Economists: Recession to End This Year, But Unemployment Will Hit Nearly 10%
In the good-news/bad-news spirit of Good Friday comes this report from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of private economists out today: 86 percent of of them think that the recession will end in the second half of this year.
However, they said, unemployment -- which stands at 8.5 percent -- will keep rising into 2010.
The economists predicted unemployment will peak next year at 9.8 percent.
But, as always, remember this: The Labor Department does not count as unemployed those who have simply given up looking for work, so the actual number of unemployed is higher by some percentage.
"Real GDP contracted very sharply during the first quarter of this year and will continue to shrink, albeit more slowly in the second quarter before turning very modestly higher in the third and fourth quarters," the survey said.
The recession, which began in December 2007, is now in its 16th month. If the recession continues into next month, it will be the longest since the Great Depression.
April 10, 2009; 11:16 AM ET
Categories: The Ticker | Tags: recession, unemployment
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