The Skins' Final, Glorious Playoff Push
Just in case you've missed his/her comment, I'd like to once again thank "Deranged Fan" for stopping by to explain, in 919 words, how the Redskins could win the NFC East this year. I'd say that's basically a 50-50 shot at this point. And if the division title doesn't pan out, it would seem the Skins have about an 80 percent chance of getting a wild card.
I swear, it'll be late January and the rest of the world will be previewing the conference championship games, and Skins fans will be coming up with scenarios in which nuclear holocaust obliterates the entire world besides Ashburn, and the Skins are given a free pass into the Super Bowl, where they'll face a team made up of giant radioactive worms, who will be immediately installed as two-touchdown favorites, because at least their safeties and cornerbacks will meet together.
But actually, if the Skins win out, I have to say the wild card is a distinct possibility. Here's Deranged Fan's take.....
thank goodness Vincent has not given up on the Skins -- I havent:
Ok, I am doing this only to make it feel worthwhile to watch football this sunday.
What will it take for an 8-8 Redskins to make the playoffs this year? A little bit of help -- but help that could come.
Here are the teams that are in contention for 8-8
Philly -- 6-6, (5-3)
Giants -- 6-6 (5-3)
Atlanta -- 6-6 (4-4)
Carolina -- 6-6 (4-5)
Minnesota -- 5-7 (5-4)
SF -- 5-7 (4-5)
St. Louis -- 5-7 (4-5)
Redsinks-- 4-8 (2-6)
and Green Bay -- 4-8 (3-5)
The skins will need to win out, which gives them the following record:
Redskins -- 8-8 (6-6)
Of the teams above, we win the wild card tie-breaker against Carolina and St. Louis. We would lose the tie breaker against all other teams that reach 8-8 (We'd tie head to head against Philly and the Giants, but if they win two more games their conference record will be superior to ours no matter what we do).
So, to get in, only one of the teams below can do _better_ than:
Philly -- 7-9 -- which means they win 1 and lose 3 in the final 4 games.
Giants -- 7-9 -- 1-3
Atlanta -- 7-9 -- 1-3
Carolina -- 8-8 -- 2-2
Minnesota -- 7-9 -- 2-2
SF -- 7-9 -- 2-2
St. Louis -- 8-8 -- 3-1
GB -- 7-9 -- 3-1
Lets pick off the lower teams first.
Green bay need only lose one game -- and their final game is on the road vs. chicago, where they will lose.
Since we will beat St. Louis, they are out vs. the skins.
SF has games against Green Bay, Seattle, Arizona, and Denver. Seattle and Denver are on the road -- they lose those games, as should be expected, they are out vs. the 'skins.
Minnesota has a soft schedule the rest of the way -- at Detroit and GB. Home vs. Jets and St. Louis. Essentially, it is a crapshoot that they lose 2 of these games -- since they have lost 5 of 6, I think we can hope. Lets say they lose to GB and the Jets.
Carolina has home games against the Giants and Pittsburgh, and road games against Atlanta and New Orleans. That is a tough schedule -- I bet they lose 2 of them (away at NO, for sure). But they also might have to _win_ their games against the Giants and Atlanta in certain circumstances. This is where things start looking like a tight rope act.
Now we get to the final 3 teams -- 2 of which must go 1-4 for the 'skins to get in. And the other team basically has to do quite well to knock out the other two teams, since they play each other. There are several ways this could come down.
Philly: at Giants, at 'skins, at Dallas, Atlanta.
Giants: at Carolina, Philly, NO, at Washington
Atlanta: at TB, Dallas, Carolina, at Philly
Scenario 1 -- Philly pulls it together w/Garcia:
Philly loses to the 'skins, but beats the Giants and Atlanta.
Giants beat either Carolina or New Orleans, but lose to Philly and the 'skins.
Atlanta loses to Philly, and beats only one among TB, Dallas, or Carolina.
If that happens, 'skins are in.
Scenario 2 -- Giants stop the madness
Giants: Loses to the 'skins, but beats Philly and Carolina. Does not matter what happens against NO.
Philly: Loses to Giants, 'skins, and Dallas. Beats Atlanta.
Atlanta: Loses to Dallas, Carolina, and Philly. Beats TB. (alternatively, beats Philly, but loses to the rest of the teams).
again, 'skins are in.
Scenario 3 -- late season Vick magic.
Atlanta: Beats Philly and Carolina. Does not matter what happens against TB and Dallas
Giants: Lose to 'skins, NO, Carolina. Does not matter what happens against Philly.
Philly: Loses to 'skins, Atlanta, and Dallas. Does not matter what happens against Philly.
(bottom line is whoever wins the Giants/Philly game must lose their other three games).
'skins are in.
Scenario 4 -- Redskins come in 5th!!
Philly: Beats Giants or Atlanta, loses the rest of the games.
Giants: If they beat Philly, lose the rest of their games.
Atlanta: If they beat Philly, lose the rest of their games.
Oh, and just for fun, Scenario 5 -- Redskins win the division!!
Dallas: Loses to NO, Atlanta, Philly, Detroit -- ends up 8-8 with a 3-3 division record.
Philly: Beats Dallas, but loses to Giants, Redskins, Atlanta
Giants: Beats Philly, but loses to Carolina, NO, and Washington.
Skins: win out, for a 8-8 record, with a 3-3 division record. We then have to go to record in "common games," where we would also tie Dallas (both 6-6). Then we go to Conference Games, where we beat Dallas -- we would be 6-6, and Dallas 5-7. There you have it, skins win the division.
I'll be honest, scenario 1 is not at all far fetched -- Philly is kind of getting things together, while the Giants and Atlanta have really come apart. It could happen! Don't give up hope _quite_ yet.
Bottom line is, for this weekend, root for:
Redskins over Philly
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Carolina over Giants (could go either way)
Detroit over Minnesota
Green Bay over San Francisco
unless they lose, the 'skins can't be eliminated no matter what happens with the other teams. But we need help starting now to set this thing up!
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