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Posted at 10:14 PM ET, 01/20/2011

Snow struggling to develop & may not

By Jason Samenow

Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

This evening's radar shows rain and snow showers breaking apart as they cross the mountains. Very few reports of precipitation can be found in the metro region although some flurries have been reported around Frederick.

The best chance of precipitation may be after midnight when low pressure begins to develop to our east, but the latest NAM model simulates an incredibly underwhelming 0.03" liquid equivalent at Reagan National Airport from this storm.

The NAM model could be under doing the amount of precipitation, but even so, there are few indications we'll see accumulating snow in metro region. Even farther north and northeast, prospects of half an inch to an inch are dubious. Howard county was removed from the Winter Weather Advisory (which remains in effect for Frederick, Carroll and Baltimore counties)

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

If we get snow, temperatures are currently in the mid-to-upper 30s due to winds from the south - so it's unlikely to stick. And as we mentioned earlier, we can't even rule out that the precipitation falls as rain in some spots.

There's a slight possibility that if we get a little precipitation late tonight and temperatures fall afterward, a few slick spots may develop. So be cautious when heading out in the morning. But for a good part of the region, odds are increasing you'll awaken to bare ground.

I'll update this post as needed in the next couple hours.

By Jason Samenow  | January 20, 2011; 10:14 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, Updates  
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Next: Forecast: Some of winter's coldest air yet

Comments

Oh well. At least we have the memories of last winter....

Posted by: batsandgates | January 20, 2011 10:49 PM | Report abuse

Ch 7 just had a reporter in the field up in Frederick; looked like they were getting some very light flurries. Bob Ryan said a few minutes ago that the radar looked "pathetic" if one is a snow lover.

Posted by: natsncats | January 20, 2011 11:06 PM | Report abuse

BUMMED! I was hoping for even close to an inch. My daughter wore her PJ's backwards and inside out tonight. I know she's hoping for at least a 2hr delay...oh well! lol!

Posted by: lisajulia | January 20, 2011 11:06 PM | Report abuse

Not only do we have those memories, but I believe we'll have plenty more when this winter is done. In the meantime, not a flake to be seen in Dupont. More interested in what's going to happen on Tuesday, now :~\

Posted by: mlipin | January 20, 2011 11:09 PM | Report abuse

OK..Im throwing in the towel for this one..actaually I gave up hope when i saw the afternoon update. Any hopes for next Monday?tuesday event?

Meanwhile im gonna take the family over to massasnuttin for some sleding this saterday. There reports show a pretty decent snowpak over there at the resort.

Im keeping my fingers crossed. at least it seems we have had a chance for some snow or ice almost weekly here lately. Hope Tues may be the lucky day.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 20, 2011 11:11 PM | Report abuse

@natsncats

I agree with Bob- this is pathetic. Notice I used "incredibly underwhelming" in my post above. While we forecast the possibility of just a trace of snow, this may be a pretty big bust around Baltimore, Philly and even farther NE where models have backed off on amounts big time.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 20, 2011 11:13 PM | Report abuse

After a hi temp of 37.9, it's currently 31.1 in the mountains east of Front Royal. So far, I've only seen a few flakes.

Posted by: spgass1 | January 20, 2011 11:14 PM | Report abuse

Also i asked thos on the last post but didnt get answered. Is there anywhere to get models or maps of the big storms from last year? i would like to see how those evolved and the differences with thes piddly storms we have this year.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 20, 2011 11:17 PM | Report abuse

@Jason -- actually, pathetic and incredibly underwhelming are both fine with me! ;-)

Posted by: natsncats | January 20, 2011 11:19 PM | Report abuse

@Brad

I did answer your question in the last post just a couple minutes ago. Go back and check.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 20, 2011 11:20 PM | Report abuse

In the words (paraphrasing) of the penguins in Madagascar:
Well, this sucks!

Posted by: weathergrrl | January 20, 2011 11:21 PM | Report abuse

My mouse for my laptop is messin up..sorry for the mutiple post everyone.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 20, 2011 11:23 PM | Report abuse

Brad, I'm not aware of any archived model data on the web, but you can look up radar images by day here: http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?WWNEXRAD~Images2

Posted by: spgass1 | January 20, 2011 11:25 PM | Report abuse

I think a lot of people in the Philly/NY/Boston corridor wouldn't mind a snow bust. At least then local snowlovers will largely be spared snow envy, in contrast to Dec. 26 (ugh).

Posted by: mkarns | January 20, 2011 11:27 PM | Report abuse

Wow the 0z GFS brings a ton of qpf to the area next week. If that run verified it wouldn't all be snow, but still, wow.

Posted by: Dylan0513 | January 20, 2011 11:31 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Jason. I will research that.

Im courious on the " Perfect setup for snow in this region"

My best uneducated guess would be..

Cold air already in place..cold ground...Low comes up the coast but is strong and swirls and rotates over the area for a long period of time with several heavy intense bands that flow the the entire Dc area.

Am i close..lol back home in SC we ALWAYS get our best snows when the moisture comes up from Atlanta and we ALREADy have Cold air in place...When it comes over the mountain of NC..we get Nada or a dusting.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 20, 2011 11:34 PM | Report abuse

Light snow in Eldersburg. Started about 10 minutes ago.

Posted by: DLO1975 | January 20, 2011 11:41 PM | Report abuse

WOW thanks for the post..if i looked at the site right..DEC 19-20 of 2009 had snow all over the place here..that was a huge low that came through here!! I remeber that! It came right up the coast and dumped right on us.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 20, 2011 11:46 PM | Report abuse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Zf5D0UxdMc

remeber last year..ahhh the memories

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 20, 2011 11:50 PM | Report abuse

Quick comment. Hat's off to the Weather Gang. They don't hype the weather as some TV weatherpersons do. They are willing to change their forecasts - even admit weather forecasting is partly an art (well, at least that's my comment.). I trust the Weather Gang. More than I can say for Metrorail. :-)

Posted by: dezlboy1 | January 20, 2011 11:52 PM | Report abuse

CWG is pretty dang good!!!

ALOT of newscast around here seem to add alot of accumulation 3 days out..then the dreaded drop off as the storm grows near..at least CWG stays pretty darn consistant.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 21, 2011 12:00 AM | Report abuse

Snow flakes beginning to fall in Centreville, VA (WUSA9 radar show rain, but it is snowing).

Posted by: oriolesfan2323 | January 21, 2011 12:21 AM | Report abuse

i searched the archives and read about " the evolution of a snow storm" that hit DC on 19-20 of dec 2009...man that was a HUGE LOW that came up from the carolinas...and dumped a ton of snow..no chance of that this year i bet..............

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 21, 2011 12:28 AM | Report abuse

Another bust...follows the much-unneeded rain pattern...no snow or ice unless it can interfere with one of my dances!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 21, 2011 12:33 AM | Report abuse

Yes, the latest GFS shows the storm of the decade coming up the coast on Wednesday, but the ECMWF shows a weaker and faster moving storm. If only we could get the two to agree on something in between...like a reasonable one foot dump of the white stuff...

Posted by: Ayrwulf | January 21, 2011 12:39 AM | Report abuse

Snowing in NW Columbia/S. Ellicott City now :-)

Posted by: Kellygirl75 | January 21, 2011 12:43 AM | Report abuse

bbirnbau, awesome post from the last thread! irascible?? I love how the CWG regulars never fail to entertain and now even get us to dust off the dictionary!

...In other news, I was tempted to stop for TP on the way home, but somehow had less of an urge to go without the white stuff coming down :'(

Posted by: kolya02 | January 21, 2011 12:46 AM | Report abuse

Oh yes, and the Canadian model also shows a massive (rain/snow?) storm on Wednesday, but only a fool would trust the Canadians to accurately predict anything but hockey scores.

Posted by: Ayrwulf | January 21, 2011 12:47 AM | Report abuse

European shows a huge storm, but snow to rain. Over 2" liquid equivalent.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 21, 2011 1:30 AM | Report abuse

it's snowing about 15 mins now in Fairfax, start sticking on the ground

Posted by: Fairfax-Snow | January 21, 2011 1:55 AM | Report abuse

i just looked at thre Euro..has us getting at least a foot of snow..then turning to rain..im still learning the models so i may be wrong..it would be a helluva storm if its correct..

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 21, 2011 2:18 AM | Report abuse

Brad stomps and sacrifices his sons toys to the snow gods for next weeks storm..LOL!!!

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 21, 2011 2:22 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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