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Redskins fans are incurable optimists

When the NFL schedule came out a year ago, The Post asked Redskins fans to predict how their team would do. We got nearly 6,000 votes. Using a weighted confidence scoring system, we determined that the team's total expected wins was 9.4. Not sure if you recall, but the Redskins wound up 4-12. Maybe the fans were overly optimistic.

Well, there's another schedule out, and again we're asking fans to predict what will happen. Turns out they're not at all deterred by last year's unsightly mess. Despite what appears to be a brutal schedule, the current total expected wins is 9.2. That's called incurable optimism.

It's also the reason the NFL destroys every other pro sports league; just about every fan base in the country would likely check in north of 9.0 on this quiz.

More notes from last year's survey, courtesy Jon DeNunzio.

* Users predicted the Redskins would get 2.5 wins vs. the NFC East, forecasting home wins against the Eagles and Cowboys. They were split on the home game against the Giants, which the Skins lost by 33 points. Washington didn't win an NFC East game.

* Two of the three most confident win predictions were the Lions (92 percent predicted a win) and the Chiefs (87 percent). Those turned out to be losses.

* The three games users were most pessimistic about -- at the Giants, at the Panthers and at the Cowboys -- all turned out to be losses, as expected.

By Dan Steinberg  |  April 21, 2010; 1:07 PM ET
Categories:  Redskins  
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Next: Cerrato's prediction: Okung to Redskins

Comments

I guess I'm one of the few Redskins fans who is a realist. Anything more than 5 wins and I will be shocked. You all are fools. FOOLS. Here's the quick rundown.

McNabb: marginal improvement at QB position. Likely to have broken ribs after being pummeled in first few weeks. Enter Rex Grossman.
O-Line: still terrible, plus a rookie LT probably.
RBs: washed up trio.
WRs: Same old.
TEs: our strength is two pass catching tight ends. Name me a team whose offensive success came from two TEs.
Defense: in for a steep decline. Changing systems, cut some key players and bringing in unknown replacements, key player aging (Fletcher), best player to be traded (Haynesworth). Yeah, a real recipe for success, that.
Coaching: Sounds real good, doesn't it. Remember Gibbs' first year?

We're effed. Might as well warm up to that fact now.

Posted by: ThisGuy | April 21, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

Only in Washington can you attend a baseball game to watch the home team with a winning record (until last night) during hockey playoff season and still hear that the only conversation amongst the fans is about the Redskins schedule.

I don't know what it says about DC that you can have a decent (for now) baseball team and the most exciting hockey team in the NHL and the only thing people want to talk about is a Redskins game that is five months away.

Posted by: rodeorob | April 21, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

One of the worst nights of sports radio of the year.

Right up there with every Friday during football season when the hosts and assorted "celebrity" guests go through and give their picks for the upcoming weekend.

Posted by: tha_prophet | April 21, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

5-11 IF they address the Offensive Line in the draft. If not, then 3 or 4 wins tops. The holes in this team are still there, and these things don't get fixed overnight. It'll take a while for Shanny to flush out the malcontents and really change the culture out there to where he wants it.

Posted by: kingrob76 | April 21, 2010 1:31 PM | Report abuse

ThisGuy:

You're absolutely right. I've been a realist for the past 6 years (since the 2nd Spurrier season). As long as Snyder owns this team, we will be mired in mediocrity. It doesn't matter who is "in charge", as long as Snyder lives and breathes, we're screwed as Redskin fans.

Posted by: Randy_Hawkins | April 21, 2010 1:32 PM | Report abuse

"Redskins fans are incurable optimists"


I...uh....um. Hmmmm.

Posted by: 4-12 | April 21, 2010 1:37 PM | Report abuse

I can only hope that the next Redskins season is as glorious to watch as this past one. How long is that waiting list for tickets these days? One/Two billion?

Posted by: caps1974 | April 21, 2010 1:42 PM | Report abuse

HA! I love that your ugly mug is featured front and center in the Mike Sellers interview on Redskins.com, too funny!

Posted by: Corvis777 | April 21, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Hey Corvis777, where can we find your picture online? Or are you a nobody and no one has seen fit to post your picture?

Posted by: Barno1 | April 21, 2010 1:54 PM | Report abuse

We got nearly 6,000 votes. Using a weighted confidence scoring system, we determined that the team's total expected wins was 9.4.

By Dan Steinberg | April 21, 2010; 1:07 PM ET

Funny because I don't recall that many people predicting double digit wins on the blogs (other than me). But I guess, oddly enough, people are more optimistic in the polls when their internet user names aren't attached to their predictions. Well, now I don't feel so bad for my crazy optimism a year ago...seems I was far from alone. (also recall the MD attorney general Doug Gansler predicted 12-4 with a straight face on CSN).

Posted by: Barno1 | April 21, 2010 1:58 PM | Report abuse

Completely new coaching staff, new players (some of whom have not even been identified)...Might as well be optimistic, because nobody KNOWS anything at this point, except that the games will be played. Anybody picking wins and losses at this point is just guessing. My prediction: 7-9, which I based on flipping a coin 16 times.
BTW, when a 4-win team in a 32-team league ends up with the eighth-hardest schedule, there's something wrong with the scheduling system.

Posted by: TomServo | April 21, 2010 2:20 PM | Report abuse

BTW, when a 4-win team in a 32-team league ends up with the eighth-hardest schedule, there's something wrong with the scheduling system.

Posted by: TomServo | April 21, 2010 2:20 PM | Report abuse

We have absolutely no idea how hard our schedule will be. It's amazing how so many people never learn the undeniable fact that it is impossible to predict how tough or easy an NFL schedule is 5 months before a season begins. Bet the folks who had the defending super bowl champion Steelers on the schedule last year thought that was going to be a tough game, instead they were very mediocre. Bet the folks who had the dolphins, ravens, and falcons on their schedule in 2008 thought those would be easy games--instead they all had double digit wins.

So please everyone stop with the "this schedule is the 8th toughest" nonsense... unless you're going to qualify it with "would be 8th toughest IF we played this same schedule a year ago"

Posted by: Barno1 | April 21, 2010 2:27 PM | Report abuse

The only game the Skins will lose will be the first one, and that is because the coach will wait until the second half to replace Mcnabb with JC who will lead us undefeated all the way to the Superbowl.

Posted by: isthatallthereis | April 21, 2010 2:39 PM | Report abuse

I expect 8-8 at a minimum. Shanny, Allen & McNabb vs. Zorn, Cerrato & Campbell? Please.

Posted by: shanks1 | April 21, 2010 2:49 PM | Report abuse

Another name of incurable optimism is delusional.

Posted by: 44fx290 | April 21, 2010 3:26 PM | Report abuse

Can we ignore this team until after the Stanley Cup parade, please? Thanks.

Also, I think there is a typo in your title. It reads: "Redskins fans are incurable optimists". I think you meant "Redskins fans are high on something."

Posted by: oldtimehockey | April 21, 2010 3:35 PM | Report abuse

oldtime:

What Stanley Cup parade? Where? Pittsburgh? Detroit? San Jose? Not here.

Posted by: HawksPride | April 21, 2010 3:39 PM | Report abuse

6-10. Book it.

Posted by: jpfterps | April 21, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Have to agree with the first post on here. They still havent addressed the O-line and one top rookie doesnt correct everything. Not convinced they take OL with the 4th pick anyways.

Receiving core is a joke. I love Santana, but hes getting past his prime. Kelly and Thomas are busts.

Same thing for the running backs. Portis - past his prime after taking too many hits. They than sign LJ and Parker? Neither are upgrades.

They did upgrade at QB, but at what cost? They probably would have botched the 2nd round pick they gave the Eagles anyways so I guess its a good move.

Secondary cant cover the long ball.

Linebackers are average. How much longer can London Fletcher dominate?

Orakpo was a solid pick last year - hopefully they use him on the line and not as a linebacker.

Best thing they can do is move buttersworth for anything they can get.

I say 4 wins again - maybe 5 with Shanny. I hope I'm wrong.

Posted by: capsfansince74 | April 21, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

thisguy and randy_hawkins. why don't you pessimistic butt buddies turn your fan cards in? you two are the type fans that piss me off. not saying you shouldn't be realistic, but no one absolutely no one knows how teams will fare the following year. only an idiot will take a schedule before a season starts and predict what the record will be without taking in account injuries of that team and around the league. thats why there is a SURPRISE team every year.

Posted by: clwalker1906 | April 21, 2010 5:01 PM | Report abuse

I don't wish to be cured of optimism.
I like Sonny.

Posted by: coastallp74 | April 21, 2010 6:13 PM | Report abuse

Jpfterps, you thought this team was going to win double digit wins going into last year, but you're predicting 6-10 this year. I don't get you. You really think we are at least 4 games worse than you thought we'd be going into last year?

Posted by: Barno1 | April 21, 2010 6:19 PM | Report abuse

@clwalker1906: you must be 14 years old max if you're not sick of deluding yourself about the Redskins. You think i'm going to root any less hard? No, I'm not. I'm just not going to delude myself for the 10th consecutive season into believing something that's not true. If that's what makes me a fan in your cool fanclub of perfect fandom, I'll gladly turn in my membership card to you. Not that I ever wanted one in the first place. I'll just be a regular fan, thank you very much. One with a brain.

Posted by: ThisGuy | April 21, 2010 10:45 PM | Report abuse

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