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Posted at 10:00 PM ET, 02/ 7/2011

PM Update: Late night shower or flake

By Ian Livingston

(originally posted at 3:40 p.m., updated at 10 p.m.)

10:00 p.m. update: Best chances for seeing precipitation tonight and early tomorrow should be between 3 and 6 a.m. With Dulles Airport already down to 35 degrees and temperatures cooling aloft, any precipitation that falls out that way should be in the form of snow. As we said earlier, these normally colder locations could see a quick coating, so use caution if you're headed out very early. Reagan National, on the other hand, is 41. It may fall back into the upper 30s by the time any precipitation arrives, which would favor mixed rain and snow with no accumulation.

From 3:40 p.m.: Some morning sunshine became more and more obscured by clouds during the day as highs reached the mid-40s to around 50 -- pretty close to average. We'll stay locked in with gray skies headed through the night, and they could spit out a bit of precipitation prior to sunrise tomorrow. A cold front passing through promises to bring much colder air in for tomorrow as well as much of the rest of the work week.


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: Most of the night is just looking cloudy and moderately cool. We'll mostly be in between areas of precipitation to the west and east, so it should end up rather dry even with the risk of a shower or two throughout. A cold front arriving late night may change any showers that pop up to snow showers headed into early morning, though everything should be pulling off to the northeast prior to the commute and accumulation risks greater than a light coating (mainly north and west of town) are minimal. Lows make it to near 30 in the suburbs to the mid-30s downtown.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): After this brief hint of milder air, tomorrow we head back into winter's grip. And in this winter, that means wind comes along as well. Despite a fair amount of sunshine during the day, temperatures barely budge upward off morning lows. Highs should struggle for the mid-30s most spots. Winds are rather fierce, especially during the afternoon. They'll be sustained as high as 25 mph or so from the north and northwest with gusts near or past 40 mph pretty likely.

See Jason Samenow's forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

TV weather: While The Weather Channel (TWC) has been reducing live weather coverage for some time in favor of pre-recorded 'weathertainment,' big weather stories sometimes get in the way. Last week, during the major Midwest storm, TWC was forced to postpone its "new prime-time original programming schedule" that was slated to start January 31. Still, TWC averaged nearly 1 million viewers during prime-time storm coverage last week compared to just past 300,000 in the four weeks prior. The new prime-time lineup is now scheduled to start tonight, and the weather looks to cooperate.

By Ian Livingston  | February 7, 2011; 10:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Cold and very windy again

Comments

Everyone ready for our mild air to end? Prepared to bundle up more tomorrow?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 3:58 PM | Report abuse

CWG: Your forecast is the most thorough around for DC proper. Just a suggestion: The headline of the weather section is rarely your most recent forecast and often leads you to an outdated post. I can eventually get to the most recent one, but it seems that your most up-do-the-minute forecast should be the easiest one to access. Just a suggestion. Otherwise, keep up the good work.

Posted by: jackstrawdc1 | February 7, 2011 4:06 PM | Report abuse

It still "felt" cold to me this afternoon, even at 46 out here!

Sunshine goes a long way, I guess. I think I felt warmer on a recent past day when the sun was bright, but there was a solid blanket of snow on the ground. What's with that!?

Maybe I am just ready for the sun?

If there can't be snow, let's just get on with the sunshine! (And "boo" to the wind too!)

Posted by: holly6 | February 7, 2011 4:10 PM | Report abuse

@jackstrawdc1

You're right. I's due to a technology glitch that causes a delay between the time our latest update is posted and it appears on the new weather page. That issue should be addressed in the coming months.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 4:11 PM | Report abuse

re: weather channel new lineup

I'm getting so sick of the "new" TWC. Before they were bought by NBC, they had practically 24/7 live weather coverage. Now, all they have is this Storm Stories and reality show crap. And in the mornings, half the time I flip over there, they're reading news headlines or something. Um, excuse me, but if I want news headlines at 7 am I'll watch the Today Show. It seems like less than half of their programming is actually weather related.

I don't watch the weather channel to get news, or to watch sports or to watch the president's speeches. I watch it for WEATHER. NBC already runs a cable news network; MSNBC.

Long story short: TWC has really gone downhill. I'm sure they're losing a lot of viewers because of this.

But hey, we don't need TWC! We've got all the best meteorologists right here on CWG!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 7, 2011 4:50 PM | Report abuse

Over the weekend, the Weather Channel was forecasting a significant low pressure system moving through the gulf and then heading up the east coast, with the suggestion of accumulating snow on Thursday. Based on your current forecast (a 20% chance of snow), it appears that this prediction has fizzled out.

Posted by: MillPond2 | February 7, 2011 4:51 PM | Report abuse

In other weather TV news, NBC 4.2 (over-the-air) has gone from 24 hr weather to non-weather programming with shows on DC Food, rebroadcasts of syndicated programming, etc. ABC 7.2 carries ABC local forecasts and accuweather programming and CBS 9.2 shows their Doppler 9000.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 7, 2011 5:03 PM | Report abuse

This "operation snow hope" thing is REALLY getting on my nerves.

These boards are clearly being overrun by a bunch of kids posting downright annoying and senseless comments.

It seems as though this has happened just recently. I know I haven't been posting here very long, but I have been reading CWG for several years and I must say this is the first year I have seen all this.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 7, 2011 5:13 PM | Report abuse

YEAH BobMiller2 -- Totally agree.

I love(d) the Weather Channel because I knew it was where I could fine... wait for it -- WEATHER! I don't want a reality TV show about weather.

Unfortunately the other all-weather TV channels are even worse.

It is why people are turning to the Internet -- they can find what they want. (@CapitalWeather -- keep up the great weather coverage.)

Posted by: cdorobek | February 7, 2011 5:14 PM | Report abuse

holly6, you said,
"Sunshine goes a long way, I guess. I think I felt warmer on a recent past day when the sun was bright, but there was a solid blanket of snow on the ground. What's with that!?"

well, the sun makes a HUGE difference. just take a look at where the snow has melted and where it's stayed. you can easily tell where the sun has been shining and where it's been shaded.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 7, 2011 5:23 PM | Report abuse

Cold winter winds tomorrow. But no snow.
Hate it.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 7, 2011 6:27 PM | Report abuse

I know, Firedragon! It's a shame to waste all that cold air.

Posted by: SubRosa2 | February 7, 2011 7:13 PM | Report abuse

Back from central Pa. they had about 4-5" on the ground, but had very little snow until last week.
Looking bleak for any decent snow over the next 2 weeks, temps r also going 2 warm up considerable beginning this weekend. Getting close to throwing in the towel time. If it isn't going 2 snow, then bring on the milder temps.
Going to Martinsville on Fri. 2 trade in my bass boat & order a new one, don't need any snow on Fri.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 7, 2011 7:27 PM | Report abuse

Wow - we have a celebrity (cdorobek) in our midst! If you get bored waiting for that next snow storm that's always just out of reach over the horizon, you might want to check out the always-excellent coverage of gov't policy, management & tech over on Federal News Radio's DorobekInsider.com. Almost always my first news stop of the day at work and highly recommended - good to see you checking in here at CWG, cdorobek...

Posted by: ToBeBlunt | February 7, 2011 7:35 PM | Report abuse

Has anyone yet seen a sprinkle yet tonight? Temperatures are still too mild to see a flake or two, but very late tonight it should become possible.

VaTechBob, Firedragon, Subrosa2... are all in agreement about disliking lack of snow (and cold, dry conditions that seem to align) - anyone out there okay with cold air without precipitation? I know the pattern is frustrating for some snow lovers, but perhaps others are not unhappy?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 7:43 PM | Report abuse

Camden

I'll take the cold but DRY air anytime of the winter!!!!!

I'll even take cold temps with cold rain too, like tonight! As long as it doesnt involve snow, sleet or ice accumulating on roads, I will gladly accept it!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 7, 2011 7:47 PM | Report abuse

I agree with jackstrawdc1. I find your information the clearest, least hyped-up weather in our area, and I really enjoy the technical explanations. But sometimes it takes me a few tries to find the latest update. If you could find a way to make the latest version the first one that appears when you click on the forecast, that would be very helpful. Keep up the good work!

Posted by: krrolney | February 7, 2011 8:02 PM | Report abuse

Little drizzle on the windshield driving around Monrovia about 7:30. Just put on the outside light and no flakes, just drizzle - almost 8pm. We still have quite a bit of snow around our house, and piled around the car with a flat tire. Needing the snow to melt so I can get AAA out! The car with the flat is the AWD I could have used for the last 10 days. Instead I avoided driving early / late / rain / snow / ice in my tiny commuter car.

I am happy with whatever Mother Nature brings our way. And am glad that I have the most notice that it possible from the CWG pros! Thanks and good work...

Posted by: monroviawthr | February 7, 2011 8:03 PM | Report abuse

I'll take cold and dry. At least when it's cold, I sleep well. I like a cold bedroom and a warm blanket...mm, sounds good, think I'll head off for the night, and maybe dream of snow.

Posted by: --sg | February 7, 2011 8:32 PM | Report abuse

Camden,

I only want it to be cold if and only if there is precipitation to accompany it. Cold, dry, windy weather really bothers me. Although, I guess it's good for some things like skiing or ice skating.

If it's not going to snow, then let Spring begin! There's just something about that first 70° day that just seems...oh how could I put it...magical. Being able to have a BBQ in the backyard, being able to go fishing, bike riding, you name it. Even for a snow lover like me, there's just something about Spring that I love.

But, then again, I enjoy each and every season for what it has to offer. Summer, there's the 4th of July, going to the beach, going on vacation, spending time outdoors, camping.

And then there's Autumn. Nothing beats that cool, crisp, fresh Autumn air. Leaf raking, Thanksgiving, I just love everything about it.

I still would like to see a few more good snowfalls (6"+) before the winter is over, but that isn't looking too likely, and furthermore, I already got my 6"+ storm for the winter during Commutageddon, so I'll try not to complain.

---

Oh, and KRUZ: I know we disagree on a lot of things, but I know you work hard being a plow driver, and I would like to thank you for devoting your time to keeping our roads safe. It's people like you who keep a community going. So in your honor, I would like to request that all further snow storms magically miss KRUZ's neighborhood. Or maybe it would be more realistic to just ask that the "bulls eye" stays far away from you ;-)

- - Bob

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 7, 2011 8:33 PM | Report abuse

BobMiller2

I can accept that bullseye being away from me! Thx for the less snow request for my community! :)

This reminds me, one word i wont miss in the coming spring and summer months is SWATH. I am so sick of hearing that word now, from TWC to AccuWx. If i hear "A swath of snow maybe heading for the DC metro" again this year, i may have to rip my ears off.

May the word SWATH R.I.P. along with any other possible snow threats this winter!

Posted by: KRUZ | February 7, 2011 8:42 PM | Report abuse

I read this blog often and I think you guys have an honest and scientifically impressive approach to predicting what you can and admitting what you cannot. Thanks for the diligence.

I can't recall when it was (and I'm too lazy to look it up), but around 5ish days ago this blog was predicting/relaying the idea that this Thursday was going to be the beginning of a strong cold snap, with lows in the single digits and highs in the 20's (forgive me if I'm misremembering the posts). Suddenly, you're predicting that this weekend will be quite the opposite and usher in a week-plus period of above average temperatures. What happened to cause such a drastic swing in predictions?

Posted by: PowerhouseRowe | Fe

Posted by: PowerhouseRowe | February 7, 2011 8:46 PM | Report abuse

After mid Feb. if it isn't goig to snow then bring on the milder weather. I love the cold, but by mid Feb. it's time 4 warmer weather if it isn't going to snow.
Still hoping 4 one decent snow over the next 3 weeks, but it's looking doubtful.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 7, 2011 9:10 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ,
you may have heard the word "swath" a lot, but we were never involved in any swaths of snow this year.

camden,
count me among those who consider cold w/o snow a waste of cold, and rain in the winter a waste of precipitation. this winter has been horrible in that we've suffered all kinds of cold, but not nearly the commensurate amount of snow.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 7, 2011 9:17 PM | Report abuse

whats CWG's thought on latest NAM http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_060m.gif

Still looks like maybe some flurries

Posted by: KRUZ | February 7, 2011 9:39 PM | Report abuse

There's "snow hope."

Oh well.

Time for the 70s!

Posted by: bastings | February 7, 2011 9:44 PM | Report abuse

As some of you may remember. Back in Jan when SC/NC and Upstate GA got that big snow down there ( around 9-10 ) at my dads in Spartanburg. I drove my family down to play. Well from what hes saying they could get another wallop this thursday( maby 6-8) . I was actuall driving down this weekend for my sisters Bday. I may have to bump it up and day and head down Thursday..lol.

Seriously though, its a differet world down there when it snows. they just have the equipment. When we got that 8-10 inches here a couple of weeks ago, it was plowed by that morning and i went to work. down there, 8 inches shuts it down for a week!!!

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | February 7, 2011 9:55 PM | Report abuse

PowerhouseRowe, I don't believe CWG was advertising that type of scenario with the cold as a forecast. When the bigger snow idea for this week first popped up it was accompanied by a major/historic Arctic outbreak to follow on the models. Some folks did jump on that idea on national sites but it was always a bit far fetched as initially shown. If nothing else guidance has advertised very strong pushes of cold air (near or below 0 lows from like 8-10 days out) much of the winter and it's never ended up that bad here.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 10:02 PM | Report abuse

@PowerhouseRowe

I did cite a discussion from the National Weather Service (I think it was Friday) which indicated in a worst case scenario it could be that cold. And we did talk up the potential for cold a bit in that particular update. However, we started backing off that Saturday and Sunday.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 10:11 PM | Report abuse

I'm quite intrigued that predictions a handful of days apart can be so drastically (in my eyes) different. I absolutely understand that change is the name of the game here, but am I seeing Chaos Theory at work and we have a butterfly in Mozambique to blame? Or is this not an especially unique about-face in predictions?

I hope this isn't taken as an indictment against you guys as I understand that you didn't really push that idea too hard in the first place. I love your work and I guess I'm just curious as to how a forecast evolves.

Posted by: PowerhouseRowe | February 7, 2011 10:45 PM | Report abuse

Just like to say, I appreciate CWG's responsible reporting back and responding to questions and comments. Since your move to TWP, I have seen no change in this, in fact, I've seen a more devoted response. You guys have always been great. Thank you.

Posted by: weathergrrl | February 7, 2011 10:50 PM | Report abuse

Reacting to what Camden said earlier, I don't much mind cold without lack of precipitation; I like having four distinct seasons and winter should be naturally cold (within reason.) But when it's below average for weeks on end it's natural to want some snow. I find it annoying to have weeks of very cold weather without much precipitation, or when precip does arrive it's only with warmer air that only produces rain or, worse, sleet or a "wintry mix."

That said, periodic spells of relatively warm air are normal for winters, so it shouldn't be below freezing every day. But long blocs of temps in the 60s or 70s in winter really aren't natural around here, and I get annoyed at those (especially weather reporters on radio or TV who should know better) who act all disappointed when warm spells end and it's back to winter. If you want it to be 70 degrees all winter, then move.

Posted by: mkarns | February 7, 2011 10:58 PM | Report abuse

**cold with lack of precipitation. I wish these comments could be proofread and edited after posting!

Posted by: mkarns | February 7, 2011 11:04 PM | Report abuse

a couple things about thursdays storm. tonights 00z gfs is more south and ots and a total miss. also Bob Ryan tweeted thursday snow is down to a 10% chance.

funny thing abiut that is Sue Palka actually said the chances are still there as the storm is closer now than it was 24 hours ago.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 7, 2011 11:13 PM | Report abuse

mkarns

I agree..move to Florida or south georgia if you want 60 degree plus temps all winter long. I have lived there..even that gets old after a while..you start to beg for a day you have to wear a jacket.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | February 7, 2011 11:15 PM | Report abuse

@PowerhouseRowe

It is still going to be quite cold Thursday into Friday--just not nearly as extreme as it looked at one point. The models aren't as far off as it may appear. Late last week, they were winding up a big East Coast storm which was going to drag even more extreme cold southward for the late Thursday through Saturday period. Now they're developing a much weaker storm and farther offshore - so the cold air behind it will not be as intense and long lasting as once feared.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 11:17 PM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

While we could see some flurries, I agree with Bob. 10% chance seems about right for anything shovelable.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2011 11:22 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: KRUZ | February 7, 2011 11:24 PM | Report abuse

jason

I farm on the side as a hobby. do you guys keep us up to date on warming trends and possible ground temps..etc..i only started looking here during the winter so i will rely on you( CWG) when it come to spring planting.

Last year i got the green tumb too early. I planted spring onions during the warm spell inmarch and they got beat down by the late frost we had in april.

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | February 7, 2011 11:27 PM | Report abuse

CWG - thanks for always providing an accurate and realistic forecast. I have stopped watching the news on ANY channel, since they are always scaring people with weather predictions that are far north, west and south of our area.

Posted by: TVDIVA | February 7, 2011 11:48 PM | Report abuse

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