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Posted at 3:45 PM ET, 01/11/2011

PM Update: Some light snow this evening

By Jason Samenow

Accumulations trimmed back

For snow skeptics, it probably comes as little surprise that snow totals are likely to be at the low end of earlier predictions (which were for 1-3", except 2-4" NE of the District). We've been advertising this as no more than a light to moderate event, and indicated better odds of the low end. Indeed, observations and model guidance are now pointing toward a light event, perhaps very light (or non-existent) as you head south and southwest. Still, some snow and ice should develop this evening, especially around D.C. and to the north.


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: Given the storm's slow development, the early commute home looks fine. A period of light snow, mixing with sleet and freezing rain, should (60-70% chance) develop around 5 or 6 p.m. The most likely window for accumulating snow remains after dark, between around 7 and 10 p.m. - although the farther south and southwest of town you go, the more the chance of snow declines. The snow - ranging from a dusting to 2" - could mix with a little sleet and freezing drizzle, especially when the precipitation is light. Just a little ice could cause dangerous roads.

Wes Junker, our winter weather expert, writes in to say:

The models have been trending towards lighter amounts suggesting that most of the area will see just 1 or 2 inches with amounts less than 1 inch south and southwest of the city. East of the city most areas probably will be more in the 1 to possibly 3 inch range especially toward Baltimore and Annapolis where they could pick up 3 inches if the storm develops fast enough. But right now that is looking less likely. The radar looks pretty meager but is not expected to fill in until evening with the snow mostly occurring after dark. This type of storm is frustrating to forecast since we're waiting for the precipitation to develop almost right over us, so we won't know for sure whether the precipitation area will develop until it's almost on us or by us.

After midnight, the storm pulls away, and skies slowly partially clear. Lows should be in the mid-to-upper 20s.

Bottom line: Accumulations should range from a dusting to 2" in the metro region with the most NE, and the least SW.

Keep reading for the forecast for tomorrow, SchoolCast, FedCast, and more...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Skies become partly sunny and it's windy and cold as the storm winds up to our northeast. Highs are 35-40 with winds from the northwest at 15-25 with some higher gusts.

See Matt Roger's forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

SchoolCast

FedCast

capitol-black.jpgcapitol-gray.jpgcapitol-gray.jpgcapitol-gray.jpg

Comic of the day

Dennis_The_Menace.gif

Source: Dennis the Menace cartoon by Hank Ketcham (h/t Steve Tracton)

By Jason Samenow  | January 11, 2011; 3:45 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Midday round-up: Light snow event on track
Next: Update: Storm is over

Comments

Drat.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 11, 2011 3:46 PM | Report abuse

I hear Don Meredith singing.

Posted by: DullesARC | January 11, 2011 3:47 PM | Report abuse

All I can asy is horrible.

Posted by: dannythe357 | January 11, 2011 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Hi guys...how much snow has fallen at the airports this season vs. the average to date? thanks in advance...

Posted by: weatherdude | January 11, 2011 3:48 PM | Report abuse

I hear Don Meredith singing.

Posted by: DullesARC | January 11, 2011 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Bust number two. Dos-busters anyone?

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 11, 2011 3:49 PM | Report abuse

The Winter of Meh.

Posted by: ennepe68 | January 11, 2011 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Light, but very cold drizzle, downtown near Farragut West.

However, dusting to 1" of salt on the street.

Posted by: NoVAHoyaDan | January 11, 2011 3:50 PM | Report abuse

ABC7's Bob Ryan said, "I'm betting close call 2-5'' N and NE still 1-3'' DC" on twitter.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 3:50 PM | Report abuse

WTF why???? FML

Posted by: samdman95 | January 11, 2011 3:50 PM | Report abuse

We should have at least one big storm before winter ends, right?

Posted by: cubscapsfan | January 11, 2011 3:51 PM | Report abuse

As I said even while the 2-6" predictions were up, it's not going to snow. It's not a snow lovers winter. Every *potential* for snow this year has been downgraded.

We were told at the Boxing Day miss that there's plenty of winter left, but this is becoming a trend now.

The geographic question I have for CWG or weather experts: If the snow is going to miss us, why doesn't the cold and/or wind as well? (serious question actually).

Posted by: superseiyan | January 11, 2011 3:51 PM | Report abuse

boooo :(

Posted by: 882181 | January 11, 2011 3:51 PM | Report abuse

Chicken little strikes again.

Posted by: hofbrauhausde | January 11, 2011 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Some forecast. When will we get some real snow!! This little stuff is boring!

Posted by: rb227 | January 11, 2011 3:52 PM | Report abuse

NWS accumulation map significantly scaled down as well...

Posted by: weatherdude | January 11, 2011 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Sad. Are we to get any accumulating snow this season? :(

Posted by: sarah54 | January 11, 2011 3:53 PM | Report abuse

http://www.nonstick.com/sounds/Yosemite_Sam/ltys_066.mp3

and, please, i really don't care to hear about how philly, ny and boston will get "pounded" or whatever. even more galling is hearing about 6"+ in alabama, georgia and the carolinas! ugh...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnDxPG3KrtA

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 11, 2011 3:53 PM | Report abuse

For snow lovers in the DC metro area, this is unfortunately a trend we should get used to for this winter. But we always have 2010!

Posted by: parksndc | January 11, 2011 3:54 PM | Report abuse

As I said even while the 2-6" predictions were up, it's not going to snow. It's not a snow lovers winter. Every *potential* for snow this year has been downgraded.

We were told at the Boxing Day miss that there's plenty of winter left, but this is becoming a trend now.

The geographic question I have for CWG or weather experts: If the snow is going to miss us, why doesn't the cold and/or wind as well? (serious question actually).

Posted by: superseiyan | January 11, 2011 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Some forecast. When will we get some real snow!! This little stuff is boring!

Posted by: rb227 | January 11, 2011 3:52 PM |
-----------------------------------------------------
Well, this GFS run has some good snow on 1/20, but that's still pretty far out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_216s.gif

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Just got back from Giant. Fighting in the bottled water aisle, took 20+ minutes to check out.

Posted by: getjiggly2 | January 11, 2011 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Depressing... Simply depressing. *whimper*

Posted by: sigmagrrl | January 11, 2011 3:56 PM | Report abuse

http://www.nonstick.com/sounds/Yosemite_Sam/ltys_066.mp3

and, please, i really don't care to hear about how philly, ny and boston will get "pounded" or whatever. even more galling is hearing about 6"+ in alabama, georgia and the carolinas! ugh...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnDxPG3KrtA

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 11, 2011 3:53 PM |
-----------------------------------------------------
Are you trying to say that you're as mad as yosemite sam?? haha :)

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 3:57 PM | Report abuse

@getjiggly2:

Really, 20+ minute wait at the check-out line? Just goes to show how badly Washingtonians handle snow... That's why I did my shopping 2 days ago.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 3:59 PM | Report abuse

Well, this GFS run has some good snow on 1/20, but that's still pretty far out.

=============

Meanwhile, The Weather Channel calls for sunny skies with a high of 34 and a 0% chance of precipitation.

Posted by: hofbrauhausde | January 11, 2011 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Weather forecasters are like Palm Readers - eventually something they say will be right about the future but most of the time they are wrong.

Posted by: greg2010 | January 11, 2011 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Re: post-storm wind. Some wind is inevitable as the storm blows up to the NE. However, it is not going to stall and give us winds for days because NAO is trending positive.

Posted by: eric654 | January 11, 2011 4:02 PM | Report abuse

as much as I love this site (and have since 2004) and will continue to visit here for the best wx info around, I have to say, respectfully, that downgrading your totals DURING the event is nowcasting, not forecasting. not trying to be nit-picky here, just my $.02.

Posted by: rhingo | January 11, 2011 4:02 PM | Report abuse

At least Monday's forecast rain can help wash away the pickled crystals coating the streets. Nothing on Mosaic to provide any encouragement here. I'm wondering if Philly is overestimating their 4"-8" snow potential?

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 4:03 PM | Report abuse

Weather forecasters are like Palm Readers - eventually something they say will be right about the future but most of the time they are wrong.

Posted by: greg2010 | January 11, 2011 4:00 PM |
====================================================
Yes, greg, but CWG has been predicting 1-4 inches for at least four or five days.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 4:04 PM | Report abuse

@Jason, great Dennis the Menace" cartoon. Sez it all.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 4:06 PM | Report abuse

Yet another bust in the forecast! When will the big snow hit, if ever? These 1"-2" storms are boring.

Posted by: rb227 | January 11, 2011 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Tomorrow is going to be cold with highs in the low thirties AND WINDY! I absolutely detest wind.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Snowfail.

Posted by: allagar | January 11, 2011 4:10 PM | Report abuse

"Well, this GFS run has some good snow on 1/20, but that's still pretty far out."

There's also something in the Gulf of Mexico in the Jan. 25-27 time frame that would look really ominous at another time of year (i.e. hurricane season). If that or something similar were to come up the Atlantic Coast at this time of year, then look out, especially if it were to jog a bit to the west. But who knows if it will be on there in a few days...

Posted by: mkarns | January 11, 2011 4:10 PM | Report abuse

(sigh) snow disappointed :/

Posted by: mudbucket | January 11, 2011 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Yet another bust in the forecast! When will the big snow hit, if ever? These 1"-2" storms are boring.

Posted by: rb227 | January 11, 2011 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Dang, that's disappointing.

@samdman:(But FML? REALLY? Your L must be pretty good if a lack of snow is "F"-worthy.)

Posted by: rj2835a | January 11, 2011 4:10 PM | Report abuse

@rb227

From what I've noticed ever since I moved here, D.C. averages a storm of 20+ inches about ever 5 - 7 years.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 4:10 PM | Report abuse

@rb227, even1-2" would look great! Right now, though, I hear the fat lady warming up her vocal chords.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 4:14 PM | Report abuse

@ CWG:
Tomorrow (Tuesday): Skies become partly sunny and it's windy and cold as the storm winds up to our northeast. Highs are 35-40 with winds from the northwest at 15-25 with some higher gusts.

Tomorrow is Wednesday. Just fyi.

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | January 11, 2011 4:14 PM | Report abuse

I expressed thoughts 24 hrs. ago regarding much of the area, especially west of Baltimore probably receiving an inch or less.

I guess I may have been lucky with my thoughts this time around, but "it ain't over, til it's over"...........

I recalled many years of observation, regarding a weak primary north of Hatteras depending on a transfer of energy from the OV usually ending in disappointment for our region and systems often losing punch crossing the mts. from the west, especially with existing synoptics.

The models have been indicating this lee side shadow for my area for several days. D.C. has always been marginal.

When in doubt, I usually go with persistence. The trend can be your friend or enemy...........................

Good luck D.C. snowlovers! It's not over until about midnight.

Posted by: AugustaJim | January 11, 2011 4:15 PM | Report abuse

After nearly 45 years in the weather business, I've learned the trend is your friend when forecasting! That is of course unless you're a snow lover this year!!!

I've had some memorable hits and some forgetable busts.

Posted by: Jimbo77 | January 11, 2011 4:15 PM | Report abuse

@ BobMiller2

I'd be happy with 6+! I've seen more salt accumulation than snow!

Posted by: rb227 | January 11, 2011 4:15 PM | Report abuse

Wonderful news! I could maybe dredge up some enthusiasm for snow if I had nothing to do but cozy up at home. But the thought of fighting it during the evening rush, with my toddler in the car, is more stress than I care for today.

That said, it would be nice to see a bona fide snow day before the end of winter. A good payoff for dealing with all this bitter bitter cold. But I'm not at all sorry that it's not happening this evening. Besides, even if this one were to hit the top of the forecast, it would be coming at such an hour that many folks wouldn't get a snow day, anyway. There would be time to plow the roads before morning. I'll take my storms starting in the wee hours - too late to interfere with evening, but late enough to close schools and businesses in the morning!

Posted by: yellowdusk | January 11, 2011 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Just goes to show you can not simulate mother nature all of the time. I think the weather models (GFS, EURO, NAM, etc.) should be shelved for a couple of weeks. Looks like it may be to warm to get any winter weather the rest of January.

Posted by: Showmethesnow | January 11, 2011 4:17 PM | Report abuse

El Busto

Posted by: MDFan | January 11, 2011 4:17 PM | Report abuse

How much did Atlanta end up getting? I heard they got more than six inches, but I don't know the exact amount...

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 4:18 PM | Report abuse

It's like the return of an old nemesis who took a break last year. The disappointment so far this year is how it usually is during winter here in DC. Woe to the snowlover who moved to DC in November 2009 and now has a totally unrealistic, high expectation that will slowly be crushed and ground into the soggy (raining and 35 degrees), brown (no snow) ground, year after year. I know, because I moved here right before the 1987 suprise Veteran's Day storm and on the heels of stories of the snowstorms of 1986-87. It was a bitter 10 years, and then the day before the 1996 blizzard, I moved to Florida. Sigh.

Posted by: xandersun | January 11, 2011 4:18 PM | Report abuse

Just got home (south of Alexandria). It's raining.

Posted by: bdeco | January 11, 2011 4:18 PM | Report abuse

@Mudbucket: Snow disappointed = good one!

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 4:20 PM | Report abuse

@bdeco

Raining??? Here in NE Loudoun, we're getting flurries. If that rain freezes, that could make for some icy roadways...

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 4:21 PM | Report abuse

The problem may be that GWG has done too much work here. Like I think the more posts about the an upcoming "event", blog updates, comments, etc. subconsciously lead people into thinking it's gonna be something big or considerable to merit so much attention, regardless if GWG has been forecasting conservatively for days. So when it turns out to be tiny event people get upset and wonder why GWG exerted so much effort to inform us if it turned out to be mostly a non-event. I don't know.

Posted by: kwojciec | January 11, 2011 4:22 PM | Report abuse

Well using my models, I predicted trace to less than 1" a couple of days ago.

The reason we are not seeing any snow this winter is too many people in this area bought snow blowers after last winter. So that creates a no snow zone over the DC area that cancels any real measurable snow storms in this area for at least two years!

Sorry snow lovers!

Posted by: Firedude | January 11, 2011 4:22 PM | Report abuse

I guess we're not naming this storm?? I haven't seen any suggestions. May I be the first to nominate "No-Mageddon: Part Deux"

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 4:23 PM | Report abuse

Well we must destroy the snow blowers then. Screw preparedness, we need some real snow :)

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | January 11, 2011 4:24 PM | Report abuse

@BobMiller---you are wrong about how often we get storms of that magnitude...

Posted by: weatherdude | January 11, 2011 4:24 PM | Report abuse

BobMiller2

How much snow would the storm of 1/20 possibly give us if the gfs is correct??

Posted by: bobdello01 | January 11, 2011 4:25 PM | Report abuse

Let the attacks on CWG for their forecast (which always held this out as a fair possibility) begin . . . and probably on xandersun for his accurate assesment of how winter is usually in DC.

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | January 11, 2011 4:25 PM | Report abuse

Although I'm not surprised about the snow trimmed back or even get nothing, but I do appreciated all the local meteorologist including CWG, if you think about I mean the storm has been in the model, but just not forming the right way when hit us....

Cuddos to all the meteorologist including CWG!

Question.... When a storm phase out how long does it takes to transfer it's energy to the main low??

Speaking of this weekend although the model looks good, but I'm not going bet about this storm....

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 11, 2011 4:26 PM | Report abuse

NWS now saying an inch for DC proper

Posted by: weatherdude | January 11, 2011 4:29 PM | Report abuse

Oh, I mean there is another factor that completely got ignored in all this forecasting--especially since there are so many folks out there wanting to get out of school and work. It is not the weekend. Don't you know, statistically, there is a 95% chance that it will not snow big in DC unless it is a Friday night . . . (of a long three day weekend)

Posted by: xandersun | January 11, 2011 4:30 PM | Report abuse

Well, at least El Bombo can dance his heart away tonight!

Posted by: greg2010 | January 11, 2011 4:33 PM | Report abuse

BobMiller2

How much snow would the storm of 1/20 possibly give us if the gfs is correct??

Posted by: bobdello01 | January 11, 2011 4:25 PM |
---------------------------------------------------------
If that GFS run does indeed verify, it would give us 7-12 inches!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 4:35 PM | Report abuse

the Bust potential of the last two storms was each 20%. the odds of this double bust was 4%. But it still happened :(.

Posted by: samdman95 | January 11, 2011 4:36 PM | Report abuse

Drats on the scaled back forecast. Can we at least start talking about NEXT week's storm? :)

Posted by: Hanz1 | January 11, 2011 4:37 PM | Report abuse

Ugly rain with a little sleet. UGH!

Does anyone have have any jackets with long sleeves that tie in the back for Walter, Bob and Snowlover?

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | January 11, 2011 4:37 PM | Report abuse

Why do the lows usually track further out to sea, rather than more west? What was different about last winter that made us get the brunt of 2 major storms?

Just wondering.

Posted by: dmackerman6226 | January 11, 2011 4:41 PM | Report abuse

@Alexandria2009

Good catch... thanks for flagging. Now fixed.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 4:42 PM | Report abuse

Why do the lows usually track further out to sea, rather than more west? What was different about last winter that made us get the brunt of 2 major storms?

Just wondering.

Posted by: dmackerman6226 | January 11, 2011 4:41 PM |
------------------------------------------------------
Well, that's a pretty complicated question that I'm sure comes with a pretty complicated answer.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 4:46 PM | Report abuse

Looking forward to a nice quiet commute home and no snow shoveling tonight.

Posted by: Axel2 | January 11, 2011 4:47 PM | Report abuse

Everyone gets snow while we get bupkis. I knew not to expect much, but as the forecast verifies I am getting more and more bummed.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 11, 2011 4:47 PM | Report abuse

@BobMiller2

How about "Part Dew" vs. "Part Deux"?

Posted by: Ayrwulf | January 11, 2011 4:47 PM | Report abuse

next week imo will be a nice rain event, maybe some mixing in the beginning or end. just my guess. seems like a warm up coming after jan 20.

i knew these totals from all the local mets were on average too high for this event. im not pointing fingers at cap wx, im just saying in general it shouldve been a T - maybe 2 inch call the while time for DC metro.

how sure are you guys at cwg that this radar is gonna fill in later, whats your confidence level in that?

Posted by: KRUZ | January 11, 2011 4:49 PM | Report abuse

so next week has some potential? the 10 day looks warm and rain?

Posted by: rb227 | January 11, 2011 4:52 PM | Report abuse

Light snow in western Fauquier county. Pretreatment on 66 is workng, road is just wet with a little road spray. Radar seems to be filling in a bit too.

Posted by: eric654 | January 11, 2011 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Born and raised in Wisconsin, I love snow--don't get me wrong. (And no, I'm not going to succumb to that annoying tendency among some Midwesterners now living in DC who like to say: "Snow? That ain't snow. I'll show you snow."

Even still, I'm always amused by the snow worshippers' laments on the CWG blog that appear to stem from Chicken Little Syndrome, i.e. "are we going to get aaaaaaannnnny snow this winter?"

Boys and girls: winter is just 21 days old. Be cool.

Posted by: MRK33 | January 11, 2011 4:55 PM | Report abuse

samdman95 - Could still snow 1-2 inchs in places...CWG had a pretty solid forecast, better than just about everyone in the area.

Posted by: parksndc | January 11, 2011 4:57 PM | Report abuse

BUST.

How can you mend a broken heart?

Posted by: heatherdc1980 | January 11, 2011 4:57 PM | Report abuse

so next week has some potential? the 10 day looks warm and rain?

Posted by: rb227 | January 11, 2011 4:52 PM |
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The next 10 days look warm???? According to IntelliCast, highs won't make it above 40 or so for the next ten days; and that's below average.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USDC0001

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 4:59 PM | Report abuse


"Boys and girls: winter is just 21 days old. Be cool."

Unfortunately for those looking for snow, its 42 days old, almost half-way over. Meteorological winter is December, January and February in the Northern Hemisphere. By March 1st, average high is 50 in this area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorological_winter

Posted by: apeirond | January 11, 2011 5:01 PM | Report abuse

Just a reminder, we must all brace ourselves for the wind tomorrow - - gusts of 30+ mph. That = wind chill.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 5:03 PM | Report abuse

looks like there is some pretty sweet snow filling up the radar over by I-81 - it looks like that could be making it's way over to the I-270 corridor within a few hours.

Take a deep breath and stop calling bust for a storm that was predicted to snow 1-4" in a time frame that hasn't even arrived yet.

Posted by: mo26 | January 11, 2011 5:04 PM | Report abuse

Dear CWG, If the radar doesn't fill in soon, when is it time to throw in the towel and give up on more than a dusting?

Posted by: samdman95 | January 11, 2011 5:05 PM | Report abuse

Radar appears to be filling in a little. It's also snowing lightly, but decently, outside my office here in Oakton. I somehow don't think this will bust. It will be what I figured - a very minor event.

Posted by: jahutch | January 11, 2011 5:07 PM | Report abuse

Drizzle and fog in Ashburn. Shouldn't we be more worried about freezing drizzle/fog more than snow at this hour?

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 11, 2011 5:07 PM | Report abuse

@BobMiller2, Atlanta officially had 4.4" of snow fell down there. Hartsfield is SW of downtown so areas north of the city may have had more.

Source: http://nowdata.rcc-acis.org/FFC/pubACIS_results

They had ice on top of the snow and that's why the city is so paralyzed (although 4" in Atlanta is equivalent to about 14" here).

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 11, 2011 5:09 PM | Report abuse

Meteorologist - n. - the only job in the world you can do poorly, be consistently wrong and still be gainfully employed.

Posted by: AlwaysanEagle1 | January 11, 2011 5:14 PM | Report abuse

For all those complaining this winter is a bust, this just seems like a normal DC winter to me (maybe a little colder than normal). I was born and raised here, lived here all my 27 years and winters like last year are rare, not the norm. That's the most snow I had ever seen. It seems pretty normal to get a big snow every 4-5 years with most winters only getting a trace. So stop whining. We were just spoiled last year is all.

Posted by: UMDTerpsGirl | January 11, 2011 5:15 PM | Report abuse

Maybe we should start talking about what this storm will bring Western MD and other ski resorts local to Washington. Looks like 8 inches or so for Wisp. Tempted to take a "snow day" and go find the snow that won't come here.

Posted by: biketraveller22 | January 11, 2011 5:16 PM | Report abuse

The only thing worse than an underperforming snow forecast is when it's actually coming down in the form of freakin' RAIN. UGH, so tired of this...

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | January 11, 2011 5:17 PM | Report abuse

The storm is still forming, and radar is blooming to the west of DC as the atmosphere gets going. Until the cold air is fully mixed into the storm and overhead the Metro Area (hasn't happened yet--atmosphere still not as unstable as when the storm gets nearer the area) the light precipitation should turn to snow. There could be a small coating.. as with all winter storms.. on roads and sidewalks before you see sizable flakes.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 5:20 PM | Report abuse

If anyone reading this blog happens to be in NYC or Boston, please, please, please, I beg of you, send some snow this way and you can have our wind! We snow lovers are desperate!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 5:21 PM | Report abuse

@kwojciec

You may be right. I don't think we've ever covered a 1-3" type event in as much depth. Maybe the volume of posts/coverage increased expectations. On the flip side, I think a lot of people enjoy learning about how these storms develop and the "sport" of model analysis/tracking.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 5:22 PM | Report abuse

Was snowing moderately in Baltimore for about 15 minutes, enough to coat cars and lightly trafficked roads. Completely stopped now and even looks like its clearing some.

Posted by: jdtdc | January 11, 2011 5:26 PM | Report abuse

No snow falling, but worse, freezing drizzle here in Oakton, VA. I just nearly wiped out walking down the driveway to retrieve the garbage can. It's a sheet of ice out there.

Posted by: FH59312 | January 11, 2011 5:29 PM | Report abuse

"I don't think we've ever covered a 1-3" type event in as much depth. Maybe the volume of posts/coverage increased expectations. On the flip side, I think a lot of people enjoy learning about how these storms develop and the "sport" of model analysis/tracking."

If there had never been the potential for anything more, then I don't think there would have been as much coverage, or as much commentary. Something that is only 1-3" from the start and doesn't change would probably be met with a "ho-hum" from many, including me.

But if there is overcoverage here, it is quite educational. I've learned a lot lately about how storms develop (or not), and how to read the models, estimate what sort of precipitation might fall (like how much precip equals how much snow cover) and how reliable the models are and what might change them.

Posted by: mkarns | January 11, 2011 5:32 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA - Just came from Manassas through bands of freezing drizzle. All elavated surfaces here are glazed. Main roads have a lot of treatment on them so they just seem wet. Visibility is poor.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 11, 2011 5:33 PM | Report abuse

If we are not going to get much snow this winter ....bring on an early Spring. I can't take this cold and wind anymore !

Posted by: photojenn | January 11, 2011 5:35 PM | Report abuse

Any ideas for the weather outcomes for oakton? And also what actions do you think fairfax county schools will take tomorrow?

Posted by: bmxphenom50 | January 11, 2011 5:35 PM | Report abuse

Any ideas for the weather outcomes for oakton? And also what actions do you think fairfax county schools will take tomorrow?

Posted by: bmxphenom50 | January 11, 2011 5:36 PM | Report abuse

re: questions about the radar filling in...

We're starting to see that a bit, with activity developing to the west and southwest. Precip may start as light freezing rain...before intensity increases enough for snow.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 5:37 PM | Report abuse

Freezing drizzle in Friendship Heights. Dark, untreated surfaces getting icy quickly.

Posted by: dhb2 | January 11, 2011 5:37 PM | Report abuse

"I think a lot of people enjoy learning about how these storms develop and the "sport" of model analysis/tracking."

Exactly. And the real problem, as I've observed this year, is when people who apparently are just coming to check the weather and vent on the message boards flock in on the eve of an event and have no respect for the science/intellect of the people who are interpreting it in real time.

Y'all need a steam valve. Direct all that energy toward a place where people can get general, "fit for public consumption" information and keep this place where those who want to see behind the curtain separate. Bad idea to combine the two.

I think it's a great idea to have CWG as the Post's official forecasters, but the vast majority of people who check the paper for weather aren't expecting a forecast that changes by the hour, as is the case here, and it seems they can't wrap their minds around the fact that the weather forecast is a moving target. You might want to lobby whoever links the forecasts to send people to the general weather page sans prominent links to the blog.

Posted by: AdmiralX | January 11, 2011 5:37 PM | Report abuse

Any chance of no school because of the freezing drizzle?

Posted by: MocoSnow | January 11, 2011 5:39 PM | Report abuse

It's just drizzle outside. Plain, ordinary drizzle.

I'm not believing any more snow forecasts this winter unless and until it starts actually piling up on the sidewalk!

Posted by: HenryFPotter | January 11, 2011 5:39 PM | Report abuse

Just drove home along the Ffx Cty Pkway. Drizzle only. Not a flake in sight. We are on the island of misfit toys.

Posted by: barbnc | January 11, 2011 5:40 PM | Report abuse

Freezing drizzle in McLean

Posted by: cubscapsfan | January 11, 2011 5:44 PM | Report abuse

Even with radar filling in, looks to be moving SW to NE...and looks to fill in JUST north of DC when it gets this far east. Crazy.

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | January 11, 2011 5:44 PM | Report abuse

Bobmiller

So wait i thoght you said that, the storm for next week had a potential for 20-25" or was that just a joke? and are there any other potential storms? and what could be the most optomistic outcomes?

Posted by: bobdello01 | January 11, 2011 5:45 PM | Report abuse

Freezing drizzle in in Lanham, MD.

Posted by: dcg35 | January 11, 2011 5:46 PM | Report abuse

Drizzling in Alexandria...freezing as well.

Posted by: hereandnow1 | January 11, 2011 5:46 PM | Report abuse

we are getting something i would have to call freezing mist here in fredericksburg. is that even a thing? it shouldn't be. gross. just snow already...

Posted by: ashleyba | January 11, 2011 5:46 PM | Report abuse

"I don't think we've ever covered a 1-3" type event in as much depth. Maybe the volume of posts/coverage increased expectations. On the flip side, I think a lot of people enjoy learning about how these storms develop and the "sport" of model analysis/tracking."

The whole reason I come here is for in depth analysis- because I enjoy it, weather is an interest of mine. I would want this for any event- minor or major. There is also the other Wapo page for more standard coverage.

I just walked to the store- in the rain. Cold rain here in Alexandria. :( (No, I wasn't getting TP and milk- I needed groceries. The store was empty)

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 11, 2011 5:47 PM | Report abuse

Few flakes then drizzle falling SE of Capitol Hill.

Posted by: NaomiHB | January 11, 2011 5:47 PM | Report abuse

@Jason

I think that there are two reasons for so much interest in this storm:

1. With the snow drought so far this winter, snow-lovers are desperate for something, anything, to hold out hope for.

2. It is a coastal system, which is where our biggest storms usually come from. The idea, or hope, that it could suddenly blow up and overachieve drives interest. I doubt an Alberta Clipper with four-inch potential would draw quite as much interest, but I could be wrong.

Posted by: bdeco | January 11, 2011 5:47 PM | Report abuse

It started snowing in Olney about 45 mins ago---for about 10 minutes. It stopped for a while but is coming down at a decent clip. I need to quickly make hot cocoa before it stops so I can get in at least one winter moment or two.

Posted by: lilymama | January 11, 2011 5:49 PM | Report abuse

It started snowing in Olney about 45 mins ago---for about 10 minutes. It stopped for a while but is coming down at a decent clip. I need to quickly make hot cocoa before it stops so I can get in at least one winter moment or two.

Posted by: lilymama | January 11, 2011 5:50 PM | Report abuse

Another reason for the interest is that so many people started coming to this site after last year's winter.

Posted by: rocotten | January 11, 2011 5:51 PM | Report abuse

That band of precip on radar NW of DC and heading toward it is sleet. My absolute fave.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | January 11, 2011 5:51 PM | Report abuse

Again...what actions do you think fairfax county schools will take tomorrow?

Posted by: bmxphenom50 | January 11, 2011 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Again...what actions do you think fairfax county schools will take tomorrow?

Posted by: bmxphenom50 | January 11, 2011 5:54 PM | Report abuse

Even though I detest this winter(so far)as opposed to last, I really appreciate the posts on the Weather Gang!! The intelligent, erudite and witty messages are a refreshing change from the stupid, hateful and bigoted messages found on many political and sports sites!!! Snow lovers hang in there!! Still 6 weeks to go!!!

Posted by: johnunion1 | January 11, 2011 5:57 PM | Report abuse

Light freezing drizzle in Merrifield, VA, since at least 5pm when I came out of Dunn Loring metro.

@CWG: Your coverage of this event is appreciated regardless of snow outcomes. Count me among those who enjoy learning about the mechanics of storms as they approach, even if they don't exactly hit us.

Posted by: --sg | January 11, 2011 5:59 PM | Report abuse

My driveway in Oakton is currently a sheet of ice. It may be very slick on some side streets.

Posted by: Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2011 6:03 PM | Report abuse

A new update has just been posted; let's move the discussion over there.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 11, 2011 6:03 PM | Report abuse

This has been a great winter so far...not much snow, so bring on spring!! Sorry, snow-lovers, but it's my turn to enjoy this year.

Posted by: MoCoPride | January 11, 2011 11:33 PM | Report abuse

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