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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/ 6/2011

Forecast: Brightening skies for the big game

By Brian Jackson

Yet another iffy storm to track mid-to-late week

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Sunshine returns and temperatures respond. Nice improvement.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly to mostly sunny, warmer. Mid-to-upper 40s. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Upper 20s to mid-30s. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy but pleasant. Upper 40s to near 50. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Well, this is more like it. After yesterday's gloomy and chilly drizzle-fest, our forecast looks much brighter today. Periods of sun and a nice jump in temperature benefit those that may want to fire up the grill for the "big game" (no one wants to get sued you know). A quick disturbance moving through Monday night leaves more cold and wind behind for us. A more significant system bears watching for the Wednesday-Friday timeframe.

Snow Potential Index: 4 (→) - Small chance of very light accumulation Mon. night. Bigger storm possible on or around Thurs., but tricky storm track means forecast fraught with uncertainty.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Partly to mostly sunny skies are a marked improvement to round out the weekend. Temperatures do their part as well with afternoon highs warming into the mid-to-upper 40s. Winds blow lightly from the west at 5-10 mph. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clouds make a comeback as skies turn mostly cloudy and winds go calm or nearly calm. Overnight lows dip into the upper 20s to low 30s, possibly mid-30s in the warmest spots downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast into the coming work week, including the latest on the mid-to-late-week storm threat...

Tomorrow (Monday): Mostly cloudy skies continue as we sit between rain falling along the Southeast coast and rain or snow falling mainly over and west of the Appalachians. Despite not much sun, temperatures still manage the upper 40s to near 50 for highs as light winds from the south push warmer air into our region. We should stay dry through most of the day, though a bit of light rain could threaten toward evening. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Those two areas of precipitation mentioned above - to the southeast and to the west - look to merge mainly to our east/northeast. But a trailing upper-level disturbance passing nearby to our south may help to bridge the gap and produce a quick burst of rain or snow during the evening into the overnight. Even with overnight lows cooling to the low-to-mid 30s, the ground should still be fairly warm after the daytime highs flirting with 50. So, if we were to see any snow, accumulation would be tough to come by - maybe a dusting to half-inch if anything. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Monday night's storminess departs to the northeast, leaving behind raw winds and a new round of cold for Tuesday and Wednesday. Brisk winds from the northwest, slackening a bit by Wednesday, negate the warming influence of partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs both days may only make the mid-30s to near 40. Overnights match the pattern with brisk Tuesday and Wednesday night lows from near 20 to the mid-20s. Confidence: Medium-High

We're still watching the potential for a coastal storm to affect the area between Wednesday night and Friday. Models over the past few days have shown a few different scenarios - a sizeable snowstorm, snow changing to rain, or a miss out to sea - with no real consensus as of yet. So we'll have to wait this one out for now. Confidence: Low

By Brian Jackson  | February 6, 2011; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Meaningful snow chances diminishing

Comments

What is the newest Euro showing for the mid week storm?

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 6, 2011 7:52 AM | Report abuse

The newest Euro shows the storm turning around and heading to jamaica mon.

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 8:50 AM | Report abuse

"Models are showing a few different scenarios - a sizeable snowstorm, snow changing to rain, or a miss out to sea - with no real consensus as of yet."

If we're going to hug the models we might as well examine what they are really showing...there's a pretty strong consensus from what I can see at this point for OTS...

Posted by: bbirnbau | February 6, 2011 9:32 AM | Report abuse

The sun is OUT....let's make a run up to 50 degrees today. Yay!

And then we need some new snow, because the old stuff hanging around is simply grotesque.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 6, 2011 10:01 AM | Report abuse

I am a huge and longtime fan of CWG, but the speed of this site is starting to drive me away. I understand the WaPo's need to advertise, but I can't be the only one that is frustrated with the speed of the site.

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | February 6, 2011 10:18 AM | Report abuse

What are the EURO models looking like at this point of time

Posted by: weatherfreak1994 | February 6, 2011 10:26 AM | Report abuse

The EURO is heading back to France after Jamaica.

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 10:28 AM | Report abuse

The EURO is heading back to France after Jamaica.

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 10:28 AM | Report abuse

right lol are u kidding me or u telling the real truth

Posted by: weatherfreak1994 | February 6, 2011 10:31 AM | Report abuse


Awesome powder day at whitetail last year during snowmaggedon!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teRoVsyri6o

Hopefully we get another one this Thursday!!!

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 6, 2011 10:39 AM | Report abuse

My understanding of the EURO model is it now shows Virginia and parts of the Carolinas getting a major snowstorm but it seems to be following the GFS track slowly but surely. Im sure most thought by now the GFS would come to the EURO track but the GFS keeps getting further south and east.

Im not rooting for snow, but no one's going to know what will happen until probably tuesday night or even wed, so im sure snow is still highly possible. We've seen this so many times before, where these models shift even within the last 48-24 hours.

Although it does look like as of now @BBIRNBAU may be right and the models are starting to agree this this goes south and OTS, although I think we still may see some snow, just not the 18"+ some are hoping for.

Heres the latest GFS: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_108m.gif

And here is last nights EURO, which is atm a complete miss: http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/myweatherlive/images/blogimage/ecmwf850mb-mslp-tmp_114.png

Things can change and prolly will but right now it doesnt look good for a snow storm.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 10:40 AM | Report abuse


I know it is way to early but what do you guys think would be the highest possible accumulation on Thursday if the storm were to take a track up I-95? a foot? 6-10 inches??? 4-6 inches???

thanks

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 6, 2011 11:06 AM | Report abuse

For what its worth to you snow lovers out there, Henry Margusity just wrote this on facebook:

I am very hesitate to pull the plug on the Thursday storm given the model trends. We have been down this road many times with the models this year that they go out the Southeast then 2 days before the storm, we are suddenly faced with a big storm.

As much as I hope we dont get snow, you really gotta agree with what he says, these things tend to change in the last 24-48 hours. Im hoping it changes and goes even further OTS. I really dont want any snow but I will be prepping for the worst.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 11:16 AM | Report abuse

One more update by HM from accuwx facebook that kind of goes with what I was thinking:

"What I think is happening with the Thursday storm, the storm Monday night into Tuesday becomes the blocker to force the Thursday storm out through the Southeast. As for snow, we end up with a swath of snow from the Texas Panhandle to North Carolina and southern Virginia."

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 11:24 AM | Report abuse

as the snow chances approach for later this week, let's hope those enjoying their 65th out of the last 68 days (since dec 1) w/ less than .5" of snow, will let snowlovers enjoy it. (of course going back to last feb 11, that would be something like 357 of the last 360 days w/o .5" of snow.)

just wonderin':
is bastardi still calling next thurdsay's storm "the storm of the century" (hahahahahahahahahah)?

if so, he appears to be predicting next weeks's weather for the atlantic ocean.... and even if he is predicting the storm of the century for the atlantic ocean, i've seen MUCH much bigger storms than this miss us. how embarrassing would it be to have the storm of the century miss the continent? (**laughs/cries**)

KRUZ,
'preciate the updates from accuweather fantasy land. and thanks for the euro link (as awful as it looks). i can't seem to find a good place to view the euro.

SNOWLUVER,
a day or two ago, the storm took what i saw as the perfect track and it brought us 10-12". that was very dicey because if it went any further west/up-the-coast it brought rain, and any further east and precipitation amts dropped. that's what's happened now (per GFS): it's gone way out east... giving us almost no precip.

-------------------
12zGFS is a MISS for thursday...again:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_042m.gif

but gives a whopping 1 or 2" on tuesday...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p24_042m.gif

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 6, 2011 11:34 AM | Report abuse

The 12z GFS is a complete miss yet again...sigh...normally I would throw in the towel at this point, but there's still plenty of time for the models to flip again.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_114m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_102m.gif

I was really surprised to hear that the Euro has shifted towards the GFS solution. I was hoping it would be vice versa.

It also looks as though the cold snap coming immediately thereafter won't be quite as intense as originally thought. Am I interpreting this correctly, CWG?

Just a few days ago, NWS was saying highs may not even make it to 20°F, but now, it looks like the high on Friday could be up towards 30°.

Also, what is your current take on this so-called heat wave Joe Bastardi is calling for after Valentine's Day? He said DC would hit 80° before the 1st of March. I have a hard time believing that.

---

SNOWLUVER, you said, "what do you guys think would be the highest possible accumulation on Thursday if the storm were to take a track up I-95?"

well, yesterday, the Euro put out close to 9" if the ratios were to be 1:10, but someone mentioned that if it were to verify, the ratios could be considerably higher than that. So in the best case scenario, we could see around a foot. However, that is looking rather unlikely at this point.

---

FIREDRAGON, you said, "The sun is OUT....let's make a run up to 50 degrees today. Yay!"

I know exactly what you mean. If there isn't going to be precip, then what's the point of bitter cold? It would be nice to be able to step outside without freezing to death!

---

KRUZ, you said, "Things can change and prolly will but right now it doesnt look good for a snow storm."

That statement is one of the few things on which you and I can agree. After getting 9 - 11" out of that last storm here in Loudoun, I'm really not expecting any more snow. Hoping, but not expecting.

---

One final note - - CWG, thanks again for your fantastic coverage of this system and for all the thorough updates you have been giving us!

--Bob

P.S. the current reading on my deck here in Sterling is 41.7°F. What an improvement!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 6, 2011 11:34 AM | Report abuse

ha, oops... bob miller and i posted about the same topic (the recent crappy-for-snow-thursday GFS), but i posted two links about tuesday. my thursday "miss" link was supposed to be:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_102m.gif

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 6, 2011 11:41 AM | Report abuse

I'm a snowlover and have hopes for later this week, but in the meantime it's wonderful out this morning so get out and enjoy. Part of my run was up Klingle Road and there's a fair bit of ice lingering on it. Hopefully it disappears today.

Posted by: marathoner | February 6, 2011 11:41 AM | Report abuse

Who cares what the GFS is saying. The GFS is junk past 72 hours.

Posted by: oriolesfan2323 | February 6, 2011 11:54 AM | Report abuse

I completely agree with ORIOLESFAN, the GFS is as accurate as Joe Bastardi past 72 hours. We have 4 days plus... I WILL GUARANTEE YOU 100 PERCENT that the Models will shift and we'll get some good snow.

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Just found these boards this winter. But have been glued to winter weather models for years. Huge snow lover! This is my first post.

Looking at the NAM, which is just starting to come into play for Wed night and Thurs, the cold plunge is shown not as deep as the GFS is suggesting, which tells me we could still be seeing a coastal low develop and move up the coast. The big issue for Thurs is how deep the cold plunges...the further south it goes, the more likely the low gets pushed out to sea. Right now the fact that things are trending a little warmer (but still cold enough for snow) is a good thing.

Also, the 12z GFS did something really funky with the low spitting off the coast and hanging there before going out to sea. It says to me it wants to hang there and go up the coast! I am not convinced yet of a big snow for DC, but I am not ruling it out yet either.

Posted by: dsnowman | February 6, 2011 12:24 PM | Report abuse

Right now it is a good thing that the models are showing an OTS solution because by monday night and tuesday they will flip and turn to a coastal track. People won't see this major snowstorm coming and it will punch them in the face when it arrives on Wednesday/Thursday. Today and tomorrow you should be getting groceries and a snowblower. The snow is going to be very light because of the low temps.

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 6, 2011 12:53 PM | Report abuse

I think commutegeddon, is the biggest storm the DC area is gonna see this winter... I think La Nina escaped from a loony bin somewhere! Crazy, crazy weather track.. Next year I hope she takes her meds..

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 6, 2011 1:27 PM | Report abuse

I think commutegeddon, is the biggest storm the DC area is gonna see this winter... I think La Nina escaped from a loony bin somewhere! Crazy, crazy weather track.. Next year I hope she takes her meds..

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 6, 2011 1:27 PM | Report abuse

What is the 12z Euro showing?

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 6, 2011 1:40 PM | Report abuse

CWG,
When's update/wes assessment coming

Posted by: redskins-95 | February 6, 2011 1:47 PM | Report abuse

Snow lovers might have to be content trying to squeeze an inch or two out of the Monday night system.

The Thursday "Storm of the Century" looks pretty unlikely at this point. No blocking and too strong a northern stream at 500 mb.

The GFS does have some history of mishandling systems coming out of the SW and making the northern split too dominent. That is our one straw to grasp at.

Looks like big warm up by Valentines Day. Whether it flips back to cold after that is questionable.

Posted by: frontieradjust | February 6, 2011 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Hi all, hi redskins-95 - Wes' update is now posted!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 6, 2011 2:20 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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