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Seeding the locals

What a gut-wrenching loss after a terrific tournament run by George Mason. Who could have imagined that Mason would have a five-point lead with the ball with two minutes left and wind up losing the game in regulation? VCU scored 13 points in the final two minutes. With the Patriots out, it looks like we're destined to have four area schools in the NCAA tournament, unless George Washington wins the Atlantic-10 title. Here is an early look at the best and worst case seed scenarios for those teams:

Best case: Outside chance at a 2 if the Terps win the ACC tournament
Worst case: Even a loss to lowly Miami should not drop Maryland any further than 5, perhaps 6.
The safe range is a seed between 3 and 5.

Best case: Outside chance at a 1 if teams such as Kansas, UCLA or Florida falter
Worst case: The Hoyas should still receive a top-four seed even if they don't make the Big East final.

Best case: Perhaps a 3 if the Cavaliers win the ACC tournament.
Worst case: Perhaps a 6 if they lose Friday, perhaps even a 7.

Virginia Tech
Best case: Should be in the 3 range if the Hokies win the ACC tournament
Worst case: Perhaps a fall to 6 if they lose Friday, maybe even 7.

Have at it. Where does everyone think these teams will wind up?

By Eric Prisbell  |  March 6, 2007; 8:27 AM ET
Categories:  College Basketball  
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Maryland: 4
Georgetown: 2
Virginia: 6
Virginia Tech: 4

Of course, these are based on future chances are I will be 100% wrong.

Posted by: AV | March 6, 2007 8:41 AM | Report abuse

Hats off to that VCU guard for singlehandedly winning the game. Tough for this Patriot alum to watch, but I'll always have the UConn memories.

Posted by: jhorstma | March 6, 2007 8:45 AM | Report abuse

I think there is a better chance of you being 50-75% wrong, AV.

Posted by: sitruc | March 6, 2007 8:58 AM | Report abuse

Does anybody else hate that title...."Seeding the locals", um no thanks.

Posted by: BlueberryRuffin | March 6, 2007 10:02 AM | Report abuse

Georgetown - 2
Maryland - 3
Virginia - 7
Virginia Tech - 6

And I found a silver lining in Mason's loss last night: After following VCU and ODU all season in the Atlantic Eleven poll, I'd like to see both of them get into the big dance. They probably both deserve it and if Mason won, one of them wouldn't have made it. Then again, one of them might not make it anyway.

Posted by: Reader Glenn | March 6, 2007 10:13 AM | Report abuse

ODU got a great win at home.

Mason lost that game as surely as ODU won it; something for them to think about as they march through the end of this semester in Fairfax.

Posted by: ouij | March 6, 2007 10:24 AM | Report abuse

Ouij - "ODU got a great win at home." - are you referring to their recent win(s) over Towson? I guess some would consider them as "great", but to me their earlier road win over Georgetown better earns that platitude. Why though will this be something Mason thinks about through the end of the semester?

Posted by: Rob Iola | March 6, 2007 10:32 AM | Report abuse

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't VCU a local school, at least on this blog? Where are they going to be seeded?

Posted by: Robert Lintott | March 6, 2007 10:35 AM | Report abuse

brain on insufficient coffee.


(that's "change ODU to VCU, everywhere I've written it")

/me sips from a mug of the dark stuff

aaaah. OK, yes. What I really meant in my earlier comment was: Mason lost last night as much as they were beaten. They played tough, but their mistakes at the end caught up with them.

What they'll think about is that the game was eminently *winnable*. They had it in hand--and VCU took it out of their hands, literally.

Posted by: ouij | March 6, 2007 11:02 AM | Report abuse

I agree with Robert. Isn't VCU an "area" school, both in terms of the Top 11 poll, and the fact that you're including Virgina Tech in you list, when VCU is physically closer to the DC Metro area? Or should we sic Feinstein on your butts for only mentioning major conference teams and forgetting the little guys.

Posted by: Shawn | March 6, 2007 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Maryland is a solid 3 if they win two this weekend. Beating UNC on Saturday and then winning the ACCT takes them to a 2. Beat UNC and lose in the finals keeps them as a 3.

Posted by: Wes Mantooth | March 6, 2007 12:40 PM | Report abuse

I realize everybody loves Maryland at the Post, but a 3 seed? And UVA, VT at 6 or 7? I see UVA and VT as 4 or 5 each and Maryland at 5 or 6. Keep in mind that VT and UVA are combined 3-0 against Maryland and both finished ahead of them in the conference.

Posted by: Ryan | March 6, 2007 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Maryland's RPI destroys both UVA's and Tech's, and their RPI says they are on the 3/4 borderline. Maryland's last 10 will also factor in the seeding.

Posted by: Wes Mantooth | March 6, 2007 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Forget the NCAA tourney, what would the local tourney look like?

1 - Georgetown
2 - Maryland
3 - Va. Tech
4 - Virginia (aka Weenieland)
5 - ODU
6 - VCU
7 - George Mason
8 - GW

Let's play that tournament! Yeah! Disregard other localities!

Posted by: Lindemann | March 6, 2007 1:12 PM | Report abuse

Georgetown - 2
Maryland - 3
Virginia - 6
Virginia Tech - 5
VCU - 15

Totally agreed about the RPI comment. It's true that Maryland's RPI puts them at a 4/3 seed. I think the 3 seed will be dependent on winning atleast 2 in the ACC tourny. And even if UMD wins the tourny, I think the 2 seed is possible, but dependent on how the teams above us do in their tournys.

"Keep in mind that VT and UVA are combined 3-0 against Maryland and both finished ahead of them in the conference."

You also have to take into account that Maryland is on a 7 game winning streak with some big wins in there (#16/#14 Duke twice, #5 UNC). Both VT and VA have faltered a bit coming down the road (losses to Clemson, NC State and losses to Wake Forest, Miami). The selection committee puts weight on the end of the season. Overall record plays a factor too. (Record/RPI) UMD: 24-7 /10 VA: 20-9 /41 VT: 20-10 /31

Maryland has peaked at the right time. GO TERPS!!!

Posted by: Laura | March 6, 2007 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Georgetown 2
Maryland 4
VT 6
VCU 12
ODU 13

Posted by: Peter Keszler | March 6, 2007 3:52 PM | Report abuse

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