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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 03/ 3/2011

Forecast: Lots of sun but chill returns

By David Streit

Significant rains not expected until Sunday

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.


The sun is nice but the warmth has skipped town. Somebody send out the posse!
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter


Today: Sunny and much colder. 39-43. | Tonight: Clear and calm. 22-30. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, milder. 50-55. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


A typical first week of March seems to be underway. Today is a taste of the winter that has not receded that far to the north yet. Warmth comes charging right back as spring reasserts itself this weekend. But as spring is prone to do, a cool front pushes showers across the area on Sunday. We could see as much as an inch of rain to the benefit of all our gardens (are you seeing those first crocuses yet?) By the way, check out my garden & weather blog every other Thursday, starting next week.

Snow Potential Index: 0 (→) - It is not looking good for any late season snow events.

The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Thursday): There should be plenty of sun to greet the day but our warmth from yesterday is several hundred miles south of here! Breezes from the north let us know where the cold air is coming from. Highs only reach the lower 40s, about 10 degrees below normal. Confidence: High

Tonight: Get out the heavier coat again, the evening readings are back in the 30s. Calm winds are welcome after several weeks of wind. Clear skies make for some nice star gazing. Lows should dip to the lower 20s in the suburbs to near 30 downtown. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through Monday....

Friday: A switch in the winds to come from the south is a good omen today as we achieve the rarest of events, a seasonable day. Skies are mostly sunny and highs reach the low-to-mid 50s. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: There will be some high clouds this evening that could lead to a beautiful sunset, which is now occurring a little after 6 pm. Keep an eye on the sky and you will also be treated to a sliver of a crescent moon on the western horizon once dusk settles in. Temperatures hold in the 40s for the evening crowd. Lows should end up in the mid-to-upper 30s but lower 40s in the city. Confidence: Medium-High


Saturday should be clouding up pretty steadily throughout the morning. A few light showers are possible in the afternoon so an umbrella is not a bad idea. However, the main storm is out in the Midwest adding to their flooding woes. Breezes remain out of the south and temperatures peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Light showers are likely to be more frequent in the evening (40% chance). Lows only slip to the mid-to-upper 40s. Confidence: Medium

Sunday looks like a good day for indoor activities as showers and maybe even a thundershower should occupy much of the day (90% chance). Occasional moderate rains could tally up to give the area an inch of rain. That will help to start replenishing soil moisture for all those spring flowers that are about to pop up. Highs should be in the mid-to-upper 50s. The showers should taper off by sunset but clouds probably won't depart until later in the evening. Winds shift to come from the north with colder temperatures riding back into town. Lows reach the mid-to-upper 30s. Confidence: Medium

Monday morning should be all dried out, making for an uneventful commute. Sunshine is a little more intense this time of year and helps us to reach the low-to-mid 50s despite those winds from the north. Confidence: Medium

By David Streit  | March 3, 2011; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: My perceptions of winter, a review: Part II


Is there the posibility for more than an inch or rain? and when on saturday will this sart.

Posted by: snowlover31 | March 3, 2011 6:38 AM | Report abuse

@snowlover31 I have seen models ranging between a half inch to as much as an inch and three-quarters. I would still lean to the 1 inch based on consensus. There could be a light showers anytime Saturday but I would not expect significant rains until the evening.

Posted by: davidstreit2 | March 3, 2011 7:03 AM | Report abuse


Posted by: snowlover31 | March 3, 2011 7:19 AM | Report abuse

Chilly 20s here in the metro region this morning, but near zero in north central PA, and below zero in upstate New York. Saranac Lake, NY fell to -23 this morning!

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | March 3, 2011 8:12 AM | Report abuse

Saw the first crocuses the weekend before last in McLean.

Posted by: wiredog | March 3, 2011 9:01 AM | Report abuse

Wish we could bottle up some of these chilly morning breezes, and then break them out in August when they're really needed.
Apparently squirrels did not get all of my tri-color crocuses planted last fall. They are pushing up, along with some very early species tulips. This weekend we were going to start the dirt work of preparing a new raspberry patch, but the rain forecast will probably push that back another week.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | March 3, 2011 9:15 AM | Report abuse

Ugh. Have a 5k on Sunday morning. Looks like it's going to be a soggy run.

Posted by: marklandterrapins | March 3, 2011 9:35 AM | Report abuse

Colder than a witch's something out there isn't it?

Posted by: rwalker66 | March 3, 2011 10:21 AM | Report abuse

rwalker66 - it is a bit chilly, but are you finding the sunshine does/doesn't help compensate?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | March 3, 2011 11:57 AM | Report abuse

Well this morning the sun wasn't doing much good when the temp was in the low 20's. It felt like early January instead of early March.

Posted by: rwalker66 | March 3, 2011 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Finally...we get a strong, cold high in the right place...and what does it do???

Instead of anchoring over New York State/Quebec, it moves east and brings the WAA [warm-air advection] back over us!!!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | March 3, 2011 12:17 PM | Report abuse

Bombo47jea, if you're not happy with 10+ degrees below average, frigid wintry conditions, then move to Alaska.

As for me, I'm excited for some 60+F weather. Any chance this Saturday will hit 70F?

Posted by: bastings | March 3, 2011 3:25 PM | Report abuse

Bombo and I finally agree on something!! Fantastic chilly air, but positioned in the wrong location to give us snow. How pathetic a winter was this?!

Had client meetings down South earlier in the week, thus I missed our delicious rain from Monday. While National recorded .66", the Weatherbug station at Children's Hospital had 1.12"! Even with that, we remain below-normal YTD.

Looking forward to Sunday's rain. Let it be really juicy!!

Posted by: TominMichiganParkDC | March 3, 2011 5:51 PM | Report abuse

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