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Posted at 3:30 PM ET, 01/24/2011

PM Update: Headed warmer, at least briefly

By Ian Livingston

Partly sunny skies today allowed temperatures to rise to the upper 20s and lower 30s across the region. If National Airport finishes 32 or below today (and it seems it should), this will be the first 3-day stretch of freezing temperatures since January 15-17, 2009. Back then, lows dropped all the way to 8 at National compared to 17 during this stretch. So, not quite as cold but still notably cold! Tonight we stay mild compared to recent nights, and then tomorrow we have almost a mini heat wave to look foreword to.

Through Tonight: A good deal of clouds and increasingly stale cold air help keep temperatures up compared to recent nights that featured the coldest air of the season to date. Lows reach the lower 20s in the coldest of spots to the mid-and-upper 20s in the warmest. A light south wind is not much issue.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Outside partly to mostly cloudy skies, this looks like a nice break from what we've gone through lately. A light south wind continues to usher in warmer readings with afternoon highs heading for the mid-and-upper 40s.

What's the deal with the upcoming storm? See Jason Samenow's forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

What others say: You've seen our latest thoughts on the upcoming storm, so let's take a quick look elsewhere. AccuWeather's Alex Sosnowski says the odds favor heavier snow just to our northwest. The Weather Channel's Jonathan Erdman lays out the scenarios. Closer to home, The Baltimore Sun's Frank Roylance looks at the NWS forecast leaning rain along I-95.

By Ian Livingston  | January 24, 2011; 3:30 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Near rain-snow line for significant Wed. storm
Next: Live blogging the models for Wed storm

Comments

from the previous thread:

The 18Z nam has jumped to a very wet and snowy solution for the area with the sounding at 1PM wed supporting snow at DC and then warming slightly by 4PM but probably still supporting snow and or sleet but by 7PM Wed would definitely be all snow providing the model were correct. That's a big assumption as much as it's been varying from run to run. The one thing the NAM probably is signaling is that we'll end as a period of snow. Beyond that, it's wiser to see if this is a glitch or a solid move to a codler solution. For dreamers and others, the nam gives DC around .75" of liquid equivalent which would mostly be in the form of snow if the model were correct, a pretty big if.

Posted by: wjunker | January 24, 2011 3:42 PM
------------------------

!!!!! oh boy oh boy oh by oh boy !!!!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 3:56 PM | Report abuse

"If National Airport finishes 32 or below today (and it seems it should), this will be the first 3-day stretch of freezing temperatures since January 15-17, 2009"

Really?!? All that cold last month but no 3 days in a row at National? Weird.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 24, 2011 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Didnt the NAM have us in some pretty good precip this past thrusday night into friday?... 1 mile east of DC we received zero flakes.

NAM = Trash.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 4:05 PM | Report abuse

Walter,

I was thinking the EXACT same thing! hahaha btw, the other good news for you is that this will be wet snow...perfect for SCULPTING! ;)

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 4:09 PM | Report abuse

This one is gonna be the most tricky storm so far this year IMHO..10-15 miles could make a big difference on what everyone see in there yard.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 24, 2011 4:15 PM | Report abuse

The NAM likes to jump around a lot. I'd wait for some support. I do like how things have evolved overall but we've got a bit to go in the city as a snow lover.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 4:22 PM | Report abuse

from the other thread ;) ....

@petworthlad I like your IMBY term too - it relates nicely to the NIBMY folks out there who also want social goods at no personal cost. I hope all the IMBYers out there get the message and stop trying to hog our Capital Weather Gang!

Posted by: kolya02 | January 24, 2011 4:23 PM | Report abuse

Come on NAM... Hoping for that 7.5 inches!!
*Silently praying that other models follow the NAM's path.

Posted by: cubscapsfan | January 24, 2011 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Just an FYI

Here is Doug Kammerer's prediction from his facebook page:

"Ok, here we go! The models are all over the place with this storm. Here are my thoughts! We are going to be close to 45° tomorrow so we are going to have to cool WAY down to see any snow around DC on Wednesday, which I do not see happening. I think this is going to be mostly rain from DC south and east. I do think we will see a rain/snow mix changing to snow north and West."

He also added this in the comments:

"I also think that there will be some snow on the backside of this system for just about everyone, but it should not amount to much. I do think there could be some accumulation toward Loudoun County and toward Frederick county as well and it may be more snow there. "

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 4:30 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 4:31 PM | Report abuse

WTOP wont make a good call..i dont blame them on this one..basically they have said rain/snow possible for the last 24 hours..lol

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 24, 2011 4:32 PM | Report abuse

Wes Junker..6-10 WOW!!!!!!!!!!11 where did that come from????

YAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 24, 2011 4:35 PM | Report abuse

45 tomorrow? The stinkbugs must be jumping for joy, kinda' the way we (at least many of us) are psyched up re: possible snow.

Walter, 1987 was one of the mother of all snow years around here (at least since I came to DC) because it also included the Vet's Day storm. One of the few years when total snowfall exceeded 40".

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 4:38 PM | Report abuse

@Brian

Still, it would triple our highest snowfall of the winter so far

@SNOWLUVER

Wes did not say that. Don't make things up.

Posted by: cubscapsfan | January 24, 2011 4:40 PM | Report abuse

BradFin, it came from nowhere, it's a misquote.

Snowluver, knock it off.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 4:40 PM | Report abuse

5.5" of heavy wet shnow would be shaaaahweeet.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 4:49 PM | Report abuse

Brian

So thats not the real wes?? Hmmmm I KINDA figured that but didnt want to say it..lol

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 24, 2011 4:50 PM | Report abuse

someone is using my name and it's not me. I've not given an accumulation. If it continues, you'll be banned.

Posted by: wjunker | January 24, 2011 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Come on, SNOWLUVER, don't try to fool us... Wes never said that. Impersonating someone is a violation of the commenting rules on this website.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Some ppl realllllly love snow! They actually go to the extreme of wishcasting with someone elses name LOL. Wow, thats really sad.

Still not going to happen but at least we can all head outside wednesday and go singing in the rain ;) And watch the wet snowflakes melt on the rain soaked roads!

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 4:55 PM | Report abuse

Please don't make us monitor the comment boards more than we already do... It isn't like we want to be The Enforcers, but we the CWG team will keep a close eye on things now. Please take heed. Be considerate. Follow the rules when commenting.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 4:57 PM | Report abuse

The comment has been removed.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Does anyone know when the 18Z GFS comes out? Is it like any minute now?

Posted by: jms12 | January 24, 2011 4:59 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ - I want to hone-in on something astute you are mentioning... The ground will likely be warm much of the time on Wednesday. Not sure how much would melt, but there may indeed be moderate melting on surfaces. Strictly reporting (not interpreting) GFS & NAM output high temperatures at DCA on Wednesday as 39F & 41F, respectively.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 5:01 PM | Report abuse

Kruz is bizarro bobmiller2. CWG when will we have a better idea about this storm?

Posted by: jbernard703 | January 24, 2011 5:03 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 5:05 PM | Report abuse

jms12 - 18z GFS is out right now. Processed through Day 3.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 5:05 PM | Report abuse

MAN!! IM A SUPREME SNOW LOVER,,but it never crossed my mind to impersinate a forecaster..dang..somebody is ate up worse than me!!!

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 24, 2011 5:06 PM | Report abuse

MAN!! IM A SUPREME SNOW LOVER,,but it never crossed my mind to impersinate a forecaster..dang..somebody is ate up worse than me!!!

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 24, 2011 5:06 PM | Report abuse

The new GFS looks pretty nice to me if we want better hopes for snow. Today seems like things are tuning out the front end a bit and really keying in on the upper low passage. Detailing where that best axis of precip ends up is still difficult but we've been seeing pretty fine tracks at 500 mb for some time now, so it's hard to think that after all that continuity we're staring down a huge shift there coming up.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 5:07 PM | Report abuse

18z GFS shows rain to snow with about 1" qpf total for DC, most of which is snow Wednesday night. That would probably be about 10" of snow.

Posted by: Dylan0513 | January 24, 2011 5:08 PM | Report abuse

OH MY GOSH THE 18z GFS LOOKS FANTASTIC!!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p48_054m.gif

Also, CWG, I would like to take a moment to thank you greatly for all the hard work you put into storms like this. thank you!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 5:08 PM | Report abuse

i AGREE..IN ALL SINCERITY..CWG has been the most spot on these last few weeks...why do u think i get soooo bummmed when you guys say there wont be snow..cause your correct..

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 24, 2011 5:11 PM | Report abuse

Interesting, thanks a lot guys!. I noticed that the NWS issued a hazardous outlook for the Philly metro area that is pretty bullish for snow -- you can find it here:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ018&warncounty=NJC007&firewxzone=NJZ018&local_place1=Voorhees+NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook


NWS hasn't issued anything yet for DC, but I wonder if they will soon...

Posted by: jms12 | January 24, 2011 5:13 PM | Report abuse

So are the NAM and GFS trending towards snow now and how significant is it that the two are in agreement this close to the storm?

Posted by: jbernard703 | January 24, 2011 5:13 PM | Report abuse

CWG looking at the latest GFS what are we talking about for inches within the DC metro, as of this run?

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 5:14 PM | Report abuse

hey Camden...I'm a little confused. If the GFS/NAM both predict about 40 for a high Wednesday, how would it not be mostly rain? And if it were snow, wouldn't it then be a wet snow that generally wouldn't stick?

Posted by: BH99 | January 24, 2011 5:14 PM | Report abuse

jbernard703, I would say there is almost excellent agreement that we will be near or close to an ideal climatological track. The question remains temperatures. Today's signs and the evolution of the storm seem encouraging if you're a snow lover.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 5:16 PM | Report abuse

bob,
looks to my unprofessional eye like the whereas the NAM stayed juuuust barely cold enough the whole time, the GFS is warm for the first part of the storm and cold (enough for snow) for the last part.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 5:19 PM | Report abuse

@kruz...

You are certainly all rain on the east side of town...snow is for the west side folks who love it.

Posted by: inthemiddle2 | January 24, 2011 5:24 PM | Report abuse

GFS trends colder yet again for this weeks storm. Rain/Snow now into Virginia. I think the high His helping reinforce cold temps and models are catching on to this as well as a benchmark storm track.

Posted by: StormChaserMan | January 24, 2011 5:24 PM | Report abuse

So if the GFS and NAM are now showing us in snow, why did every local met (4,5,7,9) show us getting no accumulations and mainly rain DC and east?....

All the "futurecast" models they showed showed nothing massive for snow like the gfs and nam did.

Whats the Euro's take on all this potential snow at this point?

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 5:26 PM | Report abuse

The 18Z gfs 500mb and surface track would certainly argue for snow. The sounding at 1PM Wed is rain but by 7PM the sounding supports snow. The Sref ensemble members suggest the changeover would be around midway between those two times. Still too early to guess and accumulations as surface temps will still probably be above freezing even as snow falls. As Ian has noted, today's evolution of the storm is encouraging for snow lovers but....the vertical temperature profiles are so clsoe to freezing during the event that much still could go wrong.

Posted by: wjunker | January 24, 2011 5:26 PM | Report abuse

Hate to be a wet blanket, but the OCMs are still going with a rain scenario, maybe changing over to flakes late at night.

Hope they're wrong, tho.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 5:30 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: APU2100 | January 24, 2011 5:31 PM | Report abuse

Interesting piece published a short time ago in the NY Times about how a "weak Arctic fence" caused the cold during the last two winters.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/science/earth/25cold.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

I wish somebody would kick down the snow fence that has encircled DC this winter.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 5:35 PM | Report abuse

Re: 5:35 p.m comment, Complete NY Times link is
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/science/earth/25cold.html?_r=1&hp

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 5:38 PM | Report abuse

Tuesday - "highs heading for the mid-and-upper 40s" -- that would be over 15 to 20 degrees warmer than today - even downtown... we'll see, but looking to the south, I think that's a stretch.

Posted by: manatt | January 24, 2011 5:39 PM | Report abuse

"I would say there is almost excellent agreement that we will be near or close to an ideal climatological track. The question remains temperatures."

Somewhat ironic, that. Days and days of subfreezing temperatures, the elements seem to come together to produce substantial snow, and guess which day it suddenly goes to 50 degrees?

This seems more confusing than most recent storms (or would-be storms), and that's saying a lot. Adding to the confusion is that my not very long commute (20 minutes of driving at normal speed, though I prefer public transit) takes me in between the zones on the CWG map, with work in zone 2 and home at least a few miles over the line in zone 3.

I was wondering if the predictions in the Crystal Ball were some sort of average for the whole area. For the likelihood of accumulating snow seems close to zero for most of zone 1, but far above 50% for 4.

Posted by: mkarns | January 24, 2011 5:40 PM | Report abuse

@bobmiller2, that chart looks amazing! Let's all do our snow dances tonight that the surface temps stay cold enough to maintain snow. I gotta say though, I'm having flashbacks to the December Christmas storm where things were going back and forth so much that when the models went into agreement, everyone hopped on the snow train around here and it turned out DC didn't even get a dusting. Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope the winter trends don't hold true in this case!

Posted by: dcg35 | January 24, 2011 5:43 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ & JerryFloyd1 raise the issue of OCM's and their "futurecast" models which has long bothered me. I've found that most of them are so busy getting ready for their (4:00)+5:00+6:00 newscasts that they often don't incorporate late afternoon modeling. And I'm always a little suspicious of those hi-res "futurecasts" more than a few hours out. Also, those products take more than a little time to graphically render, so I wonder if they can't get them to include latest info in time for their newscasts. Just my $.02 worth.

Posted by: petworthlad | January 24, 2011 5:47 PM | Report abuse

Has anyone else seen NOAA's national hazardous/watch/warning outlook map? There are hazardous outlook statements all up the east coast...except for a bubble around DC. Amazing.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Posted by: homertuckumd | January 24, 2011 5:50 PM | Report abuse

I lurk at americanwx, but here's where I ask my amateurish questions. Camden, I know that the ground may have some warming Tues/Weds, but it's been in the deep freeze for days. There's ice on portions of the Potomac. Will it really warm up that significantly as to affect whatever snow we get?

Posted by: concepcion611 | January 24, 2011 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Just got back from work and checked the latest models for the first time today. Things are certainly turning around. DC and Baltimore could end up with 6+ if the latest GFS and NAM verify and the N/W suburbs (including us here in Carroll County) could even get a foot. Just hope the models don't flip flop again! Still a lot of time between now and Wednesday.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 24, 2011 5:54 PM | Report abuse

Dear CWG,

I regret my actions of "misquoting" Wes. It was childish and immature. I'm just so excited for this storm that I could not control myself. Sorry.

Sincerely,
SNOWLUVER

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | January 24, 2011 5:54 PM | Report abuse

Stupid billiards league... Question, How geek-ish would it be to be standing at a bar checking 00z model runs on an ipod?

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 5:55 PM | Report abuse

And having just asked that, I flipped over to the PSU thread, where someone just said:

"When snow comes down hard enough and melts on contact, the surface gets COOLER. And it keeps getting cooler and cooler until it's cold enough for snow to stick. Once that happens, it doesn't matter if the previous day was 70 degrees. "

Posted by: concepcion611 | January 24, 2011 5:55 PM | Report abuse

The funny thing is that Snowluver's misquoting of Wes actually seems to have predicted the 18Z GFS fairly accurately. Childish and immature? Maybe so. Prescient? Let's hope so.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 24, 2011 5:58 PM | Report abuse

@petworthlad

I agree, I really don't like those so-called "futurecast" things the meteorologists on TV show. Futurecasts shouldn't be taken seriously. I heard the new lady on ch. 9 say "latest model guidance points to all rain", which means she is either intentionally giving us false info or she hasn't looked at the latest runs of the NAM or GFS. That's what I love about CWG; they incorporate the newest model data into their forecasts as opposed to day old model data.

Hopefully by the time of the 11 pm newscasts, the local mets will have adjusted their forecasts accordingly as they look over the newest model data.

btw, for anyone who just moved to DC this winter or last winter, this storm is a PERFECT example of the typical DC winter storm. Last year we were spoiled since we never had to worry about temps and/or precip type.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 5:58 PM | Report abuse

this set up seems familiar to the mid February storm in 2006. This wasn't a big storm for DC, but did drop close to a foot in western Loudoun County. Models flipped back and forth from rain to snow to mix. Day before storm I believe temp's in the mid 40's and sunny. Following day the storm began as cold rain across the region, Leesburg and points NW quickly changed to a wet snow cooling the atmosphere whereas points SE slowly changed to snow. DC picked up 2-4 sloppy inches while Leesburg and points NW picked up 10-14 heavy wet inches of snow. Not saying that WILL happen this go around, but it wouldn't surprise me given all I've read from CWG thus far...

Posted by: TopperTed | January 24, 2011 6:13 PM | Report abuse

@Brian-CWG:

Presuming your billiards friends already know you are a meteorologist, I don't think you need to worry about surprising them with geeky behavior.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | January 24, 2011 6:14 PM | Report abuse

SNOWLUVER, that was great. I knew it was not Wes from the start (not bold). I wish it was him though. Your not the only snow lover around these parts.

Posted by: dannythe357 | January 24, 2011 6:15 PM | Report abuse

Brian - Get your geek on....and hoist one for me.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 24, 2011 6:15 PM | Report abuse

Does this mean that falls church will get wet snow.

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 6:22 PM | Report abuse

Okay... this is what I wanted to see!! The models are evolving to a colder solution and although CWG cautioning for us not to get too excited, they are also not saying that the trend is a fluke!

This is a HUGE sign... gotta go to Walmart... hope that there is a WSW when I return.

Posted by: jac8949 | January 24, 2011 6:24 PM | Report abuse

OMG!!!!!

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 6:27 PM | Report abuse

Is the current cold air going to be held in place or is a new front coming through as the low emerges off the coast? Not sure if I saw a mention in the comments (but I was scanning).

@Brian, I was proudly the weather geek at the office. Of course I found my info at CWG ;-)

Posted by: kygurl94 | January 24, 2011 6:30 PM | Report abuse

Doug Hill just basically said he doesn't really know what is going to happen. He says rain and snow around here and more snow N & W.

Posted by: BH99 | January 24, 2011 6:30 PM | Report abuse

jac8949 - I admire your enthusiasm. And you are picking up on CWG signals pretty well. Cautious, rational optimism! ;)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 6:30 PM | Report abuse

happens everytime, im actually more concerned now that we end up with nothing at all not even rain. every storm so far this winter this has happened, models 24 hours out or so come to consensus for winter precip but then when radar kicks in at zero hour, we get shafted.

the models are baiting you all. how mAny times have we been thru this, how many times have we been bullish on these events, how many times have the models done this, this close to winter precip?..... be ready for bust mode. Yeah its a wishcast and a gut feeling.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 6:36 PM | Report abuse

@Brian-CapitalWeatherGang, I used to surreptitiously check the CWG blog while out from my phone, but it got too difficult to hide (slow loading and whatnot) so I let my geek flag fly! People were into it- there's a lot of secret weather geeks out there!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 24, 2011 6:37 PM | Report abuse

There is nothing rational about being an ardent snowlover in the DC area.
We are doomed to winters of yearning & discontentment.

Just feeling happy that we will finally get a decent batch of precip......hopefully a lot. Wash my car.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 24, 2011 6:38 PM | Report abuse

Right now, I bet a lot of ppl is on the edge of there seats and seeing what this storm does, but @ this point I'm 50/50 with this storm anything can happened, but the good thing most of the model is on the same page as of now, it seems like it, but I was reading something on Facebook and Justin Berk made a statement:

"Good (late) afternoon all- quick notes: The morning models seem to be coming on some sort of line with the storm. First the time looks like later Wednesday into Thursday morning early. I see a stronger upper level Low and more blocking High in NE. That will hold temps in check.
I will post more details in a bit, but note they models have overdone precip for us all winter. Those holding for snow totals"

But I guess until the storm formed and comes up the coast anything can happen, let's see if the tonight model run and tomorrow run says....

Posted by: MNguyen6551 | January 24, 2011 6:41 PM | Report abuse

OMG!!!!!

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 6:45 PM | Report abuse

@ Kruz....

Since you are a snow hater why is it that you get shafted when the snow doesnt develop? Confusing...which side are you on? Getting shafted for you would mean 1 ft of snow for us correct? I think we all would like to see you get (safely) shafted.

Negativity is no good you are messing up our snow karma.....


Posted by: inthemiddle2 | January 24, 2011 6:53 PM | Report abuse

CWG: i KNOOOOOW that this is probably written SOMEWHERE, but at the risk of violating to insane forum/blogger's manual subsection: DONT ASK ABOUT STUFF THEY ALREADY SAID!!!!!, i would like to ask if there will be a nightime snow update, or live blog?

in short: WILL THERE BE A NIGHT-TIME UPDATE?

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 6:57 PM | Report abuse

Ahh. Who knew weather boards could be so fun???

@Brian
Yeah. That is geeky. Hope you are not there to impress the women.

Sooooo, who remembers the winter of '79??

Posted by: moo1 | January 24, 2011 7:00 PM | Report abuse

Brian...only slightly less geek-ish then checking on an I-"fad" Or being in a billiards league.

Posted by: TheMot | January 24, 2011 7:08 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

Shouldn't you be happy when it snows? you get paid money to work! Stop hatin on the snow and appreciate it.

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | January 24, 2011 7:10 PM | Report abuse

I just heard on TWC, Mr. Jim Cantoe said the big cities in I-95 from DC - Boston, needs to watch out since the computer models has been back and fourth... He did mentioned that the LOW will shifted little to the WEST giving the BIG CITIES snow, the only question is how much?... He does expected the NWS to issued some sort of Watched and/or Advisory soon....

Did anyone hear this??

Posted by: MNguyen6551 | January 24, 2011 7:13 PM | Report abuse

Jason,

Any chance we could get in on some of the minute by minute model updates tonight, as you have done in the past?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | January 24, 2011 7:14 PM | Report abuse

Still sticking with this being mostly rain, just don't c enough cold air 2 produce a snow storm. While some areas N & W might c some accum., the immediate DC area is mostl in 4 rain. This will not b a big snow storm.
CWG, where do u c the cold coming from that could make this more of a snow event?
I may be stubborn, but I just don't c enough cold air.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 24, 2011 7:14 PM | Report abuse

@snowluvr

sure i get paid to plow it but its the least favorite part of my job. mainly because of other "snow lovers" who insist on loving the snow, literally, out in the snow. its the most dangerous unsafe job there is because people act like kids when out on the roads in snow.

i truly feel like the only ppl that should be excited for snow is kids, adults have jobs and life to deal with and snow is just a dangerous pain in the rear. thats my take Anyways, its a little alarming to me the way grown men and women get excited like children for snow and then decide to go out in the snow and drive.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 7:21 PM | Report abuse

Well, Kruz, I'm one snow-lover that stays away from my car in the snow! I have no winter weather driving skills and I know it! I like to go for walks near my house, or play in the yard or at a nearby park, and then walk back home and stay toasty warm. Last year when I lived behind the Laurel Mall my husband and I would go out and help dig out people that were dumb and got themselves stuck, and would go walk around the lake.

It is certainly possible to love snow, and be responsible about it. I know that snow can make a lot of people's lives really difficult, and not everyone has the ability to take the time off from work. But since I DO, and my praying for snow isn't going to impact the outcome at all, I'm going to keep on loving, keep on hoping, and keep on hitting refresh in hopes of a snow-positive update. :-)

Posted by: megamuphen | January 24, 2011 7:26 PM | Report abuse

DEAR CAP WEATH GANG:
DID i read to 18z gfs right? -3*C and 1.5" LIQUID EQUIVELANT!!!
MORE THAN A FOOOOOOOT OF SNOW???

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 7:28 PM | Report abuse

I agree with @KRUZ - every single storm (or so called "storm") to skirt the area has done this 48-24 hours out the models all start agreeing on on snowier outcome and then 24-12 hours out the prediction falls to nothing - you all say "the trend is your friend" - this is a trend I'd call a "frenemy" - anyway, I'm thinking this one will go the way of the others - we have peaked on the roller coaster and it's all down here from here!

Posted by: mamory1975 | January 24, 2011 7:29 PM | Report abuse

Off topic, I had another decent striper fishing at the 301 Bridge, caught 17, including a 20,25,27,& 38 pounder. No wind, so I'm headed back 2morrow.
Actually saw a few snow flakes 2day.
Man I hate these mixed events, but it's been very dry & any prec. will b welomed, except 4 freezing rain.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 24, 2011 7:31 PM | Report abuse

mamory1975

Thanks for the pep talk!

Posted by: VAresident2 | January 24, 2011 7:35 PM | Report abuse

VaTechBob,

Dang, that's a lot of fish!

Please keep us posted!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 7:36 PM | Report abuse

@megamuphen

im glad you can enjoy snow responsibly! but for every one person out there like you that can enjoy it responsibly there are 10 who dont enjoy it responsibly. And they are driving and walking on the roads during snowstorm, they are getting stuck, leaving vehicles abandoned in the middle of narrow roads, driving 40 mph down steep hills, driving up steep hills :0 and so on.

Also im glad you have the luxury of being able to take off during snow, again i dont. But yeah, you are free to keep hoping and praying for snow and i will be here countering youre prayers with prayers for no snow and therefore praying for just a little more safety in the world! We have no control over it coming, but i for one see nothing good in it, at all.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 7:39 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

I appreciate your concerns--I have a 2 hour commute one way, and drive on one of the most rickety backroads in Loudoun to get where I go half the time.

That said, I love snow. It forces us to calm down, slow down, sip the cocoa, read a book, and take it a little easier for a day. Stress kills more Americans each year than snow, so I'm always grateful, especially in this area, when we're all forced to respect nature's power, appreciate its beauty, and take a day or two to just BE.

Thank you for keeping our roads safe!

Posted by: celt1 | January 24, 2011 7:47 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

while i generally find your attitude pessimistic, i can see the battle lines being drawn, as such: I FORMALLY REQUEST ALL STUBBORN-EXTREMESTS IN THE WAYS OF SNOW (PRO, OR CON) TO BACK OFF A BIT.

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 7:50 PM | Report abuse

So even if it does snow Wednesday it would seem it would be warm enough that flights could still take off, even if they are delayed for deicing right?!!? I love snow but it would figure this storm will trend to snow when I am trying for my first trip to London!

Posted by: justhavingfun4u1 | January 24, 2011 7:50 PM | Report abuse

VaTechBob,
are you a polar bear or something? a couple days ago you were talking about a 4 hour walk in the crazy cold. and, did you finally see fit to close that window?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 7:50 PM | Report abuse

Also, even when I didn't have the luxury of telecommuting last year--I worked in a stables--I just loved the snow, even after shoveling out entire horse trailers and 4x4 pickups :-)

Posted by: celt1 | January 24, 2011 7:51 PM | Report abuse

@celt1

Oh no 4x4 pick ups, those are the worst. nothing like drivers thinking they are superman in the snow because they have 4 wheel drive. those are usually the ones crashed into a telephone pole or tree but on the other hand, at least they arent stuck in the middle of the road like people in cars are!

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 8:04 PM | Report abuse

Excuse me? What is this I'm now hearing about a #snOMG? And which day/time would this be occurring? Inquiring minds would like to know..must decide on how to deal with work days scheduled..or NOT scheduled..LOL!

Posted by: CountytaxpayingCHNII | January 24, 2011 8:07 PM | Report abuse

Tell me about it.

My experience is, generally, the bigger the car, the worse the driving in snow. People just can't feel the road as well, or they get too confident, or all of the above.

I hope you never have to plow Snickersville Turnpike. It's 1 3/4 lanes wide, but people take it at 45 or 50 mph around hair-pin turns and up and down steep hills. The plows spend half the time dodging bad drivers literally to save their lives!

Posted by: celt1 | January 24, 2011 8:10 PM | Report abuse

@VaTechBob, Wish you lived near me. The Dupont Circle fishmonger won't have rockfish 'til February. All he is is perch as in yeech!

Until I see some fat wet flakes fall and accumulate on Wed., alas, your forecast is probably accurate. Mostly rain here, a good snow well to the west. Maybe an inch or two at the shank end of the storm.

I'm trying to figure out what to nosh on to make it snow. Maybe an Eskimo Bar? A snow cone? Apfelschnee! Better yet, an apfelschneetorte

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 8:10 PM | Report abuse

OMG SNOW... SNOW YESSS!

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 8:12 PM | Report abuse

kruz, you live EAST of DC so you probably have nothing to worry about - - but even if you do, I wish you good luck my friend. I have a high level of respect for people like you whose job it is to keep the roads clear. I bet you hated snowmageddon last year.

Walter,

I kind of like doing outdoors stuff in the cold. I'd rather go on a jog or bike ride in 32° weather than 100° weather. VaTechBob is so into fishing, I don't think a little thing like cold could stop him! :)

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 8:13 PM | Report abuse

I help people out when we get bad storms maybe like this one. Cars stuck I throw my jacket on and boots on and get the unstuck from the snow.

Posted by: SNOWLOVER1994FOURLIFE | January 24, 2011 8:20 PM | Report abuse

Thx for the luck Bob!!!!

I only live and work about a mile or so east of DC or more north east :/ Live in Hyattsville so that rain/snow line is darn close and like CWG said, just a couple miles track difference I could be right in the mix of the mess. Hope not! All you ppl well north and west i hope you get all the snow you dream for, i hope it skips my area though!

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 8:22 PM | Report abuse

Ate grouper in the Bahamas last week. Delicious! It was breaded (grouper fingers)
and delicious with some tartar sauce and a side of fries. But that was a week and a half ago. Now I await the possibility for snow back in the DC area. I sure do hope that the next model runs verify what the 18z runs put out.

Posted by: BH99 | January 24, 2011 8:22 PM | Report abuse

Radar is showing some snow over us, dont think its hitting the ground tho. Weather.com says a half inch of snow is possible through 2am tonight :/

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 8:27 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ, my boyfriend, mitchrapp, said the dew point needs to come up to about 20* and the temp to fall to about 23* (given the 66% humidity) for any snow to really start falling...still kinda cool! Thanks for the heads up

Posted by: kygurl94 | January 24, 2011 8:35 PM | Report abuse

@BH99, Having group up in Florida, know about grouper. Yum.m.m. that and red snapper. But the best is walleyed pike, eaten in Minnesota, when the temperature is a few degrees above zero outside and its snowing.

My brother, who is of course also a Florida cracker, lives in NE Minnesota. Loves it there!

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 8:36 PM | Report abuse

Wednesday:
Are we still looking at a 3-7 a.m. Wednesdsy start time for the precip.?
Looks to be some really wet & heavy stuff IF this happens.

Posted by: bodyiq | January 24, 2011 8:37 PM | Report abuse

I'm trying to figure out which 11 pm weather I should watch... Topper is off tonight, Sue Palka I don't care for; I'll probably watch Bob Ryan. Or maybe the new guy, Doug, on ch. 4. Sigh... Ch.4 just hasn't been the same since Bob left. Oh how I PINE for the old days when it was Vance, Gentzler, George Michael, Bob Ryan, and Arch Campbell: Washington's Best News-team. If Jim or Doreen leaves, I'm officially done with ch. 4. Bob Ryan just isn't the same on ch. 7. Even though Bob isn't a snow-lover (well, he SAYS he is), I still love to watch his forecasts.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 24, 2011 8:39 PM | Report abuse

Folks- Ian is going to live blog the models coming this evening - roughly in the 9 and 11 p.m. timeframe.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 8:40 PM | Report abuse

@CWG and bloggers. What Weather APPS do you recommend for the iPhone??? Any cool radars or anything I should have????

Also, for those of you who can read the models...keep reading them and posting what you see! It's awesome to read your blogs. Thank you all!

Posted by: RJ16 | January 24, 2011 8:44 PM | Report abuse

Yes.... Live blog!! Thanks Jason

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 24, 2011 8:47 PM | Report abuse

@BobMiller, when Gordon Peterson, Maureen Bunyan, Doug Hill, and Glen Brenner were at WUSA, that, too, was a golden age for local TV newscasting. At least Gordon, Maureen, and Doug, and Bob Ryan are at WJLA, so it ain't all bad. Doug Hill and Bob Ryan really cook when they are on together. It's like listening to/watching a fine chamber music ensemble.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 24, 2011 8:48 PM | Report abuse

RJ16

the weather channel iphone app does have a radar built in. or you can just bookmark the radar on the side of cwg page and open it up in safari, same goes for TWC website.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 24, 2011 8:49 PM | Report abuse

iPhone apps - try weather bug and accweather both have radar

Posted by: Rjmw | January 24, 2011 8:53 PM | Report abuse

Agree with Celt1-

I am an adult and I still get very excited for snow. I don't think there are many things more beautiful than seeing everything covered in a white blanket. And things are so calm and quiet and serene, if just for a minute. And I still love the things of the days of yor- building snowman, sledding and hot cocoa. I'm not one that heads out either, I'm scared to drive in it!

Anyway, bring it on!

Posted by: icecubedownthetoilet | January 24, 2011 8:57 PM | Report abuse

Heads up, we're going to do model tracking here.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2011 9:05 PM | Report abuse

Kruz, you said,
"i truly feel like the only ppl that should be excited for snow is kids, adults have jobs and life to deal with and snow is just a dangerous pain in the rear."

well, fair enough. i feel sorry for people who can only see snow as a pain in the rear...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 24, 2011 9:07 PM | Report abuse

@JerryFloyd1: "Doug Hill and Bob Ryan...It's like listening to/watching a fine chamber music ensemble." Well, sometimes it's a little more like Ferrante & Teicher.

Posted by: petworthlad | January 24, 2011 9:07 PM | Report abuse

@JerryFloyd1, I agree there's nothing like Walleye, one of the best fish I've eaten. Curious; do you ever get up this way in winter to visit your brother and also get your snow fix!
Your brother must be a nonconformist, more Floridians from Minnesota than vice versa.

Posted by: dvorak9 | January 24, 2011 9:52 PM | Report abuse

I vote for rain - @manatt makes a lot of sense in pointing out that warm air is nowhere to be found right now, but all it takes is a coastal low pressure tracking too far to the west, and we'll get a strong southerly flow off the Outer Banks that will warm things up in a matter of hours.

Posted by: prickles1009 | January 24, 2011 10:22 PM | Report abuse

Even though it went down to 6 last night I still slept with the window open last night. Haven't worn a coat all winter, except when fishing. Would love 2 spend a winter on MT. Washington.
While still don't expect this 2 me a big snow storm, I now think we will c a little more snow, maybe 1-2" in the DC area with more N & W. Just not enough cold air 2 produce a big snow 4 the local area.
Fishing again 2morrow.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 24, 2011 11:28 PM | Report abuse

"Even though it went down to 6 last night I still slept with the window open last night. Haven't worn a coat all winter,"

WAT?????

Posted by: fakedude2 | January 25, 2011 1:00 AM | Report abuse

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