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Posted at 1:56 PM ET, 01/21/2011

The Oscars 2011: Predicting the supporting actor and actress nominees

By Jen Chaney

Mila Kunis: in or out as an Oscar nominee? (Fox Searchlight)

Now that we've all had a few days to breathe since Sunday's Golden Globe Awards, it's time to start prognosticating again.

The Academy Award nominations will be announced Tuesday. After reading the tea leaves -- or at least reading other movie sites and film blogs -- and checking my own gut feelings, I'm ready to lay out who I think will be nominated in the six Oscar categories: best picture, director, actor, actress and supporting actor and actress. Let's start today with the supporting categories.

And yes, you can weigh in with a comment, or by ranking potential nominees yourself via the user polls that follow.

Best supporting actor

Your nominees will be:

Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
-- Can't see how this is anything but a lock at this point.

Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech" -- Ditto for Rush.

Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right" -- Ruffalo has never been nominated for an Oscar. Given the amount of great work he's done in recent years, and his SAG Award nomination, I think he'll make it into the final five.

Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network" -- There has been some speculation that the "Social Network" co-star -- and the new Peter Parker -- might get snubbed on Tuesday. He didn't get a SAG Award nomination, usually a good metric for predicting who will be nominated by the Academy's acting branch. It's possible he might get overlooked, but I'm still predicting (and hoping) he squeezes into the field.

John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone" -- This is a bold call on my part, but I figure there's usually one lower profile, semi-surprise among the nominees. And Hawkes -- whose excellent work in this indie got one of those key SAG nominations -- might be that semi-surprise.

In this scenario, which key potential contenders get left out?

Jeremy Renner ("The Town"), Michael Douglas ("Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps"), Matt Damon ("True Grit")

Best supporting actress

Your nominees will be:

Amy Adams, "The Fighter" -- There has been so much support for the performances in the David O. Russell boxing drama, she seems like a lock. As does..

Melissa Leo, "The Fighter" -- She won the Golden Globe. And while that doesn't mean she will win the Oscar, she'll surely at least be nominated.

Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech" -- In keeping with what should be a strong Oscar showing for this story of a stammering king, Carter will be nominated for her understated, truly supportive performance as Queen Elizabeth.

Mila Kunis, "Black Swan" -- With Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations already earned, she looks poised to add Academy Award nod to that list.

Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom" -- This Australian actress earned critical acclaim and a Golden Globe nomination for her turn as the head of a crime family. I predict she sneaks in here because another potential contender in this race will find herself competing for the lead actress Oscar.

In this scenario, which key potential contenders get left out?

Hailee Steinfeld ("True Grit"), although, as implied above, this won't be the last you hear of Steinfeld.

Note: I updated this post and the poll below to remove Lesley Manville, who I accidentally put here instead of in the lead actress category. My apologies for the error.

On Monday, I'll lay out my guesses predictions in the best picture, director and lead acting categories. In the meantime, feel free to vote below and rank the potential supporting nominees in order of most to least likely to be nominated.

By Jen Chaney  | January 21, 2011; 1:56 PM ET
Categories:  Awards Season, Movies  | Tags:  Oscars  
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Jen, why wouldn't Hailee Steinfeld be a lead actress? There were no feamle roles in True Grit that came close to hers, and she had equal screen time with Jeff Bridges.

Posted by: sasquatchbigfoot | January 21, 2011 5:21 PM | Report abuse

I love HBC's performance -- but it wasn't as Queen Elizabeth -- she was the Queen Mum. Elizabeth appeared, properly, as a child.

Posted by: christinearvidson | January 24, 2011 8:00 PM | Report abuse

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