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Posted at 9:55 PM ET, 02/ 1/2011

Ice to mostly stay north; do your homework

By Jason Samenow
Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

The forecast we posted in our PM Update remains on track. Temperatures right now range from around freezing north of the District to the mid- to even upper 30s south. BWI Airport is currently 32, Dulles 34, and Reagan 35. These temps could drop another degree or two over the next couple of hours before stabilizing and then rise during the pre-dawn hours. By rush hour, most spots in the metro region should be safely above freezing.

Radar shows rain moving in from the west, with some freezing rain over western Maryland. This precipitation will overspread the region in the next couple of hours. Rain is the dominant form of precipitation overnight although some freezing rain is possible mainly north and northwest of the District around the onset or a little after.


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

From south to north, any freezing rain should change to rain between 1 and 2 a.m. and the predawn hours. There is a slight risk temperatures remain around freezing through dawn in some of the colder areas of western Montgomery county, northern Howard county and especially Frederick county. But even if that's the case, temperatures would be marginally freezing and ice accretion minimized. The real risk of severe icing is north of the Mason Dixon line.

The bottom line is that most, if not all of the metro region should be ice-free for the a.m. commute. But check temperatures before heading out in the morning and allow extra time due to the possibility of some heavy showers. And can you believe quite a few spots in the region (especially south of town) may pass 50 tomorrow afternoon?

SchoolCast (Frederick co.):


SchoolCast
(Loudoun, Montgomery & Howard co.):


SchoolCast
(everywhere else):

By Jason Samenow  | February 1, 2011; 9:55 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, Updates  
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Next: No shadow for groundhog Phil: Winter to end?

Comments

Alright so free carwashes tonight and tomorrow.. that's good. Maybe my Jeep will be blue again in the morning rather than grayish white from all the salt.

When do we get to talk about what will happen on Saturday? Snow? Rain?

Posted by: CuseFan07 | February 1, 2011 10:03 PM | Report abuse

Not a huge amount of rain - but if you haven't already, make sure that your street and walkout drains are not blocked...

Posted by: msienkiewicz | February 1, 2011 10:04 PM | Report abuse

It's 30.0F right now in eastern Warren County with light freezing rain. If interested, I posted some pictures I took this morning of rime ice formations on trees.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 1, 2011 10:05 PM | Report abuse

CWG
what do you think about Loudoun county specifically?

Posted by: bobdello01 | February 1, 2011 10:06 PM | Report abuse

By the way, the 1.5 apples, indicating a slight chance of a delay, for Montgomery county is generous. I'm thinking an on-time opening is more likely.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 10:07 PM | Report abuse

@spgass1 - great photos! I've never seen ice formations quite like that.

Posted by: CuseFan07 | February 1, 2011 10:12 PM | Report abuse

Jason. I like your comment about MCPS. You are using reverse jinx. Watch, we will have a 2 hour delay. I'll bet half an apple.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 10:15 PM | Report abuse

@spgass1 - Amazing. I never saw rime ice formations; how do they form? Off to Google it...
Thanks for the stunning photos@

Posted by: Hoyas4Ever | February 1, 2011 10:16 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for this! Plus, I think school cast is just a great feature. Thanks again!

Posted by: LGB31 | February 1, 2011 10:18 PM | Report abuse

@RJ 16
I

Posted by: anon34 | February 1, 2011 10:21 PM | Report abuse

@RJ16 I

Posted by: anon34 | February 1, 2011 10:23 PM | Report abuse

I appreciate the zoned forecast quite a bit! Thanks for giving info even for those of us who are far out from the city!

Posted by: kersl | February 1, 2011 10:26 PM | Report abuse

The 00Z nam sounding still show instability but I doubt anyone will hear thunder even if we get convection. To get lightning and thunder you need some snow or ice to be involved and the unstable layer doesn't extend far enough up in the atmosphere to ensure that there will be some ice involved as the temperatures in the unstable layer are pretty warm. Sorry for what I think will have been a false alarm. I didn't think through the implications of the warm temperatures in that layer. There still is likely to be moderate to heavy rainfall embedded withing the band associated with the frontal passage.

Posted by: wjunker | February 1, 2011 10:26 PM | Report abuse

32 degrees with freezing drizzle in Eldersburg, MD. Going to be right on the freezing line for a while up this way. Sure feels cold out!

Posted by: DLO1975 | February 1, 2011 10:27 PM | Report abuse

spgass1,
that rime looks cool. does it all form downwind? on that close up, why are they all pointing sideways?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 1, 2011 10:30 PM | Report abuse

Thanks CWG. Thankfully it will be warm. This could have been a nightmare if it were a bit colder.

Posted by: Gooddogs | February 1, 2011 10:32 PM | Report abuse

@Jason-CapitalWeatherGang

You are delusional if you think MoCo will open on time. If even one block in the county has slick sideways, they will delay. Consider this a bet.

Posted by: heatherdc1980 | February 1, 2011 10:33 PM | Report abuse

@RJ16 - You crack me up! Just flushed some ice cubes down the toilet in your honor (after I drank the gin and tonic).

Posted by: Hoyas4Ever | February 1, 2011 10:33 PM | Report abuse

"Mister Above Freezing" is laughing at all us snow lovers!!!!

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 1, 2011 10:39 PM | Report abuse

"Mister Above Freezing" is laughing at all us snow lovers!!!!

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 1, 2011 10:39 PM | Report abuse

I agree with Heather mig dawn for Moco!

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | February 1, 2011 10:45 PM | Report abuse

If the school cast for "all others" includes Fairfax (FCPS) then you must be joking. FCPS virtually never holds a full day of classes when there is precipitation in the forecast in the months of Dec., Jan, Feb, or March. NFW. It is a Pavlovian response: hear the sound of precip? Then open late, close early or cancel school (cue the drooling by teachers and admin staff). No thought, judgement or responsibility required. Never mind that we haven't had school since January 25th thanks to weather and so-called "teacher workdays." FCPS apparently believes the county is populated by stay-at-home-parents without careers (as evidenced by the half-day Monday policy for the entirety of elementary school). For all frustrated FCPS parents, let's hope I'm dead wrong.

Posted by: conchfc | February 1, 2011 10:48 PM | Report abuse

I probably need Wes's help to describe why the spikes formed... I guessed it was rime, but could it be air hoar?

Posted by: spgass1 | February 1, 2011 10:51 PM | Report abuse

Good, looks to be just rain here in NOVA.

Posted by: fakedude2 | February 1, 2011 11:05 PM | Report abuse

I realize this is not Capital Arborists Gang (and that this is a moot point for most of us tonight), but is it relatively safe to assume that most of our WIMPY trees & branches have already come down and now only the "STRONG ones" remain standing? Trying to be optimistic here...!!! :)

Posted by: klik-klik | February 1, 2011 11:27 PM | Report abuse

Gang - Still thinking just rain here. But, just FYI...Reston is at 33 now (was at 34 with Dulles during your posting)...fell 3 degrees in 2 hours. Also, I have a friend NW of Ashburn who called and said it was snowing (he was challanging my/your forecast)...could just be sleet but I find that a bid odd. Still thinking rain but seems a bit colder than I expected.

Posted by: parksndc | February 1, 2011 11:37 PM | Report abuse

Temperature is below freezing in Gaithersburg and we getting freezing raindizzle yo ... How about them apples.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 11:43 PM | Report abuse

Frederick up 2 degrees from last hour, now at 34. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2011 12:00 AM | Report abuse

SPGass - love the dogwood shot!
Off-topic, but has anyone else seen the new Weather Underground redesign?

If it hits 50 here in Silver Spring tomorrow, I will be eating lunch outside with an umbrella, unless there are sheets of rain blowing sideways. I am so happy for it to just get above 40 anymore!

Posted by: vtavgjoe | February 2, 2011 12:02 AM | Report abuse

weather.com and noaa.gov are reporting light snow in leesburg. Can anyone confirm this? I find it very unlikely that this is actually occurring since it is rain or freezing rain everywhere else!

Posted by: rapotter | February 2, 2011 12:40 AM | Report abuse

rapotter, I'm a few miles east of Leesburg and it's just rain here.

Posted by: natsncats | February 2, 2011 12:49 AM | Report abuse

Friend of mine west of Leesburg is saying it's snowing, not sticking, but snowing...this thing is playing out differently than I expected. Just had heavy rain in Reston, at 34 degrees. Gang - Any input? Or was this in the cards?

Posted by: parksndc | February 2, 2011 1:03 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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