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Posted at 9:55 PM ET, 01/10/2011

Winter Weather Advisory up for D.C. & vicinity

By Dan Stillman

The entire region west of the Chesapeake Bay is now under a Winter Weather Advisory (blue shading) late Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE: The winter weather advisory is now for 1-2" of snow and some ice through 1 a.m. Wednesday morning, rather than 2-4" of snow.

From Monday evening: The D.C. snow hole is finally filled. Well, at least it is in terms of being under a Winter Weather Advisory. Earlier, we showed you the National Weather Service map of watches, warnings and advisories for a full one-third of the U.S. population, according to The Weather Channel.

But as we said in that post, it would likely just be a matter of time until a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the metro area. Indeed, the entire region is now under a Winter Weather Advisory effective 4 p.m. Tuesday to 6 a.m. Wednesday. From NWS:

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 7 PM TUESDAY AND 1 AM WEDNESDAY.

The above forecast is fairly consistent with our accumulation map and timeline from earlier, though that map has much of the metro area in the 1-3" range, with 2-4" from just northeast of D.C. and heading to the northeast (pretty minor difference).

We're in the process of reviewing this evening's model data, which is still coming in, and will let you know if we have any changes to our forecast with our next update, by around 11 p.m.

By Dan Stillman  | January 10, 2011; 9:55 PM ET
Categories:  Alerts, Latest, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Winter in DC: nothing longer than waiting for snow
Next: The latest on late Tuesday's minor snow event

Comments

Thank you. That hole really annoyed me.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | January 10, 2011 9:57 PM | Report abuse

@ FIREDRAGON47

I know.. that hole really irritated me as well!!!

Posted by: rudy1481 | January 10, 2011 10:02 PM | Report abuse

The hole may have been filled, but those of us west of the Bay who were previously under a watch just got downgraded to the advisory along with you! Not cool.

Posted by: allagar | January 10, 2011 10:03 PM | Report abuse

By the way the models are looking, I don't think you will be lowering the totals.

Posted by: dannythe357 | January 10, 2011 10:04 PM | Report abuse

SOOOO Glad the hole is gone ..whew!!

Also is there any chance of 2 things?

will snow begin to fall around the lower suburbs( Woodbridge, Dumfries, Ft Belvoir, Lorton..etc) BEFORE 3pm?? if snow is actually falling we dont have to go to work for 2nd shift..if not i have to go and turn around and leave ..lol..its a pain.

2. Is the nail in the coffin yet for us to get Possibly more than 1-4 for the area?

Thanks for your hard work CWG. you and TWC have been the only consistant forecast today in my book.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 10:05 PM | Report abuse

I'm still not getting excited until there are flakes on the ground; we've been burned before.

Posted by: joshvt | January 10, 2011 10:07 PM | Report abuse

im banking on 15-20 inches of snow. NO SCHOOL WEDNESDAY!!!

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | January 10, 2011 10:12 PM | Report abuse

There still is a small "hole" but it's only for the lower Delmarva, the immediate Norfolk area, and extreme NE North Carolina. They've had plenty of snow this winter and are often on the rain side of coastal storms.

Since the DC forecast is now for 2-4", I hope we don't end up with -3". ; ))

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 10, 2011 10:14 PM | Report abuse

Everyone planning to be cautious if driving tomorrow evening?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 10:14 PM | Report abuse

@dannythe357 --> Model looking good? no lower amounts, maybe higher amounts or the same???

Well I guess we will get some some thus far, the questions is 1-3 or 2-4 or maybe higher?? Let's see what the new model runs shows..

Posted by: MNguyen6551 | January 10, 2011 10:15 PM | Report abuse

Another question?

If a meteorologist ( may be misspelled) does a get a forecast wrong ( alot more or alot less) snow. Do they actually get in trouble with there job? I always wondered that? or do they just loose public opinion or what not on there reputation? I had heard many years ago( 1960s-70s) they could be fired for a serious off prediction. Things have changed with the technology we have im sure.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 10:17 PM | Report abuse

allagar, I think a lot of that was borderline on the watches. Some places could verify into the totals needed but not widespread it seems. This morning it was probably warranted, but models are pretty consistently pumping out short on liquid to get the snow needed.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 10:19 PM | Report abuse

I think what you have know is going to be about right, maybe the 2 to 4 range. I hope you say closer to 4.

Posted by: dannythe357 | January 10, 2011 10:19 PM | Report abuse

there seems to be some trending going on. very very very slight but trending none the less and i will hang all my hopes on that :)

Posted by: jbernard703 | January 10, 2011 10:21 PM | Report abuse

2-4" seems fair. there's precip continuing to form around roanoke which is usually a good sign here (at least when it's heading in our direction). should be our first legitimate snow of the season for the dc area...but probably not much. it's funny, everyone is complaining about it being la nina, but aside from our area it seems other places are doing fairly well lol.

Posted by: swishjobs | January 10, 2011 10:26 PM | Report abuse

WHOOOOAAAA - DID YOU JUST SEE THE LATEST NAM?!?!?!?!?!?

(Just kidding)

Posted by: greg2010 | January 10, 2011 10:27 PM | Report abuse

BradFinWoodbridgeVA - I'd love to know what that answer is! CWG - can you weigh in on that?

Posted by: whateva1 | January 10, 2011 10:28 PM | Report abuse

The hole has been filled, but NYC and Boston still get the jackpot. That city is not ready for another snowstorm.

And the latest models don't look so good. GFS is coming out in a few minutes.

Anyone in NYC who may be reading this: please send some extra snow our way; you can have the wind!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | January 10, 2011 10:28 PM | Report abuse

@greg You be trollin!

Posted by: samdman95 | January 10, 2011 10:29 PM | Report abuse

Yea 2-4 inches.I rather go with 4 inches.I'm a snow lOve

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 10:30 PM | Report abuse

XD XD XD XD XD XD

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 10:31 PM | Report abuse

I'm in snow Heaven right now....

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 10:32 PM | Report abuse

@ BobMiller2 ---> Oh no The model don't look so good, that's not a good sign when you say it..... I guess less snow then expected? When you saw the latest models....

Posted by: MNguyen6551 | January 10, 2011 10:32 PM | Report abuse

models dont look good? NOOO BOB!!! dont say that!!!!

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 10:33 PM | Report abuse

Oh crap. latest GFS gives us just an inch...

Posted by: samdman95 | January 10, 2011 10:36 PM | Report abuse

The snow lovers are very active on the comments tonight! No snow pragmatists out there?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 10:36 PM | Report abuse

I would say the models have generally held tonight so far. The NAM was slightly drier in the west and maybe overall but the difference was minimal. The GFS is starting to come out now.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 10:39 PM | Report abuse

2-4 inches of snow in falls church in my area of right now.

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 10:41 PM | Report abuse

Give me just enough to take the boy sleding and build a snowman..thats not being greedy is it?? LOL!!!! 2-4 at least!! please...lol

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 10:42 PM | Report abuse

The Weather Channel forecast I just saw said only a 40% chance of snow tomorrow... is the CWG still fairly confident we'll see accumulating snow?

Posted by: batsandgates | January 10, 2011 10:43 PM | Report abuse

I guess this isn't looking good for a 2-4 or even 1-3 Inches, the way people are writing about the latest model, if this is the case I wouldn't be shocked again... Look what pattern we are in, but I'm sure CWG and the local meteorologist will fine tune there forecast and tell us the best case situation for us snow lovers...

Posted by: MNguyen6551 | January 10, 2011 10:44 PM | Report abuse

Beware of the dreaded dry slot! Hopefully, I'm wrong but it sure looks like the dreaded dry-slot will slice right thru the heart of DC and vicinity early Wednesday morning.

Posted by: johnnierat | January 10, 2011 10:46 PM | Report abuse

Beware of the dreaded dry slot! Hopefully, I'm wrong but it sure looks like the dreaded dry-slot will slice right thru the heart of DC and vicinity early Wednesday morning.

Posted by: johnnierat | January 10, 2011 10:46 PM | Report abuse

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_030m.gif

As we get closer, this is gonna keep happening. Seriously, this storm will be a bust, gonna be hard to get 2 inches out of this in DC metro.

Posted by: KRUZ | January 10, 2011 10:48 PM | Report abuse

Hide the sharp instruments from Bob and Walter and snowlover!

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | January 10, 2011 10:50 PM | Report abuse

I for one am glad the snow totals keep decreasing. Send this stuff to the sea and well north! After last year we dont need it!

Posted by: KRUZ | January 10, 2011 10:53 PM | Report abuse

Despite the difference in setup and more steady model runs, compared to December, looks like this storm is going to have similar impacts on the eastern half of the country. Snow in the South, snow in the Northeast, and we got screwed again.

Posted by: rocotten | January 10, 2011 10:53 PM | Report abuse

Snow hater

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 10:53 PM | Report abuse

MAN!! This ALWAYS seems to happen in the last 12 hours before the storm..the totals get..smaller..and smaller..and smaller..... funny how your hopes can get dashed in just a few minutes of updates.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 10:54 PM | Report abuse

Still bad timing...wish they'd CANCEL that Clarendon Ballroom dance...don't know whether I'll try going, as the crowd is likely to be very small. In addition the scheduled live band may be unable to get there, making it a DJ dance if held.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 10, 2011 10:57 PM | Report abuse

Sue Palka is staying with 2-4" UNLESS sleet mixes in. Don't know if she saw the latest models. She also said most of the snow will be tomorrow tonight. That's a boo!!

Let's see what Mr. Ryan has to say in a few minutes.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 10, 2011 11:00 PM | Report abuse

Totals weren't really smaller with this GFS run, it still shows 1-3" for most of the region, 2-5" northeast of DC.

Posted by: Dylan0513 | January 10, 2011 11:00 PM | Report abuse

If i wake up in the morning and see its a Bust, Im Seriously thinking of takin a few days Vac and driving down to my folks house in Spartanburg SC. They got 9 inches and its supposed to hang around a few days.Theres an awesome hill to sled at my Dads. I may pack the family up and make the 6 hr drive down tommorow. Im that upset about this possible Bust!! Yes..IM A TRUE SNOW LOVER!!!!

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 11:02 PM | Report abuse

It's interesting that Sue Palka didn't say anything about the model has trended less amounts, We will see what others are saying... I'm hoping CWG can analysis the latest model or @ this point it doesn't matter.. I see TWC has a different Probability of Precipitation then the NWS.... But then if you click on Tuesday for TWC it still says 60-70% Snow, I know NWS is saying 100%..... For everyone who hates snow, you have your opinion about this storm then others, but that's what mother nature does and this so called "La Nina" Winter we are in....

Posted by: MNguyen6551 | January 10, 2011 11:04 PM | Report abuse

SNOW LOVERS ARE #1.SNOW HATERS DON'T EXIST ON THE FACE OF THE EARTH. MUHHHAAAAA!!!

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 11:05 PM | Report abuse

Bob Ryan is going with 1-2". Is it time to turn out the lights, the party's over? Of course, NYC and Boston are going to get hammered... it's so 12/26, except maybe we'll squeeze an inch or so out of this storm.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 10, 2011 11:06 PM | Report abuse

Dylan0513, there was barely any change on the GFS either. It did dry slightly the previous run compared to the midday run. But overall I think the runs imply basically what they have been.. there are some natural bounces here and there that don't end up meaning much in the long run.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 10, 2011 11:07 PM | Report abuse

just watched 3 different stations and TWC as well.. No one is saying anything about lesser totals..still 1-3 and 2-4 for around here...where are yall gettin this lesser totals from???

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 11:08 PM | Report abuse

I trust

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 11:10 PM | Report abuse

The snow gods

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 11:11 PM | Report abuse

Snowlover4life..if it does BUST..your welcome to follow us to SC and enjoy the 9-10 inches of snow on my dads farm..lol!!!

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 11:12 PM | Report abuse

Thank u I'm paching my bags now

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 11:14 PM | Report abuse

Packing MY bad

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 11:17 PM | Report abuse

The midwest upper low looks like it's dying already. Anyone else seeing that?

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | January 10, 2011 11:21 PM | Report abuse

Topper Shutt says 1.8" in DC; 2.4 in Gaithersburg (where I live) and about the same in Baltimore.

BTW, what are "snow pragmatists"? I can understand not rooting for a blizzard with every system, but several people on here who aren't snowlovers seem to go in the opposite direction and don't seem to want even an inch, ever. Wanting the DC area to be just like Florida isn't snow pragmatism, as I see it.

Posted by: mkarns | January 10, 2011 11:26 PM | Report abuse

Latest from Bob Ryan: a dusting to an inch. Sounds like this snow goose is cooked.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | January 10, 2011 11:27 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for that comment mkarns

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 11:29 PM | Report abuse

Fox 5 says 2-4 but I don't know who to trus

Posted by: SNOWLOVER4LIFE | January 10, 2011 11:32 PM | Report abuse

Its Amazing how this all changed from the totals being a little beefed up to a dusting in 30 minutes time...amazing...

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 11:35 PM | Report abuse

Sorry if i sound so crazy about this snow deal..its just hard on me..im a SNOW Lover and Im SUPER JEALOUS of what my parents got back home in SC. Im EXTREMLY SPOILED after being here last winter I guess....We have the rest of jan and feb to wish i guess..( brad slowly walks up stairs and begins to solemly pack his bags and prepare the journy to Sc to enjoy 10 inches of snow while it last) LOL

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | January 10, 2011 11:39 PM | Report abuse

Can we please get a 20-24 inch event? I've got a snowblower itching to get started on an actual snow. 2-4" is just flurries.

Good news that Bob Ryan is predicting a dusting. We're now assured of at least 12"

Posted by: Ombudsman1 | January 11, 2011 5:13 AM | Report abuse

Meteorologists are basically being asked to predict the future. Give them some slack.

Posted by: Dadrick | January 11, 2011 10:13 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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