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Skins: Underdogs to Dallas?


(Sept. photo by Matt Slocum - AP)


For several weeks I've been wondering whether the Redskins might play their final 11 regular-season games without being Vegas underdogs. I figured the Giants game would be the biggest, and possibly only, stumbling block. But I didn't count on this: depending on where you look, the Skins are anywhere from 1 to 2 point dogs, at home, against a team that lost its past two road games by a combined 41 points. It's the first time Washington has been a home dog this season. Baffling.

Even more so because that number doesn't come close to reflecting the Las Vegas Sports Consultants power rankings. As I've often said, these oddsmakers rankings aren't hard-and-fast measures of point spreads; the latter take into account public opinion and the flow of money, while the former are just objective assessments.

The oddsmakers' latest numbers indicate that Washington actually should be favored by about three points this week, so if you have money burning a hole in your pocket, dump it all on the WAS box. And this is coming from someone who went 6-0 ATS in Express last week.

The Redskins actually moved up to 4th in the Vegas rankings this week, and are still virtual locks to be favored at San Francisco, Seattle, and Cincinnati (the 26th, 27th and 28th strongest clubs). Judging by the numbers, they will be slight favorites at home against Philly, and slight underdogs at home against the Giants and at Baltimore. But the numbers can obviously lie.

Washington is 0-2 against Vegas's Top Three teams, 1-1 against Vegas's Bottom Three teams, and 5-0 against everyone else. And, as before, if the Skins sweep the three cupcake road games and take just one of the four toss-ups, that'd mean 10-6 and, most likely, the postsesason.

Some more rankings from around the Web: ESPN.com says Washington is 5th, the Football Outsiders' math stuff says Washington is 12th, Sportsline says Washington is 5th, SI.com says Washington is 9th, the Sporting News says Washington is 7th, Yahoo! says Washington is 5th, and Fox Sports says 4th.

The full week 11 LVSC report:

1. New York Giants 144.4
2. Pittsburgh 143.4
3. Tennessee 143.0
4. Washington 141.1
5. Dallas 141.0
6. Philadelphia 140.9
7. New England 140.8
8. San Diego 140.5
9. Indianapolis 140.4
10. Carolina 140.2
11. Tampa Bay 139.9
12t. New York Jets 139.6
12t. Baltimore 139.6
14. Arizona 138.7
15t. Minnesota 138.5
15t. Green Bay 138.5
17. Jacksonville 137.6
18. New Orleans 137.3
19. Buffalo 136.9
20. Chicago 136.8
21. Atlanta 136.5
22. Denver 135.0
23. Miami 134.7
24. Cleveland 134.4
25. Houston 134.3
26. San Francisco 132.8
27. Seattle 132.2
28. Cincinnati 131.5
29t. Kansas City 131.1
29t. St. Louis 131.1
31. Detroit 129.8
32. Oakland 129.3

By Dan Steinberg  |  November 12, 2008; 3:18 PM ET
Categories:  NFL , Redskins  
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Next: Smoot Teaches Kids to Hate Dallas

Comments

Gotta be the injuries, right? Alexander starting at RB, Samuels hobbled, Moss ailing...

Posted by: shekb | November 12, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

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