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Posted at 7:45 AM ET, 02/ 7/2011

Forecast: Mild Monday, then trending colder

By Jason Samenow

Chance of rain & snow showers tonight

(originally posted at 5 a.m., updated at 7:45 a.m.)

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

The second consecutive day near 50. That's a rare treat this winter...
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Becoming mostly cloudy. 45-50. | Tonight: Rain and/or snow showers late. 30-35. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny, breezy and cold. 35-40. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The nicest, mildest days of the week may well be at the front and back ends. After we flirt with 50 this afternoon, rain showers may transition to snow showers briefly Tuesday morning. Then it's generally cold and dry until some possible moderation this weekend. The once promising chance of snow on Thursday now looks dubious, although not totally out of the question.

Snow Potential Index: 3 (↓) - Thursday snow prospects are grim, but not done. A wet coating tomorrow AM?.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): We'll have considerable clouds ahead of tonight's weather system though some sunshine is possible this morning. Flow from the south boosts temperatures well into the 40s. A few spots - especially south of town - could touch 50 or so. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Low pressure mainly bypasses us to the east, but an upper level disturbance and cold front probably (60% chance) produce some rain showers after midnight. These rain showers may mix with and change to snow showers, from northwest to southeast. Enough snow may fall to whiten the ground in the colder north and west suburbs with little or no accumulation inside the beltway and southeast.Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through next weekend...

2_5_11.jpg
Light rain and melting snow create large puddles in roadways around Fairfax County. By CWG photographer Kevin Ambrose.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): A few snow showers are possible early (30% chane). Then skies gradually clear and it turns windy and cold. Temperatures rise little, probably only reaching the upper 30s. Winds from the northwest are 15-25 mph with some gusts over 30. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Winds slowly ease but it's quite the chilly night. Under clear skies. lows range from the high teens in the colder suburbs to the mid-20s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday is partly sunny, dry and cold. It's not nearly as windy as Tuesday, but high temperatures probably don't do much better than 35-39. Some high clouds may increase at night, with lows 22-28 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High

Thursday's snow chances at this point have dropped to 30% or less. Odds are better of a partly sunny and cold day with maybe some morning flurries and highs in the upper 30s to near 40. Most clear Thursday night, with lows from the upper teens to mid-20s (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

Friday through Sunday temperatures transition from seasonably cold to seasonably mild. Highs Friday near 40 may moderate to near 50 by Sunday. Sky conditions are mostly sunny in this stretch. Overnight lows are mainly in the 20s. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | February 7, 2011; 7:45 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Meaningful snow chances diminishing
Next: The winter the Arctic shifted south

Comments

What a pathetic forcast....sigh. Personally, I'm throwing in the snow towel for this winter and putting the blower back in storage. Lets just hope that this spring and summer is everything last year's wasn't.....cool and rainy. Last summer was just brutal to the plants. And to all you snow haters out there who will be inclined whine about a cool and rainy summmer, just remember what you have been saying to snow lovers all winter..."wasn't last year enough for you?"

Posted by: ftwash | February 7, 2011 6:02 AM | Report abuse

This forecast stinks. Sigh. Well, I have a very important appointment in Stafford Friday. Maybe the fact that I have to be on the road in the AM will be enough to make murphy's law bring on the snow- you never know! It's only Monday- models have time to flip :D

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 7, 2011 6:50 AM | Report abuse

Typical Washington Winter and we will probably have a typical Washington summer hot and humid.

My suggestion for snow lovers is move to Snowshoe. Over a 100" of snow each winter season.

Shame we didnt have one of the DC area winters where we get temps in the high single digits or low teens and lows near or below zero for a couple of weeks at a time and snow fall totals of a couple of inches.

Problem with are last snow storm was temps.
Ice and snow are slickest around freezing. Speed skaters love temps just around freezing because it makes the ice the fastest. It is a lot easier to drive on fresh and apcked snow and ice when temps are below 25 degrees and even easier when the temps are around 15 degrees. Almost like driving on concrete. And remember winter tires have tread compounds that work in temps below 40 degrees all seasons and all terrain tires dont.

Love to see a summer like 1980. 1980 was worse then last summer.

Posted by: sheepherder | February 7, 2011 7:16 AM | Report abuse

Howard Bernstein said this morning that next week looks milder right now and possibly the last week of February too. Echoes what some others have been saying about the end of the month.

Hope it comes to fruition!

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 7, 2011 7:18 AM | Report abuse

97 days to beach season...

Posted by: wiredog | February 7, 2011 7:33 AM | Report abuse

One of the better Monday morning forecasts in recent memory. Now if only it was a touch warmer. Here's is to an early spring!

Posted by: McCarthy911 | February 7, 2011 7:44 AM | Report abuse

One of the better Monday morning forecasts in recent memory. Now if only it was a touch warmer. Here's is to an early spring!

Posted by: McCarthy911 | February 7, 2011 7:45 AM | Report abuse

"SNOWHOPE" is on life support, and I am not ready to pull the plug just yet..

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 7, 2011 7:45 AM | Report abuse

This crazy, zany weather, truly could give a person Pneumonia.

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 7, 2011 7:52 AM | Report abuse

I wish I believed it was over but in my experience February has always been Hell Month, and we're only 7 days in. As Bombo has noted, there's almost always some significant weather event in the Valentines Day-President's Day time frame.

In Jefferson County, one year it was an ice storm so bad I couldn't get down my driveway for several days. Another year it was a terrifying windstorm of 70+ gusts for more than 24 hours. Maybe I'll exhale in March.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 7, 2011 7:54 AM | Report abuse

I'll believe when I see it, but if Accuweather's prediction of temps pushing 60 by the end of the Valentine's Day week hold true, I'll be thrilled.

Posted by: FH59312 | February 7, 2011 8:12 AM | Report abuse

We still have Valentine's Day to Presidents' Day to look forward to... some of our best snowstorms have happened in this time frame!! Heads up snowlovers, don't lose faith, our time is still to come!

Posted by: flynns2 | February 7, 2011 8:22 AM | Report abuse

Well, if it's not going to snow, I'll gladly take an early spring.

Posted by: veronica7 | February 7, 2011 8:27 AM | Report abuse

jason, wxperts,
the NAM and the GFS look very different 4 days out. what's up?

the GFS shows a little tiny storm barely getting going until 78 hrs - and then it only develops off the coast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_078m.gif

the NAM shows the storm developing over the carolinas and dropping decent snow there (before going OTS and totally missing us...):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/index_pcp_m_loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_p36_084m.gif

anyway, the NAM gives me more snow hope than the GFS. at least it's showing snow on land, and the cutoff line is not too far south of us. i'm doing my personal best to coax that blue NAM blob over us.

wouldn't it be funny/sad/typical if bastardi's "storm of the century" dealt a crippling blow of moderate RAIN to the atlantic ocean....

btw, frontieradjust, pay no attention of jason's prediction for thursday of temps in the "upper 30s to near 40"....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 7, 2011 8:28 AM | Report abuse

Snowing on President's Day is a Washington D.C. tradition. It seems to happen every year. When we get closer to it (or the day of it) CWG should list the weather on President's Day for the last 20 years. It should show an unusually high instance of snow.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 7, 2011 8:34 AM | Report abuse

Well, when I react to the happenstance of YET ANOTHER winter storm threatening to miss us or go OTS and barely react, THEN I know that, despite all of the allergy issues that will come with it, I'm ready for spring to enter the stage. I like snow just fine, but after Presidents Day, it just seems to be an afterthought and a bother. I'm almost have myself talked into being ready for t-shirts, shorts and flip-flops...

Posted by: ToBeBlunt | February 7, 2011 8:37 AM | Report abuse

I like Spring alright myself, but not in Feb. I don't like the heat, as I've said before. Ironic that I lived 14 years of my life in Tucson while in the Air Force. I like the snow. Its only fair that summer be milder than normal since this winter was such a bust, snow-wise.

Posted by: TBAlexandria | February 7, 2011 8:48 AM | Report abuse

despite the fact that we've had a lot of misses this year, we're only .2" behind our average for the winter through feb 6.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LWX/CLIDCA

i think the reason we've had so many "misses" and why it seems like we're behind is we've suffered all the cold all winter. with all the cold, every storm chance has been a snow chance, whereas normally they would just be filed with the typical winter rain we get 'round here and forgotten.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 7, 2011 8:56 AM | Report abuse

Lots of sunshine so far this morning here in Gaithersburg, I'm enjoying it.

Posted by: hawknt | February 7, 2011 9:07 AM | Report abuse

True enough Walter. I've always believed if its going to be cold, might as well snow. I prefer the lighter, powdery kind over the heavy wet stuff. Easier to shovel, and far less dangerous. Ice can just stay away, thank you very much. Don't get me wrong, though. I enjoy the beach as much as anyone, but I really don't think a record number of 90+ degree days is necessary....

Posted by: TBAlexandria | February 7, 2011 9:08 AM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

It's perfectly normal for there to be some variation between the NAM and GFS for a forecast 84 hours out-- that's still at a range where there's going to be high uncertainty and it's typical see big differences in the models. That uncertainty matters for the Carolinas and southern Va. - but not for us unless we start to see some kind of trend back to the north.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 9:31 AM | Report abuse

Fantastic forecast! Warm spring--we welcome you with open arms!

Posted by: KarenCCC | February 7, 2011 9:50 AM | Report abuse

Summer is for vacation time with my kids.. If I use it all up on snow school closings, then I will have none left. I am hoping for a 5 day school week with no delayed openings......for the first time since mid-December.

Posted by: 1Reader | February 7, 2011 9:51 AM | Report abuse

The NAM seems to have a better handle on this Thurs storm than the GFS. Still to our south, but much closer than the GFS. Watch that cold ridge line today. The 6z NAM has it draped across NC, while the 6z GFS has it draped across SC. I think both models (really all models) have the cold plunge too far south and getting entrenched. We have 50 today and 50 by Sat/Sun. I can't imagine the cold getting that deep. Thus, if we can slow the low down til later Thursday, watch that ridge line move up over DC!! Still holding out hope for snow!

Posted by: dsnowman | February 7, 2011 10:00 AM | Report abuse

"Flirt with 50"....
Hi there 50, may I sit next to you? Mmmmmm, so warm & cozy.
Will I see you more often this month? Will you come around next weekend?

I'd offer to take you for a drive, but with the current outbreak of potholes it would be a less than pleasant experience.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 7, 2011 10:12 AM | Report abuse

If it's not going to snow, then it should stay at least at about 40 for the rest of the winter.

It's not that we don't get the snow, it's the added insult of having to endure subfreezing temperatures, or even worse the SOUTH getting more snow than us.

So fine, no snow, but at least then miserable cold should stay away as well, that we could live with.

Posted by: superseiyan | February 7, 2011 10:34 AM | Report abuse

I am SNOW depressed.

Posted by: apeirond | February 7, 2011 10:44 AM | Report abuse

12z NAM still has cold ridge draped across NC, but it does throw a tiny bit of snow up to DC and southern suburbs. This should be fun to watch. My gut tells me this storm will only nudge closer rather than further away.

Posted by: dsnowman | February 7, 2011 10:45 AM | Report abuse

What's wrong with these statements ?

Fantastic forecast
Pathetic forecast
Forecast stinks
One of the better forecasts
(or any similar statement)

The adjectives modify the wrong item, namely, the forecast rather than the weather being forecast. Thus, for example, a forecast of "pathetic" weather would be accurate (fantastic) if the actual weather turned out to be pathetic. A forecast of "fantastic" weather would be a bust (pathetic) if the actual weather turned out to be miserable. The forecast is pathetic or fantastic (or the like) depending upon whether it verifies accurately, whatever the weather that is being forecast.

Sorry about this. I know what is meant, but for some wierdo reason this bugs me (nothing personal), especially when, as frequently the case, it applies to media personalities.

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 10:47 AM | Report abuse

C'mon Spring!!!

Posted by: Akabang | February 7, 2011 10:50 AM | Report abuse

Steve, for my money, you guys are the best forecasters, hands down. I like the snow, so its been a relatively frustrating winter this season. I think last year's snowfalls spoiled me. Any rough guess as to what March may have in store? As a NC native, I recall some of our biggest snows were in March.

Posted by: TBAlexandria | February 7, 2011 11:20 AM | Report abuse

Well Steve, the problem is people can't say "Pathetic weather" or "Fantastic weather" because that weather hasn't happened yet, it is just being forecast to happen. So they could say "Pathetic weather that is forecast to happen". That would be more awkward to say but would that be better for you?

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 7, 2011 11:24 AM | Report abuse

i see the nam looks closer than the gfs/euro but at most its maybe flurries?... although i doubt they would even show up on radar during the event.

not sure what the cwg guys think but ive alwayz thought the nam is at its best at about 24 hours or so out?

Posted by: KRUZ | February 7, 2011 11:35 AM | Report abuse

It's better than "pathetic forecaster"

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 7, 2011 11:37 AM | Report abuse

Darn that ground hog anyway--if he's to blame for all this!!! I'm not ready yet for spring. We still have THREE WEEKS of meteorological winter left, and 6 to 8 inches of snow needed to get our winter average!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 7, 2011 11:39 AM | Report abuse

And...when spring comes...let's have a WARM, SUNNY spring, not a cool rainy one as ftwash wants!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 7, 2011 11:44 AM | Report abuse

steve,
it similarly irks me when the news anchor or sports guy blames/credits the weather man for the weather. sometimes the weatherman plays along and apologizes for the snow that's forecast... or promises a "great forecast" of the storm missing us, or 80 degrees and sunny.

FIREDRAGON47,
"re flirting w/50" - cut out all that sweet talk. send him away 'til mid march.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 7, 2011 11:50 AM | Report abuse

The forecasted weather stinks.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 7, 2011 12:03 PM | Report abuse

On the satelite, it looks like there is a low coming out of the Gulf and then there is the low over Tenn., why aren't these 2 systems expected to combine and come up the coast? It looks to me like they would and if it were to happen it would cause quite the storm.
thanks for the excellent insights.

Posted by: givemeabreak6 | February 7, 2011 12:08 PM | Report abuse

The 12z GFS is all over the map...actually reforming a low off the coast on Friday into Saturday, but still going out to sea. I think the GFS is clueless right now regarding the Thurs storm.

Ironically, snow lovers need it to get warmer to snow on Thurs!!

Posted by: dsnowman | February 7, 2011 12:30 PM | Report abuse

What is wrong with you wingnuts hoping for a cold and rainy spring?? Crying about not getting snow all winter? Seriously?? I feel like I have awakened in bizarro world sometimes. Last spring was the bomb with perfect weather for months. It was gorgeous and long overdue in this dreary area. I hope we have many more like it. 5 days a week sun and 2 days a week rain is fine by me. We usually get 5 days a week rain and 2 sun in this area so be thankful when you get the sun so you can do some outdoor activities. I can't WAIT for this winter to be over.

Posted by: j0nx | February 7, 2011 12:45 PM | Report abuse

CWG

is there any reason for a zone map tonight, I know its a silly question but with the possibility of some snow, im just wondering if there could be any surprises in the morning.

Do i need to set my alarm for 3am to check for any accumulating snow, especially on bridges/overpasses that may need to be salted?

Just want to know what the chances are for a surprise shot of accumulating snow.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 7, 2011 12:49 PM | Report abuse

I need to put my vote in for the digit for today - it's gotta be at least an 8, if not a 9. This is the first morning in 3 months that I've actually enjoyed standing outside to wait for the bus & metro. To think, it's only 4 degrees above normal for today, we could have had more like it. Hope that the groundhog was right. :)

Posted by: vtavgjoe | February 7, 2011 1:02 PM | Report abuse

@vtavgjoe

Funny you should mention enjoying waiting for the bus this morning. This morning I actually stood outside with my coat unzipped and felt comfortable.

I'm so glad this winter is starting to wind down and come to an end.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 7, 2011 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Hi KRUZ - no need for a zone map tonight. I wouldn't recommend getting up at 3am!

vtavgjoe - I too am very pleased with the sunshine we experienced this morning. A good way to start a Monday, agree?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 1:24 PM | Report abuse

I suppose snow, in all fairness is still possible but you guys, snow lovers, shoudl really look around at other sites. mostly everyone is shifting towards the idea of sun, or just clouds. AND even if it does snow? with temps of 33+ on thursday? and 36+ on friday? nothing is going to stick....

Posted by: HeMustBeMagic | February 7, 2011 1:27 PM | Report abuse

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