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Posted at 3:45 PM ET, 01/ 6/2011

PM Update: A few Friday morning flakes

By Jason Samenow

For the fourth consecutive day, afternoon highs climbed into the low 40s, exactly average for this time of year. But it's downhill from here as cold air from the northwest streams southeastward. We probably won't escape the 30s tomorrow and for many days thereafter. As the cold air dives south, some light snow may fall along the way.


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: Clouds gradually increase and there's a chance (40%) of snow showers after about 1 a.m., mainly north and northeast of the District. The best chance of anything measurable is from Baltimore and to the northeast although a few spots in the D.C. metro region could get a dusting. A few slick spots are possible with these snow showers, which could impact the early part of the a.m. commute. Lows range from 25-30.

Tomorrow (Friday): Some snow showers could linger through 10 a.m. or so (40% chance), after which partly sunny skies emerge. Afternoon highs reach the upper 30s, with winds from the west around 10 to 15 mph.

See David Streit's forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Australia flooding: The torrential rains over northeast Australia in Queensland the last several weeks have inundated a region larger than France and Germany combined, according to the BBC. NASA has captured some incredible pictures of the flooding from space, including 1) an image of the sediment flowing out of swollen rivers into the Pacific ocean adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef and 2) before and after images of the now flooded landscape.

By Jason Samenow  | January 6, 2011; 3:45 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Tuesday snow threat: On the edge again?
Next: Cold Chesapeake Bay waters likely behind fish kill

Comments

I am sooooooo ready for another blizzard! Last year was the most thrilling winter I can remember; storm after storm after storm! It didn't stop.

I live several miles NE of IAD and we measured 31.8" at our house; and the kids loved it too! I'm hoping to see a snowstorm of 40" in my lifetime, even though that probably won't happen. Maybe my family and I should move to a snowier place; like Syracuse or Buffalo!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 6, 2011 4:10 PM | Report abuse

What methods do forecasters use to differentiate snow amounts less than one inch? If an area is not showing .1 of precip on a model... do you just look at proximity to areas showing precip? Or are there higher resolution models available... or do you have access to data behind the models?

Posted by: spgass1 | January 6, 2011 4:18 PM | Report abuse

What methods do forecasters use to differentiate snow amounts less than one inch? If an area is not showing .1 of precip on a model... do you just look at proximity to areas showing precip? Or are there higher resolution models available... or do you have access to data behind the models?

Posted by: spgass1 | January 6, 2011 4:18 PM |
---------------------------------------
If it's below an inch, does it really make a difference?

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 6, 2011 4:30 PM | Report abuse

@spgass1

There are some higher resolution models that show some light snow pre-dawn tomorrow morning. Check out the HRW (high resolution WRF) options at: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 6, 2011 4:30 PM | Report abuse

AccuWeather says we are getting slammed next tuesday :/

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2011/400x266_01061630_southeastsnow.jpg

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44035/crosscountry-snowstorm-january.asp

Although if you read it all the map shows us slammed while the words actually say north and west of DC, yet its riding the coast?.... Just doesnt make much sense to me.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 6, 2011 4:42 PM | Report abuse

Don't listen to their garbage. When the models come into agreement we will know what is happening. As of now, no matter what those fools say, it's not looking good. But hey, the gfs is currently rolling out it's 18z. Let's see what happens.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 6, 2011 4:48 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

Thanks for the AccuWeather links, but I can't get the embedded Margusity video to play. Am I the only person for whom the AccuWeather videos stopped playing a couple days ago? I use Firefox 3.6.13 with several ad blocking tools (Adblock Plus, Ghostery, Beef Taco), but they were never a problem before...

Posted by: petworthlad | January 6, 2011 5:04 PM | Report abuse

@petworthlad

Not sure why the vids wont play for you. I use Safari and the vids work fine.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 6, 2011 5:09 PM | Report abuse

Latest 18Z GFS is trending further south and OTS, we've seen this too many times in the past month or so, even at this far out. Couple inches at best around DC metro, if any. Im not guessing that based on this or any other run, just the pattern that we have been in.

Im sure sat or sun the models will trend it waaay west like they did on the boxing day storm, then east the next run :/

The models are gonna play tricks with us all, but just keep the dec 26th storm in the back of your mind, or the couple OTS's that came before it.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 6, 2011 5:28 PM | Report abuse

Yeah I'm almost ready to throw in the towel. I really want to believe Margusity and the accuweather gang but I've seen them overblow things way too often. Their contradictions are just endless. The fact that he chooses to completely disregard the Euro on this one leaves me questioning his motives. Now that his precious gfs has gone way OTS I would love to hear his reasoning now. Literally none of the models are supporting his wolf cries.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 6, 2011 5:42 PM | Report abuse

The newest GFS loop shows a blob of dark green covering the DC metro area (including most of MD and VA) at some point next Tuesday, which if it holds up should be good for something but not what some here are hoping for and others are dreading (personally I'm not really in either camp.)

Further out, it shows potential for some quite heavy precipitation around the 16th and 19th (separate potential storms), but we probably might as well be talking about January 2012 that far out.

Posted by: mkarns | January 6, 2011 6:26 PM | Report abuse

??? to get this page to come up??? for years, i have typed in capital weather gang on google, to get this page. now i do what i have always done, but the first hit is video and a bunch of stuff i dont care about. i now have a hard time finding this page. here is what i get now when i click on CWG http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=0h&oq=ca&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4DKUS_enUS228US228&q=capital+weather+gang anybody other than me getting frustrated ???? is it my setting????

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | January 6, 2011 6:31 PM | Report abuse

AccuWeather says we are getting slammed next tuesday :/

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2011/400x266_01061630_southeastsnow.jpg

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44035/crosscountry-snowstorm-january.asp

Although if you read it all the map shows us slammed while the words actually say north and west of DC, yet its riding the coast?.... Just doesnt make much sense to me.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 6, 2011 4:42 PM |
--------------------------------------------
This is a perfect example of how the folks at AccuWeather get waaaaay too hyped up about things. The very idea they would tell us we're gonna get slammed is ridiculous. Whoever wrote that article should be fired.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 6, 2011 6:54 PM | Report abuse

deveinmadisonva,

Simple solution: Bookmark the link to CWG that way you don't have to pull it up via Google.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 6, 2011 6:58 PM | Report abuse

@deveinmadisonva

I see what you mean. That's annoying. I'm going to see if there's anything we can do about it. But you can always just type any of the following easy to remember URLs to get to us: capitalweather.com, capitalweathergang.com, washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 6, 2011 7:15 PM | Report abuse

Berk, Bastardi, and Margusity are all bullish and confident about next weeks storm. Bastardi says this is a different animal than the Christmas storm that missed us do to the NAO which is turning positive. Preliminary #s from Bastardi and Margusity are 4-8, but they both think 12+ could definitely happen. Haven't seen any potential totals out of Berk yet, but he seems confident in the storm...and well as some snow on Saturday in addition to tonight. At least the cold weather is in place and there are "chances". Keeps things interesting.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 6, 2011 7:39 PM | Report abuse

Yeah Bastardi just tweeted he thinks NYC's 1-3 inches from tonights clipper is ALOT less than what NYC will get next tuesday.

Im really hoping he has to eat those words, unless he's talking about the secret NYC out in the Sea!?!

Seriously though, Accuweather is really sold on next weeks storm. With certainty.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 6, 2011 8:16 PM | Report abuse

cwg- i highly respect your analysis here but never know what to expect in DC until snow is actually falling. What is with the hesitation and last second forecasts for the area.

Posted by: ajmupitt | January 6, 2011 8:37 PM | Report abuse

ajmupitt,

Having grown up here, it seems a tough area to forecast. We're not really not north or south. (I think I may be paraphrasing a CWG response from earlier.)

Also - did you go to JMU? I got my undergrad there. What year did you graduate?

Posted by: MKoehl | January 6, 2011 8:57 PM | Report abuse

Suprisingly I am actually from the district but went to school at the Univ of Pittsburgh. It is an extremely tough area to forecast and I think cwg does a great job. I just wish they would give us some more instinct mixed in with their great analysis.

Posted by: ajmupitt | January 6, 2011 9:26 PM | Report abuse

I hope it snows tonight.
*posts the longing snowlover who sees pitiful flickerings on the radar*

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 6, 2011 9:40 PM | Report abuse

@ajmupitt

Thanks for the feedback. I think you can pretty easily read between the lines in our post from earlier what our initial instinct is. The seasonal trend is not our friend. But it would be silly to totally throw in the towel since every storm is different and really small changes in the system's evolution could have big implications.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 6, 2011 9:55 PM | Report abuse

The models still aren't in agreement:

For example, check out this one - - it gives us about 5 - 8 inches, with 7 - 10 S & E of DC:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p36_150s.gif

But then this one gives us just about nothing:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_150s.gif

Frankly, I don't know why some people say they're "throwing in the towel" with this one. We all know things can change drastically between now and then.

Personally, I hope the 5 - 10 inch event plays out. Hopefully by tomorrow the models will come into agreement. Who knows, maybe it'll be another "wait and see" event.

I do, however, have a feeling that the storm passing south of us scenario will play out since that is the trend this winter.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 6, 2011 10:05 PM | Report abuse

Here's what some of the local meteorologists are saying about the storm next week:

Bob Ryan: "Right now the threat of a more serious coastal storm next Tuesday is low with the most likely track of any storm staying to our south and out to sea."

Topper Shutt: "In the long range, we are tracking the possibility of a larger storm by next Tuesday, Jan. 11."

Doug Kammerer: "The next storm is the one to watch for snowfall. Right now, it is not looking like a major storm, but I do think it could be significant with a few inches in our area. This storm has the potential to be a bigger storm so we will be watching it for you  right here at NBC4."

Looks like Doug and Topper are favoring more snowfall than Bob Ryan (no surprise there.)

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 6, 2011 10:40 PM | Report abuse

Not surprisingly, GFS brings the storm back close enough to the coast to give DC a moderate snow in its latest run for Tuesday. Phases the two disturbances just in time.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 6, 2011 11:19 PM | Report abuse

Expect to see some more twists and turns with this forecast.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 6, 2011 11:24 PM | Report abuse

I just realized that I mis-stated Camden's name in a comment I made a couple of threads ago (I mistakenly said Cameron). Sorry Camden! :-)

Posted by: natsncats | January 6, 2011 11:55 PM | Report abuse

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