Forecast: Slowly warmer, rain late Thurs.

Hmmpf. Maybe there's something to that groundhog after all.

Looking forward to some rain.

look what i bagged in my morning gfs snow hunt! 5-8" of snow on march 9th:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_348m.gif
------------

a little closer in time, but not actually showing up as snow, yet, is "the lion" (march 1). true, it has diffused a bit in the past few days, and drifted mostly north of us (and is still too warm for snow...), but those minor problems can be solved w/a bit of snow god supplication. joe bastardi has confided in me personally that he thinks this one will come together and be next week's "storm of the century".

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p24_138m.gif
----------

and here's the storm about which dan above says, "We shouldn't have to worry about any frozen precipitation with this system - unless the storm track shifts a good bit south, which is unlikely but can't be ruled out yet."

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_054m.gif

shift a good bit south...shift a good bit south...shift a good bit south...

Walter, I do love your insane optimism.

Looking forward to a deep drenching later this week. But for today; yay for sunshine!

"look what i bagged in my morning gfs snow hunt! 5-8" of snow on march 9th:"

Is that forecast for 2011 or 2012???

Hey Walter.

I think we are past the point of calling your outbursts "insane optimism". I think you need to see your physician and maybe have your perscription adjusted. Only the Doc will know whether to crank your Rx up or down.

There's a fine line between "insane optimism" and just plain insane.

Hmmm. I'm going out to Wisp (Western MD) Friday morning for the skiing. Think the rain will be over in the morning there, or should I bring a raincoat?

Retroace, there's only one remedy for this condition (I know, I've got the same infection), and it's while it is round and white, it doesn't come in an Rx bottle!

Kolya02: "round and white, [but] it doesn't come in an Rx bottle!"

Are you referring to being hit in the head with a golf ball?

Don't completely discount Walter just yet. Anyone who's lived in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic for any length of time knows that March can always surprise you. Personally, I think we've seen the last of the wintry weather. Its just rain and 40s until summer suddenly pops up like last year. I just hope we have a much milder summer this year. Like say, ZERO days above 90?

Possible severe weather Friday. "Very strong shear profiles" -- my absolute favorite NWS term.

SPC AC 230815

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... A FAST MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY FRI MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR WV. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL. STILL...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WITH THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE W...MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS VA...MD AND DE AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WIND WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TAKE PLACE...WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER KNOWN IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..JEWELL.. 02/23/2011

the team of physicians attending to my suite of snow-related neuroses assure me that my condition will abate around mid-march. actually, it's more like it goes into remission - as it returns every year on the day after thanksgiving.

kolya,
hail? graupel? i prefer my cure hexagon-shaped... ;-)
http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm

actually maybe mhardy is onto something as hitting (not being hit by) a golf ball is an excellent spring/summer/fall diversion. as are tennis, the pool, the lake, the ocean, BBQ parties, and even 90-degree days and the occasional severe thunderstorm.

I think we're pretty close to calling this a season for snow in 2010-11. Nothing showing up in the extended forecasts thru the first 1/3 of March. That's close enough to the Ides of March cutoff for snow for me.

Look out Old Man Winter '10-'11, the coroner is on his way!

TBAlexandria - an extreme global circulation pattern change, like El Nino, would have to be in place as the summer begins in order to prevent 90 degree days in DC. I don't foresee that happening, as of yet. Sorry to say we may have the climotological average (~30 days of 90 or above) -- but Ian Livingston can also comment on his thoughts. He is our expert team statistician!

I like how lively you all are this morning. I see we have a current UV level of 4 (moderate) so perhaps everyone's Seasonal Affective Disorder is getting nipped by the sunshine? :)

I know its was just wishful thinking. My first summer in the metro was actually very mild. That was in 2008, and I don't recall too many nasty days, other than the week in July when my sister and her family came to visit. On the wild weather front, I lived in Tucson for 14 years of my life spanning 89-2008, and I witnessed some interesting winter weather there. In 1990, it actually snowed 4 times in Jan and Feb, making it one of the snowiest years on record there. On Easter in 99, there was a freak snowstorm that dropped 3-4 inches on the Tucson metro area. I was overseas at the time so I missed it. Doesn't happen very often, but sometimes they do get it. In Jan 2007, 2-3 inches fell on the area too. That's a significant event for an area that is paralyzed by heavy rain.

I know its was just wishful thinking. My first summer in the metro was actually very mild. That was in 2008, and I don't recall too many nasty days, other than the week in July when my sister and her family came to visit. On the wild weather front, I lived in Tucson for 14 years of my life spanning 89-2008, and I witnessed some interesting winter weather there. In 1990, it actually snowed 4 times in Jan and Feb, making it one of the snowiest years on record there. On Easter in 99, there was a freak snowstorm that dropped 3-4 inches on the Tucson metro area. I was overseas at the time so I missed it. Doesn't happen very often, but sometimes they do get it. In Jan 2007, 2-3 inches fell on the area too. That's a significant event for an area that is paralyzed by heavy rain.

Camden,

I've noticed my own energy level rising slightly recently with the earlier morning sunrises and evening light til 6pm.

Happy that my motivation is coming back!

Looks as though there could be over an inch of rain late Thursday into Friday...the exact nature and timing is uncertain.

If we get into the warm sector the rain will more likely be in the form of intermittent showers, or we could have rather dry weather. If the warm front remains to our south, more and steadier rain is likely.

For anyone who thinks only DC freaks out about snow:

http://emergency.washington.edu/?p=440

It would appear that they are possibly expecting radioactive snow?

@wiredog

Sorry for the late response... I'd assume for now that it may still be raining there in the morning. If the storm picks up some speed, which they sometimes do, then maybe the rain moves out fairly early in the morning, but we'll have to wait and see on that. -Dan, CWG

Oh well. I'm not going to get there before 10 anyway. At least an afternoon on the slopes. And Saturday's looking tolerable.