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Posted at 2:15 PM ET, 02/ 6/2011

Meaningful snow chances diminishing

By Wes Junker

Snow haters: your time may be coming

There are two chances for snow this week but neither look particularly promising for snow lovers.

The first opportunity comes from low pressure moving through the area late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. It is expected to produce a period of light rain that could end as snow early Tuesday morning. The event has two strikes against it in terms of producing meaningful accumulations. First, the system is not expected to have much moisture with it so precipitation amounts should be light. Second, and more importantly, temperatures Monday afternoon will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. And Monday night into Tuesday morning, they are not expected to fall below freezing until after the precipitation ends except across the typical colder locations north of west of the city. The warm temperatures should preclude accumulating snow.

Our second opportunity for snow would be Thursday but right now most of the model guidance keeps the storm far enough south to either give us a glancing blow or miss us entirely. The models have trended toward a more suppressed southerly and easterly storm track over the past several days. But this out-to-sea track is not yet cast in stone. Plenty can change between now and Thursday.

Snow haters have another reason to rejoice. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting a pattern change favoring warmer, drier weather. While the D.C. area is near the northern edge of the region where CPC is predicting above normal temperatures, the consensus of the various models and ensemble system is that the storm track during the period Feb 13-20 will be to our north and west putting us on the warm side of most storms once the Thursday threat is behind us. Snow lovers can find solace in the fact that long range forecasts even of the mean pattern are not always that accurate.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Monday night & Tuesday morning storm system

020811-gfs.gif

This system is likely to be mostly rain with a chance that it could end as a little non-accumulating wet snow. The track of the upper level disturbance (vorticity maximum, the "x" over central North Carolina above right) across northern North Carolina would normally support snow as such a track is conducive for a low to develop off the North Carolina coast. In this case, however, the low tracks a little too far east to give the metro region anything more than light precipitation.

The problem for snow lovers is the dip in the flow (as seen at 500 mb or 18,000) across the Great Lakes acts to lower pressures north of the District while also keeping a trough (cold front) just to our west during the period of the most intense (but still relatively light) precipitation. At 1 a.m. Tuesday morning, the freezing line (the blue line above left) is still located in eastern West Virginia well west of D.C. The temperatures don't fall to below freezing across the D.C. area until the trough (cold front) that is producing the precipitation is east of the region. The temperatures aloft do fall below freezing which makes some snow possible as the surface temperatures fall into the 30s but with above freezing surface temperatures, accumulating snow is highly unlikely.

Thursday storm system

During the past several days, the models have been split between a solution that would produce a possible significant snowstorm over the area and one that would miss us to the south. Yesterday morning's European model was still predicting heavy snow across the region even though its ensemble members and the GFS were predicting a much more suppressed storm track.

Last night and this morning, the European model joined the stampede toward a weaker storm, simulating a more southerly storm track which results in no snow for our area. The model consensus now is a snow haters delight with the bulk of the models delivering little or no snow for the immediate Washington area.

Such a storm track is not yet quite set in stone but significant changes are needed in the model's handling of two different features in order for a snowstorm to impact the area.

spaghetti-021111.gif
GEFS ensemble mean forecast as the southern stream system starts to shear eastward (left) and
spaghetti plot (right) for the same time (1 a.m. Wed. morning).

All the models predict that a disturbance will dig into the southwest developing a trough along the southern jet stream. The projected trough position at 1 a.m. Wednesday morning is shown (above left) with the trough position shown by the magenta line. Such a southern stream trough is usually favorable for a storm tracking across the Gulf coast region. How far north a surface low tracks is usually determined how well it can maintain its intensity and/or phase with a northern stream system.

In this case, a massive vortex, the blue area across eastern Canada and the northeast above right, is acting to suppress the southern stream while also helping to shear it apart so that it weakens as it moves east.

The problem for snow lovers is that the spaghetti diagram (above left) is suggesting that all of its members are pretty tightly clustered in their handling of that massive vortex. The tight clustering suggests that while there may be some potential for the system to edge sufficiently northward to give us a glancing blow, there is probably even more potential for the system to miss us to the south and that a major snowstorm is probably a long shot as it would require the southern stream to be stronger and the northern stream vortex to be quite a bit weaker than forecast.

Longer range look

long-range0211.gif

Readers looking forward to enjoying the outdoors may get their wish after Valentine's Day. The trough that will help bring a shot of cold air in the wake of Thursday's system is forecast to shift west into the typical reverse Pacific North American pattern more typical of La Nina than the pattern we've had most of the winter. (Note the cold air coming in behind Thursday's system does not look as intense as a few days ago).

The CPC superensemble mean centered 11 days into the future (right) shows the strong ridging in the Pacific (red area) and downstream trough (blue area) over the West Coast and above normal heights indicative of ridging over the South (another red area) - which would favor a mild regime over the mid-Atlantic. The ensembles suggest that the pattern could persist for awhile. If so, our temperatures would probably run above normal and precipitation would probably be below normal. The good news for snow lovers is that I don't put much faith in long range forecasts.

By Wes Junker  | February 6, 2011; 2:15 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Brightening skies for the big game
Next: Forecast: Mild Monday, then trending colder

Comments

Booooooo!!!

Posted by: SnowHurricane | February 6, 2011 2:31 PM | Report abuse

Fantastic write-up as usual, Wes.

I love long term forecasts at this time of the winter, I am always looking ahead for the big warmup

Posted by: tengoalyrunr30 | February 6, 2011 2:33 PM | Report abuse

Sorry you are displeased, SnowHurricane. But at least Wes communicated inside of his in-depth analysis that confidence levels for medium and long-term forecasts are low. He tries to give you a glimmer of hope, as a snow lover...

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 6, 2011 2:35 PM | Report abuse

YAY!!!! Warm weather, PLEASE!!!

Posted by: fakedude2 | February 6, 2011 2:40 PM | Report abuse

THIS DEPRESSES ME.

I HATE DC

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 6, 2011 2:40 PM | Report abuse

tengoalyrunr30 - do you deem yourself a snow hater, as Wes refers? It sounds like you are pro-warmup at least. Glad to have both camps (pro and anti-snow) weigh in!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 6, 2011 2:41 PM | Report abuse

EFFFF THAT FORECAST!!!!


BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 6, 2011 2:42 PM | Report abuse

Snow haters unite! Yayyyyyyyyyyyyyy! C'mon Spring!

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 6, 2011 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Horrible headline, such a disappointment. Well atleast you guys don't have egg on your face like the 2 clowns over at accuweather. Can always tune into CWG to get the truth. Hope things turn around so we can get some snow.

Posted by: dannythe357 | February 6, 2011 2:49 PM | Report abuse

Another disappointment with the long range giving us the potential for a nice, winter snowfall and then it vanishing as the event date approaches. For once, I think it's fair that the long term potential for warm and snowless should also vanish as the date approaches, like Wes indicates is "possible" in his closing comment.

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 6, 2011 2:53 PM | Report abuse

dannythe357, I could be wrong and there are several 12Z ensemble members that give us snow accumulating snow thursday so a non-snow event is not a done deal. We still have potential for a glancing blow or if I'm wrong something more. Right now that would require a major change in the handling of two different streams of flow but still could happen. It's just not that likely.

Posted by: wjunker | February 6, 2011 2:57 PM | Report abuse

CWG, Not sure of the best way to communicate this (as it's not prime material for your blog) but I did want to let you know I sang your praises in a Minneapolis weather blog I operate. The specifics can be found within this post: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2011/02/from-tmf-soapbox-weather-watchers-bill.html

You guys are the best and your methods should be replicated everywhere!

Posted by: eddiedog2 | February 6, 2011 2:58 PM | Report abuse

First the Caps beat the Penguins, and now I read this. What a great day!!!

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | February 6, 2011 3:03 PM | Report abuse

CWG: I’m not sure of the appropriate place to do this … but I wanted to let you know that I sang your praises in a Minnesota weather blog I operate (details here: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2011/02/from-tmf-soapbox-weather-watchers-bill.html) . You continue to set the standards for what you do. Keep up the good work!

Posted by: eddiedog2 | February 6, 2011 3:04 PM | Report abuse

eddiedog2, thanks for the kind words and plug. Your comments about forecasting are right on. One thing I need to do is proofread my comments and article more. I often find typos in both but usually Jason will catch and correct any in the blog.

Posted by: wjunker | February 6, 2011 3:20 PM | Report abuse

Generally I don't give up on snow until after Presidents' Day weekend, Feb. 19-21 this year.

At about that time two things happen. First the solar angle gets more direct as the sun gets higher in the sky. Then, there's more sunlight at higher latitudes, so Arctic outbreaks tend to be shorter and less intense when they do happen.

I believe the sun rose at Barrow, AK for the first time since late November a couple of weeks ago.

You can still get accumulating snow as late as mid-March, but either or both of a couple things need to happen. It helps if the snow starts falling after dark and the ground is near freezing. As meteorological winter ends about Mar. 1 the average LOW temperature here rises to 32F so it's harder to get subfreezing nights.

The other, much-rarer option is to get a very intense storm system roughly like the 1993 Superstorm. This doesn't happen too often but north/south temperature contrasts during March do tend to intensify the storm systems which form next month--and which give rise to the "lion/lamb" analogy so descriptive of March weather. The pressure contrasts which are typical of March cyclones also cause the higher winds often prevalent next month.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 6, 2011 3:28 PM | Report abuse

Please do not worry my dear bloggers, shift happens.

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 3:29 PM | Report abuse

This has been the best post I've read on CWG in a long time! Excellent.

Posted by: rumbly45 | February 6, 2011 3:30 PM | Report abuse

I REALLY hate snow haters

Posted by: weatherfreak1994 | February 6, 2011 3:40 PM | Report abuse

Good analysis, but disappointing. The worst around here, in my opinion, is a glancing blow. Everybody is on the roads and that is what gives us the horrible commutes. Better to miss us entirely or dump on us so things other than schools are cancelled.

Today in Laurel / Fulton was beautiful. Sunny and 44 with no wind at my house. Was nice to get out for a walk.

Posted by: biketraveller22 | February 6, 2011 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Sorry about the double post. And Wes, not to worry. You still sound intelligent when you write and we all make occasional typos here and there. :-)

Posted by: eddiedog2 | February 6, 2011 3:42 PM | Report abuse

So this might be a dumb question but....


I have to travel via Megabus on friday, at 2:45PM, think any of you can give me an idea of "how bad" this 'glancing blow' or 'snow' is going to be? I noticed the trend seems to be snow on thursday morning-during the day and to be done by thursday evening/friday.

Thanks for any insight you can give :)

Posted by: HeMustBeMagic | February 6, 2011 3:45 PM | Report abuse

I can't here u snow haters *puts hands over his ears* LA LA LA

Posted by: weatherfreak1994 | February 6, 2011 3:46 PM | Report abuse

WOOOOO HOOOOO!!!!!!!!

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/45428/snow-map-for-the-snow-today-to-tuesday-winter-pattern-change.asp

When accuwx jumps off the big storm idea, you know the game is over!!!!!

Hope after this upcoming week, we get more days like today! ITS BEAUTIFUL OUTSIDE!!!!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Wes/CWG ...the 12z NAM was hinting the cold plunge Tues/Wed would not be as strong, thus the southern stream/low might not fall apart or get suppressed as much? What is the 18z NAM showing?

Also, the trend this winter has been storms tapping the Gulf to slow down. I have been watching the models the last few days and it seems they are slowing just a bit. First we had a Wed afternoon/night start of precip, now it looks like more Thurs morning. Will this help for snow lovers? We have seen this before where the cold high retreats allowing the southern stream to kick into high gear!

Posted by: dsnowman | February 6, 2011 3:55 PM | Report abuse

terrible forecast wes - just terrible. nice job and all... but terrible forecast. i hope you're wrong... ;-)

btw, you said,
"The problem for snow lovers is that the spaghetti diagram (above left) is suggesting..."

i believe that should say ...(above RIGHT)..."

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 6, 2011 4:04 PM | Report abuse

For me, I am glad that we have both snow lovers and snow haters that contribute to this blog. It is what makes it so much fun and interesting to read during the winter. I love to read the ups and downs of everyone's emotions and how the weather is such an integral part of affecting someone's demeanor and outlook. CWG's tries to lay out an accurate forecast and sometimes it pleases one faction and sometimes it pleases another faction but I am just glad that there is a forum for such discussion. In some places like Egypt, the Govt's forecast is the only one that is accepted )) How lucky we are !

Posted by: GtownG | February 6, 2011 4:11 PM | Report abuse

This forecast is depressing. Those snow phobes keep getting their way.

Winter is for SNOW. Spring is for warmth and rain. I don't understand why the snow phobes can't wait until Spring to have their beloved heat waves and humidity.

We mustn't look at snow as a problem, rather we must look at it as a gift from mother nature.

Besides, why in heaven's name would anyone want cold, chilly rain over snow? That just befuddles me.

So in conclusion, I say, let it SNOW, let it SNOW, let it SNOOOOW!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7CYd5LhWNQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhlSy95Bgvc&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 6, 2011 4:29 PM | Report abuse

Wow...

some of you guys get really serious about this. Cursing people out over snow? Honestly?

I dont care if it snows, as long as its not this weekend. Or actually, lemme change that, as long as it doesn't destroy travel this weekend. Besides that, everything is fine.

But calling people "M.F." over snow? Really?

Posted by: HeMustBeMagic | February 6, 2011 5:04 PM | Report abuse

The forecast really does suck. Totally agree with the comments above about Spring. How quickly everyone forgets about all the complaining that went on this summer with the record heat and humidity. Now even Joe Bastardi seems to be excited about potential 70 degree temps in DC...in February? What is going on? Then these same forecasters want to deny global climate change. Really? Oh well...still a chance of snow this week. After that, the rest of February looks warm. But who knows about March.

Posted by: DLO1975 | February 6, 2011 5:08 PM | Report abuse

I love snow, but I ain't crazy.
If nature deals the area a series of 60 degree days I won't complain.
But if the winter just keeps muddling along with cold temps & drizzly, dim weather I will be a bit cranky & glum.
Saw some snowdrops blooming in a Vienna yard today. Spring is coming.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 6, 2011 5:09 PM | Report abuse

Ditto, HeMustBeMagic!

SNOWLUVER, you were funny last night with your enthusiasm, but you’re not even close today. Too bad.

Posted by: ThinkWarm | February 6, 2011 5:12 PM | Report abuse

Wow snow lovers sure do get bitter when a forecast doesnt go their way :/ I can only imagine how they look when they have bitter beer faces!

If we indeed miss out on this storm thurs ill be glad. Snow haters hate snow because its a hassle. Its unsafe, its time consuming and prevents us from doing the things we love doing. Snow lovers may find it fun being cramped up in a house, sometimes with no power. Or even find it fun playing out in the snow well into their 30's, 40s, 50s and up LOL.

But some of us have lives and snow prevents us from living them to the max!!!!!

It BEFUDDLES me why anyone over the age of 16 likes snow. It is in no way good for any adults.period. If you really want to miss work or school for a couple days just call in sick or play sick to your parents.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 5:12 PM | Report abuse

The 18Z GFS continues the trend of keeping the storm suppressed and out to sea.

Posted by: wjunker | February 6, 2011 5:18 PM | Report abuse

Sweet "terrible towel" Sue Palka, barf!

Posted by: TheMot | February 6, 2011 5:19 PM | Report abuse

LOL, I love it when snow lovers get bitter, especially a week away from the possible event! Its just sad. I can see kids getting bitter over it, but adults getting bitter is really, truly just sad.

Anyways, if it doesnt snow, enjoy driving on streets safely, and be glad your not stuck in traffic with snow for 12 plus hours or sliding into oncoming traffic!

And for you adult snow lovers who love snow because it gives you a day off, JUST CALL IN SICK!

Same goes for you snow LUVER kiddies out there, just tell mommy you are sick and she'll write you a note to get you out of school. You can watch the cartoon network all day or play WoW!!!!!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 5:21 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ : If you like winter sports, you need some snow. If not in the city, at least at the resorts within a 2-4 hour drive. For many changing from bicycling and hiking to snow showeing, cross country skiing, and downhill skiing is part of the fun of having seasons. Lots of us are adults and still like snow.

I don't want another traffic nightmare, that's for sure. But I don't want 60 or 70 degree days either until we've used all our ski passes for the year.

Posted by: biketraveller22 | February 6, 2011 5:25 PM | Report abuse

I think we should all forget about snow for a little while and go watch the Super Bowl!

GO PACKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 6, 2011 5:25 PM | Report abuse

CWG --

Requesting that the post from SNOWLUVER @ 4:41 PM be deleted on the basis of the first sentence. Thanks!

Posted by: natsncats | February 6, 2011 5:32 PM | Report abuse

@biketravveler

If you like winter sports, go up north to the mountains, theres always snow there. The DC metro is not on a mountain and is not a ski resort. I like hunting deer, but i dont do it out in the city ;)

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 5:32 PM | Report abuse

Would a suppressed system bring more snow to the deep south? It seems like we may have a year when places like Atlanta and Raleigh end up with as much, or more, snow than we have in DC.

Norfolk having more is virtually a certainty in my book at this point. Back in the fall, if you had told me that Norfolk would double up DC in snowfall during a La Nina winter I would have said you were a fool - but that's looking like the reality!

Posted by: jahutch | February 6, 2011 5:34 PM | Report abuse

Biketraveller,

Im the same as you. I like snow for snowboarding. winter is for skiing and snowsports, not sun tanning.

Kruz,

we dont ski in the city. our ski resorts are all an hour away.

WINTER IS FOR SNOW!!!

SPRING IS FOR RAIN

SUMMER IS FOR SUN

FALL IS FOR LEAVES

LETS KEEP IT THAT WAY!!

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 6, 2011 5:36 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ -

For most of us who love snow, missing school or work has nothing to do with it. We love SNOW, period.

Plus, I don't miss work for it anyway. Last year I Worked from home one single day for all the blizzards. Otherwise I was at the office without issue.

This year I've left a bit early or gone in a bit late a few times but I've missed zero days.

I just love snow. I'd love to live somewhere with a decent climate like Boston, but that's not really an option job wise. You like warm sunny weather; I find it an insufferable bore. I like snow; you find it a pain. So what, we have a difference of opinion. It happens with humans. Snow haters need to get over the fact not everyone agrees with them and stop trying to tell people what they should and should not like.

Posted by: jahutch | February 6, 2011 5:40 PM | Report abuse

It's times like these that I wish mother nature would just make up her damned mind. Are we getting snow or is it warming up? WHICH IS IT, NATURE?? I JUST CAN'T TRUST YOU ANYMORE! STOP BREAKING MY HEART!!

/Snowlover

Posted by: SpeedLimit186000 | February 6, 2011 5:56 PM | Report abuse

A lot disappointed, but still hopeful...

Posted by: BG347 | February 6, 2011 6:22 PM | Report abuse

snowluver,
talk nice. inside voice.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 6, 2011 6:30 PM | Report abuse

@natsncats, did you cry yet? Acting like your a second grader. Take what he said, ignore it and keep on reading. Don't go up to the CWG like a 2 year old telling on him. No wonder the nats suck.

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 6:31 PM | Report abuse

@jahutch

Snow haters arent trying to tell people what they should and shouldnt like. Its actually the snow lovers who are cursing snow haters here. Its just being born and raised in the DC metro, I know snow isnt a huge part of our winter. I just think snow lovers are still frost burned from last years snow and are in a dream world thinking DC should get 60+ inches of snow every winter. Our average snow is under 20 inches.

ITS DC, NOT ALASKA!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 6:35 PM | Report abuse

I would be glad to see us done with snow for this winter. For those who like snow, move to Syracuse, Buffalo, or NE.

Posted by: DC_MAN88 | February 6, 2011 6:40 PM | Report abuse

Does anyone understand why the NWS still have snow predicted for Wed -Thursday when the new runs are leaning to the storm going South and out to sea?

As I write this, the NWS site shows the lates update at 6:02 and still a 40% chance of snow Wed into Thursday.

Posted by: cwspy | February 6, 2011 6:41 PM | Report abuse

cwspy: My opinion is this though I'm not a meteorologist.

The NWS gives an over arching view of the possible. It isn't focused on a specific location, but takes a lot into account, to the point where its sometimes good and sometimes bad. Its not meant for specific locations. about 2 and a half weeks ago they said 5-6 inches for Pittsburgh, yet the local weather and weatherbug said only around 1-3; because they are more specific. the NWS was taking into account all the surrounding areas, where more snow was accumulated, totalling around 5-6. So they were right, just not precise.

I like CWG, local news and weather bug more. Plus, also, there is still a small chance of snow, like everyone says we will know more tuesday.

Posted by: HeMustBeMagic | February 6, 2011 6:47 PM | Report abuse

Sometimes the snow love/snow hate banter is cute and amusing but this winter it strikes me mostly as annoying. I am beyond bored with it. So, I just skim the comments and if I see they're about that topic, I skip it. Same with certain posters. There is a teen on here that made an offensively homophobic comment awhile back. I doubt he/she even realized it. Hopefully, the adults on this board will lead by example the proper ways for discourse. Chastising teenagers on an anonymous board is not helpful. (Now, if their parents could speak to them, that would be great!)

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 6, 2011 7:03 PM | Report abuse

Excellent forecast Wes, very well written. Glad to hear winter will probably take a break. I still remember that January a few years ago with 70s. I went sailing on the Potomac, just south of DCA airport.

The chance for snow Thursday is still there, but there seems to be less and less chance everyday. If the trend continues, it might end up being partly sunny and in the 40s like someone else reported earlier....

I think some of you guys really are babies with the snow. I enjoy snow days, but there are many other ways to get days off. I enjoy sledding and skiing, but the DC climate isn't good for that, just go to the Appalachians.

Anyways, I like snow, but I also like 70s! I like the latter more than the former.

Posted by: bastings | February 6, 2011 7:17 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the update. Snowlovers, here's a Snowmageddon picture taken 365 days ago.

Rooting for snow and the Packers...

Posted by: spgass1 | February 6, 2011 7:42 PM | Report abuse

Like I said the other day, the fat lady is cuing it up for the end of winter...

Posted by: weatherdude | February 6, 2011 7:54 PM | Report abuse

"OPERATION SNOWHOPE" is in effect!!!

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 6, 2011 8:12 PM | Report abuse

I agree ..last year SPOILED US BAD!!!

Im about to throw in the towel myself as a snow lover..I heard soemthing about snow for tues last Friday and waited until tonight to check in and after reading wes.s headline i was dissapointed just like i thought i would be..oh well..bring on spring if all were gonna be is teased for the rest of the month.....

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | February 6, 2011 8:19 PM | Report abuse

FIRST of all,
Christina Aguilera SUCKED and doesn't know the words to the national anthem.

Second,
The black eyed peas were terrible at half time.

3rd,
OPERATION SNOWHOPE IS IN EFFECT!!!!

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 6, 2011 8:31 PM | Report abuse

First time posting here. Thanks, CWG, for all you do. The people in this area are lucky that our local paper provides a forum for experts to explain and discuss our climate and weather. I've learned a great deal from you during the past year.

Odd discussion here. The Romans used to say that "in matters of taste there are no disputes." I prefer it not to snow, but I won't argue with the snow lovers here. What's the point?

Posted by: terminator_x | February 6, 2011 8:53 PM | Report abuse

@snowluver

If you wish to continue posting here, please don't use profanity (or substitute letters to imply profanity - that post was deleted), or call people names (as you have done before). Please review the rules for commenting: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/liveonline/delphi/delphirules.htm

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 6, 2011 8:55 PM | Report abuse

OPERATION SNOWHOPE!!! Snow Loving Soldiers report for duty! *************************************************************
(those are snowflakes, BTW) ((pretend they have six points))

Posted by: casa_wasabi | February 6, 2011 9:04 PM | Report abuse

Driving back to Southern MD from North Carolina on Thursday. That storms looks to make trouble for that drive... South for DC but dead on for my drive. :(

Posted by: somdcommuter | February 6, 2011 9:05 PM | Report abuse

Ah, well when I typed them *** they showed up in the comment box as five-pointed asterisks. Glad that's all cleared up. Like it's important.

SNOWHOPE!!!

Posted by: casa_wasabi | February 6, 2011 9:08 PM | Report abuse

Jason..

This trend were seems to remind me alot of how it is back in Upstae SC when the snow chances are running low and are about to end...

Around the first of feb( back home) you start to see a trend of the snow..changeing to rain event s are becoming more common...the next thing you know were having more and more all RAIN events and the month drags on...next thing you know its FEB 20th and day time highs are remaining in the 40s and 50s...you may still have a chance for some overnight wintery mix but its gone by the daytime hours..

Long story short...I know theres still a CHANCE for the biggie..but common sense tells me were at least on the downslide for any missed work or school closings... IMHO...My gut tells the snow chances are heading out the door and were gonna see more all rain events...

HOWEVER!!! IM A HUGE THUNDERSTORM FAN!! That shuts down the flightline as well as snow so that gives me something to look forward to this spring..LOL!!!!

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | February 6, 2011 9:12 PM | Report abuse

CWG,
sorry about that

Snowlovers,

****************** that was 18 flakes. aka how many inches we are going to get thursday. 18 inches of powder!!!

OPERATION SNOWHOPE UNITE.

if you are a snowlover post a comment with flakes and say operation snowhope in ALL CAPS. the more members we have, the more snow.

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 6, 2011 9:47 PM | Report abuse

Aww, ya'll, it was so nice to feel that sweet fool-ya spring breeze today. We need it. In case we're stuck in snow next weekend.

Also, Packers win!

Posted by: weathergrrl | February 6, 2011 10:17 PM | Report abuse

The Steelers lost!!!!! Just like snow lovers this winter!!!!!

We'll do this again next year.

sNOw hope!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 10:20 PM | Report abuse

SNOWLUVER

Im right there with ya...*****************************************

However i still feel the end is in site for snow chances...and I agree..i hated the way Wes posted his headline..but..he is only telling the truth..i have seen it many times down south..when you start to see more and more rain..the end is near for us...

maby next year EL NINO will be back with a force!! and we will get the big one again.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | February 6, 2011 10:21 PM | Report abuse

The models are shifting just a bit!!! Snow may be back in the picture!

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 10:24 PM | Report abuse

**
Operation SnowHope is in effect in Arlington.
(Mine is smaller/quieter so as to not warm the air.)

Posted by: ArlTeacherSnowman | February 6, 2011 10:34 PM | Report abuse

latest models are showing a snowier outcome!!!

OPERATION SNOWHOPE is working!! keep on posting flakes

*****************************************************************************************************************************8888

Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 6, 2011 10:44 PM | Report abuse

Snow sucks.

I hate snow. I hate looking at the crumbs of snow in my yard from the last storm. I hate walking in the oodles of salt on the sidewalk and how it gets dragged onto my floormats. I have the fact I had NO rust on my car until last winter because people in this area thinks that chem salt solves the fact that people in this area can't drive in the snow.

Snow sucks. Haiku.

- Ray

Posted by: rmcazz | February 6, 2011 10:56 PM | Report abuse

Models trending snowier? Um, No. Latest GFS is as dry as a bone Thurs.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 6, 2011 11:05 PM | Report abuse

models shifting? LOL

00Z GFS is only at 54 hours :/

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 11:05 PM | Report abuse

***************************************
OPERATION SNOWHOPE

Posted by: BELLASNOWQUEEN | February 6, 2011 11:07 PM | Report abuse

some of you snow lovers are silly, you guys arent even wishcasting anymore. Now you guys are LIEcasting :/ Sad, just sad.

Heres what the models are really thinking.... WAAAAAY OTS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_tpp_078l.gif

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 11:12 PM | Report abuse

That is what it took for me to get someone to give me an update. It worked lol.

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 11:21 PM | Report abuse

The snow hopes this week seem slim to none. Unless there is a drastic change in the pattern, there is little likelihood of significant snow anytime soon.

I hope I'm wrong, but this pattern stinks!

Posted by: frontieradjust | February 6, 2011 11:22 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

lol @ "liecasting" ;-)

Posted by: natsncats | February 6, 2011 11:29 PM | Report abuse

for you snow lovers out there who are holding out hope, remember, nothing is over until you decide it is ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 11:29 PM | Report abuse

What is the NAM (200mb) showing at 72 hours?

If you have ab iPhone I just ought the coolest app with all the models and its updated the same as the website. It's awesome.

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 11:39 PM | Report abuse

What the app called I want it to

Posted by: weatherfreak1994 | February 6, 2011 11:41 PM | Report abuse

Weather Geek. It's awesome.

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 11:44 PM | Report abuse

Kruz, your earlier comment about "why anyone over the age of 16 likes snow" made me chuckle---my 18-year-old son used to be a real "snowluver," mainly because he loved getting out of school, but now that he actually has some adult-type responsibilities... well, not so much! Me, I don't mind a few 2-3 inchers, or even a "big one" once every few years for variety, but that's about it. But I do enjoy seeing both the snow lover and snow hater comments here---and I don't understand the point of any nastiness either way, since the weather will do what it will, no matter what any of us wants!

Posted by: skidge | February 6, 2011 11:45 PM | Report abuse

WOW, that is a nice app and it works on the iphone4 and ipad! Dling now!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 6, 2011 11:46 PM | Report abuse

What is the difference between 00z and 18z?????

Posted by: Weather_Fan_Damascus | February 6, 2011 11:50 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ -

I actually completely agree with you on that point :). I think a lot of people have an unrealistic idea of climatology. Last year was a rarity - in fact, I'd be surprised if any of us see it again in our lifetimes. Anyone involved in the winter weather hobby needs to realize that in this area, it's often a frustrating hobby, because snow events are the exception, not the norm.

That said - I just ask you to keep in mind 2 things:

1. This has been a particularly frustrating winter for snowlovers . There's been snow to the north of us - but it's all the snow to the south of us that drives you crazy. When places like Atlanta are having record winters while we are at 50% of average... it's pretty frustrating :).

2. For many snowlovers, places like CapitalWeather and Americanwx are our only outlet. Society as a whole hates snow. Our friends hate it, our coworkers hate it, and anytime there's any chance of it, the whole world turns into a giant negative whine & moan fest. There's times I've thought to myself "if they say the phrase "dodged a bullet" one more time on TV I'm going to drive my fist though the screen." Weather enthusiast boards on the internet are really the only place we have to congregate and discuss our mutual hobby.

So - if some snow lovers get a bit chippy in a winter like this - hopefully you can cut us some slack!!

Posted by: jahutch | February 7, 2011 12:06 AM | Report abuse

Since when did people start paying attention to storms that are so far out anyway? This thing has been talked about for over a week. It seems to me that it's a total waste of time to put so much effort in predicting what storms will do 4 and 5 days away. Forecasting storms a day away seems to be challenging enough around here.

Posted by: tjack55 | February 7, 2011 12:13 AM | Report abuse

jahutch --

Yes I cut you and most reasonable people on this board some slack during the winter, absolutely. It's just the snow flakes that tend to get on my last nerve, but I try to take the high road!

Posted by: natsncats | February 7, 2011 12:27 AM | Report abuse

@tjack55

Sometimes we can "sniff out" the potential for snow 4-7 days ahead of time (we did for Snowmageddon last year, and for the Commutageddon storm this year). But potential is just that as in a lot of instances it doesn't work out. Nonetheless- there are a lot, and I mean A LOT of people who enjoy the sport of watching the potential either blossom or fizzle out. Part of why people enjoy coming to CWG is that we have experts providing commentary on the different possible scenario, how things are trending and readers can choose to participate or not...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 12:31 AM | Report abuse

plus, its not only CWG that is saying the same thing, a lot of news sources are agreeing.

Posted by: HeMustBeMagic | February 7, 2011 12:40 AM | Report abuse

Wow today's discussion has gotten a bit zesty hasn't it? I think we as snow lovers can agree to disagree with the snow haters. We are eternal snow optimists - snoptimists if you will. They aren't and never will be. It's like telling someone who hates eating brussel sprouts that they should like them because you do. That doesn't mean we can't co-exist however. To borrow a famous phrase - can't we all just get along?

We are all here because we LOVE weather. I myself love the extremes - mega-snowstorms, supercells, cyclones - bring it on and keep it coming. It keeps things interesting. I do enjoy a sunny day as much as the next guy - but if it's going to snow - BRING IT! Don't tease us with the dreaded wintry mix. I can understand why the haters wouldn't share my viewpoint - from the outside looking in it does seem a bit odd - but our differences should be celebrated.

So, haters - I get you. I hope you get me.

Posted by: SnowHurricane | February 7, 2011 12:43 AM | Report abuse

Being a realistic snow crow I found Wes's blog sad but true. In the past long, persistently cold DC winters usually moderate right around Valentine's Day. Although I believe La Nina springs tend to be overall warm/dry (summers milder/wetter!) some recent La Ninas have produced significant early March snows, so there is still hope for us snow crows (caw! caw!)!

Posted by: buzzburek | February 7, 2011 12:56 AM | Report abuse

@Jason

With that said, I guess if one wants to watch each model run that's their business. I see CWG constantly warn against putting much faith in model outputs that are days in the future. For as much chatter that this Thursday "storm" has drawn, you would think it was a day away. So maybe we shouldn't give BobMiller such a hard time about his 10 day away storm fantasies...lol.

Posted by: tjack55 | February 7, 2011 1:17 AM | Report abuse

natsncats,
yeah... they're getting on my nerves too... and i want snow. sadly, i think the average age of the posters here has dropped... maybe it was twitter or something.

fake model reports, which when corrected elicit a "gotcha - that's what i have to do to get an model update."

operation all caps... sigh... it's embarrassing...

spgass1,
nice pic!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 7, 2011 7:47 AM | Report abuse

I'm with the snowlovers on here. I moved from DC to San Diego, where I lived for 12 years... and where it averages *six thunderstorms* per year. Sure, you get the occasional torrential winter rains, and the mountains in eastern San Diego County get a couple decent snows per year, but man oh man is that some boring weather after a while. I never thought I'd get tired of a nice day.

Posted by: Andrew53 | February 7, 2011 7:56 AM | Report abuse

Last night's euro and GFS kept the Thursday storm suppressed and the models are still suggesting a moderating pattern starting around Valentines day. If so, I may not have much to write about for awhile.

Posted by: wjunker | February 7, 2011 8:41 AM | Report abuse

Operation Snow Hope!
******************

This is hopeless :(

Posted by: Hosj | February 7, 2011 3:26 PM | Report abuse

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