Forecast: Sleet & snow tonight, temps to plunge

What's up with the NWS? How can they not issue a winter weather advisory or a winter storm watch for our area based on the forecast?

How deliciously unexpected! (Okay, I just wasn't paying attention.) As formerwxman1 says, a WWA would seem appropriate; here's hoping NWS agrees. How about a FedCast? I'm betting on a whole Capitol at least!

They issued winter storm watches for far northwest Maryland, but advisories will probably wait for their midday or afternoon updates (usually when the event is in the first period). http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/

@CWG

I have fresh SchoolCast apples waiting for a home...tell me where you want 'em!

CWG, PLEASE ANSWER,

is there a chance that the forecast changes and the dc area gets 2-4 inches.

thanks

Hi CWG,
As a groggy FCPS teacher who just walked into work, I have one burning question: Will there be school tomorrow? I know you don't have an answer, so in the meantime... may we please have zone forecasting as soon as you can make an educated guess?

Snowluver, yes, did you see the post yesterday? http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/02/mon_night_likely_scenario_rain.html#more There is definitely still low confidence on the specifics of accumulations. Also, Jason's forecast above does say 2-4" are possible north and northwest of the Beltway (in the DC area). Look for more updates on this site today!

if this unfolds like jason outlined above (rain→sleet→snow) there's no way there's school tomorrow. the "funny" thing is that fairfax county schools are OPEN today to make up for snow days...

keep that warm air outta here today.

How about a Schoolcast? :)

If I catch my Tuesday plane to Spain,
don't care if it's snow or rain.

But I'd definitely take 1.5" snow tonight, since I called c.a. 11" for the winter, way back when.

hi jerry,
where does the rain in spain stay, mainly...?

Drano - Hi there, we will get to it later today as the storm approaches. We want to get a better handle on the accumulations, but safer to speculate that school will be cancelled if you are north or west of the Beltway. Still, accumulation forecasts are in the low confidence zone at this time. We think there will be some, but you may also know your locale's reaction best--to a slushy accumulation--perhaps up to 4" well north & west of DC.

Will the snow stick? I'm worried it will melt on contact. Isn't the ground to warm?

I know it's still Feb. but I wish this "darn" winter would be over. The warmed up weather last week was great, who wants this mess just for a day off from school? This precip (rain,sleet,snow) likely won't be any good for outside "fun". Get me back into the 70's (or at least the upper 40's-50's). That said, it would be nice to have a couple of days of rain, we sure can use it.

danp3111 - conditions will change overnight. Cold air will bleed into the region. Precipitation will be of the frozen variety. The ground will cool. Remember the "Commutageddon" storm? Just mentioning it as evidence that conditions around DC can change quickly even with mild temperatures before a storm.

90% of what falls will melt on contact and the rest will only stick to the grass. Nothing to see here.

soyboy99 - indeed we can use any precipitation Mother Nature gives us. We do need it!

NAM's been looking extremely consistent over the past 3 runs in terms of qpf range for the area. Have the exact amounts for DCA and the temps been as consistent too?

@Walter, the rain in Spain stays mainly on the grain.

I'll check to see what Ivan the Terrible sculpts on Tuesday. Hopefully enough snow to make lobster.

Mother Nature is having her say about the opening of the ICC tomorrow...

@Camden

Thanks for the response. I'm hoping for one last snow day!

Your forecast for today made less than 24 hours ago called for "Mid-50s to low 60s." How did that forecast suddenly drop to "40's"? What changed?

if the temps stay this low. MORE...SNOW...

SNOW SNOW SNOW
MORE MORE MORE
HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY
JOY JOY JOY!
SNOW SNOW SNOW
TEMPS ARE WAY BELOW
SNOW
SNOW
SNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!

@rwalker66

The colder air arrived sooner than it looked like it would yesterday. That is all. David Streit first mentioned the uncertainty in the temperature forecast for today last Thursday and it's always been a low confidence forecast. Models have been all over the place with the timing/arrival of the cold air. In the end, it came in sooner. Locations to the southeast are in the mid-50s now, but we've switched to a north wind and will not see that. Hence the forecast was adjusted.

@rwalker66

You beat me to the punch. As soon as I walked out the door this morning, I could tell 60s weren't happening. Definitely a "bust" on that forecast if it verifies.

As for invoking "Commutegeddon" as an example here of how conditions can change, I think that's a bit different than this situation. Before that storm, we weren't in the 50's, 60's, and 70's for several days beforehand.

Much of this snow will still melt before it begins accumulating, on grassy areas first and then slushy accumulations on the roads. Road beds are VERY warm right now.

CWG ---- does this earlier-than-expected arrival of cold air mean that there's a chance this could all be sleet/snow?

I wish we could get a few inches of nice fluffy snow powder instead of the predicted sleet/slop.
But sleet/slop IS wet....so I'll take it.

@rwalker

Look at how warm it is just to the south. Woodbridge is in the mid-50s. It is a very tight temperature gradient- and pretty much impossible to predict the placement with much notice. See this map: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/analysis/temp/region_temp.png

Wow, Jason. Is it rare to have such a tight temperature gradient where 25 miles can be the difference between mid 40s and upper 50s? And yeah, I can't see how one can predict temperatures with such a tight gradient.

It's not in the 50s in Woodbridge right now. I'm just down the road in Manassas and it's 43 here right now.

@jms12

Potentially we see less rain, and mostly sleet and snow as a result of the earlier arrival of cold air. Midday update will have more on this.

@TheJoeGreene

I have a reliable source who reported 57 just south of Woodbridge just about an hour ago- but that may no longer be the case if the wind shifted. It's a tight gradient.

After getting up to 42F in the mountains east of Front Royal, it's already down to 35...

@Jason

Thank you for your explanations. It was just quite depressing to go to bed Sunday night thinking I would see 64 on Monday and then I wake up to find instead I'll be lucky to see 44 today. And to add insult to injury the 50's are close as you mention. Oh, well Spring is on it's way. After today there are only 7 days of meteorological winter left!

It is a beautiful 61 degrees in Fredericksburg - just a beautiful day. It really is amazing how much the temp can vary.

Wow, the gradient is even more impressive out west. It's a balmy 66 in eastern WV but only 33 in Pigsburgh.

Little bit of frozen precip already mixing in with the light rain here in Ashburn at 10:37 am. Makes sense since dew point is right at 32. It is going it be a very interesting next 24 hours.

@cwspy - I agree! My thermometer has reached 65 degrees. Wearing shorts today.

Rain sprinkles in Centreville VA.
The digital backyard thermometer reads 46 & the front one reads 40. Go figure.

In Lake Ridge (west of Woodbridge), temps have been (and remain) in the low 40's.

firedragon@10:43

Now, THAT is a tight gradient!

CWG

What do you guys think for Montgomery County Public Schools tomorrow? delay?

thanks

Currently raining in the Gaithersburg Airpark area & it certainly feels colder than 50.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IksO_FRK314&feature=related

that is what tomorrow morning will be like.

@fortheglory

MCPS will probably close

11a update: back up to 41F

@fortheglory

There's still time for things to change, but right now I think we see plenty of school closings around the area tomorrow given the combined impacts some accumulating snow on top of some accumulating sleet. -Dan, CWG

CWG: Does the earlier-than-expected arrival of cold air bring with it the possibility that the precipitation could be pushed further south than expected and increase qpf for the metro region?

(This wishcast brought to you by the letters S-N-O-W and the numbers 4-6").

FIZZLE are the letters that should be used. That's been the case with every "storm" this season except the one in late Jan. I hope I'm wrong, but I've put away the shovel and broken out the lawn chairs.

firedragon@10:43

Now, THAT is a tight gradient!

Posted by: mcaicedo | February 21, 2011 10:45 AM | Report abuse

That's what she said.

Please remember there's still a WEEK of meteorological winter by the conventional method of reckoning.

And by MY method of reckoning, met winter isn't really over until Ash Wednesday, the REAL beginning of spring weather! This year, Ash Wednesday isn't until March 9th, about as late as you can get. IMO the beginning of Lent is the onset of spring--and I say this as a Buddhist rather than as a Christian.

AsymptoticUnlimited and ash10, good ones!

Nice to see some creative humor on this blog :)

Cooler and breezier than expected on my run this morning. A bit of light rain in Rosslyn as the streets are now wet.

Weather.com says 3-5"?

@AsymptoticUnlimited .... my guess would be that the early-arrival of cold air means that the Arctic high pressure is stronger than was expected. And maybe that could push precip a little south, but let's wait for the experts to weigh in.

Weather.com says 3-5"?

Posted by: dcneedssnow | February 21, 2011 11:31 AM | Report abuse

That's what she said

@ noon- Temp has fallen from 45 to 41 degrees in last couple of hours here in NW metro DC.

Hoping for at least 2 inches of snow by morning. I would love to see everything white again before spring.

It looks like the NAM & GFS both are starting to line up in the snowier camp, does it not? Like around the 4-inch amount? Especially since the cold air is in sooner today than originally forecast? That would line up with weather.com's 3-5" amount.

"One sort of optional thing you might do is to realize that there are six seasons instead of four. The poetry of four seasons is all wrong for this part of the planet, and this may explain why we are so depressed so much of the time. I mean, spring doesn't feel like spring a lot of the time, and November is all wrong for autumn, and so on.

Here is the truth about the seasons: Spring is May and June. What could be springier than May and June? Summer is July and August. Really hot, right? Autumn is September and October. See the pumpkins? Smell those burning leaves? Next comes the season called Locking. November and December aren't winter. They're Locking. Next comes winter, January and February. Boy! Are they ever cold!

What comes next? Not spring. 'Unlocking' comes next. What else could cruel March and only slightly less cruel April be? March and April are not spring. They're Unlocking."

Kurt Vonnegut from his collection of essays "Palm Sunday". This passage is from a commencement speech he gave to Fredonia State University in 1978 and meant for an Upstate NY audience, but work here as well if you shift the months slightly. I think of "Unlocking" every early Spring and remind myself to expect the unexpected...

I like that, locking & unlocking. Makes more sense than our current 4 seasons.

Winter Weather Advisory for most of the region, calling for 2-5 inches.

Winter Weather Advisory up for DC metro for 2-5 inches of sleet then snow.

ahhh- Winter Weather Advisory is up. Time to increase the vigor of my snow dance :D

A winter weather advisory has been posted for the DC area for 2-5 inches of snow.

A winter weather advisory has been posted for the DC area for 2 to 5 inches of snow.

A winter weather advisory has been posted for the DC area for 2 to 5 inches of snow.

OPERATION SNOWHOPE HAS WORKED!!!

***********************

NAM looks great! much colder earlier. temp has fallen 6 degrees (to 45.0) here since 7:00am. i think this is gonna be WAY colder than people thought. i remember KRUZ et. al. throwing around numbers like 60 degrees(!) yesterday. hahaha boy, talk about your wishcasting...

one thing that concerns me is the projected interruption of yucky sleet. not good - not good at all. that's just dangerous and it robs us of accumulating inches. hopefully, wes will address the sleet thing in his certainly-upcoming update.

flyersindc

Where did you see 3-5 on weather.com? I was just checking them and they still show 1-2" for DC.

Temp in NW Spotsy was 62 at 11am, now 52, 10 degree drop in 1 hr. Time to put on the shorts & take the dog 4 a nice long walk.
I might have thrown in the towel a tad early, but still don't see this as a big snow 4 most of this area.
Hopefully this colder weather will keep the stripers at the 301 Bridge, if the wind isn't blowing I'll b fishing Tue.

I see that a WSW has been issued for Frederick Co. Is it possible that far NW Loudoun (Lovettsville, Purcellville) could possibly fall into that range as well since we are closer to that area? Just curious as to how my evening and morning reverse commute will be (I work midnight hours). Thanks for any tips.

Just back from a walk up to the grocery. I noticed the cherry trees in front of the townhomes across from Iwo Jima have a few blossoms. I guess they will be a bit surprised with tonight's weather.