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Posted at 1:40 PM ET, 02/ 9/2011

Snowstorm burying eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas

By Jason Samenow

Same storm may dust D.C. tonight

arkansas-snow.jpg
Predicted six hour snowfall amounts through 2 p.m. by the National Weather Service

The winter of 2010-2011 is turning into a historic one in parts of eastern Oklahoma, Kansas, and northwest Arkansas. Heavy snow from a storm in the region coupled with snow from the Groundhog's Day blizzard is bringing monthly and seasonal totals to record levels. Totals from today's storm alone have exceeded 20" in some locations in all three states.

Through noon, Tulsa has received about six inches of snow bringing its seasonal total to 26", its snowiest winter on record. Oklahoma City (OKC) has also received about six inches. Weather.com reports February 2011 is now the 2nd snowiest month on record in OKC (with 18") behind March of 1911 (20.7")

Farther east, radar shows snow over the entire state of Arkansas. The northwest part of the state is in the snow bulls-eye, with reports of totals exceeding two feet. Weather.com's Twitter feed reports "the Walmart Home office in Bentonville has been closed for the first time ever." And it reports the 25" in Gentry may be a new state record for snow.

As the storm heads east, it will be suppressed southward by cold air to the north and weaken. Nonetheless, winter storm warnings extend through central and northern Mississippi and Alabama, where generally 2-4" are anticipated. Those are significant amounts for locations not used to getting much snow. Farther north and east into northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and the western Carolinas, winter weather advisories are in effect for around 1-2" of snow.

The storm will track far south of the central and northern mid-Atlantic. Nonetheless, a ribbon of light snow and flurries may develop south of the Mason Dixon line associated with the storm system's upper level energy. Precipitation may look impressive for a time on radar, but due to dry air, a substantial amount of the precipitation is likely to evaporate before reaching the ground.

For the D.C. area specifically, there's a 60% chance of a dusting or more mainly tonight, and 40% chance of no snow. As for the "or more" possibility, the upper limit for snow would be around 1" (just a 10% chance). Generally speaking, the best chance of any light accumulation of snow will be south of Washington.

Capital Weather Gang's (CWG) winter weather expert, Wes Junker says:

This morning's NAM run continued the trend that raises the probability of a dusting making it now as likely or may be slightly more likely than a a total miss out to sea. That's a change from last night. The winds at 5000 feet are westerly so there is no way to tap much moisture which is a limiting factor whihc should keep so any snowfall that falls light. However, the temperatures when the snow falls should be below freezing. There is an outside chance that someone might see snowfall amounts that approach an inch (around 10% chance). Snowfall is more likely to be in the flurries to a half inch range.

The GFS and European models also support some very light snow tonight. Stay tuned to CWG's PM Update for additional details...

By Jason Samenow  | February 9, 2011; 1:40 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, U.S. Weather, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Remembering 2010's Snoverkill
Next: Light snow dusting region, slick roads in spots

Comments

When's the next foreseeable chance for some real wintry weather?

Posted by: dmackerman6226 | February 9, 2011 1:57 PM | Report abuse

@dmackerman6226

There isn't ...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2011 2:03 PM | Report abuse

Bummer. :(

Posted by: dmackerman6226 | February 9, 2011 2:05 PM | Report abuse

Jason-
You make me so sad.

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 9, 2011 2:14 PM | Report abuse

for the Kruz and other warm lovers. The 12Z Euro is a dream come true. It shows lots of 50 degree plus days next week and suggests that late in the week temps could get well into the 60s. Of course, that far out models are far from perfect but the pattern does look to be a warmer than normal one.

Posted by: wjunker | February 9, 2011 2:25 PM | Report abuse

I agree with the SAD FACE.

Posted by: MadRabbitScientist | February 9, 2011 2:26 PM | Report abuse

LOVE the 12z Euro then.

Thanks, Wes!

Saw a post on another site stating that the chances of a long-lasting cold spell are slim for the rest of the winter. Implying our cold weather from here on out will come in short bursts?

Is the worst (or best depending on your perspective) behind us?

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 9, 2011 2:30 PM | Report abuse

Congratulations, CWG! This article was just featured in the google U.S. news feed.

More on topic, still kinda upset that this storm didn't come party in D.C. :(

Posted by: PlatinumFedora | February 9, 2011 2:38 PM | Report abuse

I love winter and snow quite a bit.. but after this winter's lackluster performance here in DC, I'm pretty excited for some warm weather! If I can't have snow, an early spring sounds good.

Posted by: CuseFan07 | February 9, 2011 2:38 PM | Report abuse

i love all this good news today! its been soo cold the last couple momths something had to give. so ready for the warm weather and no snow. just gotta get through tonight.

Posted by: KRUZ | February 9, 2011 2:46 PM | Report abuse

When's the next foreseeable chance for some real wintry weather?

Posted by: dmackerman6226

-------------------------------------------

DECEMBER

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | February 9, 2011 2:54 PM | Report abuse

"Tulsa has received about six inches of snow bringing its seasonal total to 26", its snowiest winter on record.Tulsa has received about six inches of snow bringing its seasonal total to 26", its snowiest winter on record."

26 inches of snow for the whole winter is a record? Meh, we get more than that in one snowstorm.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 9, 2011 3:09 PM | Report abuse

waterfrontproperty,
are you looking at something on the models? i don't see anything on the 18z GFS for the next 7320 hours.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2011 3:18 PM | Report abuse

May the models for 50's and 60's next week be every bit as accurate as they were last week in predicting a foot of snow today! ;-)

Posted by: ftwash | February 9, 2011 3:22 PM | Report abuse

Walter, I just posted a comment to Don Lipman's article concerning your your question on the uniqueness of the March 1993 super storm. Can't keep up with all the new threads

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2011 3:26 PM | Report abuse

"the Walmart Home office in Bentonville has been closed for the first time ever."

There goes the economic recovery...

Posted by: petworthlad | February 9, 2011 3:31 PM | Report abuse

More germane: reading about huge snowfall in AR, OK, and through the deep south this year should make me kind of happy, but after this suckiest of winters here, I'm just bitter.

Posted by: petworthlad | February 9, 2011 3:33 PM | Report abuse

thanks steve. i read your response and replied. please check it out on don's thread, because now i'm apparently really confused....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2011 3:41 PM | Report abuse

I'm getting conflicting readings on the temperature forecasts. The Weather Channel is calling for 40s to the end of next week (highest predicted is 48 on Sunday), substantially lower than what CWG has up. The NOAA goes up to the mid-50s (54 on Sunday and Monday) and then to 51 on Tues. and Wed.

Accuweather, seemingly as usual, provides the most drama in its forecast, taking us up to 60 by next Thursday and then (in the sketchy realm of predicting 10-15 days ahead) suddenly drops the temp to the 30s two weeks from now.

Posted by: mkarns | February 9, 2011 3:42 PM | Report abuse

I love snow...but this winter has been (with one exception) a big disappointment. Therefore, I'm quite ready to move on to the warmer weather, with the hope that we rapidly climb to and stay in the mid-70's for a long period of time (hopefully NOT back in the 90's by June like last summer- boooo!).

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2011 3:44 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ,
on one of the threads you were asking about salting. they have pre-treated the road in front of my house (which is on a street with an elementary school).

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2011 3:49 PM | Report abuse

It's interesting to watch what Global Warming can do, even now. I hope Inhofe is taking it all in, but....

Posted by: morphex | February 9, 2011 4:43 PM | Report abuse

O RLY?

Posted by: fakedude2 | February 9, 2011 6:33 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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