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Get Ready for the Correction

When I read Boswell's sunshine-and-daffodils homage to the Nats and the Plan this AM, the first thing I thought was: "hmmm, I'll betcha the bloggers are going to have something to say about this."


As our caption in the paper said, "Things were just out of reach last night for Cristian Guzman and the Nationals." (By Toni L. Sandys - TWP)

Sure enough, they did. Harper at OMG points out the "little things that annoy me in roughly every other sentence he writes," and then concludes thus:

The pieces are coming together. Things are looking up. The future is bright and you should start putting some money away in a secret account to buy some shades. But don't believe the "sooner rather than later" talk. 2010 if it all works out.

Chris at CP worries that the Nats, or at least Boz's version of the Nats, might trend toward the Orioles model, but more interesting to me is this:

Incidentally, I'm sick of attempts to evaluate "The PLAN!" after 50 games; it's not about this season, but about where the team is in 2010, but that's a diatribe for another day.

Can't wait. Anyhow, I'm all for 12-5 streaks and best records in the majors over 17-game stretches and having fun and pretending it's so amazing that the awesome Nats have climbed up to 27th place when all the smart people thought they'd be buried in 30th, but then they lose 10-0 at home and, well, as the Bad Nats Blog says, "Hey, Remember Real Life?"

Hooray Hooray! A big losing for the Bad Nats. Horrible pitch throwing, zero offense, crazy throws for no reason! Oh a perfect Bad Nats game!

And, assuming that the Nats are even approximately what we all think they are, a major correction could be in the works. See, going 12-5 and having the best record in the bigs over a 17-game stretch isn't all that strange for a bad team:

* The terrible 2006 Kansas City Royals, who lost 100 games, went 13-5 over one stretch.

* The awful 2005 Colorado Rockies, who lost 95 games, went 11-4 over one stretch.

* The sickening 2005 Royals, who lost 105 games, went 11-4 over one stretch.

* The dreadful 2004 Seattle Mariners, who lost 99 games, went 10-4 over one stretch.

* The appalling 2003 Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who lost 99 games, went 11-5 over one stretch.

* The horrific 2003 San Diego Padres, who lost 98 games, went 10-4 two different times.

* Even the putrescent 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks, who lost a magnificent 111 games, went 8-4 twice.

These Nats are now on pace to lose just 97 games, which would certainly be an achievement, but even so, their hot streak is very much in keeping with hot streaks gone by. But such streaks tend to be followed hard by nasty losing streaks. Which is why, homestand or no homestand, cheerful Boz or no cheerful Boz, I'd advise you to get ready for the correction.


By Dan Steinberg  |  May 30, 2007; 12:24 PM ET
Categories:  Nats  
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