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Posted at 11:15 AM ET, 02/ 1/2011

Ice threat tonight focused on northern Md. & Pa.

By Jason Samenow

Mostly rain from D.C. south; NW suburbs on edge

prob-ice-020211.jpg
Probability of 0.25" of ice accumulation through 7 a.m. Wed morning. Source: NOAA.

12:30 p.m. UPDATE: A freezing rain advisory has been posted for the region, excluding the southeast suburbs, from 9 p.m. tonight through 7 to 11 a.m. Wednesday morning depending on where you live. The advisory notes that in the District and to the south, where the advisory expires at 7 a.m.. temperatures are expected to rise above freezing after midnight. But to the northwest, the advisory continues until 11 a.m. - although even there temperatures will probably be above freezing before daybreak. As we mention below, we will need to closely watch temperature tonight especially from the District and to the northwest.

From 11:15 a.m.:This morning's glaze caused some slippery travel - mainly for pedestrians. Some freezing drizzle and mist linger but should dissipate over the next couple hours leaving cloudy skies. Temperatures generally range from 30-32 and should edge above freezing this afternoon. Few, if any, problems are likely for this evening's commute.

So attention now turns to tonight and tomorrow. Precipitation is likely to begin between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. from west to east. Around the District and to the immediate north and west, the precipitation may begin as light freezing rain. However, after a short time, a big push of warm air from the south should change the freezing rain to rain for much of the metro region. Rain may even fall heavily early in the morning as temperatures push through the 30s.

North and northwest of Montgomery county, a period of freezing rain is likely. The farther to the north and northwest you go, the greater the risk of significant icing as the cold air will be more entrenched and persistent.

Keep reading for a zone forecast...

feb2-2011-2.jpg
Zone map.

Here's what we're expecting by zone...

Zone 1: Very low ice risk. Most, if not all, of the precipitation in this region is likely rain. Somebody could see some light freezing rain at the onset in the 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. time frame but temperatures warm steadily overnight. Rain could be briefly heavy for the early part of the a.m. commute with even a rumble of thunder. Some sunshine in the afternoon could push temperatures to near 50 Wednesday. Winds become gusty in the afternoon.

Zone 2: Low ice risk. The precipitation *could* briefly start as freezing rain between 10 and 2 a.m. tonight. But after a few hours, any freezing rain in this region changes to rain with temperatures warming to the mid-30s by the a.m. commute. However, temperatures need to be closely watched in this area as sometimes cold air sticks around longer than forecast. After the rain, sometimes heavy, ends mid-morning, some sun should gradually emerge with temperatures climbing into the 40s. Winds become gusty in the afternoon.

Zone 3: Moderate ice risk. Precipitation begins as freezing rain everywhere in this zone. The freezing rain may change to rain late at night or early in the morning, as milder air creeps northward. And where temperatures are 31 or 32, the freezing rain may not accumulate. However, some locations, especially toward the Pennsylvania border, may experience significant ice accretion and run the risk of power outages. After 10 a.m. or so Wednesday, most spots in this region rise above freezing, possibly reaching 40 or so in the afternoon. However, incoming strong winds coupled with the possibility of ice on trees may increase power outage risk. This is another region where temperatures will need to be closely watched because slightly warmer conditions would reduce impacts whereas slightly colder conditions could result in crippling ice.

Here are Wes' latest thoughts:

The models have trended a little warmer than yesterday but still predict that temperatures will be at or below freezing for much of the immediate metro area around 1 a.m. Wednesday morning after which they finally start eroding the cold air for folks inside the beltway. This morning's NAM model predicts that the surface temperatures from Frederick, Md. stay just below freezing through Wednesday's rush hour while it warms to a little above freezing for places inside the beltway.
So around the beltway, there's the possibility of some icing when the precipitation starts up again this evening. However, when the really heavy precipitation starts, the threat of icing really goes down for the city. It's relatively rare to get icy roads with temperatures of 31 or 32 when heavy rain is falling as that usually means that the cold layer is too shallow to sufficiently cool the droplets below freezing. The NAM model is also predicting that by Wednesday at 4 a.m. that temperatures in the warm layer inside the beltway will be around 45 degrees which should warm the raindrops enough above freezing to negate any iciness on the roads even if the surface temperatures were a little below freezing. Therefore, we've downgraded the threat of freezing rain from our earlier forecasts south of Frederick county.
The NAM continues to forecast an unstable layer suggesting that for the second Wednesday in a row, we could have isolated reports of thunder when the cold front shifts through. Despite this instability, the model has trended toward lighter precipitation than it had on earlier runs and now predicts between .25 and .50" of rain. The models show a dry slot developing behind the band of precipitation associated with the front. Once the winds switch and become more from the west, temperatures could spike into the mid 40s during Wednesday afternoon if the warm air aloft can mix down to the surface.

By Jason Samenow  | February 1, 2011; 11:15 AM ET
Categories:  Latest, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: AM mix, rain or ice for round 2 tonight
Next: Weather Service website falters at critical time

Comments

Being in Hyattsville i am directly on the zone1 and zone 2 line. Hope the ice is minimal. When the rain starts, hopefully at the onset, im going out in it to dance! So grateful to be seeing rain instead of snow and/or ice!!!!

Come on spring!!!!!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 1, 2011 11:23 AM | Report abuse

CWG - will tonight and tomorrow's rain completely wipe out our snow cover?

Posted by: mciaram1 | February 1, 2011 11:25 AM | Report abuse

Be careful out there. Especially anyone who drives an electric car. It seems so obvious, but there are aspects of electric car ownership that I had not personally considered. I encourage anyone driving an electric car during the winter to read this. It could very well save your life.

--begin quote--
It is a basic fact of physical science that batteries run down more quickly in cold weather than they do in warm weather, and the batteries employed by vehicles such as the Nissan Leaf or the Chevy Volt are no exception.

The exact loss of power these cars would suffer is a matter of debate, partly because no one has much real-world experience to draw on. But there would be some loss. Running the heater to stay warm, or the car radio to stay informed, would drain the battery further.

Here's how thecarelectric.com, a pro-electric Web site, candidly summarized the matter:

"All batteries deliver their power via a chemical reaction inside the battery that releases electrons. When the temperature drops the chemical reactions happen more slowly and the battery cannot produce the same current that it can at room temperature. A change of ten degrees can sap 50% of a battery's output. . . .

"In a car where all power is supplied by a battery pack you can see where this would be a problem. The batteries don't produce as much power so the car has less power. The batteries also have to work harder so the effective range of the car is also significantly reduced. Charge time will also be longer. Cold has a negative impact on all aspects of battery operation."
--end quote--

Take care. Stay safe. Use your head.

Mr. Q.

Posted by: Mr_Q | February 1, 2011 11:26 AM | Report abuse

Is this the weather system that is now dumping 20" of snow on Chicago? If not, where is that storm going?

Posted by: flynnie321 | February 1, 2011 11:27 AM | Report abuse

Too wet & boring for me...though the lack of ice should be a plus.

Unfortunately, our hopes for Saturday's "coastal" are beginning to fade away due to those predicted highs of 39 or 40. Furthermore a warm spell tomorrow could MELT all the snow, making future snowstorms harder to organize! Only ThinkSpring & the rest of the mild-weather crowd will be happy, though it will be easier to get to my Tuesday night dances. With that private party at the Clarendon Ballroom I can stay home tonight.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 1, 2011 11:28 AM | Report abuse

It’s spring fever. That is what the name of it is. And when you've got it, you want - oh, you don't quite know what it is you do want, but it just fairly makes your heart ache, you want it so! ~Mark Twain

http://www.quotegarden.com/spring.html

Posted by: ThinkWarm | February 1, 2011 11:29 AM | Report abuse

@flynnie321

It's the same storm. We're on the warm side of it. We did a post on it last night here: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/blizzard_to_bury_midwest_north.html

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 11:31 AM | Report abuse

So if I am reading this correctly I can expect freezing rain through about 10am tomorrow in Hagerstown? If this does occur how long will the ice stick around once it turns to just rain?

Posted by: PhilR | February 1, 2011 11:31 AM | Report abuse

You guys should tell WTOP that the ice isn't getting here until 10pm because they are making it sound like rush hour is going to be a full blown apocalypse/tsunami/zombie attack/freeze over from The Day After Tomorrow.

Posted by: TheMot | February 1, 2011 11:32 AM | Report abuse

@Bombo47

Actually youre Tuesday night dance may be in jeopardy as the GFS is showing another snow/mix event around the tuesday time frame. As a snow lover you should be ecstatic for another tuesday winter weather event.

I for one have been literally dreaming of spring.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 1, 2011 11:32 AM | Report abuse

Hearing rumblings about a delayed "January" thaw coming near the end of next week. Any thoughts on the long range, CWG?

Just returned to Ashburn after a doctor appt in Leesburg. No issues on the drive. The sky looked lighter as though the sun was trying to fight thru the fog. Sure that won't happen though.

Tom Kierein mentioning possible street flooding tomorrow due to rain and rapid melting.

Thanks for the shout out, Bombo. Yes, warm and no snow would make me happy.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 1, 2011 11:34 AM | Report abuse

Bombo, since it's only going to be damp tonight, I think you should go crash the private party. Saturday's "chance of snow, high near 40" only reflects the lack of dynamic cooling in the models. If the snow comes and is heavy enough it will be cooler.

Posted by: eric654 | February 1, 2011 11:39 AM | Report abuse

PhilR - typically takes 2-4 hours for conditions to melt and become more safe after frz rain turns to rain (all surface temps must be above 32.4 for this changeover to occur though--bridges, overpasses, trees will still have ice for the 2-4hr period after temps stay above 32.4 threshold)

Frankly, I am not comfortable until temperatures stay above 36F for about 4 hours.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 11:41 AM | Report abuse

Here's hoping for no icing tonight, no power outages, and for the snow-lover crowd some light fluffy powdery snow that doesn't cause power outages.

Posted by: jcurrin | February 1, 2011 11:42 AM | Report abuse

ThinkSpring - I lean my educated prediction toward temperatures being below average over the next 10 days. Sources:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html

Note our average high for the next 10-day period is between 44F to 45F.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 11:45 AM | Report abuse

Got it, so in fairfax county...basically a non-event...business as usual. Thanks for the update gang!

Posted by: parksndc | February 1, 2011 11:50 AM | Report abuse

Thanks, Jason! Janks CWG! Y'all are the best - I had a 5 hour, terrifying commute from Alexandria to Cabin John last Thursday evening, but at least I knew what to expect, thanks to you. What about this rumor floating about the office that we're going to get two feet on Saturday?

Posted by: flynnie321 | February 1, 2011 11:53 AM | Report abuse

Here my true prediction. The Line for Zone 3 comes down further, cold air stays in place, and northern montgomery county gets blasted, as well as Frederick, Haigerstown, etc...

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 11:53 AM | Report abuse

I'm guessing that wind gusts following the rain will be more in the 40-50 mph range than 25-30 as many mets are predicting now. There are currently almost as many wind advisories as winter storm watches on the national map. The eastern edge of the wind advisories is at W.Va.'s SW corner, and I expect to see those propagate east and north.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 1, 2011 11:59 AM | Report abuse

@mciaram1

The rain coupled with mild air tomorrow afternoon may put a good dent in it. But depending how much you have, some may survive, as it's pretty compacted and has high water content.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 11:59 AM | Report abuse

The teeth have been pulled from today's vampire cloud.
One icy morning down, one more to go.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 1, 2011 12:07 PM | Report abuse

With temperatures looking to be in the upper teens in New Market on Wednesday night, is it reasonable to expect an icy start to Thursday or will the wind make a refreeze difficult? I haven't heard too much about a refreeze which is why I'm asking.

Posted by: Aaronj629 | February 1, 2011 12:07 PM | Report abuse

Snow lovers, we must relax! Let's not stress out about not getting snow. Heck, it's the 1st of FEBRUARY! Our prime month for snow!

According to this graphic provided by the CWG, 70% of our biggest snowstorms have occurred in the wonderful month of February.

It looks like there's also a snow chance this weekend. Just hoping it "threads the needle" and wallops us.

Some other reassuring info: DC's least snowiest winter happened in the 1997-98 season with 0.1"!! We've already crushed that total and winter's not even close to being over.

btw, I didn't forget about you, ThinkSpring and KRUZ! Statistically speaking, DCA averages a 12"+ storm only once every 8 years, 1 every 6 for BWI and 1 every 5 for IAD.

Source: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/storm-pr.htm

But I don't need 12" to be satisfied. 6" would be fine with me any day!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 1, 2011 12:13 PM | Report abuse

PEPCO's been praying for RAIN!!!!!!!

Posted by: Jimbo77 | February 1, 2011 12:13 PM | Report abuse

Interesting....NWS just issued a "Freezing Rain Advisory" for much of the area. Man.. those temps tonight are as boaderline as you can get in Loodoun County hovering right at 32.

Posted by: kdvols1 | February 1, 2011 12:14 PM | Report abuse

I keep posting this on threads that are almost over - sorry to repeat! Flying into BWI tonight at 8 (then riding a shuttle into the district, probably leave BWI @ 9 or so after all is said & done) - safe or sorry? Wondering if I should move my flight... Opinions?

Posted by: dcnative71 | February 1, 2011 12:22 PM | Report abuse

@dnnative71

You'll be fine. You heard it here first.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 12:24 PM | Report abuse

but, but, but...
Punxsutawney Phil is going to get iced in!

So much for an early Spring....

Posted by: tws1372 | February 1, 2011 12:27 PM | Report abuse

This is a question for the vicious winter-haters out there like ThinkSpring and KRUZ: Do you honestly mean to say that you prefer 40 degree cold rain over snow????

It's commonly accepted knowledge that in the DC Area, Winters are weak with little to no snow, Springs are short, and Summers are brutally hot and humid. Hence, it's nice to get a change of pace with some big snows every so often.

I'm sorry but all your anti-snow vitriol and ecstasy for cold rain have me seriously questioning your sanity. :)~

Posted by: kolya02 | February 1, 2011 12:33 PM | Report abuse

I find it hard to believe zone 2 is a low ice risk when the NWS has just issued a freezing rain advisory for that same area. Are you saying the CWG knows more than the NWS? Weather geek fight! ;)

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 1, 2011 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Is this the weather system that is now dumping 20" of snow on Chicago? If not, where is that storm going?

****-*


to answer your question and it's currently slated to hit western new york around wed 1 am

Posted by: nall92 | February 1, 2011 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Mr. Q,

I don't own an electric, but thanks for posting the info, interesting stuff.

Posted by: BEEPEE | February 1, 2011 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Hi CWG, Thanks for the updates, they are great. Question: I'm supposed to fly into DCA at 10pm tonight - think we'll get in?

Posted by: cassann981 | February 1, 2011 12:44 PM | Report abuse

The definition of hell is 33 and rain.

Posted by: VAresident2 | February 1, 2011 12:45 PM | Report abuse

@kolya02

Funny. A snow-lover questioning MY sanity.

Yes, I prefer anything over snow and ice. I can drive in rain. I can get into the office like I'm supposed to do on a daily basis. I'm not a school employee or a student, so I have to get to work.

Since Kruz helps keep our roads safe, he has an even greater reason to hope for rain over snow and ice.

As for use of the term "anti-snow vitriol", honestly, that's a bit harsh. I simply look forward to my favorite season of the year and I'm anxious for winter to end. We may be in the minority on this site, but there are others like me that are looking forward to the end of winter. My posts are directed at them. I might suggest that if my posts bother you, simply ignore them just as I ignore the rantings of the snow lovers. In other words, "live and let live".

Remember the name of this site doesn't include the words "snow" or "ice". It's a weather site, not just a winter weather site. And the guys do a great job at it.

Hope this didn't come across as heavy-handed. It wasn't intended to. Just explaining my position since I was asked about it.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 1, 2011 12:46 PM | Report abuse

Hey @Kolya02

I would just recommend a permanent trip back to Russia if you love snow oh so much. I would prefer 40 and rainy anytime of the year! Of course you would prefer cold and snowy as you gubment workers most of the time get to sit around in your warm homes and sip on warm (organic) tea all day but for some of us who have to work out in this stuff and especially drive out in this stuff and dont have the convenience of getting off work for even an inch of snow :/

So to conclude, yes i would prefer 40 and rainy all winter long. If i personally loved snow so much id high tail it back to Russia or move to Alaska! But im sure that wouldnt interest you because youd actually have to goto work in the state of Alaska during snow and Russia, well, hopefully you have work! Although I hear their trains are really nice ;)

Posted by: KRUZ | February 1, 2011 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Maybe it's my perception, but it seems that area meteorologists provide more coverage/hype on winter storms that are North/West of DC than South/East. I have seen it before where areas like Stafford/Spotsy/King George get ice or snow and they barely even mention it, whereas they make it seem like Frederick is a DC suburb. Just an observation.

Posted by: Showmethesnow | February 1, 2011 12:54 PM | Report abuse

@cassann981

You'll be fine. You heard it here first.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 12:55 PM | Report abuse

kolya02: Please, please give me a 40 degree rain ANY day over snow!
I've always hated snow and my hatred is even more intense after 2 days without power.
We've had more than enough snow for this year.

Posted by: pbj1 | February 1, 2011 12:55 PM | Report abuse

@Koyla02 BTW, ThinkSpring makes a good point!

Funny a snow lover would question a snow haters sanity. LMAO.
Apparently you havent spent a snowy commute home on the beltway. I question a snow lovers sanity for their love of unsafe driving, unsafe walking, snow lovers' love of losing power for 24 hours+, didnt that happen to you Koyla02?... Of course i guess not believeing in TV would make most ppl not care about having electric ;)

But seriously, i have no need to question a snow lovers sanity because I know they are insane! Just spend an evening out on the road during snow and you will see for yourself! Anyways, us here in Maryland dont need you gubment workers missing anymore days, we can barely afford to pay for you guys showing up to work, much less taking more snow days!!!!!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 1, 2011 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Yes Kolya02 - I would rather have 40 and rain than snow. For all the reasons that ThinkSpring mentioned... and as a gov't worker who was sitting (somewhat) warm in my house last week it was only because I took leave. A foot of snow and this gov't agency didn't even give us a late arrival!

And if you can believe it, I actually loved last summer! Maybe I'm not sane after all, but at least I was warm. :)

Posted by: rumbly45 | February 1, 2011 1:01 PM | Report abuse

I'll take 40F and rain for sure! Last week's mess resulted in my kids missing school for 3 days, no power for 24 hours, and estimates coming in at over $1000 to remove the numerous large tree limbs scattered across my yard and trim the remaining broken broken branches.

Posted by: FH59312 | February 1, 2011 1:02 PM | Report abuse

I WANT ICE... VANILLA ICE... GIMME SOME FREEZING RAIN

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 1:03 PM | Report abuse

@PhilR:

Hopefully your prediction of zone 3 moving further south is wrong. Let's keep the ice as far north as possible! Ice storms are no joke; it's not like you can enjoy the ice as you can with the snow no matter how old you are.
But...if you prediciton is right, then most of Loudoun is going to get slammed to include Leesburg, Berryville, Purcellville, and those places.

Posted by: MoCoPride | February 1, 2011 1:06 PM | Report abuse

Think Spring, my apologies...of course now I see that my post was way too harsh. lol honestly I was looking for a synonym for 'hate' since snow hater/lover is so overused, but 'vitriol' clearly was a poor choice. As for preferring the cold rain over snow, I dunno, I guess I just agree to disagree?? Rain IMHO is nice when it's the 'dancing in the rain' spring (or maybe even fall) type; in the winter it just soaks your clothes and helps the cold eat through to your bones. Ick!

Posted by: kolya02 | February 1, 2011 1:07 PM | Report abuse

Is it spring yet? *pout*

Posted by: eunicedelrosario | February 1, 2011 1:08 PM | Report abuse

I love: snow, rain, ice storms, hurricanes, tornados, thunderstorms, heat waves and cold snaps.

Weather is fascinating. I can't change it, so I might as well enjoy it.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 1:12 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ, ThinkSpring, and all other non-snow lovers:

Some of the things you guys say never cease to amaze me. KRUZ, you said, I would just recommend a permanent trip back to Russia if you love snow oh so much. I would prefer 40 and rainy anytime of the year!"

Russia, eh, KRUZ?? Hmmm, well maybe you should take a permanent trip back to Saudi Arabia. Maybe Kenya! Oh, I know!! How about Bangladesh; non-stop flooding!! Besides, I don't know a word of Russian and Russian food is horrible in my opinion.

Here's a link to an online travel guide for Saudi Arabia in case you're interested:

http://wikitravel.org/en/Saudi_Arabia

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 1, 2011 1:20 PM | Report abuse

@cassann981

I think your flight will be fine. Or at least not impacted weather in the immediate D.C. area. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Did the 12z model back off on the heavy precipitation? It also seems to come in later which would mean the warm air gets in before the bulk of the precip. Am I seeing this correctly?

Posted by: formerwxman1 | February 1, 2011 1:26 PM | Report abuse

Anyone else finding it nearly impossible to get onto weather.gov?

Posted by: johnnyd2 | February 1, 2011 1:26 PM | Report abuse

Wow!!! WGN is getting really excited about this...while we get nothing but a bunch of rain! They are talking about 18+ inches of lake-enhanced snow,, blizzard warnings, thundersnow [NWS are you listening???], people cleaning out bread and milk from grocery stores [Washington-style!], etc. etc. etc. THE WORST OF THE STORM HASN'T EVEN STARTED THERE YET!!!

It also appears as though my old stomping grounds around Menomonie/Eau Claire are largely to the north of this system.

Meanwile...we miss all the excitement... just an outside threat of more freezing rain.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 1, 2011 1:26 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ don't try to relate loving snow to being a government worker or about your incredibly incorrect view of us. I happen to hate snow and I am a fed. And I was in my office last Thursday despite the snow. Keep your government worker prejudices to yourself.

Posted by: McCarthy911 | February 1, 2011 1:32 PM | Report abuse

Other things I believe: the soul, the [rooster], the [kitty], the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 1:34 PM | Report abuse

Now now - knocking Russian cuisine. You have probably never enjoyed a real meat borscht. By the way I have nothing against snow, just the sometimes juvenile cheerleading on this site that really gets boring during high interest events. The weather-related analysis is what interests me here. Wish we could stick to that.

Posted by: clemons1 | February 1, 2011 1:34 PM | Report abuse

If we get a storm, I'm just going to sit back and watch the 2004 movie, "The Day After Tomorrow."

Posted by: missingwisc | February 1, 2011 1:34 PM | Report abuse

Bobmiller2

i cant go back to saudi arabia because ive never been there.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 1, 2011 1:35 PM | Report abuse

I am a total snow lover... and have been reading and commenting on CW since the pre-post days back in 2005. I comment rarely but read daily. I think the the snow-lover vs snow-hater thing is a bit ridiculous. Its a VERY tired argument here and no one is changing anyone's mind. ever.
However, I would like to point out that in the summer I never see anyone posting here that they just can't wait until the first frost hits and could the pool please close soon.

Posted by: AnneinSand | February 1, 2011 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Now I have nothing against Russian cuisine - you probably have never tasted a real meat borscht. However I come here for excellent weather analysis and the mets here do a great job. It's just the juvenile cheerleading during high impact events that gets really boring. Stick to football!

Posted by: clemons1 | February 1, 2011 1:37 PM | Report abuse

And, sorry, I know that last comment wasn't strictly weather-related, so let me just add that astroturf has come a long way in preventing rain- and snow- delays in recent years without being the abomination of a playing surface that it once was.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 1:39 PM | Report abuse

@CWG - So do you think BWI will be fine tonight around 8-9?

Posted by: dcnative71 | February 1, 2011 1:39 PM | Report abuse

@CWF: I know that you moderate this board only in terms of profanity and "personal attacks", but some of what's going on here from snow lovers/haters/whatever is heading that way.
A "keep it civil" warning from y'all would be appreciated. I know people are on edge from this weather, but truthfully I get enough of this sort of snippy stuff at home from my tween and teen :D

Posted by: concepcion611 | February 1, 2011 1:40 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ, I've never been to Saudi Arabia either and it's one of the last places on Earth I'd ever want to visit ;-)!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 1, 2011 1:40 PM | Report abuse

@dcnative71 - Have you read their forecast?

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 1:41 PM | Report abuse

@AsymptoticUnlimited

I believe you forgot to attribute Crash Davis.

Posted by: tws1372 | February 1, 2011 1:44 PM | Report abuse

@AsymptoticUnlimited - Yes, I have, but it's unclear to me where BWI fits into the rain/ice line and the timing. Sorry if my posts bother you, I am just a little nervous about my travels.

Posted by: dcnative71 | February 1, 2011 1:45 PM | Report abuse

@dcnative71 - Your flight arrives at 9:00pm. The forecast says:

"Precipitation is likely to begin between 10:00 pm and 2:00 am, from west to east."

What else do you want them to add?

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 1:47 PM | Report abuse

To all

A friendly reminder to keep the discussion respectful. Also - working on a new post which will be up shortly.

@dcnative

I think you'll be ok.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 1:49 PM | Report abuse

I really hope this is a non event for fairfax county. The kids have been out of school for 7 days in a row (3 snow days, a weekend, and 2 teacher work days). Things need to get back to normal around here.

Posted by: veronica7 | February 1, 2011 1:59 PM | Report abuse

Spring is a gawd-awful season. Between the mud and the pollen...

Bleach.

Give me frozen solid ground, and dormant trees any day. I'll wear a coat, thank you very much.

Posted by: mason08 | February 1, 2011 1:59 PM | Report abuse

@dcnative71

For the record, I respect you. Have a nice flight.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 2:02 PM | Report abuse

LOL! Maybe the post needs like buttons... b/c I'd like this.

@dcnative71

For the record, I respect you. Have a nice flight.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: rumbly45 | February 1, 2011 2:09 PM | Report abuse

veronica7 - That IS a long time out when it was not anticipated!
Don't know how old your kids are, but I am thinking of doing this in a bit with my little ones: water and a drop or two of food coloring in spray bottles & let them paint the snow! With the rain coming later, the color could just get washed away.

(http://www.frugalfamilyfunblog.com/2010/01/weekend-rewind-paint-snow.html)

Posted by: holly6 | February 1, 2011 2:21 PM | Report abuse

@Kolya02 -

No worries. We're cool. Hope you enjoy whatever snow we may or may not get in Feb. (I'll be dreaming of days on the deck and NOT shoveling.) :)

@BobMiller2. Since my screenname was in your post, it did catch my eye. All I can say to your first statement is "Ditto".
Trust me, you'll be happier if you ignore my posts. It's worked for me on the flip side.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 1, 2011 2:22 PM | Report abuse

People talk to much about stuff that is not weather related. ICE. WE WANT ICE.

Why are we in an ADVISORY if the CWG says that we are getting all rain in MOCO and sorrounding areas?

Somone is playing with our minds.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 2:23 PM | Report abuse

Mister Above Freezing Wins Again!! The "We might get snow, we might not" game is truly annoying... My snow hope level is getting low!!

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 1, 2011 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Mister Above Freezing Wins Again!! The "We might get snow, we might not" game is truly annoying... My snow hope level is getting low!!

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 1, 2011 2:26 PM | Report abuse

"Spring is a gawd-awful season. Between the mud and the pollen...

Bleach.

Give me frozen solid ground, and dormant trees any day. I'll wear a coat, thank you very much."

I love Spring! Mud is solved by sidewalks and there are pills/shots for the allergies. I still haven't seen them come out with a pill that will warm me up magically when it's freezing outside!

Posted by: UMDTerpsGirl | February 1, 2011 2:31 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: johnnyd2 | February 1, 2011 2:32 PM | Report abuse

"I still haven't seen them come out with a pill that will warm me up magically when it's freezing outside!"

Posted by: UMDTerpsGirl | February 1, 2011 2:31 PM | Report abuse

___________________________________


True. But alcohol is readily available in liquid form.


Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 2:39 PM | Report abuse

Mccarthy

im not bashing any govt workers im just saying with the way the economy is gov workers need less paid snow days and also we need less snow and ice because salt is getting expensive as is running the equipment ;)

but still if a snow lover questions my sanity then i will do the same to them. i think weighing the pros and cons of winter weather vs no winter weather will lead any sane person to dislike snow. fact is its just a huge hastle/burden on most adults. sure its pretty but its also dangerous.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 1, 2011 2:41 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

I question your sanity. Not because we disagree about snow but because you post too much on blogs. Oh, wait...

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 2:46 PM | Report abuse

Anyone looking at the storm potential for this weekend? Not sure if I'm reading this right, but this GFS for Sunday appears to show about .25-.50 liquid and has us the DC Metro area just inside the snowy/frozen side of things.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_114m.gif

I know, it's far out, but when a trip to Hawai'i looms on Sunday, you start worrying about this stuff early!

Posted by: homertuckumd | February 1, 2011 2:47 PM | Report abuse

"Spring is a gawd-awful season"

Posted by: UMDTerpsGirl | February 1, 2011 2:31 PM

-------------------------------------------

No it isn't. None of the seasons are "gawd-awful". I enjoy each and every season for what it is. I am grateful to live in an area that experiences all four seasons, whereas someone in Hawaii really just has Summer year-round.

Next to Winter, Spring is my favorite season. Even for a snow lover like me, it can be refreshing to have some warmer temps and blooming flowers after a long Winter.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 1, 2011 2:51 PM | Report abuse

There's a little TMI on here today- definitely some very odd comments.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 1, 2011 2:54 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ, come on! "not bashing govt, workers?!?! you said,

"Of course you would prefer cold and snowy as you gubment workers most of the time get to sit around in your warm homes and sip on warm (organic) tea all day but for some of us who have to work out in this stuff..."

you may (or may not) regret saying it, and/or wish to apologize to government workers, but that was bashing.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 1, 2011 2:57 PM | Report abuse

Many government workers are considered essential and have to show up no matter what. Forecasters with the NWS certainly fit that bill as do the guys working operational shifts at HPC. While working with the NW, I never missed a shift because of weather and I know a lot of other guys and gals that also always came to work.

it looks like the problems with the NCEP model site have been fixed as it seems to be responding pretty well right now.

Posted by: wjunker | February 1, 2011 3:04 PM | Report abuse

as for why we snowlovers get so giddy about snow is because it's so rare. it happens about 5 times a year. can you imagine the excitement over a sunny day if it happened only five times a year? or the excitement that would be generated over a thunderstorm if we only had 5 a year?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 1, 2011 3:06 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ - "Of course you would prefer cold and snowy as you gubment workers most of the time get to sit around in your warm homes and sip on warm (organic) tea all day but for some of us who have to work out in this stuff..."

Would you prefer that we be out clogging up your roads? I thought you had a problem with that. If I'm teleworking and off the roads, isn't that a better solution?

Posted by: weatherwatcher1 | February 1, 2011 3:11 PM | Report abuse

walter

i dont regret it because i know alot, not all, love it when it snows because alot get to stay at home. that goes for local, state and fed govt workers in general.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 1, 2011 3:14 PM | Report abuse

The 18Z NAM trended back wetter and has between 0.50 and .75" over DC as the frontal band pushes through late tonight/early wed morning. The sounding also continue to show some instability. The sounding for frederick, MD does look like a freezing rain one through 1AM. Inside the beltway, it looks like the bulk of the precipitation will be rain despite surface temps bing very close to freezing. The raindrops should be above freezing.

Posted by: wjunker | February 1, 2011 3:15 PM | Report abuse

weatherwatcher1

it doesnt really matter if the few govt workers are or arent out cloggin the roads when it snows because the roads are always clogged regardless with incompetent snow drivers ;)

Posted by: KRUZ | February 1, 2011 3:17 PM | Report abuse

@walter

You got it. When I moved up to Boston and there was a good thunderstorm, the TV mets just about wet their pants with giddiness.

Rare = exciting

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 3:23 PM | Report abuse

@WES, you mention inside the Beltway, and then you mention Frederick. How about us that live in upper Montgomery County in DAMASCUS...what could we expect?

There were many school buses late today because apparently the "little" ice we got last night was causing the buses to slide and not make it up certain hills.

Talk about dangerous.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 3:23 PM | Report abuse

UMDTerpsGirl, BobMiller2 - Spring does the worst job on my sinuses, so it gets my vote for overall "worst" in terms of seasons (especially in this area), but spring definitely vies with autumn for "most beautiful." In fact, were I to pick just one, I'd probably have to go with autumn - can't beat the smells/sights/sounds (crisp cool air, falling leaves, bonfires, and FOOTBALL!)

Posted by: ToBeBlunt | February 1, 2011 3:29 PM | Report abuse

@CWG -

A zoned schoolcast would be very helpful. I assume zone 3 will be closed, zone 2 will be delayed, and zone 1 will be open on time. What do you think?

Posted by: heatherdc1980 | February 1, 2011 3:33 PM | Report abuse

With the higher temperatures now expected and the rain event both helping to melt the snow, should we expect a flood advisory to be issued? Thanks for all of your great work!

Posted by: JLF03 | February 1, 2011 3:35 PM | Report abuse

@heather

Almost. Zone 3 will be delayed, Zone 2 will be open and Zone 1 will close in a pre-emptive panic.

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 3:35 PM | Report abuse

The Freezing Rain Advisories have been scaled back to end at 7am or 4am, instead of 11am or 7am. So that implies that the air will be a little warmer than first expected.

Posted by: rmm999 | February 1, 2011 3:36 PM | Report abuse

CWG-
How would the dynamics of the atmosphere and storm have to be changed to get a track that gives dc 8-15inches of snow instead of rain
Also, is this weekends storm, if any, goin to be fast moving or slow

Posted by: redskins-95 | February 1, 2011 3:37 PM | Report abuse

RJ16, The temp stays below freezing until 1Am and is right at freezing at 4AM but the temp of the warm layer is about 45 suggesting the raindrops will not be supercooled when they hit the surface which argues against freezing rain after 4AM for Damascus. That's my best guess but I certainly could be wrong if the cold layer ends up being deeper than forecast and the warm layer ends up being cooler.

The question about how big a change would it take to get a major snowstorm from this storm. You would somehow have to move the low pressure system from a track that takes if south of Chicago to one that takes it south of us near Hatteras. Pretty much impossible with this storm. We'll probably be looking at the potential with the next storm tomorrow.

Posted by: wjunker | February 1, 2011 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Or conversely Walter, if we had snow 50 times a year.... There are two freezing rain bulls-eyes now: Indianapolis (up to 1 inch of ice likely) and northern NJ (up to 3/4). We will have plain rain since our slight wind is now from the south and dewpoints are mostly above freezing so temps will not drop much if at all.

Posted by: eric654 | February 1, 2011 3:48 PM | Report abuse

@WES. Thank you sir. So we will get some freezing stuff prior to 4am... hmmmm hmmmmm.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 3:52 PM | Report abuse

eric, you said,
"Or conversely Walter, if we had snow 50 times a year.... "

uh... sorry, i don't get the implication. are you saying we'd still be giddy if it snowed 50 times a year?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 1, 2011 4:28 PM | Report abuse

Y'all should be careful about black ice down there. It's a problem even for experienced Northern drivers.

Some years back, I totalled the dealer's crummy loaner car by spinning out 720 degrees at about 25 mph on a bridge in northern NJ. (They REALLY DO freeze first!)

The car didn't have ABS brakes like my own, and I punched then instead of pumping them.

Posted by: Itzajob | February 1, 2011 5:25 PM | Report abuse

I hope we have a blizzard...like soon... I hope February goes out with a big "snow-bang"!!! - 3 ft./+...I'm praying, praying, praying and 3 inches of ice for tomorrow...PLEASE, Mother Nature?...

Posted by: 0126 | February 1, 2011 5:31 PM | Report abuse

I hope we have a blizzard...like soon... I hope February goes out with a big "snow-bang"!!! - 3 ft./+...I'm praying, praying, praying and 3 inches of ice for tomorrow...PLEASE, Mother Nature?...

Posted by: 0126 | February 1, 2011 5:32 PM | Report abuse

@ Showmethesnow....YOU are an F&CK$ing moron. Frederick is part of this region and more than a third of workers travel to beltway area. As someone that preiously lived in DC and walked to work...I appreciate the coverage on CWG. Since I now drive to MARC, their knowledge is even more appreciated. KEEP IT UP CWG!!!!!!

Posted by: BMSBKiller | February 1, 2011 6:15 PM | Report abuse

The message below was posted by Al Gore on his website 1//1/2011

" heavy snowfalls are completely consistent with what they have been predicting as a consequence of man-made global warming"

Posted by: geo82170 | February 1, 2011 7:49 PM | Report abuse

@BMSBKiller,

Completely missed the point. My comment was in general to area TV meteorolgists NOT CWG. Many people from Fredericksburg/Stafford commute to DC, however on many occasions when we (southern localities) get snow/ice area TV Meteorologists will say "nothing in the Metro area for us, as it will pass by down south". It seems that it is covered more for localities the same distance away but North/West. Also, not sure why the vulgarity was needed as I made an observation.

Posted by: Showmethesnow | February 2, 2011 8:16 AM | Report abuse

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