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Posted at 3:55 PM ET, 01/20/2011

PM Update: Awaiting tonight's light snow

By Jason Samenow

Light accumulations, probably some rain to start

* Storm impacts, and accumulation forecasts by zone *

While a step down from yesterday's low 50s, today's high temperatures of 40 to 45 were manageable and about average for this time of year. Tonight's weather system ushers in colder air that hangs around through early next week. It also brings our much-discussed period of snow or mixed rain and snow, enough for some light accumulations especially north of the District.

Through Tonight: Precipitation likely breaks out between 8 and 11 p.m. from west to east. Temperatures are probably above freezing when the precipitation starts, resulting in rain in spots (especially from I-95 and to the east and south). As the precipitation increases in coverage and intensity, any rain should change to snow and temperatures should cool allowing for some accumulation. The snow may fall moderately for a time and cover roads (especially north and northeast), but fortunately while few are traveling. Snow ends between 3 and 5 a.m. from west to east.

Up to 0.5" of snow is possible in the immediate metro area with 1" or so in the northern suburbs. As you reach the southern suburbs, temperatures may be high enough and precipitation so light, that there's little to no accumulation. Lows range from the upper 20s in the colder north and west suburbs to the low 30s around town and southeast.

Tomorrow (Friday): The sun emerges but watch out for slick spots from the overnight precipitation during your morning commute. It's blustery and cold, with steady temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s. Winds are from the northwest at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 creating wind chills in the teens.

See David Streit's forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Snow early next week? Computer models are starting to advertise the potential for snow or snow changing to rain in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe next week. Wes Junker, our winter weather expert, will provide an analysis of the storm potential tomorrow.

By Jason Samenow  | January 20, 2011; 3:55 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Snow struggling to develop & may not

Comments

NBC 4 just showed us in rain ending as a bit of snow tomorrow morning but show us with no accumulation except up north.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 20, 2011 4:31 PM | Report abuse

Just saw Bob Ryan latest tweet with this map below. He's not even expecting a dusting for us just light snow and mix. That makes 2 local tv mets that arent forecasting even a dusting.

http://twitpic.com/3rtdms

Posted by: KRUZ | January 20, 2011 4:41 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ - I would suspect that is a reflection of what we have now at the surface.. very warm temperatures. I think NBC 4 is reacting to that in their own way.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 20, 2011 4:48 PM | Report abuse

and is Bob Ryan's forecast any different that what has been said here?

Posted by: inthemiddle2 | January 20, 2011 4:49 PM | Report abuse

I wish it would either not snow or have the sky fall in rather than have all these piddling little storms one right after the other. All they do is foul traffic and delay school days.

Posted by: kevinwparker | January 20, 2011 5:04 PM | Report abuse

Lol, this is crazy. Don't think we need anymore analysis. Every storm has been 1-3 or 1 or 1-2 then 5 minutes before the storm it's changes to nothing. Just glad you guys don't hype the storms. As far as I'm concerned, accuweather guys are a bunch of freaking idiots.

Posted by: dannythe357 | January 20, 2011 5:08 PM | Report abuse

Bob Ryan (ABC) and Doug Kammerer's (NBC4) forecasts aren't substantively different from our own. We're calling for a trace (i.e. some snow but no accumulation) to 0.5" for the metro region and we've indicated some rain on the front end. Kammerer and Ryan may not be allowing for the fact a little accumulation could occur; we think there might be a bit as cold air comes in late tonight. We're kind of splitting hairs here.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 20, 2011 5:16 PM | Report abuse

This definetly go 2 b anothe rnone event. Next weeks storm already looks pretty much like a nonsnow event. Might b the usual snow to rain occurrence. It's really getting very dry & we need, preferable, a big couple of big snows or at least rain to get the water table up.
Go Hokies, beat the Terps.
Go Steelers.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 20, 2011 5:30 PM | Report abuse

it feels colder outside than the advertised (on my thermometer) 41 degrees. i know high humidity makes warm weather feel warmer. what does it do for cold weather?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 20, 2011 5:38 PM | Report abuse

42F at DCA right now, with a southerly wind? Hopefully it won't freeze at all!

Posted by: bastings | January 20, 2011 5:41 PM | Report abuse

A little rain; a little wet snow; it's moisture & we need it.
Maybe there will be a brief period of moderate snowfall so I can go outside & get a taste of that flake magic.
I'm glad I was able to be outdoors for a bit this afternoon because that forecast is freaking COLD.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 20, 2011 5:45 PM | Report abuse

@VaTechBob

yeah ive been reading alot of the bloggers saying air will be too dry over us for tuesdays storm to make it up to us. Its either gonna be a huge storm or nothing worth mentioning (like today). Hope it goes far south and straight OTS!!!!

Posted by: KRUZ | January 20, 2011 5:46 PM | Report abuse

The warmth will fade quickly. The air temperature is 39 right now, but the dew point is around 23. The general rule of thumb is to average these two and then add 2 to get the air temperature when the air is saturated. (Air becomes saturated when moisture falls to the surface from the clouds). So, 39 will become 33 after the precip starts falling to the surface. I can easily see temperatures dropping to around 30 with night time cooling added in. Although the precip will start as rain, it will quickly change to snow. My guess is still around an inch or two of snow for the immediate suburbs. With more like a dusting to an inch in DC.

Posted by: rapotter | January 20, 2011 5:47 PM | Report abuse

The artic boundary will come through tonight and DC could get up to an inch. Up here in Carroll County, I think we can still can 3 inches or so out of this one. As for the Tuesday/Wednesday storm next week...one problem won't be rain. This artic air mass is for real. Will be very cold around here for the next two weeks...extended forecasts have been updated to reflect that; especially north and west of DC. Models are showing a storm and GFS will likely correct west again...time will tell. For tonight, let's enjoy the virga...umm I mean snow.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 20, 2011 5:59 PM | Report abuse

Pretty much all the local mets (Fox,NBC,ABC) DC have called for zero accumulations for us. Except for CBS 9's Topper Shutt, who still thinks we could get up to 1 inch. As does NWS and TWC.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 20, 2011 6:28 PM | Report abuse

Right now Tue. is looking like a nonevent, hopefully things will change over the next 5 days.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 20, 2011 6:36 PM | Report abuse

Agreed VATechBob... Hopefully it changes into a definite NON EVENT for us over the next 5 days! Say NO to sNOw!

Posted by: KRUZ | January 20, 2011 6:39 PM | Report abuse

the new map last time showed my area here in madison va, i thought?? is there a way to get a larger overall look at the map, say like 75 mile radius of wash dc.

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | January 20, 2011 6:42 PM | Report abuse

WeatherMadness Henry Margusity
Euro has one heck of storm next week. It has 6-12 inches of snow over a large area including our friends in the DCA and BWI areas.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 20, 2011 6:49 PM | Report abuse

WeatherMadness Henry Margusity
Euro has one heck of storm next week. It has 6-12 inches of snow over a large area including our friends in the DCA and BWI areas.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 20, 2011 6:49 PM | Report abuse

WeatherMadness Henry Margusity is on my last nerve.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 20, 2011 7:11 PM | Report abuse

HM from accuwx is always callin for a big event for his friends down here :/ I call BS until at least sunday nite.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 20, 2011 7:16 PM | Report abuse

Non-snow lovers leave why are you here? Seemingly just to antagonize those of us who would love to see a storm.

@Think Spring....I like spring too but will be rooting for it to rain all over you this spring. Word is it will be unseasonably cold this spring as well.

Kruz, if it doesnt snow you will never get any overtime...Never heard a guy actively root for no overtime work especially in this economy. I think Kruz secretly wants snow but is putting on a heck of a show pretending he doesnt.

@ Bob Miller2 what is the temperature on your deck? Havent heard in a while...

@CWG Gang great job this year and last. Cant believe there are actually people complaining about this blog at times. Especially those who get upset when you are only 98% correct on calls!!

In my eyes you have been 100% this year. Its great to see into the minds of a weatherman!!

Posted by: inthemiddle2 | January 20, 2011 7:38 PM | Report abuse

LOL...Best post of the day "@Think Spring....I like spring too but will be rooting for it to rain all over you this spring. Word is it will be unseasonably cold this spring as well."

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 20, 2011 7:55 PM | Report abuse

CAD/WEDGE SITUATION PSBL MON/TUE...WITH OVERRUNNING M/HLVL MOISTURE
FROM DEEPENING UPR TROF ACRS OH/TN VLY. SFC LOPRES BRINGS POPS INTO
RGN MON NGT-TUE NGT. SPECIFICS ON TIMING/INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIP
VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM...AS GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN EVOLUTION OF NRN/SRN
JET BRANCHES/INTERACTION. ECMWF PORTRAYS MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE UPR
TROF AND THEREFORE BETTER PHASING/STRONGER COASTAL LOW. PTYPE WILL
ALSO BE A CHALLENGE...AS WARM AIR WILL BE OVERRIDING COLD SURFACE
AIR. BY WED...SYSTEM PUSHES N/E OF AREA...WITH HIPRES BUILDING INTO
THE RGN.

So it looks like that mon/tues may not be all snow -- at least accdng to NWS.

Posted by: moo1 | January 20, 2011 7:55 PM | Report abuse

I'm not saying it's going to snow Tuesday, but VaTechBob simply is regarding facts, and the facts say that models are showing potential for a storm. I am irascible in the face of illogical, dogmatic statements that have no ground.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 20, 2011 7:58 PM | Report abuse

Historical note: In 1933 the States ratified the 20th amendment which moved the presidential inauguration from March to January 20.

Leave it to Congress to pick the average coldest day of the year for an outdoor event!

Posted by: ASColletti | January 20, 2011 8:09 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: PoorTeacher | January 20, 2011 8:24 PM | Report abuse

is this the big event for tuesday i'm starting to hear about?

from the GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p24_126m.gif

that's 1"-2.5" right? whoop-de-do! i guess if that verifies towards the upper end, it could blow that huge dec 16 1.5" snownanza out of the water! so, i guess that's something to be happy about...given the dearth of snow this year.

**how do you get qpf values from the euro? i can only see pressures and temperatures.**

**does high humidity make cold temperatures "feel" colder or warmer?**

DLO1975,
is that the euro or henry margusity who's calling for 6-12"?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 20, 2011 8:52 PM | Report abuse

Yes. Margusity is citing the Euro which has about an inch liquid, or about 10 inches of snow. Many days of models to go.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 20, 2011 9:05 PM | Report abuse

Yes. Margusity is citing the Euro which has about an inch liquid, or about 10 inches of snow. Many days of models to go.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 20, 2011 9:06 PM | Report abuse

Nothing yet here in Frederick. How's it looking for everyone else?

Posted by: eabgarnet | January 20, 2011 9:21 PM | Report abuse

nothing in Manassas

Posted by: dannythe357 | January 20, 2011 9:27 PM | Report abuse

Nothing yet here in Frederick. How's it looking for everyone else?

Posted by: eabgarnet | January 20, 2011 9:21 PM | Report abuse
________________________
Hi - I'm here in central HoCo and it's dark as the sun has gone down for the day. I have my house heater on as it's a bit chilly without it. Just finished a nice dinner with salad, ham steak, and home-made mac and cheese. Have a caffeine-free Pepsi so it doesn't disturb my sleeping pattern in an hour or two. Watching Cops on the tele. Goota go - more Cops coming up next!!

Posted by: rpcv84 | January 20, 2011 9:29 PM | Report abuse

Sadly, as will probably be the case all night, nothing is falling in Ft Washington, MD......sigh

Posted by: ftwash | January 20, 2011 9:38 PM | Report abuse

I think I asked this question last year, but no one addressed it. So it seems that this is a typical weather year...many chances, but all of them disappear as the "real" weather closes in. It seems the models show potential snow in the long term, but as we near the event, predicted amounts diminish and diminish and then the dreaded dry slot hits, of course, usually over Manassas. Why is it that it never happens the opposite way? Why don't the models EVER show nothing, nothing, nothing and then SURPRISE!!!! There's a bunch of snow right here, right now? What's up with that?

Posted by: manassasmissy | January 20, 2011 9:47 PM | Report abuse

Nothing in Silver Spring. I'll believe a 10 inch storm when I see it.

Posted by: HappyArmyWife | January 20, 2011 9:48 PM | Report abuse

I'll believe a 1 inch storm when I see it.

Posted by: marathoner | January 20, 2011 9:54 PM | Report abuse

temps here in hyattsvile, md have increased over the past our going from 36.2 to now 37 degrees.

really hoping none of this sticks to the roads.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 20, 2011 9:56 PM | Report abuse

I miss those northcentral Pennsylvania winters of my youth (30 or so years ago!) when numerous 12"+ snowfalls were the norm rather than the exception. I realize that the climate in these parts has never been real conducive to that kind of weather, but still - I miss it.

Posted by: ToBeBlunt | January 20, 2011 10:07 PM | Report abuse

@ inthemiddle2

The current reading on my deck is 37.6°F.

Let's all hope the Euro verifies for next week!

BTW, I predict we'll see a trace or less here in NE Loudoun.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 20, 2011 10:08 PM | Report abuse

Perhaps we won't see a flake tonight?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | January 20, 2011 10:12 PM | Report abuse

Nothing in NW Columbia

Posted by: Kellygirl75 | January 20, 2011 10:21 PM | Report abuse

Had to listen to my family in St. Louis tell me about the 10 inches of snow they shoveled today. Sigh.

At this point, I would be content with one snowfall of 4 inches or so this winter. That's not too much to ask.

Posted by: maymay1 | January 20, 2011 10:22 PM | Report abuse

Capital Weather Gang guys,
Do any of you have (or know where to find) images of the model predictions before the big storms last year?

Thanks!

Posted by: gewaldron | January 20, 2011 10:27 PM | Report abuse

just courious?

Can anyone tell me the perfect set up to get a good storm up here? Does the snow come up from the Carolinas and keep a western route? Or do big snows come from lows hugging the coast BUT are further inland and hang on longer before moving north unlike this year. is there anywhere i can look at radar or models of what Snowmaggedon looked like when it hit?
Thanks CWG

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 20, 2011 10:29 PM | Report abuse

GEWALDRON

I wasn looking for the same thing. I would like to see the tracks of last years 3 big storms and see how they shaped up before they hit as well.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 20, 2011 10:32 PM | Report abuse

mannasasmissy.

I always was wondering the same thing/ i would LOVE to see the snow prediction be really low. Then WHAM!!! the storm slows down and gets stronger and we get walloped right in the last 12 hours of the forecast.it seems thta almost NEVER happens. I guess that would look bad on forecasters though if they didnt catch it in time.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 20, 2011 10:37 PM | Report abuse

There's a new post upstairs.

Posted by: natsncats | January 20, 2011 11:08 PM | Report abuse

New post is up here

@PoorTeacher

Possible you don't see a flake, but I think at least some flurries are a decent bet after midnight. Still, you'll probably awaken to bare ground.

@gewaldron

Email us at weathergang@wpni.com with your request for models from last year's storms. We can send you some stuff and/or links.

@BradFinWoodbridgeVA

If you search our archives, you can find some posts where we talk about snowstorm ingredients around here. If you can't find them, email us (see above).

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 20, 2011 11:08 PM | Report abuse

Takoma Park, DC - 3:35am - nada / nothing / not a flake.

Posted by: wrytous | January 21, 2011 3:38 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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