Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity
2.7%  Q1 GDP    4.57%  avg. 30-year mortgage     9.5%  Unemployment

Survey: Most Economists See Recession Ending This Year

A survey of economists released this morning shows that 74 percent believe that the recession, which began in December 2007, will end in the third quarter of this year.

Another 19 percent predicted the recession will end in the last quarter of this year and the remaining 7 percent believe it will linger until 2010, according to the National Association for Business Economics.

The recession will end when U.S. GDP returns to positive territory. It dropped 6.1 percent in the first quarter of this year and another 1.8 percent in the second quarter. The economists predict it will turn positive, barely, edging up 1.2 percent in the second half of this year.

Because unemployment is a lagging indicator, the economists say that joblessness will continue to rise even as the economy recovers. The consensus has unemployment averaging 9.1 percent this year, up from its 5.8 percent average of last year. (It currently stands at 8.9 percent.)

“While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing,” Chris Varvares, the group's president, said in a statement. “The survey found that business economists look for the recession to end soon, but that the economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines.

"Moreover, despite encouraging signs seen in the last several weeks, the NABE panel downgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, compared with the previous survey,” Varvares said.

The group surveyed 45 economists in late April and early May.

-- Frank Ahrens
Sign up to get The Ticker on Twitter

By Frank Ahrens  |  May 27, 2009; 11:33 AM ET
Categories:  The Ticker  | Tags: National Association for Business Economics, recession  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Home Sales Tick Up Slightly From March to April
Next: Moody's: U.S.'s 'Aaa' Credit Rating Is Stable -- For Now

Comments

How does a job seeker stand out from a crowd of millions in the current competitive market? Charismatic economic survivor William Uter has self-published an appropriate solution: The Career Value Book.

The job market is very competitive because of the high demand and low supply of employment opportunities. Applicants must try something new to avoid being overlooked. This self-help book teaches job seekers to better showcase their talent to increase chances of job placement. Uter explains this effective approach in The Career Value Book that shares his insight and experiences to assist other job seekers to:

- Develop visual portfolios to market skill sets

- Showcase talent beyond facts and figures

- Provide insight of the hiring process

For additional information, please visit www.careervaluebook.com.

Posted by: willuter | May 28, 2009 10:38 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2010 The Washington Post Company