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Posted at 4:00 PM ET, 02/ 1/2011

PM Update: Rain and freezing rain tonight

By Jason Samenow

Freezing rain advisory; wet a.m. commute

(updated at 5:45 p.m.)

After this morning's freezing drizzle induced glaze, the mercury has rebounded just above 32 across much of the metro region. To the west, a "beast" of a storm is winding up in the Midwest. As it advances east and northeast, freezing rain and rain breakout across the area tonight. The precipitation ends tomorrow morning as rain before a brief push of mild air for the afternoon.

Through Tonight: Watch temperatures closely where you live this evening. Freezing rain or rain moves in between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. from west to east, with freezing rain favored north and west of the District and rain most other places. Temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s (except near 30 toward Frederick county) should remain steady through 1 to 3 a.m. before slowly rising in the pre-dawn hours. By sunrise, most places should be at or above freezing, with the possible exception of northwest Loudoun county, northwest Montgomery county and Frederick county (and locations north and west of there). Rainfall toward morning may be heavy with isolated thunder possible. See my earlier post for additional details.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Rain is likely for rush hour and may be heavy early. Icy roads are unlikely except for a slight risk in the far northwest suburbs as temperatures climb through the 30s. By late morning the rain ends and the sun should emerge by afternoon. A brief push of warm air may allow temperatures south of town near 50 or even a little higher. In the immediate metro region, 45-50 is possible. North and west of town, the cold wedge may hold more tenaciously, capping temps from 40-45. During the afternoon, winds increase from the west at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible.

See Matt Rogers' forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Friday night & Saturday storm? Computer models continue to suggest a southern storm will impact the region early this weekend and precipitation type is once again a challenge. We're favoring a warmer solution with rain most likely, although some snow or mixed rain and snow cannot be ruled out. Wes will analyze the situation tomorrow.

By Jason Samenow  | February 1, 2011; 4:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Still hoping for snow this weekend...

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 1, 2011 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Will there be a school cast for tomorrow? Thanks for the updates! I love CWG.

Posted by: LGB31 | February 1, 2011 4:09 PM | Report abuse

If you asked me for the perfect graphic description of February - this is it: Cloudy, cold, damp and miserable.
At least a good rain will wash some of the road salt away.

Posted by: grobinette | February 1, 2011 4:22 PM | Report abuse


Thanks for the nice note. Yes. Before 10 p.m. this evening.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 4:22 PM | Report abuse

is snow for this weekend to iffy to call right now?

Posted by: BradFinWoodbridgeVA | February 1, 2011 4:28 PM | Report abuse

I hate to be "that guy" but there are a great many DCers treking out to Baltimore this evening for a concert. Should we be concerned about traffic on 95 south from Baltimore to DC in the 11pm-1am window?

Posted by: Thunder82 | February 1, 2011 4:37 PM | Report abuse


Latest model guidance suggests 3 - 5 inches if it were to be all snow, but it looks like the rain/snow line may be right around DC.

Posted by: BobMiller2 | February 1, 2011 4:40 PM | Report abuse


Posted by: SNOWLUVER | February 1, 2011 5:03 PM | Report abuse

From Accuweather:

Joe Bastardi does feel that storms hitting the eastern half of the nation will trend warmer in the period beyond mid-February into part of March.

"That would mean more rain events over snow events," Bastardi said.

"Before the end of February, Washington, D.C., will hit 70 and Dallas will hit 80 degrees," Bastardi added Tuesday afternoon.

Joe is calling for a "big flip" in the weather pattern across the U.S. in a couple of weeks.

Posted by: weatherdude | February 1, 2011 5:07 PM | Report abuse

Should we be concerned about flooding since it looks like this will be an all rain event and combination of the rain and higher temperatures will help melt the snow? Thanks for the great work!

Posted by: JLF03 | February 1, 2011 5:07 PM | Report abuse

A half inch of ice?! Good heavens no!

Posted by: angelicat | February 1, 2011 5:11 PM | Report abuse

I still dont understand why with 4.5 hours until the projected start of this storm or whatever this is, we still can not determine if we'll get freezing rain or just rain... I know it has to do with the temperatures, but will temperatures change out of nowhere back and forth that we cant say freezing or rain?

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 5:24 PM | Report abuse

Definitely not going to be a fun commute tomorrow am...

Posted by: eabgarnet | February 1, 2011 5:28 PM | Report abuse

@RJ16 Duh

Posted by: mgeisenb | February 1, 2011 5:32 PM | Report abuse

No Duh! DO you think if I open my fridge and leave my deck door open, it'll help us achieve lower temperatures tonigh? I want iceeeeeee.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 5:51 PM | Report abuse

Since I found this blog about a month ago I have been totally obsessed with it. You guys are awesome!!! Thanks for all your hard work and informative posts.

Posted by: mdith4him1 | February 1, 2011 5:59 PM | Report abuse

Penguins an ice!!!

Posted by: weatherfreak1994 | February 1, 2011 6:00 PM | Report abuse

mdith4him1 - really appreciate you following us!

RJ16 - wow you really want ice, eh? No where to go in the morning, I assume?

weatherfreak1994 - tell RJ16 how to do the penguin walk!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 6:04 PM | Report abuse

Daag ... it looks like us snow lovers might as well pack it up and go back inside! It seems like we're about to start that WONDERFUL pattern of above-average, but still cold temps with bone-chilling, cold rain, followed by 3 TO 5 inches of pollen, dragging out the lawn mowers, and stink bugs! G-R-E-A-T!

Well, ThinkSpring and Kruz, I hope you enjoy it! I'll be back out to play when it's time for some F-O-O-T-B-A-L-L ...oh wait, we might not have that either!

Posted by: luvhh1 | February 1, 2011 6:09 PM | Report abuse

RJ16-walk very stifly and sable your arms towards the side of ur body:)

Posted by: weatherfreak1994 | February 1, 2011 6:11 PM | Report abuse

haha. I do, I have work but it's 10 minutes away. I'll be watching the schoolcast for mcps...3 apples.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 6:12 PM | Report abuse

RJ16, the temperatures can't change out of nowhere. Either it has to clear a bit and allow them to drop, or cold or dry air has to blow in. The former is not going to happen, nor is the latter with winds mostly out of the S or SW. The exception is only east of DC where a little cooler air may sneak down the coast So maybe NE MD might get close to freezing the next few hours But as soon as the rain starts it will bring warm air down from aloft. My hint there is Hot Springs is 39/39 with a S wind (they are at 3k feet) Bottom line is above freezing.

Posted by: eric654 | February 1, 2011 6:15 PM | Report abuse

*sigh* Seems like it's not looking very promising for any more big snow this winter....I hate cold rain. Rain now, rain on the weekend, warmer in February... PLEASE tell me there's still realistic hope of some more snow this season. CWG? Is the trend not my friend? *more sighing*

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 1, 2011 6:24 PM | Report abuse

winter isn't over yet, promise

no good skiing happening at the Homestead if, wow, Hot Springs is 39!

small favor to ask, I see mention of pollen & I reallllly don't want to think about that just yet. Thanks :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2011 6:40 PM | Report abuse

makes sense that 2nd half of feb warms, something has to give, its been above average cold since beginning of december.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 1, 2011 6:41 PM | Report abuse

CWG nailed this forecast Sunday night/Monday morning. You guys rock! Looking forward to Wes's analysis on the weekend storm.

My hope is for FULL days of school for the rest of the week AND snow this weekend. Maybe one last big snow before the end of winter will happen? Go Houston Snow-Lovers Club! Then, bring on the beautiful spring NoVA offers.

Posted by: holly6 | February 1, 2011 6:42 PM | Report abuse

The cold weather that was supposed to blast in here after the storm has gone more straight south into Texas, most of which will be much colder than Virginia tomorrow. By Thursday night Brownsville might maybe get their third snow on record (1899, 2004). That means less cold air for the weekend storm, however a strong enough storm will cause dynamic cooling.

Posted by: eric654 | February 1, 2011 6:42 PM | Report abuse

My brother lives in SW VA. It's currently 51 degrees there. My mother lives in Harrisonburg, VA. It's currently 44 degrees there. The warm air is coming!

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 1, 2011 6:42 PM | Report abuse

I was wondering if
1) could you provide info on which day averages the most snow in feb
2)which day has had the most storms

and I like to point out that this sat-sunday is anniversery of Snowmaggedon, maybe this weekend storm has something up its sleeve

Also wondering why it's predicted to warm up so much mid feb

Posted by: redskins-95 | February 1, 2011 6:48 PM | Report abuse

The thunder part is kinda interesting though.

To the devil with this mess. Push that ice & heavy rain on out & get us an afternoon with lots of sun & 50 degrees. Do that and I won't complain about the wind.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 1, 2011 6:55 PM | Report abuse

the storm maybe might have something up it's sleeve.

Posted by: weatherfreak1994 | February 1, 2011 7:01 PM | Report abuse

this weekend which is our blizzard annivarsary.

Posted by: weatherfreak1994 | February 1, 2011 7:03 PM | Report abuse

It's already raining in College Park, well in advance of the predicted 10 PM start time of the storm. What's happening??

Posted by: stuckman | February 1, 2011 7:41 PM | Report abuse

Yowza - at the wall of water that's now just showing on the edge of our radar - coming in from the west!

Posted by: MKoehl | February 1, 2011 8:19 PM | Report abuse

light rain falling right near IAD

thanks for the North & West clarification, usually unclear from local forecasts if N&W means Reston or Harper's Ferry

Posted by: tgt111 | February 1, 2011 8:36 PM | Report abuse

Radar looks like an inland sea developed and the tide is coming our way fast. I'm finding it hard to believe we'll only get about half an inch out of it.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 1, 2011 8:51 PM | Report abuse

Is there an update coming?

Posted by: formerwxman1 | February 1, 2011 9:47 PM | Report abuse

Yeah. Never.

Posted by: RJ16 | February 1, 2011 10:02 PM | Report abuse

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