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Posted at 12:20 PM ET, 01/12/2011

Golden Globes 2011: A first round of predictions

By Jen Chaney

Is Christian Bale a given as a Golden Globe winner? (Paramount Pictures via AP)

The Golden Globe Awards are just four days away. And that means it's time to start making some predictions.

Every day for the next three days, I'll prognosticate (read: guess) who is going to win in several of the major categories. The focus will primarily be on movies, since the film awards carry a bit more significance as we speed toward the Academy Awards.

Today I'll cover the potential winners in the best screenplay, director and supporting actor categories, then give readers the chance to make some predictions of their own.

Best Screenplay -- Motion Picture

Your nominees are:

Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle -- "127 Hours"
Christopher Nolan -- "Inception"
Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko -- "The Kids Are All Right"
David Seidler -- "The King's Speech"
Aaron Sorkin -- "The Social Network"

Your winner will be: Aaron Sorkin for "The Social Network." All of the screenplays in this category are strong, but Sorkin's stands out for its sharp, high-speed-Internet dialogue. Given the awards momentum behind the film, it's hard to imagine the Hollywood Foreign Press Association not rewarding Sorkin here.

Best Director -- Motion Picture

Your nominees are:

Darren Aronofsky -- "Black Swan"
David Fincher -- "The Social Network"
Tom Hooper -- "The King's Speech"
Christopher Nolan -- "Inception"
David O. Russell -- "The Fighter"

Your winner will be: David Fincher for "The Social Network." Again, I think the momentum behind the film is too strong to beat at this point. And Fincher really did a masterful job of bringing what could have been an overly talky, visually bland story to heart-pumping, eye-popping life. Like the Globe prognosticators over at the Moviefone blog, I think the only contender who could sneak in and win is Aronofsky, simply because his over-the-top take on the perils of artistic immersion strikes me as the kind of thing members of the Foreign Press slurp up with a soup spoon. But I'm sticking with Fincher as my pick.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Your nominees are:

Christian Bale -- "The Fighter"
Michael Douglas -- "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps"
Andrew Garfield -- "The Social Network"
Jeremy Renner -- "The Town"
Geoffrey Rush -- "The King's Speech"

Your winner will be: Christian Bale. Some love may be shown to the Gordon Gekko-reprising Douglas and the exceptional up-and-coming Garfield, but Bale should prevail. His performance as Dicky Eklund stands out as the most breathtaking transformation here; as a U.Kk native, he also may win a bit of extra affection from HFPA voters.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Your nominees are:

Amy Adams -- "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter -- "The King's Speech"
Mila Kunis -- "Black Swan"
Melissa Leo -- "The Fighter"
Jacki Weaver -- "Animal Kingdom"

Your winner will be: Melissa Leo ... I think. This may be the hardest of all the movie-oriented races to call. The team of awards-show-savvy minds at Gold Derby are definitely split on this one, although the majority of them think Leo will win. Given the Globes' occasional surprises, though, it wouldn't be out of the realm for Carter or Weaver to sneak in and grab the prize. But most likely, this comes down to the two ladies from "The Fighter," and I think Leo's mix of grit and motherly love will give her the edge.

Okay, now it's your turn. Who do you think will win in these four categories? Vote in the polls below.

By Jen Chaney  | January 12, 2011; 12:20 PM ET
Categories:  Awards Season, Movies  
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I think Christian Bale's performance in "The Fighter" is begin severely overrated. He's very solid, but is very much a caricature and cliched. Geoffrey Rush was far superior in "The King's Speech."

This might very well be the year for Aronofsky. Fincher is good, but he is being propped up by Sorkin's script, even though I think the Coen's adapted screenplay is even better. Arornofky does so much with the camera and staging to bring the viewers into a world they would rarely see, while Fincher creates a psue-documentary world with lots of wide shots. They are both deserving, but Aronofsky is due.

Posted by: Russtinator | January 12, 2011 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Bear in mind that the HFPA is a small coterie of FOREIGN press, who tend to skew a bit toward a European sensibility.

Posted by: Nosy_Parker | January 12, 2011 1:16 PM | Report abuse

Good to see you back, Russtinator. I enjoy your insightful observations!

Posted by: Nosy_Parker | January 12, 2011 2:10 PM | Report abuse

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