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Posted at 11:35 AM ET, 02/20/2011

Forecast: Winds relent, clouds increase

By Brian Jackson

Spring says 'just kidding' with Mon. night snow chance

updated at 11:35 a.m.; originally posted at 5 a.m.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

It's give and take as we get rid of those monster winds, but we also lose several degrees off of yesterday.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasing clouds. Mid-40s to near 50. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Upper 30s to low 40s. | Tomorrow: Chance of a few showers early. Better chance of rain late afternoon. Mid-50s to low 60s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Well, thankfully we're rid of yesterday's ridiculously gusty winds. But alas, as we go through the day we'll also see less and less of the warming sun that we've enjoyed lately. Briefly warmer air returns tomorrow along with the chance of a few showers early and a better chance of rain later in the day and toward evening. Then, somewhat remarkably, we have a chance of snow late Monday night.

Snow Potential Index: 4 (→) - Some snowflakes are likely Monday night, but a warm ground keeps accumulation chances in check.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Sunday): Skies trend mostly cloudy during the afternoon as our next system approaches. The roaring winds that helped fuel numerous fires, cut power and toppled trees yesterday are gone, replaced by much more gentle breezes around 10 mph or less. The tradeoff is those increasing clouds and cooler highs than yesterday, in the mid-40s to near 50. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clouds obscure the sky overnight as the main area of precipitation associated with low pressure approaching from the west passes mainly north of the area. Still, some scattered rain showers are possible, especially in the northern suburbs. Lows stay fairly mild for the latter part of February - only dipping to the upper 30s to low 40s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek, including the latest on Monday night's snow chance...

Tomorrow (Presidents Day): A few showers may be scattered about through mid-afternoon, with a better chance of some light rain developing during the late afternoon into evening. But for much of the day, it shouldn't be so wet that we can't enjoy temperatures warming to the mid-50s (north) to low 60s (south). The potentially siginificant difference between temperatures north of town and south of town, and the rather low confidence in the temperature forecast no matter the location, is thanks to a warm front expected to be in the vicinity. Winds are variable in direction around 10-20 mph. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tomorrow Night: As colder air streams in from the north, another area of low pressure coming from the west likely brings a period of precipitation, which could be moderate to heavy at times. It begins as rain around mid-evening and may change to snow from north to south overnight (could mix with sleet during a changeover) before ending by morning. A warm ground limits accumulation potential. If it doesn't get cold enough fast enough, then there may be little or no accumulation. But if temperatures crash down through the 30s with enough moderate to heavy precipitation still to go, then up to a couple inches of snow can't be ruled out, especially north of town and on grassy areas, as early-morning lows sink to the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Low

A LOOK AHEAD

The overnight rain-to-snow should be finished by the morning commute. In its wake, Tuesday features clearing skies but a returning chill to remind us it's not quite spring yet. Afternoon highs struggle to reach 40 with a gusty wind from the northwest - hope you didn't pack away that winter coat just yet. Beneath high pressure and mostly clear skies, overnight lows drop back into the mid-teens to near 20 in the suburbs and low 20s to near 20 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

On Wednesday temperatures begin to rebound with plenty of sun and lighter winds. Highs climb back up into the 40s to near 50. Confidence: Medium-High

By Brian Jackson  | February 20, 2011; 11:35 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Wind advisory through midnight
Next: Monday night: Rain, sleet, then some snow

Comments

Fingers crossed for tomorrow, the GW Parade in Old Town and admission is free at Mount Vernon with festivities.

Do you think the rain will hold off until 3 pm?

Posted by: jaybird926 | February 20, 2011 7:49 AM | Report abuse

The fire on the Blue Ridge was still going strong at 4am when I fed the wood stove. This morning I don't see any smoke over there, but if the wind switches to the west, it will be noticeable in town.

Posted by: eric654 | February 20, 2011 8:05 AM | Report abuse

@eric654 - Where on the Blue Ridge is the fire? I'm planning to drive up to Blue Mountain, north of Linden, today.

Posted by: dottie_b | February 20, 2011 8:45 AM | Report abuse

Dottie, there were two Warren County fires yesterday, one in the north District of Shenandoah National Park and a smaller one on Blue Mountain.

http://www.tv3winchester.com/home/headlines/Fire_in_Linden_is_Somewhat_Contained.html

Posted by: spgass1 | February 20, 2011 8:53 AM | Report abuse

the NAM and GFS seem to be "souring" on this for snow. the most recent NAM (which had been slightly more snow-friendly than the GFS) just took the storm back to the north barely giving us any precip, and just the tiniest bit snow (coating?) at the end.

here's the 24 hours of precip ending at 7 am tue:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_054m.gif

not even much liquid to work with there. i hear the euro looks better, but can't get qpf from it. can anybody report on what the euro is snowing for snow?

brian, CWG,
i asked wes yesterday if: these things generally keep trending one way? or do they "wobble" back and forth? is this storm "getting away" from us? or could it "come back"?

well apparently they can "wobble", because this thing has missed us north and south at various times.

yesterday, wes mentioned the euro being the "lone holdout", and the day before ian pointed out the euro's better "verification" statistics. can you elaborate on what the euro shows snow-wise, and why wes seems to think gfs/nam over euro?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 20, 2011 10:11 AM | Report abuse

the 12z NAM went way north with 2nd storm tuesday. finding it hard to believe the warm air makes it in, in time for snow or at least accumulating snow. If this continues the trend north we could be in the mid 30s all of tuesday night with rain!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 20, 2011 10:12 AM | Report abuse

Walter - "snowing for snow"????
Something on your mind? Preoccupied?

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 20, 2011 10:23 AM | Report abuse

Brush and wild fires in the middle of FEBRUARY?!?!?! If that doesn't illustrate how DRY the soil is around here, I don't know what does! This is NOT GOOD, folks.

At this point in our absolutely disappointing winter, I don't care what type of precipitation we get, just let us get enough to provide some moisture...anything to help eliminate the Abnormally Dry and Moderate Drought conditions as we move into spring.

Posted by: TominMichiganParkDC | February 20, 2011 10:43 AM | Report abuse

Heres a 48 hour snowfall map from the NAM. We are now in the lowest end and if this storm keeps trending north, even just a little we will have no snow!

http://oi56.tinypic.com/15etyiu.jpg

Posted by: KRUZ | February 20, 2011 10:46 AM | Report abuse

firedragon,
i saw that and laughed at myself...

you snow, i shoveltimes flurry too much and flake typing errors. i get snow excited, but i just sleet to snow down a bit.

KRUZ,
there's still time for it to drift south again.

anybody,
euro snow totals?

tom,
the gfs shows a series of moderately-sized rain storms coming through here starting late next week and continuing into early march. who knows if they'll "verify", but at least they're out there.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 20, 2011 11:26 AM | Report abuse

Accublunder now calling for snow, so we'll be lucky to even get rain out of this.

Posted by: TBAlexandria | February 20, 2011 11:50 AM | Report abuse

@walter

theres still time for it to drift even further north too!

Pretty sure it'll eventually take storm 1's track.

Flurries or a few snow showers at best tuesday morning.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 20, 2011 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Hi Walter- aren't you obsessing just a bit over what looks to be only a touch of snow that most likely be gone within 24 to 36 hours anyway? :)

Posted by: weatherdude | February 20, 2011 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Accuweather videos are insane right now, really hyping up our area in saying DC/Bmore area could "maybe" see upwards of 6 inches of snow. So glad they are pulling the trigger with DC snow. Now i know all of this is overhyped! Flurries to showers. No accumulations worth mentioning. I still question if we even see snow.

When models dont agree on anything but 60s as daytime temps, game is over for snow imo.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 20, 2011 1:00 PM | Report abuse

weatherdude,
yes.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 20, 2011 1:14 PM | Report abuse

weatherdude

ppl around here obsess over even flurries so this is no surprise. alot of ppl are gonna be disappointed when they wake to nothing tuesday morning. because thats what its gonna be, nothing. maybe wet roads. unless you live maybe well north of dc then you have a chance for a little more, maybe.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 20, 2011 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Sleet biatch - 9 pm, Georgetown.

Posted by: prickles1009 | February 20, 2011 8:59 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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