It's Like Sticking Your Toe Into the Ocean and Being Surprised That Your Hair Is Still Dry
Brad DeLong is tired of people who assume that the poor economic performance of the past two quarters is an argument against, rather than for, the stimulus. He responds by going back to the original Council of Economic Advisers report laying out the argument for, and projected schedule of, stimulus spending:
Jared Bernstein and Christy Romer constructed extremely crude estimates of the delta-effect of the stimulus package on the economy by taking when they thought the different components of the $787 billion would be spent and how long it would then take for the government spending to have an impact on the economy. Their estimate is that we saw the effect of $0 (zero) (none) (nada) dollars of the stimulus package on the economy in the first quarter, that we saw the effects of only $14.5 billion in the second quarter, and that we are about to see the effects of $38.6 billion now in the third quarter as the effects of the package ramp up to their peak in the fall of 2010, when we will see $82.1 billion of stimulus spending hit the economy.
To say that what happened in the second quarter means that "the last few hundred billion dollars have had virtually no effect" is like sticking your toe into the ocean and pointing out that your hair is still dry...
Also, this post of Brad's made me laugh. Not only is it funny, but it's funny in a way that only Brad DeLong is funny.
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