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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/17/2011

Forecast: A Spring tease over next two days

By David Streit

Warmth erodes over long weekend

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Accuse me of grade inflation but 65+ warmth & much less wind than last Monday is top of the class
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny and dry. 64-68. | Tonight: Clear and mild. 43-49. | Tomorrow: Sunny a.m., increasing clouds p.m. 68-72. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Pinch me. This can't be February. Today it's warm and tomorrow warmer. While not quite record-breaking warmth, we should come within just a few degrees of it tomorrow. The problem is it does not look like it will hold for the holiday weekend. Could wintry precipitation be in the picture next week?

Snow Potential Index: 2 (↑) - Models starting to suggest a Tuesday snow chance, but rain or miss possibilities too.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Thursday): Heaps of sunshine, very dry air and a light wind from the southwest is all it takes to push the thermometer readings skyward! Highs hit the mid-to-upper 60s with ease. Confidence: High

Tonight: Breezes from the southwest keep temperatures from falling quickly so no need to hurry inside this evening. Enjoy the starry, starry night. Lows end up in the mid-to-upper 40s. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through Monday....

Friday: The sun remains front and center in the morning, but by afternoon, clouds start to scurry in on brisk west winds. This should not derail another spectacularly warm day with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. We should only miss the record by a few degrees. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: There is the slimmest of chances (10%) for an evening sprinkle. There should be enough breaks to see the full moon, commonly termed the Snow Moon but false advertising this year. The real problem this evening is more likely to be strong gusty winds from the northwest. Not as strong as Monday's howling but enough to rattle windows from time to time. Those winds usher in considerably cooler air by late evening. Still lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s are a good 10 degrees above normal. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

snowpiles-lowres.jpg
Snow piles still block many parking spaces at Fairfax Corner Wednesday. By CWG photographer Kevin Ambrose.

Saturday is mostly sunny and relatively mild compared to average. However, the winds should continue to gust strongly out of the northwest much of the day making it feel cooler. Highs peak in the low-to-mid 50s. Winds finally lighten up in the evening but this allows temperatures to drop more quickly. Lows reach upper 20s suburbs to mid-30s downtown. Confidence: Medium

Sunday is where the tussle in the models gets started. I am leaning to the colder solution here so be advised that if the warmer models win out, it will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer! Winds stay light today but clouds slowly but surely increase across the region with an overcast finish for the day. Highs should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The evening is cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles possible (20% chance). Lows reach the mid-to-upper 30s. Confidence: Low-Medium

President's Day (Monday) is a tough call. I am inclined to go with the colder model solutions based on best track record. The result is a mostly cloudy and cool day with winds from the north. Highs only make the mid-to-upper 40s which is actually seasonable. The problem is warmer models would give readings up to 20 or degrees warmer. Now that would be a nice problem to have! Stay tuned as we sort out this holiday dilemma in the next few updates. Confidence: Low

As we go back to work on Tuesday, we could see rain, a mix of precipitation or snow. The models have been getting more and more aggressive with the cold air, which could also push the system so far south we get little or no precipitation. This bears watching and we'll have additional updates.

By David Streit  | February 17, 2011; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Solar Flare 2011: Aurora alert

Comments

First. Let the record show I have predicted the major snow we will get next week; "President's Day After"

Posted by: Kairos123 | February 17, 2011 5:20 AM | Report abuse

A 10? Whoa! When's the last time we had one of those?

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 17, 2011 5:38 AM | Report abuse

I am so excited that today has the CWG “Nice Day” seal of approval!

Posted by: kmill67 | February 17, 2011 7:02 AM | Report abuse

im just glad the models are trending colder and snowier now for next week, as we still have 20 or so models runs to go for this to trend rainy or even nothing at all!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 17, 2011 7:04 AM | Report abuse

a 2↑! when was the last time we had one of those! my morning GFS snow hunt found the early next week storm bringing about 3" of snow!

mon/tue:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_126m.gif

and the 25/26 storm ends as 2-3" of snow too!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p24_240m.gif

both storms arrive a bit slower (than projected to yesterday), start as rain, and end as snow. and the trend is our friend. the storms are moving more south and apparently bringing cold air down with them.

i assume we'll be getting details from the pros on this later.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2011 7:29 AM | Report abuse

"Good day, sunshine!"

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 17, 2011 7:46 AM | Report abuse

No mention of snow in NWS extended discussion.

Seems to be a very minimal chance at this point.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 17, 2011 7:49 AM | Report abuse

@ Walter-infallschurch

I bet there is a room in your house filled with meteorology equipment.. Doug Hills long lost son.. lol, just kidding! I appreciate your knowledge, and the fact that you are sharing it with us snow lovers.. May the Snow Gods bless Walter for sprinkling "Snow Hope" dust all over the CWG blog..

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 17, 2011 8:04 AM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

The 0z Euro crushed the Tues storm and gives no snow. Still lots of uncertainty, but the GFS is nice for snow lovers.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 17, 2011 8:22 AM | Report abuse

Last night's canadian model also would give us snow. The ukmet model suggests precipitation but it's hard to say whether it would be rain to snow or rain. Like most of the models, it has trended colder.

Posted by: wjunker | February 17, 2011 8:26 AM | Report abuse

lol i love these games the models play! LETS GO EURO!

i still stand by my guess of no snow. models will play this game until monday or even tuesday but in the end there will be no snow in dc.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 17, 2011 8:42 AM | Report abuse

Wow. I get a "nice day" today, & the snow potential index is looking up for next week.
Yeah, spin us up for one more round of snow hysteria.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 17, 2011 8:57 AM | Report abuse

you "mildies" enjoy your moment in the sun this week, 'cause snow's acomin' next week (maybe, somewhere... probably not here... but at least it's a possibility again)!

kevin,
your picture of the shopping center snow pile inspired me. i was able to get a pic of my serpent (heh heh) just before it submerged entirely.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/58171957@N00/

jason,
thanks for the info on the euro. i choose to ignore that model in this case... for instance, i prefer the canadian model wes refers to - since it's snow-friendly (and most canadians are so friendly).

bella,
you're welcome for the updates. i've just learned how to snow-hunt and interpret the models' temp & precip amounts... that's truly just about the extent of my meteorological expertise. 'preciate your request for blessings from the snow gods. if they truly want to bless me, they could just bring snow next week.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2011 9:06 AM | Report abuse

Way to early to bet bet the ranch on next weeks weather!

Posted by: Jimbo77 | February 17, 2011 9:43 AM | Report abuse

Monday is the George Washington Parade and other events in Alexandria. Big day, hope it does not rain on the parade!

Posted by: jaybird926 | February 17, 2011 9:43 AM | Report abuse

Looks like the NAM is also snowless and warm... It might not be seeing the high up north though thats why most of the storm is still up north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_slp_084m.gif

Posted by: KRUZ | February 17, 2011 9:57 AM | Report abuse

The ground is so warm snow will have trouble accumulating and the sun is getting high in the sky so the snow won't stick around even if it does stick. Give it up snow lovers, Spring is in the air! I turned off my heat and left my windows open before leaving for work.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 17, 2011 10:03 AM | Report abuse

I will surely be lambasted for this, but at this point I am really hoping for no snow. If we'd stayed cold, a late-Feb snowstorm would have been nice. But, after a week like we've had, it's just too hard to go back to the winter weather......

Posted by: SSpring1021 | February 17, 2011 10:03 AM | Report abuse

I love the CWG blog.. This blog is more entertaining than something called face book..

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 17, 2011 10:07 AM | Report abuse

When was the last time we had a " nice day?"

Posted by: megamuphen | February 17, 2011 10:32 AM | Report abuse

megamuphen,
jan 26.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2011 10:38 AM | Report abuse

@KRUZ: that's the first storm. We know it will not be a snow maker here, but the hope is that it brings in enough cold air behind it to set the stage for wintery precip if storm #2 takes a track just to our south Tuesday. If you look at the steering flow:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_084m.gif
the potential snow event is the wave in the flow over Arizona Sunday evening.

Posted by: foul_throw | February 17, 2011 10:56 AM | Report abuse

Walter,
I think thousands of dead trees and thousands of angry commuters would disagree with you.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 17, 2011 10:58 AM | Report abuse

Next Wednesday has a projected low of 11 degrees????

Posted by: superseiyan | February 17, 2011 11:22 AM | Report abuse

kmill67 & rwalker66 - I liked your earlier remarks about us rating today a '10' and using the Nice Day stamp of approval... It has certainly been a while! Even I had to tell myself "oh, yes, we do need to break out the Nice Day stamps for this pleasing string of weather" - I need to remember to use one for my Friday forecast tomorrow!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 17, 2011 11:27 AM | Report abuse

superseiyan - from where are you getting this info? That seems a bit low to me.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 17, 2011 11:31 AM | Report abuse

@Camden, on the front page of the weather, the section front area, Wednesday's the last day on the forecast. High 48/Low 11.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/sectionfronts/metro/weather/index.html?nid=roll_weather

Posted by: superseiyan | February 17, 2011 11:42 AM | Report abuse

Channel 4 meteorologists are calling for light snow on Tuesday with highs in the thirties.

I now have both TWC and WeatherBug on my desktop...and the closest WeatherBug location, Campbell Elementary School,[Carlin Springs Rd @ 7th Rd., S.] tends to record higher temps than TWC @ Reagan [?]. Currently Campbell is 63F Reagan 57F.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 17, 2011 11:49 AM | Report abuse

Camden

If you follow the link to the Washington Post weather page, that's what its showing. I assume that's a typo.

Posted by: TBAlexandria | February 17, 2011 11:57 AM | Report abuse

So, Walter, I guess you would be happy with any snow, no matter what the amount? Cause I would agree with other posters that at this point, a few inches probably would not stay on the ground more than a day or two...

Posted by: weatherdude | February 17, 2011 12:00 PM | Report abuse

My closest Weatherbug station at Navy Elementary in Fairfax says it's 64 degrees out right now at noon.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 17, 2011 12:00 PM | Report abuse

Snow? What's that?
This is the kind of weather we used to have in winter in TX. Lovely...

Posted by: fakedude2 | February 17, 2011 1:48 PM | Report abuse

Jeez, it is so nice out there.
The birds weren't kidding when they woke us up with their springtime love twitters this morning.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 17, 2011 2:17 PM | Report abuse

71 degrees here (24 degrees above normal)!

weatherdude,
sure - i'd be happy w/any amount of snow, since it looks so darned pretty while falling. of course i'd be more happy with more snow.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2011 2:20 PM | Report abuse

@Bombo

I noticed Doug Kammerer on Ch. 4 did talk Tuesday snow during last night's 6pm newscasts, but he was alone on an island compared to the other TV news outlets. Even the snowhawk himself, Topper, didn't mention it.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 17, 2011 2:20 PM | Report abuse

First outdoor lunch of the season. Gotta love it!

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 17, 2011 2:32 PM | Report abuse

69 degrees here where im at. Should hit 70 today. These temps are higher than what was forecasted! Any chance we hit 80 tomorrow?....

I hope models keep underestimating the temps right on into all of next weeks storms!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 17, 2011 2:39 PM | Report abuse

the thermometer in my car thought it was 74 outside could that be true?

Posted by: fsd50 | February 17, 2011 3:25 PM | Report abuse

My wind prediction is a little different from CWG's. I think it'll gust higher on Saturday than it did on Valentine's Day. NWS just upped the sustained wind speed forecast to 29 mph for Jefferson County, which in my experience means gusts of 55-60.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 17, 2011 3:35 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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