I'm not one for exaggerating or overhyping the weather, but it sure does seem to get wilder by the moment around here lately. Even as today's winds gust over 50 mph in the wake of yesterday's record-breaking mid-to-upper 70s, we have another weather threat to track - a chance of snow Monday night into early Tuesday.
During a winter where almost every precipitation forecast has been tough, predicting Wednesday's storm may be the most challenging. What we can now say with confidence is a storm is quite likely beginning early Wednesday morning with precipitation taking multiple forms across the region before it all ends Wednesday night.
The storm threat we've been tracking for many days now has been pushed back slightly again. It now appears that Wednesday should feature the brunt of precipitation. The rain/snow line currently wants to set up somewhere in the area, putting those west of D.C. at greater risk for accumulation than those to the east. Nevertheless, odds seem good for everyone to see some snow fall.
Computer models have come into pretty good agreement that a significant storm will develop in the South early this coming week. However, there is a lot of variability in the projected storm track - which is the key to this forecast. The important thing to emphasize right now is that the cold air necessary for snow will be moving away as this storm approaches. So unless the storm takes the perfect track - far enough east to hold remnant cold air in place but close enough to us for significant precipitation - we're almost certainly going to have some, if not mostly rain.
The models are converging toward the possibility of a winter storm Tuesday into Wednesday. The cold air mass settling over the region now now is setting the stage for wintry precipitation. However, like most such storms projected so far into the future, there is a lot of uncertainty about the storm's track and intensity. The majority of the models suggest this storm will have quite a bit of precipitation with it. How much of the precipitation will be snow, sleet or rain is very much in question.
We've been on the edge of almost every snowstorm this winter, struggling to accumulate an inch from any given event. Here we go again. We're on the southern fringe of a storm system in the works for late Thursday night through Friday's rush hour. Most likely snowfall accumulations are from a dusting to an inch or two over most of the area