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Posted at 2:20 AM ET, 01/26/2011

State of the snowstorm: Precip moves in...

By Jason Samenow

Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

3:30 a.m.: Is the National Weather Service asleep at the wheel? Many of their zone forecasts for the region indicate rain overnight (even right now) when it's snowing outside. We're getting reports of snow sticking to roads in parts of the region, and yet they haven't issued any kind of short term forecast product to alert folks. It was abundantly clear from the 0z forecast temperature profiles that the precipitation would start as snow or a snow/sleet mix. I'm also thinking they've taken more time than necessary to make the decision about upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning.

2:00 a.m. update: Folks who are awake are noticing precipitation break out across the region. Seeing reports of light snow, mixed with rain and sleet to the south. A sloppy inch is possible in spots by morning with snow most easily accumulating north and west of town. For the model watchers, the European model shows a very similar evolution to the others and supports our forecast posted earlier.

From earlier: (originally posted at 11:20 p.m.) for the next two hours (from about 9:20-11:20 p.m.), I'm going to post short updates every 30 minutes or so on the forecast models coming in. If you're interested in just Capital Weather Gang's forecast, visit our post with our snow accumulation map, timeline, impact forecasts and frequent questions.

11:20 update: I'm going to take a break for a while now but, but like Wes says below, I think our forecast/timeline posted earlier is in decent shape. The one thing we may have underplayed is the likelihood of some snow toward morning - maybe a coating to an inch or so - which could impact schools especially west of the District. Our SchoolCast earlier was focused on Thursday but I'd have to give a 30-40% chance of some delays and even preemptive closings in our west and southwest suburbs (factoring in not only the morning snow, but deteriorating conditions after 2 p.m.).

That's all for now. Around 1:15 a.m., I may be back on to post a quick update on the Euro model.

11:10 p.m. update: I asked Wes Junker, our Winter Weather Expert to sum up his thoughts on tonight's models. Here's what he has to say:

"The latest models (Regional Canadian model, NAM and GFS) continue to be in strong agreement that a potent upper level system will be taking a favorable track to produce heavy snow over the Washington metro area. All are forecasting between .85 and 1.2 inches of liquid equivalent. West of the city (outside the beltway) most of that will probably be in the form of snow. During the afternoon hours the precipitation should change to snow from west to east across the entire metro area. There still looks like there is potential for thundersnow and heavy snow during the height of the storm. Our earlier forecast snowfall amounts still look good. As we said before, there is potential for a few locations to exceed the upper end of the ranges where banding occurs and if convection (thundersnow) does indeed occur."

Keep reading for earlier updates...

11:00 p.m. update: After going nuts with the precipitation between 4 and 7 p.m., the GFS only produces another 0.12" of liquid equivalent snow after that, indicating the storm could end as soon as 10 p.m. It's a little faster than the other models. The GFS simulates 1.0" liquid equivalent at National Airport (probably around 60% snow) for the storm and 0.94" at Dulles (probably 90% snow) - map.

10:55 p.m. update: Somewhat incredibly, the GFS simulates 0.64" liquid equivalent in the six hours between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. tomorrow - with most of that between 4 and 7 p.m. as the precipitation is going over to all snow. Rush hour could be really, really ugly. An astute commenter - Steve-wxtalkwordpresscom - noted that as of 10 p.m. it was already down to 36 degrees at Reagan National with a wind from the northeast and a dewpoint of 25. Do not at all be surprised to awaken to snow and a little even on the ground tomorrow morning. Most spots will fall to near or below freezing overnight.

10:45 p.m. update: The GFS supports the idea that around the city, the changeover time from a late morning to early afternoon rain/sleet/snow mix to all snow is between 3 and 4 p.m. The model - like the NAM and SREF - really dumps on us between about 5 and 9 p.m.

10:40 p.m. update: GFS is out through 10 a.m. tomorrow and supports the idea of some snow breaking out before dawn across the metro region with a dusting to an inch possible - which would mainly be on grassy areas around the city and to the southeast. During the morning, snow probably mixes with and changes to sleet and/or rain south and east of eastern Loudoun and western Montgomery county.

10:30 p.m. update: The Canadian (RGEM) model shows more than 1.0 liquid equivalent at Reagan National and Dulles. Some of that is probably rain at National with maybe just a little rain at Dulles.

10:20 p.m. update: Want to know when the heaviest snow may occur? The SREF model indicates probably around 7 p.m. (0z) Wed. when it gives a 50-70% probability of snowfall rates of 1" or more per hour.

9:50 p.m. update: I didn't mention the Short Range Ensemble Forecast model which came out slightly before the NAM. It indicates about 5-7". Both the NAM and SREF continue to show a very favorable track for the upper level disturbance for snow.

9:35 p.m. update: NAM's simulated radar for 7 p.m. tomorrow night is pretty impressive. That's all snow. What you're seeing there is the formation of comma head feature on the surface cyclone (low pressure) off the coast as it develops due to interaction with the intense upper level disturbance.

9:30 p.m. update: Some more on the NAM - At Dulles, it spits out 0.87", with a higher percentage of that all snow. In fact, Dulles could stay at snow for the duration of the event if the NAM is right - although some mixing could occur in the morning. Interestingly, the NAM also suggests the Reagan might start as snow (before mixing with sleet and rain later in the morning) with temperatures near freezing early in the morning...so it may well be snowing when you get up - even in D.C. Might that have implications for schools???

9:20 p.m. update: The latest NAM model is out and shows a tiny bit less precipitation than the afternoon run...but still about 0.88" liquid equivalent at Reagan National. Some of that - especially during morning hours may be a mix of snow, sleet and rain. The changeover time to all snow looks to occur in the late afternoon. Probably at least 0.5" of the 0.88" is all snow... so it's in line with our forecast (of 3-6") assuming a conversion of 10" of snow for every 1" of rain.

By Jason Samenow  | January 26, 2011; 2:20 AM ET
Categories:  Latest, Updates, Winter Storms  
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Next: Winter storm warning issued for N & W suburbs

Comments

Excellent! Already warming up those snowball-throwing muscles for the showdown in Dupont tomorrow night. Want to cut down on those errant projectiles as much as possible. Need to maximize efficiency.

Posted by: mlipin | January 25, 2011 9:29 PM | Report abuse

CWG -

When is the NWS planning to upgrade the area to a WARNING if we fit the criteria.....

I'm a bit confused 0.88 liquid is equal to how much in snow or your saying 0.50 liquid will equal to the snow we get??

According to the NAM?

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 9:30 PM | Report abuse

SECOND- NO SCHOOL BABY!

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 25, 2011 9:30 PM | Report abuse

WHOO HOO!! Live blogging! Now I know I'll never get to bed at a decent hour.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 25, 2011 9:31 PM | Report abuse

If I work in Bethesda and live in Manassas, what time do you think I should leave work tomorrow afternoon in order to avoid a hellish commute?

Posted by: aaf314 | January 25, 2011 9:31 PM | Report abuse

sorry for the newbie question but .5 liquid precipitation would be roughly 6 inches of snow at DCA?

Posted by: matthewyoungblood | January 25, 2011 9:32 PM | Report abuse

The state of our snowunion is strong!

Posted by: JDK4 | January 25, 2011 9:36 PM | Report abuse

I have been looking to this website for a few years now for information and i just now got a user name. I have learned so much from this site and can't thank you guys enough! I still have a lot to learn and wanted to know if somebody could explain the "mb's" and how they play a factor in the forecast.

Thanks
Nate

Posted by: NATE-IN-LAUREL | January 25, 2011 9:36 PM | Report abuse

The simulated radar looks very wet.
I love it. Bring on the thumper.

Still in Seattle? How nice of you to make time for the flake fans this evening.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 25, 2011 9:37 PM | Report abuse

the general ratio is 10to1, but as this is likely to a "wet snow" you can call it 9 to 1 sooooo.. .5= roughly 4.5" of snow!

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 25, 2011 9:37 PM | Report abuse

here's the full usa radar. pan over to our area. our moisture is in kentucky/tennessee now.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_lite_loop.php

0z NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p24_030m.gif

still really nice.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 25, 2011 9:41 PM | Report abuse

af314,

isnt it always a hellish commute? :))))

Posted by: VEIK | January 25, 2011 9:41 PM | Report abuse

I wouldn't want to be commuting tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 9:43 PM | Report abuse

I for one like the new NAM. 0.87" at Dulles and all/mostly snow is good news for me as I live near there. I predict I will pick up 6.375" on my deck.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 25, 2011 9:44 PM | Report abuse

@VEIK

Yes, but after awhile, you just get used to it....

So are you saying I should head out no later than like noon? Either that or it might be a good day to be "sick."

Posted by: aaf314 | January 25, 2011 9:47 PM | Report abuse

Bye bye snowluver, nice knowing 'ya!

Posted by: JDK4 | January 25, 2011 9:47 PM | Report abuse

LONG LIVE SNOWLUVER!!!


YOU CANT BAN ME!!!

I WILL BE HERE FOREVER IN SPIRIT!!!!

LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | January 25, 2011 9:49 PM | Report abuse

@ snowlover

did you do the murphy hw?

Posted by: SNOWHATERRR | January 25, 2011 9:49 PM | Report abuse

Just went through my videos of snow and found that I had 3 for undercasting of snow in Charles County. My dates are messed up but I believe the last video was made in March 2009 when we were forecast for 3 inches. Don't know how many it turned out to be but it certainly looked like at least 7 or 8 from the video, and it was still snowing heavily.

Anyway, I wonder if I'll be doing a "Charles County undercasting" video tomorrow. Sure hope so!

P.S. CWG -- this is not a criticism of your forecasting at all. You guys are greater than great! I'm mainly saying that Charles County generally seems to be underforecast in most snow events.

Posted by: luvhh | January 25, 2011 9:51 PM | Report abuse

CWG-

Please tell me if this is a sane thought- At this point, it seems the overall scenario is pretty well agreed upon, so I won't place too much emphasis on small changes in overall QPF (provided it's within reaosn) either larger or smaller. I don't expect a model to predict with that level of precision how much falls in my back yard when convection is in play. There will be snow, somewhere in the .75 - 1.25 range, and it will be convective in nature at some point. Exciting stuff!

1st and last time I weigh in on this- SNOWLUVER doesn't need to have a post or two deleted, please ban this person's IP address from this site if possible. Don't care one iota about childish posts about how super cool snow is (afterall, it is cool), but name calling to that level of hurtfulness has NO business on such a friendly, informative, and popular website.

Posted by: 4seamed | January 25, 2011 9:52 PM | Report abuse

4 seamed.... right on

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 25, 2011 9:54 PM | Report abuse

Jason, what's the liquid equivalent for BWI?

Posted by: allagar | January 25, 2011 9:55 PM | Report abuse

@snowluver
thank u for delaying cwg updates by making them dedicate time to mediate this blog, this blog is for immature adults and mature kids, not immature kids. the people u named create alot of the spirit for this blog. so u won't live on

Posted by: vtjudyz | January 25, 2011 9:56 PM | Report abuse

Jason: thanks so much once again for taking time to do this live-blogging for us. I can't tell you how much I appreciate your hard work!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 25, 2011 9:58 PM | Report abuse

I'm gonna let the HATERS hate. Bring it on yall. bring it. BAn my IP adress. i got 10 more computers to use and 10 more emails to make new accounts to terrorize you "adults". You guys are immature. YOU GET EXCITED OVER SNOW WHEN U ARE GROWN MEN AND WOMEN. THATS NOT NORMAL!!! get a life yall. nahh mean. ban me. please do it. who cares about the weather anyways. weather is for people who didnt make jv soccer in highschool!

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | January 25, 2011 10:03 PM | Report abuse

@SNOWLUVER,

Go Ahead, Switch The Style Up And If They Hate Then Let 'Em Hate And Watch The Money Pile Up.

Posted by: snydercash4clunkers | January 25, 2011 10:04 PM | Report abuse

Yes, thank you for liveblogging!

Perhaps you could institute a community moderator from the forumposters.

There seem to be a few regulars here that post very often and may make good candidates (not me though! I only visit in the evening)

Just a thought. Again, thank you to the team for your dedication.

Posted by: celt1 | January 25, 2011 10:05 PM | Report abuse

@aaf314-- The obnoxious, smarty pants answer to you would be "Friday", but in all sincerity I'd consider teleworking tomorrow if you can. If not, I'd get out absolutely no later than 11:30am, or take a day of "leave" (wink wink, nudge, nudge).

Safety first. Best of luck to you (and everyone else) in your decisions to commute/not commute tomorrow!

Posted by: southbridgemom | January 25, 2011 10:06 PM | Report abuse

I've been trolling this website since I moved here from South Florida almost two years ago. I thought all DC winters were like last year, as I had never seen snow before... It's pretty until you have to drive through or shovel it, but it's worth it!!!

Your team has been a valuable resource to us "snow lovers", especially those of us that still enjoy the novelty of snow with our kids and pets. One thing I have learned is that Accuweather and TWC have no clue about DC weather, or even Penn State weather!

Thank you for all of your hard work for us!

Posted by: CaKeOrDeAtH | January 25, 2011 10:07 PM | Report abuse

at this time i formally request that all readers proceed to discontinue the talk about snowluver, it need not be mentioned. let him rant, i don't care how much flak i take for this article from him, somebody has to say stop, and i don't it to take away time from this GREAT live blog they've got happening.

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 25, 2011 10:08 PM | Report abuse

Adding my continued thanks to Jason and the entire CWG for keeping us all in the loop!

I admit I have a love/hate relationship with snow; if I don't have to work, it's great! But as a 911/fire/EMS dispatcher, sorry to say it's a royal pain whenever it snows. Just my opinion, your mileage may vary. Yeah, I have to work the next two days!

Posted by: natsncats | January 25, 2011 10:09 PM | Report abuse

The regional canadian model looks a little wetter than the 00Z nam, looks like it has over an inch over the dc area.

Posted by: wjunker | January 25, 2011 10:20 PM | Report abuse

Can we please discuss the newest snowfall forecasts?

Snowluver, give it a rest. "Threatening to 'terrorize' us" via 1 of 10 IP address manipulation or masking or via the Internet is a felony. A real felony, even for a minor, which you obviously are. I suggest you turn it down a notch or the Washington Post can choose to prosecute you. This isn't merely a message board, but they are a publishing company with very well-paid lawyers on retainer.

Are we still looking at 3-6" surrounding DC, or could we see more?

Posted by: CaKeOrDeAtH | January 25, 2011 10:24 PM | Report abuse

If you ignore snowluver they might go away. Doubtful, but more likely than if continued attention is thrown their way.

Posted by: CYork1 | January 25, 2011 10:25 PM | Report abuse

CWG you guys are killing it tonight! Will be driving to meetings during AM rush & returning to DC hopefully before 7, I'm glad I know what to expect! Thanks for all your hard work!

Posted by: visualglamour | January 25, 2011 10:25 PM | Report abuse

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=bwi&endDate=20110124&endTime=-1&duration=0

Sfc obs show light-to-moderate rain moving into southern VA. NE winds and cooling temps are seen in the DC metro area. DCA already down to 36 after topping out at 46 this afternoon.

Posted by: Steve-wxtalkwordpresscom | January 25, 2011 10:25 PM | Report abuse

SNOWLUVER: I'd like to respectfully ask you to stay on topic if you wish to continue commenting and be respectful of other commenters. Also, be careful about overcommenting. Thanks.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 10:27 PM | Report abuse

any chance this moves to a winter storm warning tonight or tomorrow at sometime?

Posted by: jrodfoo | January 25, 2011 10:28 PM | Report abuse

32 degrees here in the Aquasco/Brandywine sections of PG county.

I'm surprised by how cold it is already - was it supposed to get cold this quickly, or will temperatures rise at the onset of precip??

CWG, thanks for all you do!

Posted by: NickG32 | January 25, 2011 10:31 PM | Report abuse

CWG

How the does the GFS looking, been hearing the storm tracking a bit west track then expected, Does this mean more snow for the area??

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 10:33 PM | Report abuse

I know this is a lot to ask at this busy time, but I believe the post from SNOWLUVER @9:45 is a violation of the site's terms of use and should be deleted. Thanks very much.

Posted by: natsncats | January 25, 2011 10:38 PM | Report abuse

CWG

Are you going to update the timeline with the morning post?

Posted by: aaf314 | January 25, 2011 10:39 PM | Report abuse

natsncats...I was about to say the same thing.
Thanks, CWG!

Posted by: kathyb39 | January 25, 2011 10:39 PM | Report abuse

Sue Palka has finally changed her tune. Her "in house" model has snapped to--"significant accumulation".

Posted by: Louise9 | January 25, 2011 10:39 PM | Report abuse

Well, I'm going to love driving home in the middle of this tomorrow. Snowlover's happy hour instead?

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 10:40 PM | Report abuse

Still no winter storm warning? Are they waiting for the GFS?

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 25, 2011 10:41 PM | Report abuse

kathyb39

:-)

Posted by: natsncats | January 25, 2011 10:41 PM | Report abuse

I agree with Natsncats. It's offensive to every member of this community

Posted by: JDK4 | January 25, 2011 10:41 PM | Report abuse

I agree with natsncats about the post in question. It's a very clear violation and needs to be deleted.

Posted by: allagar | January 25, 2011 10:41 PM | Report abuse

Fox 5 is on...

Change to snow around rush hour. Could have 1-2 hours of 1-2 inches of snow. accumulations to come later in the forecast. Should wrap up by 11:00 PM tomorrow night.

Posted by: Showmethesnow | January 25, 2011 10:42 PM | Report abuse

Welcome to the big time, CWG. Jeff Masters has to deal with the nonsense 24/7 on his blog when storms come up. It just means that you worked really hard and that a lot of people are starting to recognize it.

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 25, 2011 10:42 PM | Report abuse

CWG- Is the NWS going to wait until tomorrow warning to issue a winter storm warning?

Posted by: cubscapsfan | January 25, 2011 10:42 PM | Report abuse

Sue Palka and FOX5 now seeing in there model so called "In House" shows the heavier snow.... Sue Palka states NWS will more likely expand the Warning into the District, but NWS is just waiting for a few runs before making the call.... Remember the Christmas Storm :)

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | January 25, 2011 10:43 PM | Report abuse

@Brian

I'll be sloggin' home right along with you, our shift doesn't end until 7 PM. Good thing I have a relatively short commute and a Subaru!

Posted by: natsncats | January 25, 2011 10:43 PM | Report abuse

I know this is a lot to ask at this busy time, but I believe the post from SNOWLUVER @9:45 is a violation of the site's terms of use and should be deleted. Thanks very much.
Posted by: natsncats | January 25, 2011 10:38 PM | Report abuse
----------------------------------------------
It most certainly was a violation and it is very offensive in my opinion.

Thanks,
Bob

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 25, 2011 10:45 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for all of the hard work in getting ths forecast nailed down. I have the snowblower gassed up and ready to go tomorrow night!

Posted by: Goaltender66 | January 25, 2011 10:46 PM | Report abuse

Would everyone stop crying about one post? The 20 replies whining about it is much more disruptive than the actual post itself. Stay on topic.

Posted by: LoudounSouth | January 25, 2011 10:47 PM | Report abuse

What are the chances MoCo and PG Schools will be closed tomorrow with the new data that the storm may start as snow?

Posted by: CYork1 | January 25, 2011 10:49 PM | Report abuse

I've been a long time follower of CWG with limited comments. But I have to chime in now and ask that CWG please ban, or delete SNOWLuVER's recent comment. It is clearly an intentional violation and is ruining the spirit and purpose of this blog. Thanks!

Posted by: schrute | January 25, 2011 10:51 PM | Report abuse

On local radar it looks as if the first batch of moisture will be moving in maybe midnight? Or is that just virga?
Turning in feeling fairly confident we'll have accumulating snow tomorrow. Amazing.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 25, 2011 10:51 PM | Report abuse

I've lived in the D.C. area for about 20 years and remember the pre-CWG days when I had to rely on local radio and TV stations. Their forecasts were frequently wrong, often comically so. Thanks to CWG for finally providing the residents of this area with sober, reliable forecasting that we can actually use to plan ahead for these storms.

Posted by: AdrianMole | January 25, 2011 10:52 PM | Report abuse

89-years ago this Thursday, 28-inches of snow in DC. 45-years ago this Friday, 13.8 inches of snow in DC. January 26, 2011 ???

Posted by: shenvalley | January 25, 2011 10:52 PM | Report abuse

aaf314, my answer about your commute is a general anecdote (since I can't forecast tomorrow's weather better than anyone else). The worst driving in my 30+ years in New England and around here is the heavy wet variety. If it is hard enough to overcome the melting, then that creates a packed surface plus slush. It is one of the most unpredictable surfaces to drive on. A big part of the problem is it is harder to plow and the plows can't keep up and they won't keep up if traffic is stopped.

Posted by: eric654 | January 25, 2011 10:56 PM | Report abuse

One of the joys of being an amatuer is that sometimes you are right and no one yells at you if you are wrong. If it can be cold enough out 95 way, someone near the bay is going to get a lot of snow out of some of the bands, remember thundersnow in Ellicott City in 87 and Catonsville in 99. Amazing occurrence. 3 inches an hour. Send one north.
_______________________________________

CWG: This one has your zonal forcast written all over it. Look forward to it.

My fun shorthand: Zone 3 7-10

Zone 2 5-7

Zone 1 2-5

Got to play in the sleet. On the board, look forward to your thoughts.

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 24, 2011 11:07 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 25, 2011 10:56 PM | Report abuse

Hahahahahahahahahahahaga you guys are all acting like a bunch of little girls.... How you guys grow a pair and stop acting like little girls..... Plus the latest run is only calling for -2 to -3 inches.... Were not even going to get any snow

Posted by: joshwarhawk | January 25, 2011 10:57 PM | Report abuse

Tuning in to get Hill and Ryan's take on the storm and see whether their forecast generally goes along with CWG...

Posted by: natsncats | January 25, 2011 10:59 PM | Report abuse

6+ ABC 7 says...

Posted by: jrodfoo | January 25, 2011 11:02 PM | Report abuse

Snowblower question. My street just purchased a pretty substaintial shared snowblower. About how long does a gallon of gas last? How many houses? I know, hard to even quantify the question!

Posted by: dezlboy1 | January 25, 2011 11:02 PM | Report abuse

CWG, thank you for all you do. You make it much easier on me as far as getting my plow equipment ready. I base my movements on your forcast. Our operation is alittle bigger than you would believe but thank you for all you do. If you ever need help moving please feel free to ask. Many truck are out. Thanks

Posted by: dannythe357 | January 25, 2011 11:08 PM | Report abuse

So the CWG guys can do their job, I propose that they make @BobMiller2 the board moderator since he is on here 24/7 anyways. The only caveat is that he can only delete posts and not respond to them :)

Posted by: Showmethesnow | January 25, 2011 11:08 PM | Report abuse

CWG is the only team of forecasters in the DC area with the courage to step into the spotlight and sing the snow song. All of the others have been hiding behind words like "complex" and "unpredictable." They sound like John Madden giving us the obvious..."depending on the storm track we could get more or less." CWG has provided modern technological insight into this winter storm and given the public a clearer snapshot of what to expect.

Posted by: shenvalley | January 25, 2011 11:09 PM | Report abuse

Snowblower question. My street just purchased a pretty substaintial shared snowblower. About how long does a gallon of gas last? How many houses? I know, hard to even quantify the question!

Posted by: dezlboy1 | January 25, 2011 11:10 PM | Report abuse

@dezlboy1- we have a big snowblower from Sears (for comparison) and we pooled gas from three neighbors equivalent to under 15 gallons and it did many houses and a lot of sidewalk during Snowmaggedon and Snowpocalypse last year. I think one gas container never was touched. Good investment!

Posted by: kat16 | January 25, 2011 11:12 PM | Report abuse

At this point, I'm just going to assume that Fairfax County Public Schools will have an early dismissal tomorrow. With all this talk about how the afternoon/evening commute will be nightmarish, it would just be plain irresponsible for them to have a full day. So I'm just going to blow off studying for my chem midterm!

Posted by: tombeek31 | January 25, 2011 11:14 PM | Report abuse

dezlboy1: get some more fuel. Without the specs, can't give exacts, but if you all are going to use it, you'll burn through more than that. Make sure you don't burn it up, if it hasn't been broken in. Give the beast some rests to cool it down, check out the oil, before and during use. Have to get deisel myself am.

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 25, 2011 11:15 PM | Report abuse

What are the chances that FCPS schools close tomorrow?

Posted by: SnowDreamer | January 25, 2011 11:15 PM | Report abuse

Tornado snob warning issued for DC.

Posted by: RJ16 | January 25, 2011 11:15 PM | Report abuse

dezlboy1, I believe a snow blower's fuel efficiency is directly proportionate to the workload. Just as an automobile would use more fuel hauling a load of wood up a mountain a snow blower would use more fuel clearing a deeper path of snow. I would recommend executing your snow blowing tasks in two phases depending on snow depth.

Posted by: shenvalley | January 25, 2011 11:16 PM | Report abuse

Kat. Thanks (and excuse the extra post). And to CWG - you guys rock!

Posted by: dezlboy1 | January 25, 2011 11:16 PM | Report abuse

CWG-
What about schools tomorrow morning??? It will be a difficult call, no????? I live in Loudoun, west of Leesburg at a slight elevation, hills, steep driveways, everything you don't want to be driving on in bad weather....

Posted by: moo1 | January 25, 2011 11:16 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for all the updates, CWG!

My 2:30 Delta shuttle from LGA to DCA has been cancelled for tomorrow. Guess it's starting already...

Posted by: Buffalogrrl | January 25, 2011 11:17 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the info at your 11 PM update. Hope the snow does start to wind down by then; I'll go back out and clean my car off before I go to bed so I don't have to do it Thursday AM!

Posted by: natsncats | January 25, 2011 11:18 PM | Report abuse

Shenvalley: exactly. Do it in shifts. While I hated plowing in those storms last winter, I was clear and it didn't overwhelm my tractor. Got real cold, though.

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 25, 2011 11:19 PM | Report abuse

Gooddogs, I do the shovel method and last year I did the Super Bowl storm in about six shifts...I even missed The Who at halftime

Posted by: shenvalley | January 25, 2011 11:23 PM | Report abuse

kammerer says morning rush no problem, tho possibly some snow that wont be sticking to the road surfaces...he has DC at 4-5 inches of accumulation, south and east 2-4, north and west i think he had 4-8. he also said he was surprised some of the western counties were not in a winter storm warning yet.

Posted by: apeirond | January 25, 2011 11:23 PM | Report abuse

To everyone with snowblower advice. Thanks!

Posted by: dezlboy1 | January 25, 2011 11:25 PM | Report abuse

My goodness - I finally have a chance to catch up with the action and see some of the more "interesting" posters have come out in full force this evening. Fascinating.

Walked home from a friend's (Centreville) a little after 9pm, and it just didn't feel like snow at all. So, I'm very curious to see how this all plays out tomorrow. And lately it seems the precip has started, when we've gotten it, well before the expected times, but I may have just been imagining that.

Hope the wet, heavy snow doesn't cause too many headaches for folks.

Posted by: bobosnow | January 25, 2011 11:25 PM | Report abuse

The effort is greatly appreciated Jason. Thanks!

Posted by: PoorTeacher | January 25, 2011 11:26 PM | Report abuse

Shenvalley: Oh, the pain. remember doing the roof and the decks before the last one. Thank god #4 didn't pan out or we were toast. Lived on coffee, liquid advil and a lot of muscle relexant adult beverages.

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 25, 2011 11:26 PM | Report abuse

Gooddogs, I do the shovel method and last year I did the Super Bowl storm in about six shifts...I even missed The Who at halftime

Posted by: shenvalley | January 25, 2011 11:27 PM | Report abuse

@Jason at your 11:15 update --

Enjoy your well deserved break, and endless thanks from your loyal community here!

Posted by: natsncats | January 25, 2011 11:31 PM | Report abuse

they are talking about DC snow from last year on TWC

Posted by: jrodfoo | January 25, 2011 11:33 PM | Report abuse

Gooddogs, a few more years and I'll be paying the neighbor kids to do the big ones

Posted by: shenvalley | January 25, 2011 11:34 PM | Report abuse

And dont try to shovel it all at once. My brother's wife has a strict 20 min max of shoveling without a break. Makes sense.

Posted by: dezlboy1 | January 25, 2011 11:36 PM | Report abuse

Great job as usual, guys, you are our Weather superheros. Time to rest before the fun.

Posted by: Gooddogs | January 25, 2011 11:36 PM | Report abuse

Well it's about bloody time.

Posted by: nlcaldwell | January 25, 2011 11:36 PM | Report abuse

Topper Shutt calls for 8.9" here in Gaithersburg, the most of any spot. Leesburg is just behind with 8.7" in his forecast.

He ranks it a 5-"legitimate storm" on his bread-loaf scale, with 1 loaf being a nuisance snow, 3 being plowable/sleddable, and 10 being "Feb. 2010-Run For Your Lives."

Posted by: mkarns | January 25, 2011 11:37 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the nice feedback all. It was fun. I'm going to take a much needed break but feel free to respectfully converse with each other. Not sure who else from the Gang may or may not be online to answer questions, but I'll be back online briefly between 1 and 1:30 a.m.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2011 11:40 PM | Report abuse

To the poster who works in the emergency call center (@Natsncats, I believe?), thank you for all you do, and please be safe in your travels to/from work.

To Jason, Ian, Camden, Wes, and everyone else, THANKS and Bless you for all you do!! You make this Mom's life much easier.

I tell my guys at work (I'm one of 2 female analysts in my office) that I have my own personal weather team, and they have my back. These guys come to ME for weather advice. You gotta love it! :)

Sleep well guys!

Posted by: southbridgemom | January 25, 2011 11:47 PM | Report abuse

What Jason says about the heavy bands of thunder snow being hard to forecast is very true. Any area that experiences these burtst of 2-inch per hour rates will receive the highest totals. I doubt Gaithersburg will be in that area. Your highest totals will likely be atop the Blue Ridge, Massanutten, and Alleghenies. The question is who is going to hike to the top of Old Rag with a yard stick?

Posted by: shenvalley | January 25, 2011 11:47 PM | Report abuse

CWG. No breaks. Don't be that gang that takes breaks. Let's do this.

Posted by: RJ16 | January 25, 2011 11:50 PM | Report abuse

*waving at southbridgemom* Thanks! You be safe, too.

Everyone else, please be safe out there tomorrow and don't take any unnecessary risks. We at your local police and fire departments will be there no matter what, so call us if you need us.

Good night!

Posted by: natsncats | January 25, 2011 11:51 PM | Report abuse

When I clicked on this column, its title was "It looks like we won't get missed by this storm." I assume that newspapers try to save as many words as possible to conserve space. I've noticed that newspapers use the "passive voice" a lot, which wastes a lot of space. Why not title this column "This storm won't miss us" (because *what* looks like...? or "This storm will hit us," which makes more sense) and save five words? Five words, just in one title! Imagine if editors eliminated all passive voice out of the columns they edit!

Posted by: DreA3 | January 25, 2011 11:56 PM | Report abuse

Temp now 40.1 here in NW Spotsy. went up 1 degree in last hr. Going to take a long time b4 I see snow tomorrow.
Time for bed.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 26, 2011 12:17 AM | Report abuse

I just want to say I love the CWG blog so much! I find this morning "underplayed" mini-pre-storm-snowfall fascinating. Bring it on!

Posted by: coffeespoons | January 26, 2011 12:20 AM | Report abuse

Well, if everyone hasn't gone to bed, can someone please explain was "thundersnow" is?

Posted by: weathergrrl | January 26, 2011 12:26 AM | Report abuse

Love me some weather geeks! I love reading CWG and the comments.

Thanks, CWG, for all you do!

Posted by: jillber | January 26, 2011 12:27 AM | Report abuse

weathergrrl, I believe it's like a thunderstorm, meaning heavy precipitation, but falling in the form of snow instead of rain.

So, there may be heavy bands of snow appearing in places tomorrow, which are notoriously hard to predict.

Posted by: jillber | January 26, 2011 12:31 AM | Report abuse

Weathergrrl... it's the same as a thunderstorm, except it's snowing instead of raining. Pretty rare.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eQZMLdzUgU&feature=related

Posted by: PoorTeacher | January 26, 2011 12:31 AM | Report abuse

I'm banking on an MCPS closure tomorrow. It looks like this stuff will start around, what, 3am?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | January 26, 2011 12:33 AM | Report abuse

Got a new blanket and DVD (Secretariat) and then went to Safeway for plenty of comfort food (they love me there.) Will work on taxes tomorrow while watching the snow. Maybe we'll finally have enough snow for the puppy to run and play in and chase snowballs. Simple pleasures.

BTW - Thanks, CWG. You ARE the best.

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | January 26, 2011 12:36 AM | Report abuse

What do you guys think about Fairfax County Public Schools being closed tomorrow(well, actually today)? I know it will AT LEAST be an early dismissal.

Posted by: tombeek31 | January 26, 2011 12:38 AM | Report abuse

@weathergrrl - About 30 years ago we stopped at Denny's in Waldorf for a bite to eat. It was snowing at a pretty good clip when we heard loud rumbles of thunder. It was pretty wild.

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | January 26, 2011 12:41 AM | Report abuse

I'd bank on early dismissal but FCPS has a long and proud history of waiting until the last minute to make the right decision.

I feel for you--I escaped the prison that is FCPS in 2005 and never looked back.

Western FFX will have some snow by school time tomorrow if the previous zoning forecasts are any indication. I don't know how much that matters, but I hope yall get the day off :-)

Posted by: celt1 | January 26, 2011 12:42 AM | Report abuse

tombeek, im guessing your in AP Civ.....hahhhaha

Posted by: bmxphenom50 | January 26, 2011 12:47 AM | Report abuse

Thanks for the answers and sorry for the typo ("was" was meant to be "what's".) So it really does thunder, just like a rainstorm? This is what Wes meant by "convective?"

Posted by: weathergrrl | January 26, 2011 12:49 AM | Report abuse

The real accumulating snow wont start until some time around 2:00 PM. There will probably be early dismissals, but I don't see them closing schools for tomorrow.

Posted by: MVPlaya8120 | January 26, 2011 12:51 AM | Report abuse

They should if they care about the kids at all--on the days they didn't when I was in high school, it took me 2-4 hours to get home and my bus or ride would have to dodge dozens of accidents and close calls.

Posted by: celt1 | January 26, 2011 12:56 AM | Report abuse

Radar seems to be indicating sleet along 270.

Posted by: PoorTeacher | January 26, 2011 1:00 AM | Report abuse

Can anyone post a recap of what the various other media sources are saying? Would like to see where it stands across the boards for tomorrow. Also - when do the next models come in? Thanks!

Posted by: SGS78 | January 26, 2011 1:00 AM | Report abuse

A snow day would be much appreciated since it is the last week of the grading quarter!

Posted by: bmxphenom50 | January 26, 2011 1:01 AM | Report abuse

2-4 hours to get home? Did the bus have to stop along the way to fill up on gas?

Posted by: MVPlaya8120 | January 26, 2011 1:02 AM | Report abuse

@bmxphenom50

I know I need more time to study for midterms/ play Black Ops!

Posted by: tombeek31 | January 26, 2011 1:05 AM | Report abuse

Haha practically. I lived on one end of the county and went to a magnet school on the other.

And now that I'm out in the workforce, I have a two hour commute in good weather :-)

Luckily my employer has no qualms about telecommuting.

Posted by: celt1 | January 26, 2011 1:09 AM | Report abuse

FIRST! A few snowflakes just started sporatically here in Fairfax City. 35.2 with 23.1 dewpoint.

Posted by: dudster89 | January 26, 2011 1:13 AM | Report abuse

Unlike those brave/foolish souls who will be driving tomorrow, I will be on a train during evening rush hour. That said, how does the Metro make the call on when to stop above ground trains? If this becomes a major event, is there a chance they could halt trains before I even reach home?!??

Sorry to jinx any possible accumulation with this question, but as much of a weather geek I am, I still need to think about the commute.

Posted by: DCMacNerd | January 26, 2011 1:20 AM | Report abuse

@DCMacNerd, they don't close until there is 8" of accumulation on the third rail...so you'll be okay

Posted by: amizenk | January 26, 2011 1:26 AM | Report abuse

DCMacNerd, Metro claims they close at 8 inches. If we do get 8 inches it won't be until well after the evening rush hour.

Even if trains are running, it sounds like things are going to be even more of a mess starting around 7PM. Try to get home before then!

Posted by: equalize | January 26, 2011 1:28 AM | Report abuse

@DCMacNerd

I think someone mentioned yesterday that if snow gets to 8" then Metro halts above ground tracks.

Posted by: celt1 | January 26, 2011 1:28 AM | Report abuse

Where is the EURO?

Posted by: SGS78 | January 26, 2011 1:30 AM | Report abuse

Regarding rush hour and commuting home tomorrow, CWG said this:

"10:55 p.m. update: Somewhat incredibly, the GFS simulates 0.64" liquid equivalent in the six hours between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. tomorrow - with most of that between 4 and 7 p.m. as the precipitation is going over to all snow. Rush hour could be really, really ugly. "

.64" is between 5 and 6.5" of snow, falling within just a 3 hour period.

Telecommute if you can. If not, leave at 3:30 or earlier...

Posted by: celt1 | January 26, 2011 1:33 AM | Report abuse

Oops, sorry. They said starting at 1, the 6" or so will begin to fall. More like 1" per hour then.

Still, not smart to drive if you can at all avoid it.

Posted by: celt1 | January 26, 2011 1:35 AM | Report abuse

Still a few snow flakes every now and then in Fairfax City even though Intellicast radar shows rain well into MoCo, MD. Temp at my house is now 34.8 and Dewpoint at 22.8 with slight (occasional) breeze out of ENE or E.

Actually, since starting typing, more consistent flurries with some gropple mixed in. Hopefully that 32 degree line aloft will stay south/east for the duration.

Posted by: dudster89 | January 26, 2011 1:56 AM | Report abuse

Snowflakes (round ones!) falling at a pretty good clip.

Posted by: weathergrrl | January 26, 2011 1:56 AM | Report abuse

Folks - I'm back. The Euro shows just over 1.0" QPF and is very similar to the other models in terms of the timing and types of precipitation.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 26, 2011 2:16 AM | Report abuse

Very light snow in Arlington, VA (near Ballston). Outdoor thermometer shows 38 degrees...

Posted by: AndrewArlVA | January 26, 2011 2:17 AM | Report abuse

Snow falling in Manassas. Got a hunch this is going to be bigger than expected.

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | January 26, 2011 2:25 AM | Report abuse

Big flakes falling on Seminary Road and Beauregard.

Posted by: SGS78 | January 26, 2011 2:29 AM | Report abuse

Ground starting to be covered here. Huge flakes happening.

Posted by: SGS78 | January 26, 2011 2:32 AM | Report abuse

Light snow with pretty small flakes (a few bigger ones starting to mix in more and more and no more gropple) in Fairfax City. 34.7 and 23.0 dewpoint. Starting to stick in very thin layer on some part of streets that typically stay shaded. Breeze more consistent from the E to ENE.

Posted by: dudster89 | January 26, 2011 2:34 AM | Report abuse

It's snowing now in DC - Bloomingdale. The temperature is 36F here. It's interesting that this vigorous shield of precipitation has formed so early on.

Posted by: otavio | January 26, 2011 2:37 AM | Report abuse

Ummm...the ground is already white here at Seminary and Beauregard. Seriously...all grass is covered. HUGE flakes.

Posted by: SGS78 | January 26, 2011 2:49 AM | Report abuse

A good dusting here in Woodbridge, all snow no mixing. I thought it was suppose to start as rain?

Posted by: tjack55 | January 26, 2011 2:51 AM | Report abuse

Waking up to a fire alarm in your apartment building at 1 am and standing out in the cold for 45 minutes for the pros to conclude, "we could not determine the source of the smoke" is not fun.

But being awake to see the first of the huge white flakes even when the radar shows rain--priceless!

Posted by: amandap2986 | January 26, 2011 2:54 AM | Report abuse

@tjack55

No- In all of our forecasts since midday, we've been talking about it starting as snow or a mix of snow/sleet - maybe mixing with rain S & E.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 26, 2011 3:00 AM | Report abuse

OMG, thousands of cotton balls are falling from the sky! Seriously, cannot remember the last time I saw flakes this big!

Posted by: amandap2986 | January 26, 2011 3:03 AM | Report abuse

oh man FCPS might actually preemptively close today if precipitation is already falling!

Posted by: tombeek31 | January 26, 2011 3:09 AM | Report abuse

The temperature in DC is falling steadily now as the snow has increased in intensity. I can't believe I'm still up, but it's fun to watch.

Posted by: otavio | January 26, 2011 3:10 AM | Report abuse

west end alexandria has Moderate snow at 313 am with cars covered and grassy areas too.

Posted by: pvogel88 | January 26, 2011 3:13 AM | Report abuse

Very small flakes falling here in Chantilly. I'm trying to rationalize to myself the possibility of school getting cancelled preemptively today. Here's my logic:
A.) A 2-hour early release is pretty much assumed given the timing of the heavy snowfall. I'm sure the superintendent (FCPS) is already gearing up to call that pre-emptively.
B.) The big deal with this storm is how rapidly it's going to fall during those peak hours--even with a 2-hour early release, you're still potentially having elementary kids out there when the storm really hits.
C.) Tonight's unexpected snowfall (even if it's a slushy 1") with the wintry mix expected throughout the day COMBINED with the rush-hour snow blast make for a lot of risks in the peak traffic times for schools.

As I read through this, I'm pretty sure this is all wishful thinking, but when I get a case of snow-mania, it hits hard.


Posted by: MisterFlak | January 26, 2011 3:13 AM | Report abuse

Moderate snow in Fairfax. 33.6 with 24.0 dewpoint (first time dewpoint has made any real increase). Breeze ENE to NE now. Ground lightly covered. Neighborhood street covered with dusting. Radar showing snow as far east as middle of PG Co and as far south as F'Burg. Makes me wonder if we stay all snow in the area slightly west of Beltway (or further east where they may see more precip from primary Low). And whether low dewpoint leads to higher snow ratios for the QPF we expect...

Posted by: dudster89 | January 26, 2011 3:15 AM | Report abuse

It may be 34F outside, but snow is falling and it is sticking even to the streets here in Bethesda. It's coming down moderately with big, fat and wet flakes. I don't know when it started, but it couldn't have been more than 20 minutes ago as there's just a dusting on the ground. However, it is now accumulating. Just a shame it'll change over to rain later today (before changing back to snow of course).

Posted by: nlcaldwell | January 26, 2011 3:24 AM | Report abuse

I stepped outside in the Worldgate Condo community (quarter mile from Eldon St./Centerville Rd.) and the Dulles Access Road (267)Toll Road and noticed that it is ALL snow. My Weatherbug has it listed at 32.3 degree's with a dew point of 27 degrees. The snow is beautiful, I mean just beautiful. Makes me remember why I love it so very much. Quiets everything down and brings people back to a more normal pace and gets people helping and communicating with others. That older lady or man finally gets "checked up on" because people start to look outside of themselves and realize how little could make such a huge impact in someone else's life who really needs it. Yes, I'm speaking of myself and times like this I get ashamed of myself for not doing it 365 days a year. Anyway, I just wanted to thank all the people at CWG and your dedicated, hard work with very little payoff other than to say you wonderful humans are the best we have and I wouldn't trade you for any other group.
Snow is really picking up pace. If it were to stay like this we would have 2 feet easy.
Mitch

Posted by: MITCHRAPP | January 26, 2011 3:26 AM | Report abuse

We started getting giant flakes on Gaithersburg just after 3:00am.

Posted by: hawknt | January 26, 2011 3:28 AM | Report abuse

Yea i am just a few miles north of downtown bethesda and the temperature is falling rapidly according to wunderground it is 32.5 and a few minutes ago the snow was falling at a crazy rate but has let up only a little.

Posted by: david_bethesdasnow | January 26, 2011 3:30 AM | Report abuse

Moderate snow in north College Park. Accumulating to grassy areas, almost all of the sidewalk, and a good portion of the roads.

I hope my area doesn't experience as much rain later today as areas south and east could.

Posted by: DAK4Blizzard | January 26, 2011 3:30 AM | Report abuse

temp in Herndon is now 31.5 with a dew point of 28 degrees

Posted by: MITCHRAPP | January 26, 2011 3:31 AM | Report abuse

I'm no good at reading radar--how long should the snow keep falling at this rate? As I understand, it should break into light rain/overcast until the afternoon--any way it holds up through the morning?

Posted by: MisterFlak | January 26, 2011 3:36 AM | Report abuse

Mister, I'm not the expert but where are you? That will determine the answwer to your question. Here in Herndon, I do NOT see the snow stopping anytime soon or at all until the storm is over but I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong.

Posted by: MITCHRAPP | January 26, 2011 3:42 AM | Report abuse

by the way, temp is now at 29.9 with a dew point of 28

Posted by: MITCHRAPP | January 26, 2011 3:45 AM | Report abuse

by the way, temp is now at 30.9 with a dew point of 28

Posted by: MITCHRAPP | January 26, 2011 3:46 AM | Report abuse

Does Jason Samenow not sleep? Thanks for the updates!

Posted by: EspBruin | January 26, 2011 3:50 AM | Report abuse

just woke up and looked out the window to a winter wonderland here in south Arlington. there is more on the grass but all the surfaces are covered in snow and the snow is falling like a lite drizzle.

Agree with CWG if the NWS has not updated the winter storm warnings and forecast that is just plain irresponsible.

Posted by: VAresident2 | January 26, 2011 3:50 AM | Report abuse

I agree with Mitch! Still snowing pretty hard here in Arlington. Maybe everyone can have a slow day tomorrow and check on their neighbors...

Posted by: AndrewArlVA | January 26, 2011 3:51 AM | Report abuse

I'm down the street from you--right around the intersection of 28/50. If it keeps going at this rate for another hour or so, you'd think they call off school. As for total accumulation through tonight/tomorrow---7-10"?

Posted by: MisterFlak | January 26, 2011 3:52 AM | Report abuse

Still snowing in Cabin John. The yard is covered, as is the street. Bless all here for providing such essential knowledge!

Posted by: flynnie321 | January 26, 2011 3:55 AM | Report abuse

Guess the NWS will be aft-casting today.

Posted by: BamBamRubble | January 26, 2011 4:04 AM | Report abuse

We've got serious sleet in Merrifield, VA: It's coming down fast and may be covering some snow already on the ground. Ground itself, roads included, is covered with perhaps a half inch or so of white.

Posted by: --sg | January 26, 2011 4:06 AM | Report abuse

ONLY AN ADVISORY????? WHAT!!!!!!

Posted by: tombeek31 | January 26, 2011 4:09 AM | Report abuse

Wow...NWS issues ONLY a Winter Weather Advisory for the I-95 corridor...surprising. Loudoun and Montgomery get the much anticipated Winter Storm Warning..finally

Posted by: kdvols1 | January 26, 2011 4:09 AM | Report abuse

Woke up to a snow covered Lake Ridge - grass, streets and all. Looks like the snow though has transitioned to primarily sleet - for now.

Posted by: ZmanVA | January 26, 2011 4:11 AM | Report abuse

Winter Storm Warning now for many counties.

Posted by: david_bethesdasnow | January 26, 2011 4:11 AM | Report abuse

Snow falling and sticking in Germantown (moco), everything's already white!!! Love it!!!

Been feeling down all day after I learned this morning that my uncle is dying of cancer, but the snow brought the first smile of the day to my face. :)

Posted by: alusiv | January 26, 2011 4:12 AM | Report abuse

Anyone else here refreshing their counties' homepage to see about cancellations? A 2-hour delay isn't much of an option today. I'm going with an 80% chance of closing. If an advisory starts at 10am, no way they're sending kids to school in this weather as it is.

Posted by: MisterFlak | January 26, 2011 4:12 AM | Report abuse

Finally posted the WSW!

Posted by: BamBamRubble | January 26, 2011 4:13 AM | Report abuse

Already about half an inch in south Arlington...watching Rafa Nadal match live from Australian Open for warm thoughts.

Posted by: clodilla | January 26, 2011 4:14 AM | Report abuse

Not sure how the NWS downgrades those of us in the Manassas area. Don't all the models point towards more, not less, snow?

Posted by: TheJoeGreene | January 26, 2011 4:17 AM | Report abuse

Laytonsville: Moderate Snow falling. Already a coating on all surfaces.

Posted by: dprats21 | January 26, 2011 4:24 AM | Report abuse

alusiv, sorry to hear that, sending prayers/thoughts your way.

Just did the Belvoir to Alexandria run to take son to 4:30 a.m. swim practice - 33 degrees with healthy doses of sleet and snow still coming down with a slushy .25 inch already on ground. I find it interesting that NWS has only issued a WWA for just south of beltway...I know we're borderline criteria, but sounds like this storm might overperform later this afternoon.

Thanks, Jason and team, for continuing to follow this through the night...

Posted by: ToBeBlunt | January 26, 2011 4:36 AM | Report abuse

1.5 inches here in Silver Spring and sticking to everything.

Posted by: BamBamRubble | January 26, 2011 4:39 AM | Report abuse

@shenvalley hilarious comment! LOVE the John Madden metaphor - keep it up!

Just woke up for my usual 4:30 trip to the bathroom, and was very pleasantly surprised to see some accumulation from my bedroom window in downtown College Park. No call from UMD yet on delayed openings, so I'm heading back to bed.

CWG gang/posters, this site is great -it's more addictive than nicotine. Can't wait for the AM update :D

Posted by: kolya02 | January 26, 2011 4:48 AM | Report abuse

No school in Montgomery County.

Posted by: BamBamRubble | January 26, 2011 5:02 AM | Report abuse

No school for Montgomery county!!!

Posted by: david_bethesdasnow | January 26, 2011 5:03 AM | Report abuse

Can someone tell me why there is no snow falling in vienna?

Posted by: bmxphenom50 | January 26, 2011 2:51 PM | Report abuse

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