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Posted at 8:05 AM ET, 02/ 8/2011

Forecast: Cold and very windy again

By Matt Rogers

Wind advisory today; warmer weekend ahead

(originally posted at 5 a.m., updated at 8:05 a.m.)

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

The wind and cold combo is getting old.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Very windy and colder. Mid-to-upper 30s. | Tonight: Very cold and breezy. 14-20. | Tomorrow: Still cold, but less wind. 30s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Recent warmth may have given us the false impression that winter is ebbing, but the next few days serve as an irritating reminder that the season is not quite dead yet. Big high pressure rolling down from Canada sends in a burst of frigid air as we're dealing with windy conditions from an offshore storm system. The cold persists through this work week, but I'm seeing signs of a bigger, warmer break in the winter action initiating later this weekend. It spells the stage for a mild Valentine's Day to warm your heart. (OK, that was corny.)

Snow Potential Index: 2 ↓ - Odds keep sinking for a snowy Thursday system.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): A wind advisory is in effect from 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. Early morning clouds give way to very windy and cold daytime conditions under variable sky conditions. Most areas should see temperatures in the 30s, but a few spots (especially south) probably reach 40. This won't matter though as winds up to 15-25 mph (gusts to 40 or even 50) from the northwest make it feel like the miserable 20s. A few isolated power outages could occur. The air dries out quite a bit during the day so keep that lip balm handy. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Bundle up for very cold conditions. Under partly cloudy skies, lows range from the mid-teens in the outer suburbs to around 20 in the city. Breezy conditions continue, so you'll keep feeling that bitter wind chill. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): We're going to again contend with temperatures holding in the 30s in most areas - but at least the partly to mostly sunny skies are nice. Winds diminish a bit at only 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Clouds increase as a low pressure passes to our south. Most of the moisture probably misses us, but we can't totally rule out some flurries (20-30% chance). It's cold again with lows in the upper teens to mid-20s (downtown). Confidence: Medium.

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday features mostly cloudy skies, maybe a few flurries early, and high temperatures only in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clearing skies Thursday night enable colder temperatures with lows mostly in the teens to around 20 in the city. Confidence: Medium

Friday is mostly sunny with temperatures reaching the low 40s for highs. Mostly clear skies Friday night means temperatures drop into the chilly teens again except holding around 20 or the low 20s in the city. Confidence: Medium

The weekend is trending milder with a warm westerly flow becoming better established. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected both days with highs on Saturday in the mid-40s and Sunday in the very welcome low-to-mid 50s. Lows Saturday night should be in the mid-to-upper 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Valentine's Day Monday should continue the milder pattern and while next week should be variable, no major winter storms are lurking at this time.

By Matt Rogers  | February 8, 2011; 8:05 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: January 2011: D.C.'s second straight cold month

Comments

I'm also over the wind and cold combo. Come on weekend and warmth!

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 8, 2011 6:11 AM | Report abuse

So sad, really looked forward to this winter. Always next I guess. CWG thanks for all your hard work during this winter to keep us advised. I watch a few sites and you guys were right more than any of the others. Cheers to CWG!

Posted by: dannythe357 | February 8, 2011 7:01 AM | Report abuse

Dannythe357, this winter certainly over-performed our expectations with more cold and snow chances than should occur during a moderate to strong La NiƱa winter like this. But I don't believe winter is quite over yet. We could see a colder final week of Feb into early Mar again.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | February 8, 2011 7:26 AM | Report abuse

@rwalker66

Hear, Hear!

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday I waited at the bus stop with my jacket unbuttoned....today, gloves, knit cap, and layered up. Really don't like the cold wind.

Nice to see that there are no icy commutes in the foreseeable future. That's a relief.

Speaking of...when was the last week where there were no school delays or closings? It's been a few weeks it seems. I'm sure school administrators are happy they get a full week in this week.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 8, 2011 7:28 AM | Report abuse

chin up, snowlovers. after beginning as heavy rain, this storm gives us 1-3" of snow as it departs the area 324 hours from now...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_324m.gif

hahahahahaha hahaha waawaawaawa wawawawaaaaaaa

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 8, 2011 7:29 AM | Report abuse

CWG RULES!! YOU GUYS ARE THE MOST ACCURATE WEATHER FORCASTERS.
I KNOW SOMETHING EXCITING INVOLVING SNOW IS SOMEWHERE ON THE HORIZON. SNOWHOPE LEVEL TODAY IS A 1 ON A SCALE OF 10.

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 8, 2011 7:39 AM | Report abuse

Don't worry Walter, there's always next December 5th.

Posted by: eric654 | February 8, 2011 7:46 AM | Report abuse

eric,
not sure if that's needling me, or throwing me a bone...

BELLASNOWQUEEN,
no need for all caps all the time... inside voice... please. you look like an NWS forecast.

CWG,
what's up with the "2" SPI? are the chances really that good? i know the cahnces are never really 0, but shouldn't it be more like ".1"? the NAM and GFS aren't even close to showing anything. is there something on the euro? or some other guidance that makes "2" appropriate?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 8, 2011 8:05 AM | Report abuse

I agree with Bellasnowqueen... you guys are the very best!! Thanks for a great job again this year. I tell all my friends "CWG if you really want to know what the weather will bring"!! But, just one more kinda moderate storm, please?? I love spring... but it's still winter and we need more snow!

Posted by: flynns2 | February 8, 2011 8:10 AM | Report abuse

"a colder final week of Feb into early Mar again."
Oh good. That's the weekend I'll be skiing at Wisp! Yay cold and snow in the mountains!

96 days to beach season...

Posted by: wiredog | February 8, 2011 8:16 AM | Report abuse

@walter

Don't overanalyze the SPI - it's meant to be a general guide/overview and is not necessarily quantitatively linked to model output. We bumped it down (to a 2) from the previous day but are allowing for the slight possibility we could get a dusting from flurries (if the precip field trends a little north and grazes us). That's all that's needed for it to verify.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 8, 2011 8:22 AM | Report abuse

I'm beginning to think like wiredog....

Posted by: ennepe68 | February 8, 2011 9:12 AM | Report abuse

Forty to fifty mph wind gusts possible this afternoon.
Yikes!
Secure your outdoor items, otherwise a neighbor may be wondering what to do with it when it tumbles into their backyard.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 8, 2011 9:29 AM | Report abuse

2-for-1 haiku day:

The weatherman warns
beware the breeze; I say look
out for falling trees.

The wind, flown in from
Saskatoon, brings frosty news
Of global weirding.

Posted by: dclioness1 | February 8, 2011 9:32 AM | Report abuse

dclioness1 - thank you for your haiku.. all original work? Good rhyme too in the first stanza.

FIREDRAGON47 - Securing outdoor items is a wise precaution today!

I wonder if I will be able to breathe on the way home tonight when I do my walking commute? ooof!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 8, 2011 10:05 AM | Report abuse

Whatever happened to those single digit temps we were supposed to get this week? Did they disappear along with that low pressure system?

Posted by: JTF- | February 8, 2011 10:40 AM | Report abuse

@JTF-

Look at the comments from yesterday's PM update. I addressed your question there. We never forecasted that specifically, but just mentioned it as a possibility. But-yes- the lack of a wound up storm along the East Coast has diminished the cold air outbreak behind it.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 8, 2011 11:00 AM | Report abuse

@BELLASNOWQUEEN

Thanks for the nice words. Unrelated- I've noticed your comments tend to show up twice in many instances. Be sure to just hit submit once when you comment. Yes-sometimes it can take a minute for it to show up. Thanks for your patience.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 8, 2011 11:03 AM | Report abuse

jason,
thanks. this great forecast of terrible weather (nod to steveT...) has me a bit grumpy. it's the first time this year i've seriously considered the possibility that our next snow will be next winter.


when i think about
this winter's dc snow hole,
i wish we'd fill it.

when i read matt say,
"no winter storms are lurking,"
i feel like crying.

the weather wizards,
with all the cold air they brought,
forgot the blizzards.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 8, 2011 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Well, I put my slowblower back into the shed last night. Doesn't look like I will need it for the rest of the year. This winter stinks for us snow lovers.

Posted by: Getyourfaxstraight | February 8, 2011 12:26 PM | Report abuse

Can someone tell me when is the first official day of spring is? I forgot...do we generally see temps climb to the 50s in mid-march or late march? While the cold remains, the sunny skies have given me a sense of spring around the corner.

Posted by: GtownG | February 8, 2011 12:31 PM | Report abuse

GtownG, the normal high at DCA hits 50F on Feb 26th!

Posted by: MattRogers1 | February 8, 2011 2:28 PM | Report abuse

Getyourfaxstraight,
thanks for putting away your snowblower. i've put my shovel and sleds away. these actions, like washing your car, actually increase the chances of snow.

spring?
meteorological: march 1
astronomical: march 20
solar: ~ feb 5 (?)

i just came across the "solar seasons" concept recently - i think in association w/groundhog day. "solar winter" would be the 3 months with the least hours of sunlight. so it's the 3 months centered around dec 21.

"solar seasons" seem to me to make the most sense intuitively, but counter-intuitively, i don't think solar seasons match the temperature cycle very well.

anybody know what the northern hemisphere's coldest 91 (365/4) days of the year are? my sense is it's probably pretty close to meteorological winter (i.e., centered around jan 15/16th).

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 8, 2011 2:41 PM | Report abuse

Walter - You're a sculptor AND a poet! Who knew?!

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | February 8, 2011 11:47 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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