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Posted at 12:07 PM ET, 02/21/2011

Oscars 2011: Predicting the screenplay winners

By Jen Chaney

The Academy Awards are this Sunday. For those who are filling out their own ballots -- either for fun or as part of an office pool -- that means it's crunch time for Oscar predictions.

With that in mind, Post film critic Ann Hornaday and I have made a series of videos in which we do some Oscar forecasting of our own, as well as weigh in with general opinions about some of the key categories. We'll roll out a new video each day this week, starting on this President's Day with a look at the best original and adapted screenplay races. Watch and mark your ballots accordingly.

Related coverage:

Five reasons the Oscar ceremony may be less predictable this year

Who will make a cameo appearance in the Oscar opening number?

The Oscar curse is real. Science says so.

By Jen Chaney  | February 21, 2011; 12:07 PM ET
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Here is a statistical model that would be indispensable for anyone trying to predict the Oscars. It looks at past winners and previous awards to see how things match up, and it looks pretty certain on the Screenplay categories:

Posted by: BGoegan | February 21, 2011 1:25 PM | Report abuse

Don't want to watch videos. Want to read.

Posted by: dottie_b | February 21, 2011 4:36 PM | Report abuse

No modern movie should win. Today's movies are so bad and the scripts/plots so trite/banal that they have to make re-make after re-make--True Grit?

The decline of the movies was heralded by the lengthening of the name of the "stars":

From Ava Gardner to Catherine Zeta Jones; from Cary Grant to Leonardo Di Caprio; from Ann Southern to Renee Zellwegger; from Betty Grable to Sarah Jessica Parker.

Ever notice in movie ads they no longer feature the stars as in : "Faye Wray In King Kong." Why? The marquees aren't big enough!

Posted by: fregameeate | February 21, 2011 9:20 PM | Report abuse

These awards are nothing but a political, social and economic exercise. Look at the winners vs. the non winners over the past years and it's appalling. Last year was particularly instructive when they went for the atrocious Hurt Locker merely to slap 'King of the World' Cameron and validate his maligned ex wife. Avatar was just another bug movie with great special effects. Personally, I thought 'Young Victoria' was the best but it may have won a booby prize for costumes. It was much more than that. They don't make them like Lawrence or Zhivago anymore.

Posted by: stugots711 | February 22, 2011 3:33 AM | Report abuse

where are the predictions????????

Posted by: MidwestHollywood | February 24, 2011 1:46 AM | Report abuse

where are the oscar predictions????????

Posted by: MidwestHollywood | February 24, 2011 1:47 AM | Report abuse

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