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D.C. mayor polls: Gray maintains advantage

Good news and bad news for Mayor Adrian M. Fenty in two new polls released Wednesday.

The heartening news: Both show Vincent Gray with a narrower lead in the mayoral race than was shown in the Washington Post poll released 10 days ago. The deflating news: Both still have Gray with a significant lead, and one shows Gray's lead growing since three weeks ago.

One, an automated telephone poll conducted from Aug. 30 to Sept. 1 by Public Policy Polling for Washington City Paper and WAMU-FM has Gray ahead of Fenty 50 percent to 39 percent among registered Democrats, with a 3.5 point error margin. The other, a live-caller poll of 492 likely Democratic primary voters conducted Tuesday by Clarus Research Group, has Gray ahead by seven points, 45 to 38, with a 4.4 point margin.

In a Clarus poll conducted Aug. 15 and 16, Gray held a five-point advantage over Fenty. "Vincent Gray has expanded his lead over Adrian Fenty since mid-August," said Clarus President Ron Faucheux in a release, with the caveat that "Election Day turnout is still the key factor."

The Post's poll, which contacted 780 registered Democrats over eight days in late August, had Gray up 17 points among likely voters.

The Clarus numbers, as do pretty much every other poll done on this race, show a "deep racial divide." And, as mentioned before on this blog, the demographics of the electorate is a key factor, given the racial split. The new Clarus poll pegs the electorate at 55 percent black, while the Clarus poll in August had black voters at 52 percent of the sample. The PPP survey, generally considered less reliable because it's a robocall, polled 56 percent black voters.

Clarus has published two turnout scenarios: With a 50 percent black electorate, "Gray's current margin over Fenty would narrow to 2 points, 43 percent to 41 percent -- making it a very tight race." But if black turnout rises to 60 percent or more -- 63 percent is what The Post's polling indicates -- "then Gray's lead would expand to 11 points, 47 percent to 36 percent."

By Mike DeBonis  |  September 8, 2010; 6:00 PM ET
Categories:  Adrian Fenty , DCision 2010 , The District , Vincent Gray  
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Next: DeMorning DeBonis: Sept. 9, 2010

Comments

Be gone Satan aka King Fenty!

Posted by: Ward4DC | September 8, 2010 6:34 PM | Report abuse

I am picking the lesser of two evils,you would rather a return of the 80's government I suppose?...

Posted by: adamblawrence | September 8, 2010 6:59 PM | Report abuse

Why anyone would vote for Gray baffles me - the man has no ideas and promises the world to voters. Fenty turned the city around and deserves another term.

Posted by: NoVAredsox | September 8, 2010 7:06 PM | Report abuse

This whole "back to the 80s and 90s" argument/scare tactic is so weak and pathetic. Marion Barry supported King Fenty in 2006 and, last I checked, we did NOT go back in time, the governement and the city moved on, even with that endorsement. The King tried that scam argument to scare people away from former Chairman Cropp in 2006. People, don't be fooled again!

Posted by: ssmd11 | September 8, 2010 7:17 PM | Report abuse

I will me vote for Gray.Fenty people came to my sister that live in Ward 8 and ask her to vote for Fenty and they will give her $100.00 dollar she them told them to get f##k out of her face. she vote for Gray

Posted by: ruckoneword | September 8, 2010 7:31 PM | Report abuse

Quick DeBonis! Anonymous, nearly unintelligible people are claiming Fenty is paying for votes! That's front-page material! Just apply that classic DeBonis journalistic integrity, call them "anonymous inside sources", and you're golden!

Posted by: asuka1 | September 8, 2010 8:37 PM | Report abuse

Quick asuka1 - disparage a Gray supporter's writing abilities and Debonis' reporting ethics.

Think of yourself as clever Fenty voter and you're golden.

Posted by: efavorite | September 8, 2010 9:25 PM | Report abuse

Wow! That's why Gray is ahead, yeah Fenty lost touch with these unintelligent Ward 8 people. Guest what! They vote too... Hopefully, we can build bridges and included everybody in this city despite your race, economic background or education.

Posted by: drfields | September 8, 2010 9:52 PM | Report abuse

NoVAredsox wrote:

"Why anyone would vote for Gray baffles me -the man has no ideas and promises the world to voters. Fenty turned the city around and deserves another term. "
-------------------------------------------

The funny thing about Fenty's "achievements" is that he didn't have a plan either when he campaigned the first time around. He read from a script which he flipped once elected, and then rode shotgun on plans that had been executed by the previous administration.

Fenty = Scrub = Former Mayor

Posted by: logosdesigns | September 8, 2010 10:24 PM | Report abuse

Fenty did not turn the city around. Mayor Williams did.

When Fenty ran for election 4 years ago, he was demonized by Cropp's camp as the person who would undo all of Mayor Williams' work. Guess what? Fenty won. Mayor Williams' plans continued [more or less]. The sky didn't fall.

I think it is irrational to say that Gray winning the election means that the city will go backwards. It just doesn't make sense. If anyone remembers what the council looked like back in the day when they were cursing and fighting compared to how it looks now would understand why people are supporting Gray.

Posted by: mamaspearl | September 8, 2010 10:40 PM | Report abuse

asuka1

Check out channel 7 news reports showing a young man picked up by the Fenty team and promised a job if he voted for Fenty.

Make fun of that.

Posted by: dccounselor72 | September 9, 2010 7:35 AM | Report abuse

Quick Asuka!. Writing on the blog is the voice of the people. I have noticed my own grammer slipping away on the blogs and e-mails, I think mostly because it is more like talking than writing. By focusing on grammatical errors, you miss the message of the words. But maybe that is the point. Everyone should blog! It is modern town square and what the people say matters!

Posted by: tacard1 | September 9, 2010 8:08 AM | Report abuse

Amazing isn't it how the Post managed to bury this double bad news for Fenty in a blog--I didn't see it in ANY Post news article though it might be the biggest local news of the day.

Posted by: BlanketyBlank | September 9, 2010 9:45 PM | Report abuse

Interesting how this story was buried. I think the vote buying allegations are real. I see the Ron Moten types out there intimidating Gray campaign volunteers. These hired goons are beyond shady and seem to be trolling the streets for anyone in need of a $100 bucks.

Posted by: PepperDr | September 10, 2010 9:08 AM | Report abuse

Fenty had his chance and blew it, let someone like Vince come in and try to straighten up Fenty's mess. Vince, you go boy, show them what you working with.(Mainly good sense)

Posted by: barbarashorter5 | September 15, 2010 1:52 PM | Report abuse

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