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Posted at 1:40 PM ET, 01/14/2011

Golden Globes 2011: Predicting the best picture and TV show winners

By Jen Chaney

Will we hear an acceptance speech for "The King's Speech" on Golden Globe night? (Weinstein Co.)

I told you who will win Golden Globe Awards on Sunday in the best screenplay, director and supporting actor categories. I also told you who's got a lock on triumphing in the lead actor categories.

Now it's time to predict the winners in the best picture and best TV show races. Read on, decide whether or not you agree with my picks, then make your own predictions by voting in one of our uber-scientific online polls.

Let the educated guessing begin.

Best Television Series -- Comedy or Musical

Your nominees are:

"30 Rock"
"The Big Bang Theory"
"The Big C"
"Glee"
"Modern Family"
"Nurse Jackie"

And your winner will be: "The Big C." Even though the Golden Globe movie races are deemed more significant because of where they fall on the awards season calendar, it's the TV ones that are often more intriguing and harder to call. And so it is this year. I think this race is ultimately between "Modern Family" and "The Big C." ("Glee" won in this category last year.) Given the Hollywood Foreign Press's tendency to go with the new kid on the block when it comes to their television trophies, I'm sticking with Showtime's cancer comedy as the winner, with the caveat that "Family" also has a very solid shot. I wouldn't completely rule out "Big Bang Theory" or "Glee" either ... did I mention this is a hard one to call?

Best Television Series -- Drama

Your nominees are:

"Boardwalk Empire"
"Dexter"
"The Good Wife"
"Mad Men"
"Walking Dead"

And your winner will be: "Boardwalk Empire." "Mad Men" has won in this category for the past three years. It's time for something edgy and new to take over, which means the victor could be "Walking Dead" or "Boardwalk Empire." I say "Empire," purely because it's cinematic and Martin Scorsese is involved. And the Foreign Press -- along with, you know, most people -- loves Scorsese.

Best Motion Picture -- Comedy or Musical

Your nominees are:

"Alice in Wonderland"
"Burlesque"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"Red"
"The Tourist"

And your winner will be: "The Kids Are All Right." Because what else is going to win, "Burlesque"?

Best Motion Picture -- Drama

Your nominees are:

"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"

And your winner will be: "The Social Network." This will undoubtedly be the most interesting category of the night, not only because it's (arguably) the "most important" and most likely to be analyzed to death ahead of the Academy Awards, but because it's conceivable to imagine any one of these excellent films winning. Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly is predicting a "King's Speech" sweep and gives the advantage to that film because the HFPA voters "prefer prestige." Meanwhile, the pundit panel at Gold Derby is nearly evenly split, with a dozen of their prognosticators going with "King's Speech" and 11 siding with "Social Network." (Guy Lodge of the In Contention blog apparently stands alone in his belief that "The Fighter" will win.)

I'm sticking with "Social Network" simply because the awards-season tide has been with it so far. But of course, that tide could easily turn come Sunday.

Speaking of Sunday, don't forget to join me and Liz right here in this blog to discuss all the red carpet shenanigans, winners and losers, beginning at 6 p.m. ET. That's right -- readers can mock me for making incorrect Golden Globe predictions during a real, live chat.

In the meantime, please make your own predictions about the big four categories via the polls below.

Related coverage:

Golden Globe predictions in the lead actor and actress categories

Golden Globe predictions in the screenplay, directing and supporting actor categories

Join us for Sunday's Globes show

By Jen Chaney  | January 14, 2011; 1:40 PM ET
Categories:  Awards Season, Movies, TV  | Tags:  Golden Globes  
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Comments

I don't know why "The Big C" is predicted here. It isn't even that much of a critical darling, let along a ratings success (I think Spartacus Blood and Sand got better ratings on Showtime). This category will come down to "Modern Family" and "Glee." I would like to see "Modern Family" win, and it sure has been getting a lot of buzz lately while "Glee" has started to slide. This on'e s coin flip, but I think they will get it right and award the Globe to "Modern Family."

"Boardwalk Empire" is probably the biggest lock of all the TV categories. "Mad Men" might come close with it's past cache and trophy case, but "Boardwalk" has the edge of being on HBO and being of cinematic quality.

"The Kids Are All Right" wins in the category of movies that should never be nominated. "Red" was a fun film with a blockbuster cast, but really, best picture? These awards will lose whatever credibility they have left if anything other than "The Kids Are All Right" wins here.

I think "Black Swan" will take the Globe in the drama category. "The Social Network" has been slowly ramping up, and is significantly bolstered by this week's DVD/BluRay release. However, I think the Globes will actually go with the better film. "The King's Speech" has a chance, but I just felt that the film was more about the performances than the presentation as a whole. I would fall off my chair and give a standing ovation if "Inception" wins, but no awards giving-out group is going to give a trophy to a thought-provoking, inventive film. Whatever happens in this category doesn't really count since the HFPA completely neglected one of the best movies of the year, "True Grit."

Posted by: Russtinator | January 14, 2011 2:58 PM | Report abuse

The Fighter, The King's Speech, and The Social Network were all very good movies. But I will go with The Fighter as the best of the three. Christian Bale and Melissa Leo in the same movie. Gotta be good.

Posted by: fearturtle44 | January 14, 2011 3:15 PM | Report abuse

I just never thought the same guy who plays Mr. Darcy in every movie he makes would end up with a Golden Globe. I mean, I love him, and I haven't yet seen The King's Speech, but...just saying.

Posted by: HookedOnThePost | January 14, 2011 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Where's "True Grit"????

Posted by: AllentheCrank | January 14, 2011 4:15 PM | Report abuse

HookedOnThePost: this is one of the few films where Colin Firth does not once again give us Mr. Darcy. His director got a wonderful performance from him, and you will not think of Pride & Prejudice when you see The King's Speech.

Posted by: lanehatcher | January 14, 2011 6:09 PM | Report abuse

The Social Network will win for best drama. Sometimes the Globes get it right. The Social Network is not only the best film of the year, it is the best American film since Elephant (2003).

Posted by: nyrunner101 | January 14, 2011 10:14 PM | Report abuse

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Posted by: zhengee01 | January 14, 2011 10:42 PM | Report abuse

The "Fighter" should win, but it probably is too much of a niche film. A great ensemble cast, and Christian Bale nailed the character of Dicky Eklund; I guess one would have to have some street experience to appreciate that. However, as we are on an accelerated path to the future as seen by Adam Corolla, i.e., “In Fifty Years We’ll All Be Chicks,” the market that made “Raging Bull” such a big hit has considerably thinned. It brought me to tears, but most chicks would not get it. But, then, I thought “Cinderella Man’ and Crowe didn’t get the recognition it and he deserved; I am a sucker for a story about the sweet science.

Posted by: csintala79 | January 15, 2011 11:18 AM | Report abuse

The "Fighter" should win, but it probably is too much of a niche film. A great ensemble cast, and Christian Bale nailed the character of Dicky Eklund; I guess one would have to have some street experience to appreciate that. However, as we are on an accelerated path to the future as seen by Adam Corolla, i.e., “In Fifty Years We’ll All Be Chicks,” the market that made “Raging Bull” such a big hit has considerably thinned. It brought me to tears, but most chicks would not get it. But, then, I thought “Cinderella Man’ and Crowe didn’t get the recognition it and he deserved; I am a sucker for a story about the sweet science.

Posted by: csintala79 | January 15, 2011 11:19 AM | Report abuse

I don't see "The Big C" winning. Linney may get a nod for her performance -- the entire show is designed as Emmy-bait for her performance -- but having watched the entire first season, it's definitely less than the sum of its parts.

Posted by: MockingbirdGirl | January 16, 2011 1:55 PM | Report abuse

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