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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 02/13/2011

Forecast: Welcome warmth on the way

By Brian Jackson

Near 60 on Valentine's Day? 60+ late in the week

originally posted at 5 a.m., updated at 3:15 p.m.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

It's not t-shirt weather, so I can't go too high. But 50s with lighter winds are a welcome treat.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, warmer, less windy. Low-to-mid 50s. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy, breezy. Mid-to-upper 30s. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, windy. Mid-50s to near 60. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Niiiiiiiiiice! Our welcome respite from the gray chill of winter gets even better today. We lose yesterday's gusty winds, which made highs in the 40s feel more like freezing. Today's lighter winds (though still gusty at times), warmer temps and some sun are a reminder that spring is not too far off. Tomorrow is warmer still before a cold front gives us a mini cool-down for Tuesday. But we'll stay dry, and a second, possibly stronger warm-up is in store for mid-to-late week.

Snow Potential Index: 0 (→) - Sorry snow lovers. Not even a remote chance of snow for at least a week and probably longer.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Partly sunny skies at times set the stage for a very pleasant day. While there will be periods of considerable cloudiness, the late morning and early afternoon should feature the most sun, helping highs jump into the low-to-mid 50s. Winds are still somewhat of a factor, but nothing like yesterday. They'll blow from the southwest around 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25. Confidence: High

Tonight: Breezes fail to diminish. If anything, they may kick back up a notch as a pretty potent clipper system gets ready to pass by to our north. The winds - from the southwest at 10-20 mph - should help keep lows above freezing most spots, in the mid-to-upper 30s. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast into the coming work week..

Tomorrow (Valentine's Day): The warmth stays and could even strengthen, but winds become a big part of the story once again as that clipper system continues to move by to our north. They'll whip up from the west and gust past 30 mph. Aside from that, partly to mostly sunny skies warm us to the mid-50s to near 60. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Romance is in the air beneath twinkling starlit skies - all that's missing is a full moon. For those planning a night out (romantic or otherwise), keep in mind that evening temperatures probably cool rather quickly into the 40s behind a cold front, as gusty breezes continue. Overnight lows remind us we're not done with winter yet, dipping to near 30. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Tuesday should be our coldest day of the work week. Still, highs around the mid-40s are warmer than this winter's standard fare, not to mention diminishing winds and plenty of sun to warm the soul. Overnight, we stay cool with mostly clear skies above. Lows fall to the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

On Wednesday high pressure takes hold off the Southeast coast, and flow from the south on its west side begins to bring back the warmth. Highs top out in the 50s under mostly sunny skies. Confidence: Medium-High

Thursday and Friday we really begin to cook! Highs in the 60s are a good bet for Thursday, with 60s to near 70 possible on Friday unless a cold front approaches and moves through sooner than currently anticipated. Confidence: Medium

By Brian Jackson  | February 13, 2011; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: A February week akin to March

Comments

This winter has been relentlessly cold and windy, so I welcome this thaw. I don't think winter is quite done, however. After all, it's still February.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | February 13, 2011 5:21 AM | Report abuse

What's this? A flurry near Baltimore? HUZZA HUZZA

Posted by: benzachr | February 13, 2011 7:16 AM | Report abuse

It's snowing in Fairfax Station at 10:00. Just flurries but the kids think it's exciting...

Posted by: warddm | February 13, 2011 10:04 AM | Report abuse

Snow lovers, Fearless Joe has good news as he tweeted this just recently:

bigjoebastardi: In the wake of the monster warmup, beware big winter storm central plains to interior NE that ends warm up week of 20th

Not only that but the amateur weather blogs are ablaze with snow talk for the 20-22. Some people just never learn.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 13, 2011 10:15 AM | Report abuse

I sure hope for no snow...I have to fly to San Diego on the 22nd...red eye back on the 23rd

Posted by: panthersny | February 13, 2011 10:59 AM | Report abuse

Where's our sunshine???????????
Looks like just another gray, snowless :-( & chilly winter day out there.
Uncover our beloved solar entity ASAP, otherwise that "7" is going down to a "4".

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 13, 2011 11:07 AM | Report abuse

I can't imagine that today is a "7". I'd give it a "4"...maybe a "5" if the sun breaks through.

Posted by: --sg | February 13, 2011 11:14 AM | Report abuse

Good. If it's not going to snow in any given winter, then it might as well be a warm winter. (i.e. as many days above the mid-30s as possible).

Since we're not getting any snow, I can live with the tradeoff for temperatures in the 40s (50s is just a bonus).

Posted by: superseiyan | February 13, 2011 11:17 AM | Report abuse

Inspected yard for signs of spring...daffodils about 2" up...cautious but trying...yeah! A decent day to get out there with my rake and get up some of the million sticks that fell in the snow. Maybe Walter can use sticks for a new type of sculpture?
Tina in Falls Church.

Posted by: tbva | February 13, 2011 11:17 AM | Report abuse

Here come the stink bugs!

Posted by: lilymama | February 13, 2011 11:24 AM | Report abuse

is there somewhere on this site (or elsewhere, i suppose) that explains the terms "partly sunny", "partly cloudy", "mostly sunny", "mostly cloudy" etc... and terms like "scattered", "showers", "drizzle", "light", "moderate", "heavy", "torrential", etc...?

for example, how is partly cloudy different than mostly sunny etc...? (besides the fact that it can't be sunny at night...)

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 13, 2011 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Walter,

The FAQs page explains some of that stuff.

--Bob

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 13, 2011 1:03 PM | Report abuse

"beware big winter storm central plains to interior NE that ends warm up week of 20th"
-Joe Bastardi

OPERATION SNOWHOPE IS IN EFFECT ************

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 13, 2011 1:09 PM | Report abuse

It's completely clouded over here in Fairfax. Don't think we nor Dulles will see 50 today. 50's to the east, south, and even west - even in Winchester and WVA(!), but we seem to be always the last to get the warmth. Well, we'll try again tomorrow.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 13, 2011 1:22 PM | Report abuse

rwalker66 , the same people got the snow also. Guess we are just out of luck for anything good.

Posted by: dannythe357 | February 13, 2011 1:42 PM | Report abuse

Wes, I love your posts, even though sometimes the discussions of 500 mb level winds and temps is too much for me. I know this mainly depends on whether the jetstreams and Lows meet happily over our area at the 500 mb level (see, I told you I don't really get this stuff!), but could you please just let us know if Frosty will be back again someday THIS winter?? http://www.flickr.com/photos/59497773@N06/?saved=1

Posted by: kolya02 | February 13, 2011 1:43 PM | Report abuse

rwalker66 - I have clouds downtown too but I have hit 51... I am optimistic you will see 50+.. keep us posted!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 13, 2011 1:44 PM | Report abuse

Have some of you guys learned nothing? JB hyped last week's storm too, as the "storm of the century." It's pretty dumb to forecast a storm 10 days out.

Posted by: bastings | February 13, 2011 1:52 PM | Report abuse

@lilymama...yup there was one on the window when, in a burst of energy, I decided to open curtains and clean the winter grunge off the glass. Hate those things.

Posted by: tbva | February 13, 2011 2:06 PM | Report abuse

52 in Bowie, winds avg 9 gusting to 25 (from Weatherbug).

I moved to Bowie yesterday, to an apartment with a wood-burning fireplace. I would be delirious with signs of Spring if I weren't So Excited about having a fireplace! Oh well, at least it's still cold enough at night.

Posted by: ChickenLady | February 13, 2011 2:15 PM | Report abuse

@SNOWLUVER

What the heck are you talking about????!!!! Don't you remember just a few days ago he was calling for the storm of the century and we got NADA!?!?!?!

Why do you pay attention to Joe Bastardi?? Geez...he is the worst excuse for a meteorologist I've seen in a long time.

And those snow hope snowflakes are really getting old.

Sorry to be so harsh, but I just couldn't take this anymore.

You can hope all you want, but most of these "snow dreams" aren't going to come true.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 13, 2011 2:17 PM | Report abuse

It's completely overcast in Howard County. I like the warm temps but wish the sun could break through.

Posted by: creativekev | February 13, 2011 2:40 PM | Report abuse

Looking at satellte, besides the higher clouds, there's a wave ocer the mountains slowly working out, still should be able to squeeze out some sun this afternoon.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 13, 2011 2:51 PM | Report abuse

I see a bit of blue sky to the northwest, here in the Brookeville-Olney area. It's been increasingly large.

Posted by: bastings | February 13, 2011 3:07 PM | Report abuse

I, for one, do NOT welcome the warmth. It's not even the middle of February! 50s, okay, but I am not ready for high 60s and 70s.

Here's hoping Punxatawny Phil was right and this will be a brief foray into the agony that is early spring allergies and trying to cool off when your landlords won't turn the heat off.

Posted by: dinergirl1 | February 13, 2011 3:07 PM | Report abuse

got up to 53.5 at 2:25pm here in falls church today - according to my christmas present: a handy-dandy "intelligent wireless weather station". (currently, 52.4 degrees, pressure is 30.01" and humidity is 37% for those keeping track...)

bobmiller,
thanks. that FAQ explains that "partly sunny" = "a mix of sun and clouds"... i suppose partly sunny means anything from 1% to 99% sunny? in that case, partly sunny could mean the same as mostly sunny and mostly cloudy. harumph... i was wondering if there is some sort of standard meteorological way of using those terms.

i didn't see anything there about use of the other weather words like "shower", "drizzle", etc...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 13, 2011 3:34 PM | Report abuse

Camden,
I went out for a long walk and the clouded over skies parted, allowing the pretty azure blue sky to show across at least half the sky, and the sun to shine. We made it up to 50, but not a degree more. I see that is the "High so far" at Dulles too. Of course with those strong gusty winds out there it feels much colder than 50 degrees. Let's hope tomorrow can do better, with both less gusty winds and warmer temps. That would be a nice Valentine's Day present from Mother Nature!

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 13, 2011 4:08 PM | Report abuse

@SNOWLUVER

YOU MADE MY SNOWY HEART SMILE.. THANK YOU

*OPERATION SNOWHOPE*

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 13, 2011 4:51 PM | Report abuse

@SNOWLUVER

YOU MADE MY SNOWY HEART SMILE.. THANK YOU

*OPERATION SNOWHOPE*

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 13, 2011 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Looks like snow haters got duked out of "sunshine" today..
"Ominous clouds, filled the sky, as a reminder
that snow will someday arrive"..

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 13, 2011 5:07 PM | Report abuse

Somewhat upset with this warm spell--TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER!!!

Blame that darned groundhog, anyway. Snow chances are rather remote now that it's nearly Valentines Day. Though I was able to get out on the trail and Tuesday night's dance looks okay--provided that TominMichiganPark and the rest of the much-unneeded crowd don't try to spoil things with a slug of raw, nasty rain.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 13, 2011 5:18 PM | Report abuse

Seems that (at least some) snow-lovers are quite immature....

Posted by: bastings | February 13, 2011 5:32 PM | Report abuse

One thing worth mentioning about Joe Bastardi's tweet is that the storm in question around the 20th or so, he does mention the "INTERIOR NORTHEAST" which is not us. Michigan may see some snow.

As of now, the SNOW HOPE is actually RAIN all the way up into NEW YORK!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_216m.gif

Would love to hear what CWG thinks about all this snow talk around feb 20 and on. From my understanding none of the models show that possibility for OUR AREA.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 13, 2011 7:27 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of SNOW HOPE... An amateur weather blogger posted this online earlier today saying this snap shot really make getting snow anywhere south of PA next to impossible... Whats your thoughts on this CWG?

NO SNOW:
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/myweatherlive/images/blogimage/gfs_500_240m.gif

Posted by: KRUZ | February 13, 2011 7:30 PM | Report abuse

rwalker, yeah it should trend a tad more mild for you tomorrow. Glad you got outside to enjoy today a bit tho. 50 isn't too shabby, right?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 13, 2011 9:03 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ, well, 10days out is that hyperlinked image. Pretty much an imagination of any weather model that far out. If somehow (5% chance?) It verifies & comes true.... yes that atmospheric pattern would obliterate snow chances. Low confidence when prognosticating that far out. Very low.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 13, 2011 9:20 PM | Report abuse

Camden

Yeah i know confidence is very low 10 days out, that was the point in me posting it. All the Joe Bastardi and SNOW HOPE talk is based on that GFS image.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 13, 2011 10:06 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

As you know, we don't buy the specifics of models beyond 4-7 days. All the GFS is doing is showing the typical La Nina pattern with trough in the jet stream in the center to west part of the country and the southeast ridge giving us warmth. Yes- that pattern would be terrible for snow... and of all patterns, is probably most likely (given it's a La Nina year and the NAO isn't strongly negative). But due to unpredictable chaos in the atmosphere (could the NAO start to trend negative?), any given pattern can break down at any time and/or the configuration of it slightly different which would result in an outcome could be far different from what the model is showing.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 13, 2011 10:11 PM | Report abuse

walter-in-falls-church......

I worked with NWS for a number of years. When I was swith them, NWS generally considers "clear" as less than 10% cloud cover, "scattered" as 10% to 50%, "broken" as 50%-90%, and "overcast" 90% or above.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | February 13, 2011 10:49 PM | Report abuse

I know this is marginal, but darned if i know what some of you hate so much about stink bugs (or shield bugs as I believe they're actually called). Besides there being a lot of them, they've always seemed pretty much harmless to me--don't bite, sting, get into your cabinets or spoil the picnic. What is it anyway?

Meanwhile--delighted with these hopeful words of warmer weather. Maybe my poor wind-battered garden will show some signs of life soon!

Posted by: angelicat | February 14, 2011 12:28 AM | Report abuse

MMCarhelp,
thanks for that reply. that's the kind of info i was looking for. now, if only all mets could learn and consistently use those terms.

angelicat,
yeah, unless your a farmer and they ate your crops, i agree that the furor over stinkbugs is overblown. i think it just gives us something to complain about...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 14, 2011 7:25 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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