocery stores right before a storm :/

One of the prime reasons I keep such an eye on the weather is that with 2 growing girls in the house, I need to restock my fridge pretty regularly. Hate really needing milk, going to the grocery store and having to be surrounded by a gazillion people who listened to the doomsayers on the networks and are now loading up on enough groceries to last them till next December........

Posted by: concepcion611 | January 24, 2011 1:59 PM | Report abuse

Had some snow dust flurries out in Manassas this last hour. All done; sun out now.
Wondering if that will be the most snow I see this week.
To all those frustrated flake fans - hang on cuz February is coming.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 24, 2011 2:08 PM | Report abuse

kolya02,
"individucast" works very well.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 2:09 PM | Report abuse

Very funny stuff here.
So just checking...I am just west of the town of Leesburg in high elevation.
This is going to be interesting. So I imagine we can expect the "I" word around here. Not a good thing.

Posted by: moo1 | January 24, 2011 2:11 PM | Report abuse

@kolya02--if you really want to see early and imprudent "individucast" requests (or IMBY requests, as they call them) dealt with swiftly and brutally, you'd enjoy looking at the American WX site:
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/12-mid-atlantic/

I lurk there, but never post, fearing instant retribution.

Posted by: petworthlad | January 24, 2011 2:14 PM | Report abuse

No ice moo1, there's enough cold air aloft for snow. The question is whether there is enough cold air at the surface to keep it snow. You should get decent snow at elevation unless it goes too far east.

Posted by: eric654 | January 24, 2011 2:24 PM | Report abuse

What;s going on with TWC webite I see they giving us a 40% Cnace of Whatever falls from the sky....

What is the odd that this storms misses us??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 24, 2011 2:29 PM | Report abuse

My relatively uneducated guess on the models:

Tomorrow most all of them start to show that with no real cold source available, the rain/snow line shifts further west.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 24, 2011 2:34 PM | Report abuse

@Michael_Nguyen

Who is "us"?

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 24, 2011 2:34 PM | Report abuse

@Islandernole

At this point, doesn't look like flights would be significantly disrupted Wednesday morning- but close enough call to keep an eye on the forecast. Would not change flight plans based on the current forecast.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 2:36 PM | Report abuse

@ AsymptoticUnlimited

I just type Washington, Dc, I'm assuming the Metro Area, even if I type Fredrick/Baltimore/Gaithersburg/Leesburg is saying 40%.... Interesting...

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 24, 2011 2:39 PM | Report abuse

so this is a head-banger storm?

Posted by: pvogel88 | January 24, 2011 2:39 PM | Report abuse

@crozet

I'd put you all in Zone 3

@teebyrd86

Centreville is barely in zone 3 - bear in mind you're on the east side of the zone - perhaps more on the rain side. Close call.

@Dylan0513

Don't see a lot of potential for significant icing.

@redskins95

It's close. A 45-60 mile track farther east could mean significantly more white. It's not just the track but also how fast the storm intensifies ... if it's east and intensifies quickly, it can pull down more cold air.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 2:46 PM | Report abuse

I just find it hard to believe that this will an all rain event? Something is up! I'm thinking a very wet snow on WED morning & then more solid snow in the evening as the temp drops. I think cold air will slip in. This is wishcasting; I want snow! :)

Posted by: 882181 | January 24, 2011 2:49 PM | Report abuse

"Snow Novice! You clearly are forgetting the toilet paper."

LOL, well, theres no reason you cant stock up on that in advance. However, milk and bread are perishable, tho you could probably freeze some bread I suppose.

@concepcion611

I find this happening to me often, though I dont have a good reason, just that I go to the grocery store every 2-3 days. I suspect many shoppers are doing the same, since many stores are reasonably crowded without snow warnings. It doesnt take much to strain the system. I also find if you can go during the first hour or two of snow hitting its not that crowded, though last year the shelves were pretty bare by then.


Posted by: apeirond | January 24, 2011 2:50 PM | Report abuse

I see the NWS is forcasting a high of 46- maybe 50 degress in some area, well in Chvey Chase forecast 46 degress, I'm wondering how is the cold ai going to rush in and give us a mixed then changed over to rain then back to snow, well back to snow is understanding when cold air filters in... So, I'm assuming the cold air that is in place will leave by tomorrow....

Maybe the computer models thinks the cold air will stick around by Wednesday, we will see how much milder/warmer air comes in tomorrow..

Also maybe it's just me but don't sometime in the past whn a storm comes in town it gets warmer a day before then things goes down hill from there??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 24, 2011 3:04 PM | Report abuse

I think most people stock toilet paper on a regular basis. I hope so anyways.

But I digress.

I am holding on to that towel with a clenched fist.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 24, 2011 3:06 PM | Report abuse

@Michael! right! I always hear people say it's going to snow when it get's warm the day before. Most times people think it will not snow when it's too cold out. I wonder what's the theory behind that?

Posted by: 882181 | January 24, 2011 3:20 PM | Report abuse

@Michael_Nguyen, the afternoon before we had a heavy snowfall in Feb 1987, the high afternoon was in the low 50s and the forecasters were warning of a significant snowfall and we indeed had about 11 inches of gloppy snow that night.

As others are noting, it's the cold air aloft that is important, because once precip starts falling, temps near the surface can drop dramatically as the air cools down. However, there's no indication there will be enough cold air aloft in Zones 1-2 or Zone 3 East to support a sustained snowfall.

We've gotten a few inches of a snow after a late-in-the-day rain->snow changeover, but these are rare occurances. Will it happen this time? Only the SLCB ball knows....

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 3:25 PM | Report abuse

New 18z NAM coming in gives snow-meisers a shot of adrenaline. Still has a brief period of warmer low/mid-levels that might look more like sleet than snow that might cut into some accumulations though.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 3:40 PM | Report abuse

The 18Z nam has jumped to a very wet and snowy solution for the area with the sounding at 1PM wed supporting snow at DC and then warming slightly by 4PM but probably still supporting snow and or sleet but by 7PM Wed would definitely be all snow providing the model were correct. That's a big assumption as much as it's been varying from run to run. The one thing the NAM probably is signaling is that we'll end as a period of snow. Beyond that, it's wiser to see if this is a glitch or a solid move to a codler solution. For dreamers and others, the nam gives DC around .75" of liquid equivalent which would mostly be in the form of snow if the model were correct, a pretty big if.

Posted by: wjunker | January 24, 2011 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Way to 1-up me Wes...jk

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 3:45 PM | Report abuse

apeirond, re the mad pre-storm rush to the grocery store, you said,

"...I go to the grocery store every 2-3 days."

i suspect that's the case with lot of people - probably about 1/2 the households in the area. that means if a storm is predicted and people don't think they'll be able to go to the store for 2 days, that means that probably 1/2 the households in the area have a person at the stores...

jerry,
hahaha... there you go again... the feb 87 storm... excellent.

Brian, Wes,
!!!! oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy!!!!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 3:47 PM | Report abuse

Reading the NWS forecast discussion - the poor forecaster sounds like he wants to flip a coin. It's been a tough winter for those in the forecasting business.

Posted by: DMcG | January 24, 2011 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Wes or another CWG, what is the algorithim for determining how much wet snow will fall from say 1.0 precip. It seems to me you all discounted that old adage that 1 inch of precip = 10 inches of snow.

Walter, the winter of '86-87 was snow sweet. Three 10" snows in about one month, including the Super Bowl Sunday storm when the Giants beat the Broncos and a certain mayor went to the Super Bowl and said of the snow that was clogging D.C. strees: "God will take care of it."

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 3:56 PM | Report abuse

@Brian--does a "snow-meiser" want snow, or is s/he a miserly type who wants little snow? (Maybe s/he's a snow-meister too.)

Posted by: petworthlad | January 24, 2011 3:57 PM | Report abuse

DMcG - all DC forecasters are biting nails and pulling a little hair out with each of these winter storms which vary wildly from model run to model run (vary in the solution outputted by the model)

petworthlad - my interpretation is that meisers [miser] were those in DC who don't want much snow... and that the latest, colder model solution that creates the hypothetically greater snowfall for DC would give all snow dislikers a shot of adrenaline. They would be scared at seeing all the hypothetical snow :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 4:05 PM | Report abuse

Oh gosh... This is really getting exciting!!!!! The NAM looks fantastic! I live just a few miles N of IAD and I think it'll be 85% snow here, 20% sleet and 5% freezing rain. I can't wait. This storm is very exciting already!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 4:06 PM | Report abuse

ALL: Let's move the discussion over to the new post.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 4:12 PM | Report abuse

the p.m. update post is up... move along.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/pm_update_headed_warmer_at_lea.html

jerry,
i was in blacksburg in the mid 80s. i remember one extraordinarily snowy year. must have been 86/87. no way i could recount specific storms, though. i do remember going out at night w/tripod to take b&w snow pictures on film(!) which i would later develop(!) and print(!) myself... boy digital is so much nicer...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 4:12 PM | Report abuse

@petworthlad I like your IMBY term too - it relates nicely to the NIBMY folks out there who also want social goods at no personal cost. I hope all the IMBYers out there get the message and stop trying to hog our Capital Weather Gang!

Posted by: kolya02 | January 24, 2011 4:12 PM | Report abuse

Great. The rain/snow line pretty much runs through MoCo, which means that in Silver Spring we're likely to wind up with another a "snow day" that features nothing but wet pavement.
The school system needs to divide the county into north and south when they make these decisions!

Posted by: JCR7 | January 24, 2011 4:14 PM | Report abuse

Walter, c'mon now, you know that printing your own photos and watching them appear on the paper is one of the best things ever (and incredibly relaxing when you have unlimited paper and chemical resources in your college dark room) Developing, that's another story fraught with danger and possible destruction.

Posted by: kmill67 | January 24, 2011 4:23 PM | Report abuse

You guys cut Thurmont off your map. Life does exist north of Frederick, just kidding. We are in Zone 4 but it's nice to pull up the map and see north Frederick County. I assume we will be all snow here.
Thanks to all of you for your time and effort.

Posted by: Thurmont1 | January 24, 2011 4:29 PM | Report abuse

kmill67,
deveolping my own film and prints was a lot of fun. and it was very educational in terms of grasping concepts of exposure, tone, contrast, dodging/burning prints, pushing/pulling film and all that. i am so glad i had that experience and am a much better photographer as a result of it. i think "kids today" (what an old fart i sound like saying that) miss out on a lot by starting out digital with autofocus, auto exposure, cameras....

having said all that i would hate to have to go back to that after having "gone digital".

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 4:42 PM | Report abuse

Walter, definitely. I'm one of those kids today, though I learned how to operate an SLR camera in college. But, while I save up for the D-SLR of my dreams, my AE-1 that's older than I am will have to do.

Posted by: kmill67 | January 24, 2011 5:04 PM | Report abuse

is there a chance for some snow tonight.

Posted by: eck9 | January 24, 2011 6:05 PM | Report abuse

we can pray for snow

Posted by: eck9 | January 24, 2011 6:22 PM | Report abuse

we can pray for snow

Posted by: eck9 | January 24, 2011 6:23 PM | Report abuse

did i read that right? is the GS saying we get 1.5" LE or greater!!!!!???!?!?!?!

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 7:25 PM | Report abuse

kmill67,
i learned on a A-1. good to hear that you're a canon person.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 7:34 PM | Report abuse

@CWG, the real question is, what Weather APPS do you have on your phone!!?????? All of you. What do The CWG recommend and how about the bloggers?

Posted by: RJ16 | January 24, 2011 8:40 PM | Report abuse

CWG,
Update post soon? 00Z NAM and GFS agree on fast moving coastal system with 18Z WED to 06Z THU impact time in DC area. Cold air mass source retreating. But will local dynamic cooling (by rising vertical motion) from negative tilted upper trof turn it over to wet heavy snow? And when during the 12 hour impact time? Questions to ponder.

Posted by: ronbcust | January 24, 2011 11:17 PM | Report abuse

Give it up leftist fools, you've been dead wrong on every "storm" this winter. And these are the same clowns who lecture us on global warming?!

Posted by: wewintheylose1 | January 25, 2011 3:04 AM | Report abuse

intellicast.com folks.

Posted by: wewintheylose1 | January 25, 2011 3:09 AM | Report abuse

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