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2.7%  Q1 GDP    4.57%  avg. 30-year mortgage     9.5%  Unemployment

Economists: Recession to End This Year, But Unemployment Will Hit Nearly 10%

In the good-news/bad-news spirit of Good Friday comes this report from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of private economists out today: 86 percent of of them think that the recession will end in the second half of this year.

However, they said, unemployment -- which stands at 8.5 percent -- will keep rising into 2010.

The economists predicted unemployment will peak next year at 9.8 percent.

But, as always, remember this: The Labor Department does not count as unemployed those who have simply given up looking for work, so the actual number of unemployed is higher by some percentage.

"Real GDP contracted very sharply during the first quarter of this year and will continue to shrink, albeit more slowly in the second quarter before turning very modestly higher in the third and fourth quarters," the survey said.

The recession, which began in December 2007, is now in its 16th month. If the recession continues into next month, it will be the longest since the Great Depression.

-- Frank Ahrens
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By Frank Ahrens  |  April 10, 2009; 11:16 AM ET
Categories:  The Ticker  | Tags: recession, unemployment  
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Interesting. The Florida jobless rate already exceeds 10% as do some other unemployment "hot spots" around the country. Mostly these are in non-union states where employers are protected by law from organizers and other liberals. I doubt that the US will actually recover from the Bush recession and move to a higher plateau until wages increase for the working class. All the gains in the past 28 years seems to have gone to the finance industry, who have squandered it while ripping off the rest of us.

Posted by: ianmac37 | April 13, 2009 8:01 AM | Report abuse

The previous comment is factually incorrect. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the highest unemployment rates in Michigan (12), South Carolina (11) and Oregon (10.8). Unionized industries (Electronics, Steel, Textiles, Automotive, etc.) have lost jobs faster than other industries. Yes, unions might temporarily protect their members from job loss but the cost is unemployment (raising labor costs and decreasing the incentive to hire) and making unionized firm less competitive. Yes, unions do help senior members get higher wages and keep there jobs but at a cost to the unemployed and to the public at large.

Posted by: econprofessir | April 13, 2009 9:58 AM | Report abuse

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