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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/ 3/2011

Forecast: Chilly but sun in abundance

By David Streit

A little ice possible Friday night

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Sure it is chilly and breezy but a sun that is getting higher in the sky is still not a bad deal.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny, breezy. 34-38. | Tonight: Clear and calm. 19-26. | Tomorrow: Increasing p.m. clouds. 38-42. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The next storm to approach the area comes in on Friday night. It may be just cold enough to produce a bit of sleet or freezing rain, especially north of the city, but quickly switching over to rain. It was one year ago this weekend that we were snowed under, with even stingy Reagan National Airport picking up over 18"! Sunshine is back in abundance and temperatures warm nicely on Sunday and Monday before another possible storm system on Tuesday.

Snow Potential Index: 3 (↓) - Only an outside chance of snow briefly Saturday when storm ends & cold air eases back in.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Thursday): Bright sun may require the shades today. But looks are deceiving as Arctic air is seeping into the area. Brisk winds from the northwest add to the chill. Highs only make the mid-to-upper 30s. Confidence: High

Tonight: The cool air coming off that big snow field in the Midwest has its greatest influence this evening. Starry skies and calm winds result in lows in the upper teens to mid-20s. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through Monday....

Friday: Another sunny day is on tap, well at least for the morning. A weak storm system in the Gulf gradually drifts north and some clouds should begin sneaking in by later in the day. Highs should be a little warmer but still top out mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Breezes are light and variable. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: This is the period to keep an eye out for possible problems in areas where surface temperatures slip below freezing. The moisture coming up from the south could fall as some light freezing rain or even a little sleet, mainly before midnight. After that most areas should see the atmosphere give in to warmer air coming up from the south and switch to cold rain (60% chance). Lows hover right around the freezing mark. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday is a soggy day but mainly just from light rain (70% chance). The rains end in the afternoon but there is an inkling from some models that the cold air could sneak back in for some light snow before the storm moves away in the afternoon. Low probability on that though. Highs range form the mid-30s to lower 40s. Winds pick up during the day from the west. Skies only gradually clear overnight keeping lows from falling much. They bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Confidence: Medium

Sunday is back to beautiful sunshine and this time the Arctic air is missing in action. Highs manage to make it to the mid-to-upper 40s. Despite a calm clear night temperatures only fall slowly. Lows reach the upper 20s to lower 30s. Confidence: Medium

Monday has increasing clouds as a weak Midwest storm approaches. By afternoon the sky should look like it could snow but that is likely just a tease. A chance of rain and/or snow develops late that night but is more likely on Tuesday. Highs should make the mid-to-upper 40s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By David Streit  | February 3, 2011; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Name Chicago's snowstorm

Comments

Walter, sounds like you will have to move to Houston if you want some snow to work with. It would be ironic if Brownsville gets more snow than we do.

Posted by: eric654 | February 3, 2011 6:29 AM | Report abuse

Sure feels like winter is over. It was great while it lasted. Counting the piles on the side of the driveway, I've had snow in my yard since Dec 26th.

Posted by: biketraveller22 | February 3, 2011 7:07 AM | Report abuse

eric,
ha! "ironic" is not the word i think of when considering more snow falling in alabama, mississippi, the carolinas and now brownsville(!) texas... that's as south as southern florida!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 3, 2011 7:27 AM | Report abuse

If we do not get a substantial amount of "SNOW" by presidents day... I am gonna move to Maine...

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 3, 2011 7:34 AM | Report abuse

Black ice in various spots in Falls church at 7 this morning.

Guys, it's only February 3rd. We've got at least another 30 days of decent snow potential. And some of our biggest storms have happened on Washington's Birthday.

Posted by: wiredog | February 3, 2011 7:44 AM | Report abuse

Out here in western Fairfax County, we still have a lot of snow on the ground. Given the high amount of high water content that has been compressed and frozen into the snow cover, it will be slow to melt.

Posted by: Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang | February 3, 2011 8:04 AM | Report abuse

Windy and cold enough to freeze your cheeks this morning in College Park

Posted by: kolya02 | February 3, 2011 8:05 AM | Report abuse

Lots of black ice this morning in Herndon and Fairfax. Be careful.

Posted by: veronica7 | February 3, 2011 8:12 AM | Report abuse

Black ice in Alexandria, too.

Posted by: 4seasons | February 3, 2011 8:14 AM | Report abuse

Another mixed precip at the onset, then a cold rain event!!!

Posted by: Jimbo77 | February 3, 2011 8:25 AM | Report abuse

There is nothing more dismal than cold raindrops falling from the sky... I shall wave my BELLASNOWQUEEN wand, and turn the rain into snow..

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 3, 2011 8:36 AM | Report abuse

CWG & Washington Post: There is an echo in the room. The double posts and slow speed in registering a comment on your page is driving all of us nuts! Who do I need to complain to at the Post to get something done about this...about this...about this...abouth this...about this?

Posted by: greg2010 | February 3, 2011 8:40 AM | Report abuse

Greg is 100% right and it's not our computers. For me, CWG is just about the only site on the web that is slow to load. This leads to the double posts because people don't think their first post registered as soemtimes it takes 2-3 MINUTES before a "submit" results in a post showing up.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 3, 2011 8:45 AM | Report abuse

Sorry about the tech issue guys, will try to get someone to look into it shortly

Posted by: davidstreit1 | February 3, 2011 8:55 AM | Report abuse

in the meantime, while CWG works to fix the problem, i wouldn't consider it "heavy handed" or censoring or anything like that if CWG removed the 2nd/3rd posts in a sequence of double/triple posts.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 3, 2011 8:56 AM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

Thanks. We try to delete the double/triple posts. Also, have alerted IT about slow commenting. Hopefully, it will get better.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 3, 2011 9:22 AM | Report abuse

Of course there was a lot of black ice out there this morning. It got up to 50 (or higher) in most spots yesterday which caused a lot of melting, then temps dropped like a rock to the 20's, freezing all those wet patches and runoff to solid ice. I wore my YakTrax this morning just to be safe. You can dance on ice with those things. This is not a commercial, just helpful advice for pedestrians dealing with icy sidewalks.

http://www.yaktrax.com/walker

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 3, 2011 9:27 AM | Report abuse

What was the accumulation total for IAD last year for the storm? Over 20" right?

Posted by: kwojciec | February 3, 2011 10:14 AM | Report abuse

@kwojciec Dulles got a whopping 32" out of that same storm!

Posted by: davidstreit1 | February 3, 2011 10:25 AM | Report abuse

rwalker66, thanks for the tip. I had my first fall of the season this week and I'd like to not make it a repeat.

Posted by: mountainmolehill | February 3, 2011 10:26 AM | Report abuse

I checked in with CWG this morning and was relieved to see that we would be dealing with little ice and then switching over to rain. But in watching the news this morning some of the mets mentioned that some of the models coming in this morning were showing a colder solution for the Friday into Saturday storm. I know you have posted above that you think it will be a mostly rain event but in your opinion looking at the models this morning is there any possibilities the models are shifting to a sleet/ then snow solution? I trust you all!

Posted by: soleil2000 | February 3, 2011 10:43 AM | Report abuse

Greetings from chilly Newport News! Will be back home tonight.

Question, RE: precip tomorrow evening. Any idea when this may start? Are we looking at dinner time, after 8pm, etc.? Gotta drop off a car for service on Saturday, and trying to figure out the best time. Don't want to be the one they're talking about who slid in the ditch on Metro Traffic, you know... :)

Thanks!

Posted by: southbridgemom | February 3, 2011 10:50 AM | Report abuse

@soleil2000

I'm not sure I'd say there is a strong trend toward a colder solution, but some suggestion we could get a little snow on the back end (and maybe a little freezing rain on the front end N & W)

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 3, 2011 10:58 AM | Report abuse

@southbridgemom It looks like precip starts up around midnight. It should be all rain by Saturday morning with the possibility of a little snow early afternoon Satuday

Posted by: davidstreit1 | February 3, 2011 11:12 AM | Report abuse

The latest GFS shows the bulk of the precip in the form of snow..

Posted by: bbirnbau | February 3, 2011 11:13 AM | Report abuse

Still a problem---"much unneeded rain" continues to target my Tuesday evening Clarendon Ballroom swing dances...they're still batting 1.000 for 2011. Sure wish the Nationals could bat like that...we'd win the World Series! And we need at least one COMPLETELY DRY Tuesday for a change. BTW none of my other dances or dance venues is having this problem...why are they targeting the Clarendon Ballroom which won't even cancel for an ice storm??? Wonder if the CB would be FORCED to cancel if we ever got a blizzard like that which Chicago just had...

Initial access and comment submission DOES continue to be a huge time issue...my experience with other sites suggests that embedded advertising or other spam "cookies" could be a major factor causing this problem.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 3, 2011 11:23 AM | Report abuse

is there any, any way that the low will track further east and let some cold air down to us for SNOW on Sat???

Posted by: WvWeathrLvr | February 3, 2011 11:26 AM | Report abuse

The "tech issue" that you're referring to is the same problem that I've had for *years* on the Post website.

The problem stems from Washington Post's use of numerous third-party advertisers, all of which download bandwidth-hogging Flash video ads, many of which consume 100% CPU and freeze my browser.

Posted by: stuckman | February 3, 2011 11:38 AM | Report abuse

@bbirnbau

Not so... in the latest GFS, the D.C. area is on the warm side of the 850 mb (about 5,000 feet up in the air) freezing line until after 1 p.m. Saturday. Hard to get snow when it's above freezing up there. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 3, 2011 12:09 PM | Report abuse

@bbirnbau I assume you are talking about the storm next week and not the weekend one. The latest GFS does show an all snow event next Thursday with the potential for a foot in the area. We will need more than one model run to have any confidence in this forecast but it is exciting to see!

Posted by: davidstreit1 | February 3, 2011 12:13 PM | Report abuse

Is davidstreit1 a CWG contributor? If not, could CWG please tell him not to post in bold as if he is. Especially if he's going to talk about 1 week out events in terms to get the snow lovers/haters all hepped up!

Posted by: concepcion611 | February 3, 2011 12:45 PM | Report abuse

Is "davidstreit1" a CWG contributor? If not, could CWG please tell him not to post in bold as if he is. Especially if he's going to talk about 1 week out events in terms to get the snow lovers/haters all hepped up!

Posted by: concepcion611 | February 3, 2011 12:48 PM | Report abuse

PEOPLE PEOPLE, stop using Bold letter if you're not a CW gang member. I read your comment and then when I look at your name I get unexcited because I no longer consider you comment credible, specially when you're predicting weather for next week.

On that note.... So what are the potentials for next Tueday and next Thursday?? I know we're far away but who cares... CWG, humor me please.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 3, 2011 12:51 PM | Report abuse

PEOPLE PEOPLE, stop using Bold letter if you're not a CW gang member. I read your comment and then when I look at your name I get unexcited because I no longer consider you comment credible, specially when you're predicting weather for next week.

On that note.... So what are the potentials for next Tueday and next Thursday?? I know we're far away but who cares... CWG, humor me please.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 3, 2011 12:54 PM | Report abuse

@concepcion611 and RJ16 I am a CWG gang member. You can check out my bio under David Streit! The Tuesday system is looking very weak in the latest model run and would do no more than produce a few flurries or sprinkles.

Posted by: davidstreit1 | February 3, 2011 12:56 PM | Report abuse

Um, David Streit wrote today's entry. He comes by his boldface honestly.

Posted by: LCFC | February 3, 2011 12:56 PM | Report abuse

Um, David Streit wrote today's entry. He comes by his boldface honestly.

Posted by: LCFC | February 3, 2011 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Hahaha, did ya'll not noticed that David Streit is the CWG member that wrote todays forcast??

Posted by: megamuphen | February 3, 2011 12:58 PM | Report abuse

to avoid all confusion, and possibly educate others, when people talk about what the models are showing, they ought to post a link to the scene they mean.... anyway...

i think what bbirnbau is talking about for this weekend is the "back end" stuff":

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_060m.gif

that's a bit of snow, right? maybe 1-2", right? that's more than has been there before, right?

david!
wow... i see next week's storm you're talking about. now THAT'S nice-lookin'. it wasn't there last run. or, i should say that it was way too far southeast of us to matter. but it's really pretty now!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p24_180m.gif

here's the loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_pcp_m_loop.shtml

check out 162-180 hrs.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 3, 2011 1:09 PM | Report abuse

oh lol. I didnt know...sorry!

Posted by: RJ16 | February 3, 2011 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Ah, the Day 7 GFS snowbomb.

Like death and taxes. :)

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 3, 2011 1:51 PM | Report abuse

I am confused. This weekend's storm really amounts to nothing. We have a weak Tuesday disturbance swinging through which is going to do nothing but then David Streit in a comment talks "about a Thursday potential snow event of a foot"? Am i reading this sequence correctly?

Posted by: GtownG | February 3, 2011 1:52 PM | Report abuse

JOE BASTARDI > CWG

Joe Bastardi is so much more fun to read. Unlike CWG he takes wild guesses at storms. Watch he will predict this storm of the century next week and you guys will all be mad that you didn't believe him this week.

@walter-in-fallschurch

"blizzard of the century" is MUCH more fun to read than, "Today's GFS is advertising a snowstorm next Thursday while its previous run and last night's European model had a suppressed solution with the low missing us to our south. Any of the multitude of solutions remain possible."

I so agree with you. Bastardi is the man and he is a great weather man.

STORM OF THE CENTURY FOR MID ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK!!! 12-18 INCHES OF SNOW FOR DC METRO AREA. IM CALLING IT RIGHT NOW. IF IM RIGHT YOU ALL OWE ME 10 BUCKS.

12-18 INCHES NEXT WEEK!!!

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 3, 2011 4:22 PM | Report abuse

SNOWLUVER,
you misunderstand me.

i'm saying reading bastardi is FUN, but NOT INFORMATIVE. in his world there's always a giant blizzard on the way... until the time actually gets here and by then he's moved on to the next giant blizzard threat. i think he's predicted at least 5 big storms for dc this year.

so, i don't think bastardi is "the man" and i don't think he's a great weatherman. he is great at getting people to read his blog, though... because it's so much fun...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 3, 2011 4:48 PM | Report abuse

@davidstreit-- thanks so much for your input! Sure appreciate it. Will use that and the PM update to plan errands tomorrow night.

Posted by: southbridgemom | February 3, 2011 6:53 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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