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Posted at 4:00 PM ET, 01/10/2011

PM Update: Waiting on tomorrow's snow

By Ian Livingston

Lots of clouds, with only a few peeks of sun until recently, have helped keep temperatures pretty cold today. In fact, some places have not hit freezing to the west and north of D.C. with other locations barely into the mid-30s. For the most part I guess we can call this the calm before the storm. Eyes continue to focus heavily on tomorrow, and the start of snow entering the region is only about 24 hours away. Until then, no worries locally...

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: A period with more extensive breaks in the clouds is likely headed into evening, but we should cloud over again overnight. Clouds keep temperatures from falling too far, with lows in the low 20s (suburbs) to upper 20s (downtown). Winds are light.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): We're just cloudy early in the morning but snow to the south advances north into the midday. By then, flurries or light snow might be entering the region with more significant snow to the south. As we head through afternoon, general snow becomes more likely across the area, with the most likely window for accumulating snow from late afternoon through evening before tapering off overnight. Highs reach the low-and-mid 30s before snow sends temps back toward the upper 20s. For more details on the storm, see our current accumulation map, timeline and more.

See Jason Samenow's forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Southern snow: The storm system lumbering toward us has already packed quite a punch elsewhere. At least 2,000 flights have been cancelled across the South following most governors in the region declaring states of emergency as the storm began. Atlanta's airport is at a virtual standstill after 3-6" of snow fell in the area. Today's 7" of snow on the ground in Huntsville, Al. is the greatest since the Superstorm of 1993 at that location. Many other spots across the south saw one of the biggest snows in years or ever, including Tupelo, Ms. where the 6" of snow was the most in over 4 decades. In addition to heavy snow, freezing rain has been a problem across the region.

By Ian Livingston  | January 10, 2011; 4:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Snow hole? No Weather Service advisory for DC

Comments

The Weather Channel has out snow maps:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/northeast-snow-radar-updates_2010-12-17?page=3

All the DC metro is in the 1-3 inch range with higher amounts well north and well east of DC.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 10, 2011 4:15 PM | Report abuse

The Weather Channel has out snow maps:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/northeast-snow-radar-updates_2010-12-17?page=3

All the DC metro is in the 1-3 inch range with higher amounts well north and well east of DC.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 10, 2011 4:17 PM | Report abuse

It's nice that the wind no longer mugs me the second I step outside.
Tomorrow will be fun. I read somewhere it's supposed to snow.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 10, 2011 4:29 PM | Report abuse

What in heavens name is this; the weather channel is calling for 8 - 12 inches for NYC!!! Um, excuse me, but isn't it our turn to have some snow??!!

That biggie on the GFS for Jan 25 is still showing, but like Jason said, there's no use paying attention to the GFS that far out. I must admit, however, that is has been on there for several days now...

Click here to see the GFS at 360 hours...

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 4:35 PM | Report abuse

Oh, sorry the link I posted above doesn't work when you click on it.

Here it is:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_360s.gif

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 4:38 PM | Report abuse

CWG, how much stock would you guys put into the amounts here?: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/

Posted by: Dylan0513 | January 10, 2011 4:42 PM | Report abuse

FIREDRAGON47,
thanks for that "won't get fooled again" link a few threads back. man those guys were rockers. love the juxtaposition of pete and roger jumping a round acting all crazy while john stands nearly still (except for his flying-like-crazy fingers)....

weather experts,
i'm assuming 2" for falls church. what signs should we look for to tell if this storm looks like it's gonna over- or under-perform?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 10, 2011 4:42 PM | Report abuse

This winter, waiting for snow is like Waiting for Godot. We eat, sleep, converse, post comments, and wait, and wait, and wait...

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 10, 2011 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Do you think we will get a Winter Weather Advisory out of this?

Posted by: icecubedownthetoilet | January 10, 2011 4:44 PM | Report abuse

I'm trying figure out what local weather I should watch at 5pm; ABC7, NBC4, FOX5, or should I just stick with the weather channel? Or maybe I should just forget about weather completely and watch cable news...

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 4:45 PM | Report abuse

@BobMiller2:

That would be exciting, wouldn't it? Best guess: rain or snow event?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_204m.gif

Posted by: bethdb1 | January 10, 2011 4:46 PM | Report abuse

FIREDRAGON,

Yep, it is a godsend that the winds have died down.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 4:49 PM | Report abuse

Very strange to watch the IR satellite loop of the east coast. Really don't see much spin at all anywhere, even off the FL/GA coast. And the flow in general looks very progressive, west to east. Hard to believe a low will curve up the coast.

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | January 10, 2011 4:55 PM | Report abuse

Timing is awful. Just awful. Everybody will be at school and work and then have a terrible commute home. The next day we'll all have to go to work and scramble to deal with late or possibly closed schools as well as a truly ugly morning commute. Ick. Wish we were in Phillly or Boston and everything was shut down for a day by 8-12 inches of snow!

Posted by: biketraveller22 | January 10, 2011 4:57 PM | Report abuse

Anybody else see NBC4's accumulation map from their home page? Doesn't make much sense

Link to their map:

http://media.nbcwashington.com/images/428*321/2901588_WEBWX011011noon_640x480.jpg

Posted by: danuva | January 10, 2011 4:57 PM | Report abuse

CWG,

The Weather.com hour by hour forecast is showing snow starting at 3:00 AM Tuesday at 40% and continuing throughout the morning for Fredericksburg, VA. Most of the weather reports I have heard are saying not to expect anything until the afternoon. I am travelling up I-95N around 6:00 AM tomorrow morning (from Fredericksburg) and was wondering if there is any concern for accumulation by this time.

Posted by: Showmethesnow | January 10, 2011 5:01 PM | Report abuse

danuva,
that map looks like the stock accumulation map. you know, higher accumulations north and west. mixing in dc and at my house, etc...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 10, 2011 5:01 PM | Report abuse

I think I'm going to go watch ABC7 News @5. Usually when there's a big event like this, Bob Ryan AND Doug Hill come on at the same time! Despite the fact that Bob Ryan doesn't really like snow, he's a great meteorologist nonetheless. And no one, not even Topper can beat Doug Hill!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 5:06 PM | Report abuse

OK, I don't understand this. This is the second day in a row that NBC4 has had DC and even Fairfax under sleet on their newest precip/accumulation map...

ABC7's accumulation map is the complete opposite of channel 4's. Interesting...

http://www.tbd.com/blogs/weather/2011/01/tuesday-storm-update-up-to-four-inches-possible-east-of-d-c--7001.html

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 5:11 PM | Report abuse

Agree with walter that it looks like the stock accumulation map pre-2009...rather pathetic.

Posted by: rocotten | January 10, 2011 5:12 PM | Report abuse

Maybe NBC4 team expects higher ratios due to colder temps N&W... it's a little like Henry M's map: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/44192/widespread-big-daddy-of-a-storm-snow-map-update.asp

Posted by: spgass1 | January 10, 2011 5:15 PM | Report abuse

HurricaneSpud, this is about when the low was forecast to be the weakest.. it lost strength coming out of the Gulf, then it's supposed to sort of sit around until the next piece of energy comes along to pick it up. It should be rather meager for the next 12-18 hours or so.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 5:16 PM | Report abuse

Walter,

Regarding your comment about snow accumulations in Falls Church, the NWS snow accumulation maps calls for 2 - 3 across Northern VA.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 5:18 PM | Report abuse

@Dylan0513

I think it's a little overdone. This same map forecast 1-2" Saturday morning and we got 0.5". In this particular case, I don't think it's impossible, but we're going a little less if you look at our map.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 5:28 PM | Report abuse

bob,
right, that's why i'm assuming 2" for falls church. but i was wondering what are the "warning" signs of this thing over/under performing?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 10, 2011 5:36 PM | Report abuse

I think I'm going to go watch ABC7 News @5. Usually when there's a big event like this, Bob Ryan AND Doug Hill come on at the same time! Despite the fact that Bob Ryan doesn't really like snow, he's a great meteorologist nonetheless. And no one, not even Topper can beat Doug Hill!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 5:06 PM | Report abuse

Fantasy Meteorologist League :

Team Topper and Howard
Team Bob and Doug
Team Palka

Posted by: DCSportsfanatic1 | January 10, 2011 5:37 PM | Report abuse

showmethesnow, I too would like an answer to that. Seems everyone else has the precip not beginning till afternoon, so snow already falling when I head out at 6:30 AM would make a marked difference. Sure would make a pretty start to the morning.

Posted by: angelicat | January 10, 2011 5:45 PM | Report abuse

@angelicat and showmethesnow

We don't think snow will begin until afternoon. The hourly forecasts you see are generated from computers not people and can have issues.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Fantasy Meteorologist League :

Team Topper and Howard
Team Bob and Doug
Team Palka

Posted by: DCSportsfanatic1 | January 10, 2011 5:37 PM |
-----------------------------------------------
I'd have to pull for "team Bob and Doug". I have to say, though, Sue Palka is growing on me; she's always smiling and in a good mood. I think she's a snow lover too!

P.S. you left out "team Doug, Veronica and Tom". As I've said before, ch. 4 is my least favorite source for D.C. weather info.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 5:57 PM | Report abuse

I cant believe all these snow maps are sooo different from one another. ch. 4, 5, 7 and 9 all have different snow maps as does accuwx and weather.com.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 10, 2011 6:02 PM | Report abuse

Henry's Accuweather map makes no sense. His writeup says that "DC and Baltimore should squeak out 3 inches of snow" but puts both cities and their suburbs (including most of MD and Northern VA) in the 1-3" range. Meanwhile he calls for 3 to 6 inches in parts of western VA where the CWG and others say no more than one inch is likely.

Posted by: mkarns | January 10, 2011 6:10 PM | Report abuse

Bob, you said:

"That biggie on the GFS for Jan 25 is still showing, but like Jason said, there's no use paying attention to the GFS that far out. I must admit, however, that is has been on there for several days now..."

I have been making my way through the archives of 2009-2010 since I came in on the tail end of the glorious days of 2010, and did not get to read the build-up of excitement. I'm now at the January 30th snow that was the 2nd to last snow before the Super Bowl blizzard. I noticed that someone posted 3 or 4 times that there was a huge storm on the GFS that looked like over 20 inches, and that person was largely ignored, I guess because everyone was focused on the snow at hand.

CWG loads soooo slow on my computer that I don't have the stamina to go back and see who that was, but was it you? Oh, please please please say it was you then maybe that could be a glimmer of hope for the storm you have referenced twice now actually happening!

Posted by: luvhh1 | January 10, 2011 6:19 PM | Report abuse

Henry M is one of the worst meteorologists I've ever witnessed.

Posted by: bbirnbau | January 10, 2011 6:29 PM | Report abuse

This same discussion comes up every winter, where the GFS has a storm at hour 300 or some other freakish time. And every winter I tell it like it is... You know those dreams where you are running down a hall, (or some movie scene) frantically trying to reach the door at the end of the hall? And the door never gets any closer? That door is the storm on the GFS at 300+ hours. Dream on.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | January 10, 2011 6:35 PM | Report abuse

Wow nice freakin' dry slot on the NWS national watch & warning map - check out the donut from DC to Winchester...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Posted by: prickles1009 | January 10, 2011 7:46 PM | Report abuse

This just in: the Washington Post blames the winter storm on Republican hate-speech. According to Barack Obama, "The Tea Party and Sarah Palin have been disparaging global warming for years. Should we be surprised that Gaiea turned violent? We must repeal the First Amendment before another flake falls!"

Posted by: diesel_skins_ | January 11, 2011 7:52 PM | Report abuse

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